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Effective design of agricultural policies requires an understanding of the drivers behind the evolution of the agricultural sector. This project builds an evolutionary economic model of the Belgian agricultural sector, as a testing ground for new policies. This agent-based model simulates the dairy, cow and pig sector. The model is calibrated to historical data of production and farm diversity during the period 2003 – 2013. Profit maximising agents cannot replicate the historical trends. When assuming heterogeneous behaviours, the actual evolution can be reproduced much more closely. The calibration reveals key behaviour variables. The evolution in the agricultural sector can only be explained when accounting for a resistance to change at farm level or at market level. However, this approach cannot determine the exact location of this resistance. The resistance to change can result from personal convictions of the farmer or from market rigidities and learning effects.

ispartof: pages:1-200 status: Published online

Deep geothermal energy appears to be currently on the edge of a take-off in Belgium. However, the actual emergence of this technology is subject to developments in legislation and incentives from regional governments. Different risk/return expectations across stages of the investment continuum exist and the financial structures that are employed at each stage may require different types of public support. In this context, the ALPI project aims at developing a geological-economic model to calculate the impact of different policy instruments on development of the Belgian geothermal energy sector. Due to the lack of underground information describing the Campine Basin, economic methods are used to deal with these large geological uncertainties.

Highlights •Biomass resource constraints impact the effectiveness of bioeconomy policies. •Bioeconomy policies may have an important impact on the sector structure in the long run, but the sector growth remains ultimately constrained by the availability of inputs. •Solutions to reduce the biomass constraint have to be included in innovation policy for the biobased economy.