Search

To assess whether having a pet in the home is a risk factor for community-acquired urinary tract infections associated with extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)- or AmpC β-lactamase (ACBL)- producing Enterobacterales.An unmatched case-control study was conducted between August 2015 and September 2017. Cases (n=141) were people with community-acquired urinary tract infection (UTI) caused by ESBL- or ACBL- producing Enterobacterales. Controls (n=525) were recruited from the community. A telephone questionnaire on pet ownership, and other factors was administered, and associations were assessed using logistic regression.Pet ownership was not associated with ESBL- or ACBL-producing Enterobacterales related human UTIs. A positive association was observed for recent antimicrobial treatment, travel to Asia in the previous year, and a doctor's visit in the previous six months. Among isolates with an ESBL-/ACBL-producing phenotype 126/134 (94%) were Escherichia coli, with sequence type (ST) 131 being the most common (47/126).Companion animals in the home were not found to be associated with ESBL- or ACBL-producing Enterobacterales related community-acquired UTI in New Zealand. Risk factors included overseas travel, recent antibiotic use, and doctor visits.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) are rare in high-income countries; however, in Aotearoa New Zealand ARF and RHD disproportionately affect Indigenous Māori and Pacific Peoples. This narrative review explores the evidence regarding non-surgical management of patients with clinically significant valve disease or heart failure due to RHD.Medline, EMBASE and Scopus databases were searched, and additional publications were identified through cross-referencing. Included were 28 publications from 1980 onwards.Of the available interventions, improved anticoagulation management and a national RHD register could improve RHD outcomes in New Zealand. Where community pharmacy anticoagulant management services (CPAMS) are available good anticoagulation control can be achieved with a time in the therapeutic range (TTR) of more than 70%, which is above the internationally recommended level of 60%. The use of pharmacists in anticoagulation control is cost-effective, acceptable to patients, pharmacists, and primary care practitioners. There is a lack of local data available to fully assess other interventions; including optimal therapy for heart failure, equitable access to specialist RHD care, prevention, and management of endocarditis.As RHD continues to disproportionately affect Indigenous and minority groups, pro-equity tertiary prevention interventions should be fully evaluated to ensure they are reducing disease burden and improving outcomes in patients with RHD.

Public health risks associated with the intensification of dairy farming are an emerging concern. Dairy cattle are a reservoir for a number of pathogens that can cause human illness. This study examined the spatial distribution of dairy cattle density and explored temporal patterns of human campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis notifications in New Zealand from 1997 to 2015. Maps of dairy cattle density were produced, and temporal patterns of disease rates were assessed for urban versus rural areas and for areas with different dairy cattle densities using descriptive temporal analyses. Campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis rates displayed strong seasonal patterns, with highest rates in spring in rural areas and, for campylobacteriosis, summer in urban areas. Increases in rural cases often preceded increases in urban cases. Furthermore, disease rates in areas with higher dairy cattle densities tended to peak before areas with low densities or no dairy cattle. Infected dairy calves may be a direct or indirect source of campylobacteriosis or cryptosporidiosis infection in humans through environmental or occupational exposure routes, including contact with animals or feces, recreational contact with contaminated waterways, and consumption of untreated drinking water. These results have public health implications for populations living, working, or recreating in proximity to dairy farms.

BACKGROUND In Aotearoa New Zealand, 90% of cases with notified leptospirosis (a zoonotic bacterial disease) have been men working in agricultural industries. However, since 2008, the epidemiology of notified cases has gradually changed i.e., more women are affected, there are more cases associated with occupations traditionally not considered high-risk in New Zealand, infecting serovars have changed and many patients suffer long after infection. We hypothesise that there is a shift in leptospirosis transmission patterns with a significant burden on affected patients and their families. OBJECTIVE To describe the protocols used to conduct: 1) a nationwide case-control study to update leptospirosis risk factors; and 2) follow-up studies to assess the burden and sources of leptospirosis in New Zealand. METHODS The study used a mixed methods approach, comprising a case-control study, and four sub-studies that involved cases only. Cases were recruited nationwide, and controls were frequency matched by sex and rurality. All participants were administered a case-control questionnaire (Study 1), with cases being interviewed again at least 6 months after the initial survey (Study 2). A subset of cases from high-risk occupations i.e., farmers and abattoir workers, were further engaged in a semi-structured interview (Study 3). Some cases with regular animal exposure had their in-contact animals (livestock for blood and urine and wildlife for kidney) and environment (soil, mud, and water) sampled (Study 4). Patients from selected health clinics suspected of leptospirosis also had blood and urine samples taken (Study 5). Study 4 and 5 blood samples were tested with the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) to test for antibody titres against Leptospira serovars Hardjo type bovis, Ballum, Tarassovi, Pomona and Copenhageni. All blood, urine and environmental samples were also tested with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis for the detection of pathogenic Leptospira DNA. RESULTS Participants were recruited between 22 July 2019 and 31 January 2022 and data collection for the study has concluded. Ninety-six cases (25 July 2019 to 13 April 2022) and 300 controls (19 October 2019 to 26 January 2022) were recruited and interviewed for the case control study, 92 cases participated in the follow-up interviews (9 July 2020 to 25 October 2022), 13 cases participated in the semi-structured interviews (26 January 2021 to 19 January 2022) and 4 cases had their in-contact animals and environment sampled (28 October 2020 and 29 July 2021). Data analysis for all studies has concluded, and the specific results of each study will be published as individual manuscripts. One manuscript each is being drafted for study 1 and study 2 and 2 manuscripts have been drafted for review for study 3. CONCLUSIONS The methods used in this study may provide a basis for future epidemiological studies for infectious disease.

