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Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider climate uncertainty in their construction. We use a well-known cost-benefit integrated assessment model, the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, with its climate component replaced by the Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model (v2.1). The climate uncertainty in FaIR is sampled with an ensemble that is consistent with historically observed climate and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed ranges of key climate variables such as equilibrium climate sensitivity. Three scenarios are produced: a pathway similar to the "optimal welfare" scenario of DICE that has similar warming outcomes to current policies, and pathways that limit warming to "well-below" 2C and 1.5C with low overshoot, in line with Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals. Climate uncertainty alone is responsible for a factor of five variation (5-95% range) in the social cost of carbon in the 1.5C scenario. CO2 emissions trajectories resulting from the optimal level of emissions abatement in all pathways are also sensitive to climate uncertainty, with 2050 emissions ranging from -12 to +14 GtCO2/yr in the 1.5C scenario. Equilibrium climate sensitivity and the strength of present-day aerosol effective radiative forcing are strong determinants of social cost of carbon and mid-century CO2 emissions. This shows that narrowing climate uncertainty leads to more refined estimates for the social cost of carbon and provides more certainty about the optimal rate of emissions abatement. Including climate and climate uncertainty in integrated assessment model derived emissions scenarios would address a key missing feedback in scenario construction., Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures

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Background: Prior concussion studies have shown that objective neurophysiological measures are sensitive to detecting concussive and subconcussive impairments in youth ice-hockey. These studies monitored brain vital signs at rink-side using a within-subjects design to demonstrate significant changes from pre-season baseline scans. However, practical clinical implementation must overcome inherent challenges related to any dependence on a baseline. This requires establishing the start of normative reference data sets. Methods: The current study collected specific reference data for N = 58 elite, youth, male ice-hockey players and compared these with a general reference dataset from N = 135 of males and females across the lifespan. The elite hockey players were recruited to a select training camp through CAA Hockey, a management agency for players drafted to leagues such as the National Hockey League (NHL). The statistical analysis included a test-retest comparison to establish reliability, and a multivariate analysis of covariance to evaluate differences in brain vital signs between groups with age as a covariate. Findings: Test-retest assessments for brain vital signs evoked potentials showed moderate-to-good reliability (Cronbach's Alpha > 0.7, Intraclass correlation coefficient > 0.5) in five out of six measures. The multivariate analysis of covariance showed no overall effect for group (p = 0.105), and a significant effect of age as a covariate was observed (p < 0.001). Adjusting for the effect of age, a significant difference was observed in the measure of N100 latency (p = 0.022) between elite hockey players and the heterogeneous control group. Interpretation: The findings support the concept that normative physiological data can be used in brain vital signs evaluation in athletes, and should additionally be stratified for age, skill level, and experience. These can be combined with general norms and/or individual baseline assessments where appropriate and/or possible. The current results allow for brain vital sign evaluation independent of baseline assessment, therefore enabling objective neurophysiological evaluation of concussion management and cognitive performance optimization in ice-hockey.

Additional file 1. Point-of-care ultrasound cleaning survey.

Strong future warming in some new climate models is less likely as their recent warming is inconsistent with observed trends., Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14 and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995–2014. Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target.

Supplemental material, AUT777243_Lay_Abstract for Parent-reported early symptoms of autism spectrum disorder in children without intellectual disability who were diagnosed at school age by Anthony Goodwin, Nicole L Matthews and Christopher J Smith in Autism

My thesis concentrates on the trope of music as a mystical power within pre-Christian Irish folklore. I have emphasized folk tales and songs from four Cycles of Irish folk literature. The Mythological Cycle: these stories are of the former gods and origins of the Irish and are considered to illustrate the Golden Age. The Ulster Cycle (Ultonian Cycle): traditionally set around the first century CE, these stories involve action taking place in the provinces of Ulster and Connacht and are considered to represent the Heroic Age. The King Cycle (Historical Cycle): written by Irish poets and bards, these stories are about the genealogy of kings in Ireland through the combination of mythology and history. And the Fianna Cycle: stories from around the third century CE about Fionn Mac Cumhail and his band of warriors, the Fianna. Generally speaking, there are three categories of music in Irish folklore: geantraí, the music of happiness; goltraí, the music of sadness; and suantraí, the music of sleep and meditation. In the Cycles, these three kinds of music are used in various ways, usually as a way to control people, items, or the outcomes of events through weaponry, sorcery, or beauty. An example of this is a story from the Mythological Cycle called Battle of Magh Tuireadin. In this story, the Dagda (the father deity of the Tuatha Dé Danann) searched for his sacred harp Uaithne, who had been taken by the Fomorians. When the Dagda saw the harp hanging on the wall, he called it and began to use all three types of music. Opening with goltraí, he made the women in attendance weep; continuing with geantraí, he caused the young people to erupt with laughter; and ending with suantraí, to lull the whole assembly to sleep in order to escape with his harp unharmed. Along with excerpted texts from the four Cycles, I employ secondary sources drawing upon literary analysis, folklore scholarship, as well as certain aspects of pre-Christian Irish history and ethnography. My methodology includes close reading and textual analysis. An important source that influenced my methodology is Ann Buckley’s “Music as Symbolic Sound in Medieval Irish Society.” I more completely and concretely demonstrate the use of music as a source of power or magic in Irish folklore, and in turn to demonstrate the importance and status of music and musicians during Ireland’s pre-Christian era.

1. Balafon by Christian Lauba 2. Fuzzy Bird Sonata by Takashi Yoshimatsu 3. Distances Within Me by Jonh Anthony Lennon 4. Duo for alto saxophone and Piano by Walter Hartley 5. Elegie et Rondeau by Karel Husa 6. Movement for two saxophones by Joseph Prestamo 7. Charlas for two alto saxophones by Guillermo Lago 8. Doo-dah for three alto saxophones by William Albright 9. String Quartet No. 3, Op. 65 by Lars-Erik Larsson 10. Nepomuk's Dances from Memory by Marcelo Zarvos 11. Sonata for alto saxophone and piano by William Albright 12. Vocalise (Lentamente-molto cantabile) from 14 Romances, Op. 34 by Sergei Rachmaninoff 13. Concerto for Alto Saxophone (and piano) by Karel Husa 14. Concerto for Alto Saxophone (and large saxophone ensemble) by Karel Husa

Patriarchal ideologies and attitudes have obscured, concealed, and devalued women’s music over centuries. However important or vital their engagement, women’s role in music has been submitted to a historical process of invisibility. Either as composers, patrons and teachers, women role in Music history is still going through a historical revisionism that aims to proclaim their historical place within the musical history. Regarding the significant efforts, women creative role in music it is still regarded as something different that deals with problematics of misrepresentation and notions of ‘otherness’. This problematic approach to women-in music raises many questions relevant to my own research and my own role within music. I seek an approach to the study of women in music as a history within which female education, gender power relations and domestication converge, raising issues of colonialism and gender empowering. By looking at female musical bodies as recipients of memory, capable of multiple incarnations, I design an analytical model of the nuances and cultural and creative implications surrounding women’s music work. I aim for a model of female musical identity proceeding from a non-prejudice theoretical frame that considers the multiple bodies implicated in the creative process of female performers and artists. By looking at the multiple strategies and socio-cultural frames used by selected female musicians I developed a scholarly perspective which can examine the creative process to reveal context, content and intention.