1. Modeling the regional spread and control of vancomycin-resistant enterococci
- Author
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S. Levent Yilmaz, Kim F. Wong, Taliser R. Avery, Bruce Y. Lee, Joshua M. Epstein, Susan S. Huang, Richard Christie, Jon Parker, Yeohan Song, Shawn T. Brown, Sarah M. Bartsch, and Stephen Eubank
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,Epidemiology ,medicine.disease_cause ,California ,Article ,Vancomycin ,Environmental health ,Health care ,Prevalence ,Humans ,Medicine ,Infection control ,Computer Simulation ,Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus ,Colonization ,Intensive care medicine ,Gram-Positive Bacterial Infections ,Cross Infection ,Infection Control ,business.industry ,Health Policy ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Vancomycin Resistance ,Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci ,biochemical phenomena, metabolism, and nutrition ,bacterial infections and mycoses ,Hospitals ,Anti-Bacterial Agents ,Care facility ,Infectious Diseases ,One Health ,business ,Enterococcus ,medicine.drug - Abstract
Background Because patients can remain colonized with vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) for long periods of time, VRE may spread from one health care facility to another. Methods Using the Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst, an agent-based model of patient flow among all Orange County, California, hospitals and communities, we quantified the degree and speed at which changes in VRE colonization prevalence in a hospital may affect prevalence in other Orange County hospitals. Results A sustained 10% increase in VRE colonization prevalence in any 1 hospital caused a 2.8% (none to 62%) average relative increase in VRE prevalence in all other hospitals. Effects took from 1.5 to >10 years to fully manifest. Larger hospitals tended to have greater affect on other hospitals. Conclusions When monitoring and controlling VRE, decision makers may want to account for regional effects. Knowing a hospital's connections with other health care facilities via patient sharing can help determine which hospitals to include in a surveillance or control program.
- Published
- 2013
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