The reported rate of legionellosis is increasing in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) with most cases community-acquired, sporadic (non-outbreak) and without an identifiable source. This analysis used two datasets to describe the environmental sources that contribute to Legionella in NZ, based on linkages with outbreaks and sporadic clinical cases, and analysis of environmental testing data. These findings highlight the need for enhanced environmental investigation of clinical cases and outbreaks. There is also a need for systematic surveillance testing of high-risk source environments to support more rigorous controls to prevent legionellosis.

Background Group A Streptococcus (GAS) causes superficial pharyngitis and skin infections as well as serious autoimmune sequelae such as acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and subsequent rheumatic heart disease. ARF pathogenesis remains poorly understood. Immune priming by repeated GAS infections is thought to trigger ARF, and there is growing evidence for the role of skin infections in this process. Methods We utilized our recently developed 8-plex immunoassay, comprising antigens used in clinical serology for diagnosis of ARF (SLO, DNase B, SpnA), and 5 conserved putative GAS vaccine antigens (Spy0843, SCPA, SpyCEP, SpyAD, Group A carbohydrate), to characterize antibody responses in sera from New Zealand children with a range of clinically diagnosed GAS disease: ARF (n = 79), GAS-positive pharyngitis (n = 94), GAS-positive skin infection (n = 51), and matched healthy controls (n = 90). Results The magnitude and breadth of antibodies in ARF was very high, giving rise to a distinct serological profile. An average of 6.5 antigen-specific reactivities per individual was observed in ARF, compared to 4.2 in skin infections and 3.3 in pharyngitis. Conclusions ARF patients have a unique serological profile, which may be the result of repeated precursor pharyngitis and skin infections that progressively boost antibody breadth and magnitude.

International audience; There is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than have mitigation strategies throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines that offer high protection against severe forms of COVID-19, and increasing vaccination coverage, policy makers have had to reassess the trade-offs between different options. The desirability and feasibility of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other strategies should also be re-evaluated from the perspective of different fields, including epidemiology, public health, and economics. To end the pandemic as soon as possible-be it through elimination or reaching an acceptable endemic level-several key topics have emerged centring around coordination, both locally and internationally, and vaccine distribution. Without coordination it is difficult if not impossible to sustain elimination, which is particularly relevant in highly connected regions, such as Europe. Regarding vaccination, concerns remain with respect to equitable distribution, and the risk of the emergence of new variants of concern. Looking forward, it is crucial to overcome the dichotomy between elimination and mitigation, and to jointly define a long-term objective that can accommodate different political and societal realities.

Background Recent studies linking low levels of nitrate in drinking water to colorectal cancer have raised public concerns over nitrate contamination. The aim of this study was to analyze the media discourse on the potential human health hazard of nitrates in drinking water in a high-income country with a large livestock industry: New Zealand (NZ). Methods Searches of media sources (“major newspapers”) held by the Factiva database for the NZ setting in the five-year period 17 December 2016 to 20 December 2021. Results The largest number of media items was observed for 2017 (n = 108), the year of a NZ general election, with a notable decrease in 2020 (n = 20) that was likely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which dominated health media. However, the percentage of these media items with a health focus steadily increased over time, from 11.1% of all articles in 2017 to 51.2% in 2021. The most commonly mentioned health hazard was colorectal cancer, followed by methemoglobinemia. The temporal pattern of media items suggests that the release of scientific studies and scholarly blogs was associated with the publication of subsequent media items. Major stakeholders involved in the discourse included representatives of local and central government, environmental and recreational interest groups, researchers, local residents, agricultural interest groups, and health organizations. Māori (Indigenous New Zealanders) values or perspectives were rarely mentioned. Conclusions Analysis of major newspapers for a five-year period indicated that a wide range of expert comment and opinions were made available to the public and policy makers on the issue of nitrates in water. While many different stakeholder views were captured in the media discourse, there is scope for the media to better report the views of Māori on this topic. There is also a need for articles detailing the health issues to also refer to the environmental, recreational, and cultural aspects of protecting water quality to ensure that the public, policy makers, and regulators are aware of co-benefits.

A 2016 drinking water-related campylobacteriosis outbreak in Aotearoa New Zealand made much of an entire town sick leading to reforms colloquially called "Three Waters", which aims to improve the management and delivery of waste, storm and drinking water systems. Public discourse on the Three Waters reforms has been dominated by anti-co-governance rhetoric, concerns around privatisation and loss of local control and alternative less comprehensive reform models. This debate has drowned out the fundamental problem statement justifying the reforms, that is, the management of drinking water resources is currently: 1) demonstrably inadequate to protect public health and promote health equity; and 2) economically inefficient. We discuss four areas where the proposed Three Waters reforms are likely to address current and future challenges and improve public health. We conclude by outlining four areas of remaining contention.

