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JNJ-73763989 is an N-acetylgalactosamine conjugated short interfering RNA combination product consisting of two triggers in clinical development for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection treatment that induces a selective degradation of all HBV mRNA transcripts. Our aim is to characterize the plasma and liver pharmacokinetics (PK) of JNJ-73763989 after intravenous and subcutaneous administration in recombinant adeno-associated (rAAV) HBV infected mice. Forty-two male rAAV-HBV infected C57Bl/6 mice received JNJ-73763989 doses of 10 mg/kg i.v. or 1, 3 and 10 mg/kg s.c. Plasma and liver concentrations were analyzed simultaneously using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling with the NONMEM 7.4. A population PK model consisting of a two-compartment disposition model with transporter-mediated drug disposition, including internalization to the liver compartment, linear elimination from plasma and liver, and first-order absorption following subcutaneous administration, was suitable to describe both plasma and liver PK. After subcutaneous dosing, absolute bioavailability was complete and flip-flop kinetics were observed. JNJ-73763989 distributes from plasma to liver via transporter-mediated liver internalization in less than 24 hours, with sustained (gt;42 days) liver exposure. The saturation of transporter-mediated liver internalization was hypothesized to be due to asialoglycoprotein receptor saturation. Increasing the dose decreased the relative liver uptake efficiency in mice for intravenously and, to a lesser extent, subcutaneously administered JNJ-73763989. Lower dose levels administered subcutaneously in mice can maximize the proportion of the dose reaching the liver. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Pharmacokinetic modeling of JNJ-73763989 liver and plasma concentration-time data in mice indicated that the proportion of JNJ-73763989 reaching the liver may be increased by administering lower subcutaneous doses compared to higher intravenous doses. Model-based simulations can be applied to optimize the dose and regimen combination.

Background Exposure–response analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between selected efficacy and safety endpoints and serum phosphate (PO4) concentrations, a potential biomarker of efficacy and safety, in locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma patients with FGFR alterations treated with erdafitinib. Methods Data from two dosing regimens of erdafitinib in a phase 2 study (NCT02365597), 6 and 8-mg/day with provision for pharmacodynamically guided titration per serum PO4 levels, were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard or logistic regression models. Efficacy endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR). Safety endpoints were adverse events typical for FGFR inhibitors. Results Exposure-efficacy analyses on 156 patients (6-mg = 68; 8-mg = 88) showed that patients with higher serum PO4 levels within the first 6 weeks showed better OS (hazard ratio 0.57 [95% CI 0.46–0.72] per mg/dL of PO4; p = 0.01), PFS (hazard ratio 0.80 [0.67–0.94] per mg/dL of PO4; p = 0.01), and ORR (odds ratio 1.38 [1.02–1.86] per mg/dL of PO4; p = 0.04). Exposure-safety analyses on 177 patients (6-mg = 78; 8-mg = 99) showed that the incidence of selected adverse events associated with on-target off-tumor effects significantly rose with higher PO4. Conclusions The exploratory relationship between serum PO4 levels and efficacy/safety outcomes supported the use of pharmacodynamically guided dose titration to optimize erdafitinib’s therapeutic benefit/risk ratio. Clinical trial registration number NCT02365597.

