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Background: During the COVID-19 lockdown, referrals via the 2 Week Wait (2WW) urgent pathway for suspected cancer in England are reported to have dropped by up to 84%. We aimed to examine the impact on cancer survival of different scenarios of lockdown accumulated-backlog. We also aimed to examine by tumour-referral-group and age, survival benefit per referred patient considering survival decrement from delayed referral versus risk of death from nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: To construct the underlying models, we used age- and stage-stratified 10 year cancer survival estimates for England 2007-2017 for 20 common tumour-types. We applied per-day hazard ratios for cancer progression generated from observational studies of delay to-treatment. We quantified the annual numbers of cancers diagnosed via the 2WW-pathway using the 2WW age- and stage-specific breakdowns. From these, for per-patient delays of 1- 6 months, we estimated aggregate number of lives lost and life-years lost in England. Using referral-to-diagnosis conversion rates and COVID-19 case fatality rates, we also estimated the survival increment per patient referred. Findings: Per month across England in 2013-2016, on average 6,281 patients with Stage 1- 3 cancer were diagnosed via the 2WW pathway of whom 1,691 would be predicted to die within 10 years from their disease. We estimated 2WW-pathway presentational-delay from three months of lockdown will result in total in 181/361/542 attributable additional deaths (if % reduction in referrals was 25/50/75% respectively). Limited diagnostic capacity to address the backlog may result in additional delays: 401/811/1,231 attributable additional deaths are estimated if additional diagnostic capacity is delayed until months 3-8 post-lockdown. 2-month delay in 2WW investigatory referral results in average loss of life-years per-referred-patient of between 0 and 0.7, depending on age and tumour-type. Interpretation: Prompt provision of additional capacity for ‘catch-up’ in diagnostics will minimise deaths consequent from ‘diagnostic-delay’ accumulated on top of the ‘presentational-delay’. Prioritisation of patient groups for whom delay would result in most life years lost warrants consideration as an option for mitigating the aggregate burden of mortality. Funding: None

Radiological evaluation of incidentally detected lung nodules on computed tomography (CT) influences management. We assessed international radiological variation in 1) pulmonary nodule characterisation; 2) hypothetical guideline-derived management; and 3) radiologists' management recommendations. 107 radiologists from 25 countries evaluated 69 CT-detected nodules, recording: 1) first-choice composition (solid, part-solid or ground-glass, with percentage confidence); 2) morphological features; 3) dimensions; 4) recommended management; and 5) decision-influencing factors. We modelled hypothetical management decisions on the 2005 and updated 2017 Fleischner Society, and both liberal and parsimonious interpretations of the British Thoracic Society 2015 guidelines. Overall agreement for first-choice nodule composition was good (Fleiss' kappa=0.65), but poorest for part-solid nodules (weighted 0.62, interquartile range 0.50-0.71). Morphological variables, including spiculation (kappa=0.35), showed poor-to-moderate agreement (kappa=0.23-0.53). Variation in diameter was greatest at key thresholds (5 mm and 6 mm). Agreement for radiologists' recommendations was poor (kappa=0.30); 21% disagreed with the majority. Although agreement within the four guideline-modelled management strategies was good (kappa=0.63-0.73), 5-10% of radiologists would disagree with majority decisions if they applied guidelines strictly. Agreement was lowest for part-solid nodules, while significant measurement variation exists at important size thresholds. These variations resulted in generally good agreement for guideline-modelled management, but poor agreement for radiologists' actual recommendations.

Background: Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression on cancer cells is a clinically important biomarker to select patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) for treatment with programmed death-1/PD-L1 inhibitors. Clinical trials of immunotherapy in patients with NSCLC have required histologic evidence for PD-L1 testing; in clinical practice, cytologic samples commonly are acquired in patients with advanced disease. Research Question: This study aims to investigate whether endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) samples are adequate for PD-L1 testing in NSCLC. Study Design and Methods: This study investigates the sampling adequacy of EBUS-TBNA for PD-L1 testing when compared with other methods. Furthermore, the relationship between clinicopathologic characteristics and PD-L1 expression in the study population have been examined. Five hundred seventy-seven NSCLC specimens were analyzed from consecutive patients with NSCLC across six centers in the United Kingdom and one center in the United States between January 2015 and December 2016. Results: In the EBUS-TBNA group (189 specimens), the overall percentage of patients with successful PD-L1 testing was 94.7%. There was no significant difference in sampling adequacy with other methods of tissue acquisition. Older patients had higher failure rates of PD-L1 testing (OR, 1.06; P =.008). In multivariate analysis, advanced N-stage (P =.048) and presence of brain metastasis (P