Summary Background As with many Indigenous populations internationally, Māori in New Zealand suffer health inequity. We aimed to assess the rate of fall injuries at home with and without home modifications in houses with Māori occupants. Methods We did a single-blind randomised controlled trial in the Wellington and Taranaki regions of New Zealand and enrolled owner-occupied households with at least one Māori occupant. Only households who stated they intended to live at that address for the subsequent 3 years were eligible for participation. We randomly assigned (1:1) households to either the intervention group, who received home modifications (handrails for outside steps and internal stairs, grab rails for bathrooms, outside lighting, repairs to window catches, high-visibility and slip-resistant edging for outside steps, fixing of lifted edges of carpets and mats, non-slip bath mats, and slip-resistant surfacing for outside areas such as decks) immediately, or the control group, who received the modifications 3 years later. Data on home injuries were obtained from the Accident Compensation Corporation and coded by study team members, who were masked to study group allocation. The primary outcome was the rate of medically treated fall injuries at home per household per year, analysed according to intention to treat. This Māori Home Injury Prevention Intervention (MHIPI) trial is now completed, and is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12613000148774. Findings Between Sept 3, 2013, and Oct 1, 2014, 824 households were assessed for eligibility and 254 were enrolled, of which 126 (50%) were assigned to the intervention group and 128 (50%) were assigned to the control group. After adjustment for previous falls and geographical region, there was an estimated 31% reduction in the rate of fall injuries at home per year exposed to the intervention compared with households in the control group (adjusted relative rate 0·69 [95% CI 0·47–1·00]). Interpretation Low-cost home modifications and repairs can be an effective means to reduce injury disparities. The high prevalence of modifiable safety issues in Māori homes merits considerable policy and community effort. Funding Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Objectives To identify COVID‐19 quarantine system failures in Australia and New Zealand. Design, setting, participants Observational epidemiological study of travellers in managed quarantine in Australia and New Zealand, to 15 June 2021. Main outcome measures Number of quarantine system failures, and failure with respect to numbers of travellers and SARS‐CoV‐2‐positive travellers. Results We identified 22 quarantine system failures in Australia and ten in New Zealand to 15 June 2021. One failure initiated a COVID‐19 outbreak that caused more than 800 deaths (the Victorian “second wave”); nine lockdowns were linked with quarantine system failures. The failure risk was estimated to be 5.0 failures per 100 000 travellers passing through quarantine and 6.1 (95% CI, 4.0–8.3) failures per 1000 SARS‐CoV‐2‐positive travellers. The risk per 1000 SARS‐CoV‐2‐positive travellers was higher in New Zealand than Australia (relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0–4.2). Conclusions Quarantine system failures can be costly in terms of lives and economic impact, including lockdowns. Our findings indicate that infection control in quarantine systems in Australia and New Zealand should be improved, including vaccination of quarantine workers and incoming travellers, or that alternatives to hotel‐based quarantine should be developed.

The number of sugar-sweetened beverages consumed per day has been associated with an increased risk of acute rheumatic fever, an autoimmune disease triggered by superficial Streptococcus pyogenes infection. To explore if there could be a biological basis for this association, we used a mouse model of S. pyogenes nasopharyngeal colonisation combined with a dietary intervention. We observed an increased bacterial load in the nasopharynx of mice receiving sucrose drinking water post-infection, suggesting that high sucrose intake promotes S. pyogenes growth and/or survival. This provides new insight into the potential biological basis behind the association seen in humans.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain an inequitable cause of avoidable suffering and early death in many countries, including among Indigenous Māori and Pacific populations in New Zealand. There is a lack of robust evidence on interventions to prevent ARF. This study aimed to identify modifiable risk factors, with the goal of producing evidence to support policies and programs to decrease rates of ARF.A case-control study was undertaken in New Zealand using hospitalised, first episode ARF cases meeting a standard case-definition. Population controls (ratio of 3:1) were matched by age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, location, sex, and recruitment month. A comprehensive, pre-tested questionnaire was administered face-to-face by trained interviewers.The study included 124 cases and 372 controls. Multivariable analysis identified strong associations between ARF and household crowding (OR 3·88; 95%CI 1·68-8·98) and barriers to accessing primary health care (OR 2·07; 95% CI 1·08-4·00), as well as a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (OR 2·00; 1·13-3·54). There was a marked five-fold higher ARF risk for those with a family history of ARF (OR 4·97; 95% CI 2·53-9·77). ARF risk was elevated following self-reported skin infection (aOR 2·53; 1·44-4·42) and sore throat (aOR 2·33; 1·49-3·62).These globally relevant findings direct attention to the critical importance of household crowding and access to primary health care as strong modifiable causal factors in the development of ARF. They also support a greater focus on the role of managing skin infections in ARF prevention.This research was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC) Rheumatic Fever Research Partnership (supported by the New Zealand Ministry of Health, Te Puni Kōkiri, Cure Kids, Heart Foundation, and HRC) award number 13/959.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and its sequela rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remain significant causes of morbidity and mortality. In New Zealand, ARF almost exclusively affects Indigenous Māori and Pacific children. This narrative review aims to present secondary interventions to improve early and accurate diagnosis of ARF and RHD, in order to minimise disease progression in New Zealand. Medline, EMBASE and Scopus databases were searched as well as other electronic publications. Included were 56 publications from 1980 onwards. Diagnosing ARF and RHD as early as possible is central to reducing disease progression. Recent identification of specific ARF biomarkers offer the opportunity to aid initial diagnosis and portable echocardiography has the potential to detect undiagnosed RHD in high-risk areas. However, further research into the benefits and risks to children with subclinical RHD is necessary, as well as an economic evaluation.