Background JNJ-4964 is a TLR7 agonist, which, via a type I interferon (IFN)–dependent mechanism, may enhance host immunity suppressed by persistent exposure to hepatitis B antigens in chronic hepatitis B. Methods PK and PD data were pooled from 2 studies involving 90 participants ( n = 74 JNJ-4964, dose range 0.2–1.8 mg; n = 16 placebo) in a fasted state. Food effects on PK were studied in 24 participants (1.2 or 1.25 mg). A population PK model and PK/PD models were developed to characterize the effect of JNJ-4964 plasma levels on the time course of IFN-α, IFN-γ–inducible protein 10 (IP-10 or CXCL10), IFN-stimulated gene 15 ( ISG15), neopterin and lymphocytes following single and weekly dosing in healthy adults. Covariate effects, circadian rhythms and negative feedback were incorporated in the models. Results A 3-compartment linear PK model with transit absorption adequately described JNJ-4964 PK. Bioavailability was 44.2% in fed state relative to fasted conditions. Indirect response models with maximum effect (Emax) stimulation on production rate constant (kin) described IFN-α, IP-10, ISG15 and neopterin, while a precursor-dependent indirect response model with inhibitory effect described the transient lymphocyte reduction. Emax, EC50 and γ (steepness) estimates varied according to PD markers, with EC50 displaying substantial between-subject variability. Female and Asian race exhibited lower EC50, suggesting higher responsiveness. Conclusions PK/PD models well characterized the time course of immune system markers in healthy adults. Our results supported sex and race as covariates on JNJ-4964 responsiveness, as well as circadian rhythms and negative feedback as homeostatic mechanisms that are relevant in TLR7-induced type I IFN responses.

Background JNJ-73763989 comprises two hepatitis B virus (HBV)-specific, liver-targeted N-galactosamine-conjugated short interfering RNA triggers, JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924. JNJ-73763989 pharmacokinetics, safety and tolerability were assessed in two phase 1 studies: Japanese (NCT04002752), and non-Japanese healthy participants and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients also receiving the HBV capsid assembly modulator JNJ-56136379 and a nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) (NCT03365947). Methods Healthy participant cohorts were double-blind and randomized to receive a single subcutaneous JNJ-73763989 dose (non-Japanese participants, 35, 100, 200, 300 or 400 mg; Japanese participants, 25, 100 or 200 mg) or placebo. JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924 plasma concentrations were assessed over 48 h. CHB patients received JNJ-73763989 200 mg every 4 weeks plus daily oral JNJ-56136379 250 mg and NA in an open-label fashion. Safety and tolerability were assessed through Day 28 (healthy participants) or Day 112 (patients). Results Thirty non-Japanese ( n = 4/dose; placebo, n = 10) and 24 Japanese healthy participants ( n = 6/dose; placebo, n = 6) were randomized. JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924 exposure generally increased in a dose-proportional manner. Mean plasma half-life was 4–9 h. No differences between pharmacokinetic parameters were apparent between non-Japanese and Japanese healthy participants. In the 12 CHB patients, mean JNJ-73763976, JNJ-73763924 and JNJ-56136379 plasma concentrations 2 h post-dose on Day 29 were 663, 269 and 14,718 ng/mL, respectively. In both studies, all adverse events were mild/moderate. Conclusion JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924 had short plasma half-lives and exposure generally increased in a dose-proportional manner; there were no pharmacokinetic differences between Japanese and non-Japanese healthy adults. JNJ-73763989 with or without JNJ-56136379 and NA was generally safe and well tolerated.

Starting in December 2013, West Africa was overwhelmed with the deadliest outbreak of Ebola virus known to date, resulting in more than 27,500 cases and 11,000 deaths. In response to the epidemic, development of a heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimen was accelerated and involved preparation of a phase 3 effectiveness study. While individually randomized controlled trials are widely acknowledged as the gold standard for demonstrating the efficacy of a candidate vaccine, there was considerable debate on the ethical appropriateness of these designs in the context of an epidemic. A suitable phase 3 trial must convincingly ensure unbiased evaluation with sufficient statistical power. In addition, efficient evaluation of a vaccine candidate is required so that an effective vaccine can be immediately disseminated. This manuscript aims to present the statistical and modeling considerations, design rationale and challenges encountered due to the emergent, epidemic setting that led to the selection of a cluster-randomized phase 3 study design under field conditions.