The 2021 Global Health Security (GHS) Index Report was published on 8 December 2021. With an average country score of 38.9 out of a possible 100 points, global scores are essentially unchanged from 2019. Despite experience with the COVID-19 pandemic, no country is adequately prepared for future biological threats. No country scored above 75.9 and the scores of the bottom 11 States have all fallen since 2019. Aotearoa New Zealand, however, has substantially improved its country score, rising to 13th in the world at 62.5/100. This gain is partly driven by consolidation of capabilities developed and deployed in response to COVID-19. This is promising progress, but a lot more can be done to ensure legacy benefits from the pandemic response, notably through the proposed restructuring of the health system (Pae Ora (Healthy Futures) Bill). In this viewpoint article, we discuss this recent further development of the GHS Index, highlight the global results for 2021, delve into New Zealand's progress, and discuss what more is needed.

Group A streptococcal (GAS) infections can trigger an immune-mediated response resulting in acute rheumatic fever (ARF). The role of social and environmental risk factors for GAS pharyngitis and skin infections are not well understood. This study aimed to identify factors associated with GAS pharyngitis and skin infections, and to determine if these are the same as those for ARF.A case-control study, including 733 children aged 5-14 years, was undertaken between March 2018 and October 2019 in Auckland, New Zealand. Healthy controls (Multivariable analysis identified strong associations between barriers to accessing primary healthcare and having GAS pharyngitis (adjusted OR 3·3; 95% CI 1·8-6·0), GAS carriage (aOR 2·9; 95% CI 1·5-6·0) or a GAS skin infection (aOR 3·5; 95% CI 1·6-7·6). Children who had GAS skin infections were more likely than all other groups to report living in a crowded home (aOR 1·9; 95% CI 1·0-3·4), have Māori or Pacific grandparents (aOR 3·0; 95% CI 1·2-7·6), a family history of ARF (aOR 2·2; 95% CI 1·1-4·3), or having a previous diagnosis of eczema (aOR 3·9; 95% CI 2·2-6·9).Reducing barriers to accessing primary healthcare (including financial restrictions, the inability to book an appointment, lack of transport, and lack of childcare for other children) to treat GAS pharyngitis and skin infections could potentially reduce these infections and lead to a reduction in their sequelae, including ARF. These strategies should be co-designed and culturally appropriate for the communities being served and carefully evaluated.This work was supported by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC), award number 16/005.

In August 2016, a large waterborne campylobacteriosis outbreak occurred in Havelock North, New Zealand. This analysis describes the clinical complications of cases admitted to hospital as a result of acute infection, identifies risk factors for hospitalisation and compares deaths between hospitalised and non-hospitalised cases. Hospital admissions with post-infectious sequelae were excluded as they are the subject of a separate analysis.A case series analysis was undertaken by reviewing the electronic medical records of 933 residents of Hawke's Bay District Health Board with probable and confirmed campylobacteriosis linked to the Havelock North Campylobacter outbreak.A total of 67 hospital admissions, among 58 individuals, are described. Pre-existing comorbidity and advanced age were significant risk factors for hospital admission in univariate analysis. Dehydration (74.1%), electrolyte imbalance (35.8%) and acute kidney injury (27.6%) were common among hospitalised cases. The proportion of hospitalised cases that died within one year was significantly higher when compared to deaths among non-hospitalised cases (OR 5.0, 95% CI: 2.3-10.7), although this trend was not statistically significant after adjusting for age and comorbidity (OR 2.3, 95% CI: 0.96-5.3).This study highlights the serious health impacts that occurred from a campylobacteriosis outbreak of this magnitude.

ObjectivesIn August 2016, Campylobacter spp contaminated an untreated reticulated water supply resulting in a large-scale gastroenteritis outbreak affecting an estimated 8320 people. We aimed to determine the incidence of probable reactive arthritis (ReA) cases in individuals with culture-confirmed campylobacteriosis (CC), self-reported probable campylobacteriosis (PC) and those reporting no diarrhoea (ND).DesignWe conducted a retrospective cohort study to identify incidence of probable ReA cases. We identified cases with new ReA symptoms using an adapted acute ReA (AReA) telephone questionnaire. Those reporting ≥1 symptom underwent a telephone interview with the study rheumatologist. Probable ReA was defined as spontaneous onset of pain suggestive of inflammatory arthritis in ≥1 previously asymptomatic joint for ≥3 days occurring ≤12 weeks after outbreak onset.SettingPopulation-based epidemiological study in Havelock North, New Zealand.ParticipantsWe enrolled notified CC cases with gastroenteritis symptom onsets 5 August 2016–6 September 2016 and conducted a telephone survey of households supplied by the contaminated water source to enrol PC and ND cases.ResultsOne hundred and six (47.3%) CC, 47 (32.6%) PC and 113 (34.3%) ND cases completed the AReA telephone questionnaire. Of those reporting ≥1 new ReA symptom, 45 (75.0%) CC, 13 (68.4%) PC and 14 (82.4%) ND cases completed the rheumatologist telephone interview. Nineteen CC, 4 PC and 2 ND cases developed probable ReA, resulting in minimum incidences of 8.5%, 2.8% and 0.6% and maximum incidences of 23.9%, 12.4% and 2.15%.DiscussionWe describe high probable ReA incidences among gastroenteritis case types during a very large Campylobacter gastroenteritis outbreak using a resource-efficient method that is feasible to employ in future outbreaks.

Public health lessons from one pandemic become the planning assumptions for the next one. Aotearoa New Zealand’s 2017 pandemic plan was derived from past experience of influenza. When Covid-19 emer...

Rheumatic fever is a serious post-infectious sequela of group A Streptococcus (GAS). Prior GAS exposures were mapped in sera using a large panel of M-type specific peptides. Rheumatic fever patients had serological evidence of significantly more GAS exposures than matched controls suggesting immune priming by repeat infections contributes to pathogenesis.

Background Six thousand children are hospitalized each year in New Zealand with housing sensitive conditions, and 86.2% of these children are rehospitalized during childhood. The Healthy Homes Initiative, set up by the Ministry of Health, and implemented in Wellington through Well Homes, carries out housing assessments and delivers a range of housing interventions. Method Housing assessments were carried out by trained community workers. Philanthropic funding was received for the interventions through a local charitable trust. Results Well Homes saw 895 families. Mold in the home was the most commonly recorded area of poor housing quality, in 836 homes (93%). Partial or complete lack of insulation was also common, with 452 records (51%) having a documented need for further assessment and either an upgrade or full installation. Eighty-three percent of homes had insufficient sources of heating. A total of 5,537 interventions were delivered. Bedding, heaters, and draft stopping were delivered over 90% of the time. In contrast, insulation and carpets were only delivered 40% of the time. Interventions were least likely to be delivered in private rental housing. Discussion Targeted interventions using social partnerships can deliver housing improvements for relatively little health spending. Well Homes provides immediate and practical interventions, education, connection with social agencies, and advocacy for more substantial structural home improvements to help families keep their home warmer, drier, and healthier. This approach will be strengthened when combined with a new regulatory framework to raise the standards of private rental housing.

There has been no local transmission of arbovirus disease recorded in New Zealand to date. However, in the past two decades, there have been increasing numbers of overseas-acquired cases of arbovirus infections in New Zealand, mainly dengue, Zika, chikungunya and Ross River viruses. The repeated introduction of these viruses to the immunologically naïve New Zealand population through viraemic travellers represents a potential risk for local transmission by resident or new mosquito vectors. This study assessed the extent to which these imported arbovirus disease cases used the bite-avoidance measures recommended by the New Zealand Ministry of Health between 2001–2017. The majority of notified cases reported making little effort to avoid mosquito bites even during high-risk periods and outbreaks. This suggests that the infection of New Zealand travellers might be due to underestimation or unawareness of the risk of travel-related mosquito-borne diseases. New Zealand travellers to endemic or epidemic areas, mainly in the Asia-Pacific region, should be informed about ongoing risks according to season and epidemic activity at the destination and updated on the latest disease situation and new trends. This would reduce the likelihood of pathogen introduction and, therefore, local transmission of arbovirus infection in New Zealand.

Aims: We aimed to compare COVID-19 control measures, epidemiological characteristics and economic performance measures in two high-income island nations with small populations, favorable border control options, and relatively good outcomes: Iceland and New Zealand (NZ). Methods: We examined peer-reviewed journal articles, official websites, reports, media releases and press articles for data on pandemic preparedness and COVID-19 public health responses from 1 January 2020 to 1 June 2022 in Iceland and NZ. We calculated epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as measures of economic performance. Results: Both nations had the lowest excess mortality in the OECD from the start of the pandemic up to June 2022. Iceland pursued a mitigation strategy, never used lockdowns or officially closed its border to foreign nationals, and instead relied on extensive testing and contact tracing early in the pandemic. Meanwhile, NZ pursued an elimination strategy, used a strict national lockdown to stop transmission, and closed its international border to everyone except citizens and permanent residents going through quarantine and testing. Iceland experienced a larger decrease in gross domestic product in 2020 (relative to 2019) than NZ (–8·27% vs. –1·22%, respectively). In late 2021, NZ announced a shift to a suppression strategy and in 2022 began to reopen its border in stages, while Iceland ended all public restrictions on 25 February 2022. Conclusions: Many of Iceland’s and NZ’s pandemic control measures appeared successful and features of the responses in both countries could potentially be adopted by other jurisdictions to address future disease outbreaks and pandemic threats.