The duration of the presence of maternal mumps antibodies in a prospective cohort study is presented. Immunoglobulin G against mumps was portioned with a commercial ELISA test (EuroimmunA (R) anti-mumps Virus AT ELISA, Germany) on samples from 213 mother-child pairs at seven time points between pregnancy and 12 months of age. Non-linear mixed models were used to model maternal antibody decay in infants. The model-based median time to loss of antibodies was 3.6 months. The median child-specific time to loss of antibodies in children of naturally immune women (3.8 months) and children of vaccinated women (2.4 months) differed significantly (p = 0.025). The log antibody level of the mother and the log birth weight were correlated with the duration of maternal antibodies in infants (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Children of vaccinated women loose maternal mumps antibodies significantly earlier in life compared to children of naturally infected women. If early administration (< 12 months) of the combined measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine is needed, maternal mumps antibodies are not expected to interfere with infant humoral vaccine responses.

The basic reproduction number R0 and the effective reproduction number R are pivotal parameters in infectious disease epidemiology, quantifying the transmission potential of an infection in a population. We estimate both parameters from 13 pre-vaccination serological data sets on varicella zoster virus (VZV) in 12 European countries and from population-based social contact surveys under the commonly made assumptions of endemic and demographic equilibrium. The fit to the serology is evaluated using the inferred effective reproduction number R as a model eligibility criterion combined with AIC as a model selection criterion. For only 2 out of 12 countries, the common choice of a constant proportionality factor is sufficient to provide a good fit to the seroprevalence data. For the other countries, an age-specific proportionality factor provides a better fit, assuming physical contacts lasting longer than 15 min are a good proxy for potential varicella transmission events. In all countries, primary infection with VZV most often occurs in early childhood, but there is substantial variation in transmission potential with R0 ranging from 2.8 in England and Wales to 7.6 in The Netherlands. Two non-parametric methods, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and a random forest approach, are used to explain these differences in R0 in terms of relevant country-specific characteristics. Our results suggest an association with three general factors: inequality in wealth, infant vaccination coverage and child care attendance. This illustrates the need to consider fundamental differences between European countries when formulating and parameterizing infectious disease models. ES acknowledges support from a Methusalem research grant from the Flemish Government. NG is beneficiary of a postdoctoral grant from the AXA Research Fund. NH acknowledges support from the Antwerp University scientific chair in Evidence-Based Vaccinology, financed in 2009-2014 by an unrestricted gift from Pfizer. AM is currently receiving funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Program(FP7/2007-2013)/ERC Starting Grant [Agreement No. 283955]. Support from the IAP Research Network P7/06 of the Belgian State(Belgian Science Policy) is gratefully acknowledged. The computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the Hercules Foundation and the Flemish Government - department EWI. This study was initiated as part of POLYMOD, a European Commission project funded within the Sixth Framework Programme, Contract number: SSP22-CT-2004-502084.

Biomedical studies often generate repeated measures of multiple outcomes on a set of subjects. It may be of interest to develop a biologically intuitive model for the joint evolution of these outcomes while assessing inter-subject heterogeneity. Even though it is common for biological processes to entail non-linear relationships, examples of multivariate non-linear mixed models (MNMMs) are still fairly rare. We contribute to this area by jointly analyzing the maternal antibody decay for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, allowing for a different non-linear decay model for each infectious disease. We present a general modeling framework to analyze multivariate non-linear longitudinal profiles subject to censoring, by combining multivariate random effects, non-linear growth and Tobit regression. We explore the hypothesis of a common infant-specific mechanism underlying maternal immunity using a pairwise correlated random-effects approach and evaluating different correlation matrix structures. The implied marginal correlation between maternal antibody levels is estimated using simulations. The mean duration of passive immunity was less than 4months for all diseases with substantial heterogeneity between infants. The maternal antibody levels against rubella and varicella were found to be positively correlated, while little to no correlation could be inferred for the other disease pairs. For some pairs, computational issues occurred with increasing correlation matrix complexity, which underlines the importance of further developing estimation methods for MNMMs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Many human infectious diseases originate from animals or are transmitted through animal vectors. We aimed to identify factors that are predictive of ownership and touching of animals, assess whether animal ownership influences social contact behavior, and estimate the probability of a major zoonotic outbreak should a transmissible influenza-like pathogen be present in animals, all in the setting of a densely populated European country. A diary-based social contact survey (n = 1768) was conducted in Flanders, Belgium, from September 2010 until February 2011. Many participants touched pets (46%), poultry (2%) or livestock (2%) on a randomly assigned day, and a large proportion of participants owned such animals (51%, 15% and 5%, respectively). Logistic regression models indicated that larger households are more likely to own an animal and, unsurprisingly, that animal owners are more likely to touch animals. We observed a significant effect of age on animal ownership and touching. The total number of social contacts during a randomly assigned day was modeled using weighted-negative binomial regression. Apart from age, household size and day type (weekend versus weekday and regular versus holiday period), animal ownership was positively associated with the total number of social contacts during the weekend. Assuming that animal ownership and/or touching are at-risk events, we demonstrate a method to estimate the outbreak potential of zoonoses. We show that in Belgium animal-human interactions involving young children (0-9 years) and adults (25-54 years) have the highest potential to cause a major zoonotic outbreak.