Key messagesRisk assessment for children has been a polarising issue during the Covid-19 pandemic. Governments around the world are preparing to ‘open up’ before risks to children are fully quantified, with unknown implications for their long-term health.Applying the Precautionary Principle to child health requires decision makers to 1) take preventive action until risks are better understood; 2) ensure that the burden of proof rests with proponents of risk; 3) explore alternatives to the risk; and 4) use participatory approaches to decision-making.Policies relating to children must be centred on the rights and wellbeing of children. We provide a framework for comprehensive Health Impact Assessments to ensure that direct and indirect impacts upon children are taken into account in major policy decisions.Elimination strategies offer an integrated approach to the protection of children’s wellbeing, the wellbeing of the population as a whole, and health equity. Where countries are transitioning away from elimination, a tight suppression approach is preferable to loose suppression or mitigation.

Legionnaires' disease (LD) (

In 2020, we developed a public health decision-support model for mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Australia and New Zealand. Having demonstrated its capacity to describe disease progression patterns during both countries' first waves of infections, we describe its utilisation in Victoria in underpinning the State Government's then 'RoadMap to Reopening'.Key aspects of population demographics, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism, timing, and effect of non-pharmaceutical public health policies responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries were represented in an agent-based model. We considered scenarios related to the imposition and removal of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the estimated progression of SARS-CoV-2 infections.Wave 1 results suggested elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was possible in both countries given sustained public adherence to social restrictions beyond 60 days' duration. However, under scenarios of decaying adherence to restrictions, a second wave of infections (Wave 2) was predicted in Australia. In Victoria's second wave, we estimated in early September 2020 that a rolling 14-day average of5 new cases per day was achievable on or around 26 October. Victoria recorded a 14-day rolling average of 4.6 cases per day on 25 October.Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 transmission represented in faithfully constructed agent-based models can be replicated in the real world.Agent-based public health policy models can be helpful to support decision-making in novel and complex unfolding public health crises.

BackgroundAcute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a serious sequela of Group A Streptococcus (GAS) infection associated with significant global mortality. Pathogenesis remains poorly understood, with the current prevailing hypothesis based on molecular mimicry and the notion that antibodies generated in response to GAS infection cross-react with cardiac proteins such as myosin. Contemporary investigations of the broader autoantibody response in ARF are needed to both inform pathogenesis models and identify new biomarkers for the disease.MethodsThis study has utilised a multi-platform approach to profile circulating autoantibodies in ARF. Sera from patients with ARF, matched healthy controls and patients with uncomplicated GAS pharyngitis were initially analysed for autoreactivity using high content protein arrays (Protoarray, 9000 autoantigens), and further explored using a second protein array platform (HuProt Array, 16,000 autoantigens) and 2-D gel electrophoresis of heart tissue combined with mass spectrometry. Selected autoantigens were orthogonally validated using conventional immunoassays with sera from an ARF case-control study (n=79 cases and n=89 matched healthy controls) and a related study of GAS pharyngitis (n=39) conducted in New Zealand.ResultsGlobal analysis of the protein array data showed an increase in total autoantigen reactivity in ARF patients compared with controls, as well as marked heterogeneity in the autoantibody profiles between ARF patients. Autoantigens previously implicated in ARF pathogenesis, such as myosin and collagens were detected, as were novel candidates. Disease pathway analysis revealed several autoantigens within pathways linked to arthritic and myocardial disease. Orthogonal validation of three novel autoantigens (PTPN2, DMD and ANXA6) showed significant elevation of serum antibodies in ARF (p < 0.05), and further highlighted heterogeneity with patients reactive to different combinations of the three antigens.ConclusionsThe broad yet heterogenous elevation of autoantibodies observed suggests epitope spreading, and an expansion of the autoantibody repertoire, likely plays a key role in ARF pathogenesis and disease progression. Multiple autoantigens may be needed as diagnostic biomarkers to capture this heterogeneity.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Aotearoa New Zealand adopted a clear 'elimination strategy', which has (up to June 2021) been very successful in both health and economic terms compared to other OECD countries. Nevertheless, the pandemic response has still been a very major shock to the New Zealand health system. This issue of the New Zealand Medical Journal has 14 new pandemic-related articles. Some of this work can help inform vaccination prioritisation decisions and inform preparations of primary and secondary care services and social services for any future raising of levels in the pandemic Alert Level system. Particularly strong themes are around the value (and challenges) of telehealth services, and also the need for responses throughout the health system to ensure health equity and support for the most vulnerable citizens.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a serious post-infectious immune sequelae of Group A streptococcus (GAS). Pathogenesis remains poorly understood, including the events associated with collagen autoantibody generation. GAS express streptococcal collagen-like proteins (Scl) that contain a collagenous domain resembling human collagen. Here, the relationship between antibody reactivity to GAS Scl proteins and human collagen in ARF was investigated. Serum IgG specific for a representative Scl protein (Scl1.1) together with collagen-I and collagen-IV mimetic peptides were quantified in ARF patients (n = 36) and healthy matched controls (n = 36). Reactivity to Scl1.1 was significantly elevated in ARF compared to controls (P < 0.0001) and this was mapped to the collagen-like region of the protein, rather than the N-terminal non-collagenous region. Reactivity to collagen-1 and collagen-IV peptides was also significantly elevated in ARF cases (P < 0.001). However, there was no correlation between Scl1.1 and collagen peptide antibody binding, and hierarchical clustering of ARF cases by IgG reactivity showed two distinct clusters, with Scl1.1 antigens in one and collagen peptides in the other, demonstrating that collagen autoantibodies are not immunologically related to those targeting Scl1.1. Thus, anti-collagen antibodies in ARF appear to be generated as part of the autoreactivity process, independent of any mimicry with GAS collagen-like proteins.

Objectives Rates of acute rheumatic fever, a sequelae of group A Streptococcal (GAS) infection, remain unacceptably high in Indigenous Māori and Pacific children in New Zealand. This prospective study aimed to describe GAS antibody titres in healthy children (5–14 years) by ethnicity, and to determine how paired titres vary with GAS culture positive and negative pharyngitis, and GAS skin infections. Methods Analysis included 887 children (32% Māori, 36% Pacific, 33% European/Other) from Auckland, New Zealand. Cases comprise 772 children who had a sore throat or skin infection, which resulted in a swab taken for culture. Healthy controls were asymptomatic (N = 154) and matched by age, ethnicity and region. All participants had a serum sample, with a second sample collected from cases only. Sera were analysed for anti-streptolysin O (ASO) and anti-DNase-B (ADB) antibodies. Results Healthy Māori and Pacific children had higher GAS antibody titres than healthy European/Other children. Children with GAS-positive sore throat had the highest mean ASO titres and children with GAS-positive skin infection had the highest mean ADB titres. When a two-fold increase or an upper limit of normal cut-off (ASO 450 IU/ml, ADB 400 U/ml) was applied to titres from children with GAS-positive sore throat, 62.1% were classified as having serologically confirmed GAS pharyngitis and 37.9% had GAS detected without serological response. Conclusions Elevated ASO titres were associated with GAS pharyngitis and elevated ADB titres were associated with GAS skin infections in New Zealand children. Higher ASO/ADB titres in healthy Māori and Pacific children could indicate a greater prior exposure to GAS infections.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and chronic rheumatic heart disease (RHD) are autoimmune sequelae of a Group A streptococcal infection with significant global mortality and poorly understood pathogenesis. Immunoglobulin and complement deposition were observed in ARF/RHD valve tissue over 50 years ago, yet contemporary investigations have been lacking. This study applied systems immunology to investigate the relationships between the complement system and immunoglobulin in ARF. Patients were stratified by C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration into high (≥10 μg mL-1 ) and low (

Background Severe influenza illness is presumed more common in adults with chronic medical conditions (CMCs), but evidence is sparse and often combined into broad CMC categories. Methods Residents (aged 18–80 years) of Central and South Auckland hospitalized for World Health Organization-defined severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) (2012–2015) underwent influenza virus polymerase chain reaction testing. The CMC statuses for Auckland residents were modeled using hospitalization International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes, pharmaceutical claims, and laboratory results. Population-level influenza rates in adults with congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, diabetes mellitus (DM), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were calculated by Poisson regression stratified by age and adjusted for ethnicity. Results Among 891 276 adults, 2435 influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations occurred. Rates were significantly higher in those with CMCs compared with those without the respective CMC, except for older adults with DM or those aged Conclusions Our findings support the increased risk of severe, laboratory-confirmed influenza disease among adults with specific CMCs compared with those without these conditions.

Background Pregnant women are prioritized for seasonal influenza vaccination, but the evidence on the risk of influenza during pregnancy that is used to inform these policies is limited. Methods Individual-level administrative data sets and active surveillance data were joined to estimate influenza-associated hospitalization and outpatient visit rates by pregnancy, postpartum, and trimester status. Results During 2012-2015, 46 of 260 (17.7%) influenza-confirmed hospitalizations for acute respiratory infection and 13 of 294 (4.4%) influenza-confirmed outpatient visits were among pregnant and postpartum women. Pregnant and postpartum women experienced higher rates of influenza-associated hospitalization than nonpregnant women overall (rate ratio [RR], 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5-4.7) and by trimester (first, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.2-5.4]; second, 3.9 [95% CI, 2.4-6.3]; and third, 4.8 [95% CI, 3.0-7.7]); the RR for the postpartum period was 0.7 (95% CI, 3.0-7.7). Influenza A viruses were associated with an increased risk (RR for 2009 pandemic influenza A[H1N1] virus, 5.3 [95% CI, 3.2-8.7]; RR for influenza A(H3N2) virus, 3.0 [95% CI, 1.8-5.0]), but influenza B virus was not (RR, 1.8; 95% CI, .7-4.6). Influenza-associated hospitalization rates in pregnancy were significantly higher for Māori women (RR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.3-8.4), compared with women of European or other ethnicity. Similar risks for influenza-confirmed outpatient visits were not observed. Conclusion Seasonal influenza poses higher risks of hospitalization among pregnant women in all trimesters, compared with nonpregnant women. Hospitalization rates vary by influenza virus type and ethnicity among pregnant women.