The effectiveness of childhood immunization programs depends on the vaccination coverage actually achieved. Routinely collected coverage data are not always available, and comparability between countries is often compromised because of different data collection methods. In 2000, Gay developed a method to estimate trivalent vaccination coverage from readily available trivariate serological data on the basis of parametric assumptions related to the rate of seroconversion for each vaccine component and probabilities of natural exposure to infection. Gay's work was indirectly published in a paper by Altmann and Altmann, who derived exact solutions for the parameters on the basis of Gay's modeling equations. In this paper, we propose a general likelihood-based marginal model framework to extend Gay's model by relaxing two of its main assumptions. We use the Bahadur model for trivariate binary data to explicitly account for an association between the disease-specific exposure probabilities. We fit several correlation structures to measles, mumps, and rubella serology from Belgium and Ireland. For both countries, we estimate a small positive pairwise exposure correlation, which improves the fit to the data. However, the effect on the estimated vaccination coverage and its associated variability is fairly moderate. For both Belgium and Ireland, all models reveal that the vaccination coverage achieved during the first 15?years since the introduction of measles, mumps, and rubella immunization is insufficient to eliminate measles. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Despite long-standing two-dose measles-mumpsrubella (MMR) vaccination, measles outbreaks still occur in highly vaccinated European populations. For instance, large measles outbreaks occurred in France (2008–13), the United Kingdom (2012–13) and the Netherlands (2012). Based on a multicohort model approach, using spatial serological survey data, MMR vaccination coverage data and data on social contacts, we found effective reproduction numbers significantly higher than 1 for measles in Belgium. This indicates that at one of the expected re-introductions, a measles outbreak is likely to spread, especially when it occurs during school term. The predicted average effective reproduction number increased over a 30-year time span from 1.3 to 2.2 and from 1.9 to 3.2 for basic reproduction numbers of 12 and 18, respectively. The expected relative measles incidence was highest in infants under one year of age, in adolescents and young adults. In conclusion, gradually increasing proportions of susceptible adolescents and young adults provide through their highly active social life an avenue for measles to resurge in large outbreaks upon re-introduction in Belgium, especially during school terms. Infants form an important vulnerable group during future measles outbreaks. The authors would like to acknowledge the colleagues of the Flemish Agency for Care and Health, the Scientific Institute of Public Health and the measles elimination committee for fruitful discussions related to this research. NH acknowledges support of the University of Antwerp Scientific Chair in Evidence-based Vaccinology sponsored in 2009-2014 by a gift from Pfizer. SA acknowledges support by the Research Fund of Hasselt University (Grant BOF11NI31). ES and HG acknowledge support from a Methusalem research grant from the Flemish government. NG is beneficiary of a postdoctoral grant from the AXA Research Fund. Support from the IAP Research Network P7/06 of the Belgian State (Belgian Science Policy) is gratefully acknowledged. HT and EL are postdoctoral researchers for the Fund of Scientific Research - Flanders (FWO). The computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the Hercules Foundation and the Flemish Government - department EWI.