Legionellosis is a collective term used for disease caused by Legionella species which result in community and hospital acquired pneumonia worldwide. The aim of this analysis was to describe the epidemiology of legionellosis hospitalisations in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) over a 21-year period and quantify the health care costs.This study combined national legionellosis notification and hospital discharge data that were linked via the National Health Index (NHI) to provide a more complete dataset of hospitalised cases. The direct cost of hospital care was estimated by multiplying the diagnosis-related group cost-weight by the national price and inflating to 2020/2021 values.There were 1479 records matched across notifications and discharge databases, including 990 with principal and 489 with additional diagnosis of legionellosis. Incidence rose to an average of 143 cases per annum for 2016-2020, a rate of 3·2/100,000. The median LOS was 6 days (IQR 4-13·5) with direct costs of $2·1 million per annum over that period. Rates were highest in those aged 65 years and above, male, and of European/Other ethnicity. Hospitalisations showed a peak in spring and summer.The rate of hospitalised legionellosis in New Zealand rose from 2000 to 2015, largely reflecting improved diagnosis. This preventable disease results in substantial health care costs. Greater efforts are needed to identify and control sources of exposure. Surveillance could be improved by routine integration of notification and hospital discharge data.

We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.

New Zealand has a strategy of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 that has resulted in a low incidence of reported coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to describe the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in New Zealand via a nationwide serosurvey of blood donors. Samples (n = 9806) were collected over a month-long period (3 December 2020–6 January 2021) from donors aged 16–88 years. The sample population was geographically spread, covering 16 of 20 district health board regions. A series of Spike-based immunoassays were utilised, and the serological testing algorithm was optimised for specificity given New Zealand is a low prevalence setting. Eighteen samples were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, six of which were retrospectively matched to previously confirmed COVID-19 cases. A further four were from donors that travelled to settings with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, suggesting likely infection outside New Zealand. The remaining eight seropositive samples were from seven different district health regions for a true seroprevalence estimate, adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity, of 0.103% (95% confidence interval, 0.09–0.12%). The very low seroprevalence is consistent with limited undetected community transmission and provides robust, serological evidence to support New Zealand's successful elimination strategy for COVID-19.

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a large, preventable, global public health burden. In New Zealand (NZ), acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and RHD rates are highest for Māori and Pacific children. This structured review explores the evidence for primary prevention interventions to diagnose and effectively treat group A Streptococcus (GAS) pharyngitis and skin infections to reduce rates of ARF and RHD. Medline, EMBASE and Scopus databases were searched as well as other electronic publications. Included were 50 publications from 1980 onwards. This review has identified that there is little available evidence for effective primary prevention strategies to reduce ARF rates in NZ. However, two primary intervention strategies that should be considered by communities at high-risk of ARF are: the use of school-based clinics to identify and treat GAS pharyngitis and GAS skin infections; and intramuscular benzathine penicillin G with lignocaine analgesia in children who present with a GAS positive throat.

ObjectivesSophisticated epidemic models have been created to help governments and large healthcare organisations plan the necessary resources to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Whilst helpful, current modelling systems are not widely accessible or easily adapted to different populations and circumstances. Our objective was to develop a widely applicable, easily accessible, adaptable model for projecting new COVID-19 infections and deaths that requires minimal expertise or resources to use. The model should be adaptable to different populations and able to accommodate social and pharmaceutical interventions as well as changes in the disease.DesignA Susceptible, Infected and Removed (SIR) infectious disease model was created using widely available Microsoft Excel© software. The model is deterministic, generating projections based on the available data and assumptions made. It uses a process of Monitored Forecasting through Visual Matching of predicated vs observed curves to improve accuracy and facilitate adaptability. A review of the COVID-19 literature was performed in order to produce an initial set of adjustable parameters on which to base the output of the model.SettingThis model can be adapted to different regions or countries for which the requisite input data (population size and number of deaths due to the disease) are available. This model has been successfully used with data from England, Sudan and Saudi Arabia. Data from NHS England were used for producing the illustrative results presented here. The model is a generic infectious disease forecast model which may be adapted to other epidemics.InterventionGovernments, public health organisations, pharmaceutical companies and other public institutions may introduce interventions that affect disease transmission or severity. Other unknown factors such as new variants of the infective agent may do the same. The effects of changes in disease transmission are identified by the model when predicted and observed curves deviate. By aligning the curves an evaluation of the effect of the changes can be made.Outcome MeasuresThe model graphically demonstrates projections for daily deaths, cumulative deaths, case mix (asymptomatic, symptomatic and severe infections requiring admission), hospital admissions and bed occupancy (ICU, general medical and total).ResultsThe model successfully produced projections for the outcome measures using NHS England data. Users can adapt and continuously update the model correcting its projections as further local data becomes available. The Microsoft Excel platform allows the model to be used without expensive health information systems or computing infrastructure.ConclusionWe present an SIR epidemic model that projects COVID-19 disease progression, is widely accessible, adaptable to different populations and environments as the disease progresses and is likely to be of benefit for identifying changing population healthcare needs.