1. Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches
- Author
-
Henrik Carlsen, Robert J. Lempert, Vanessa Schweizer, and Per Wikman-Svahn
- Subjects
Computer and Information Sciences ,Decision support system ,Environmental Engineering ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Operations research ,Vulnerability ,Scenario diversity analysis ,Joins ,Decision support systems ,010501 environmental sciences ,computer.software_genre ,01 natural sciences ,Scenario analysis ,Robust decision making ,Robust decision-making ,Optimization based methods ,Climate change ,Selection criteria ,Selection (genetic algorithm) ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Scenario discovery ,Ecological Modeling ,Small number ,Data- och informationsvetenskap ,Decision support applications ,Diversity analysis ,Miljövetenskap ,Range (mathematics) ,Robust decisions ,Diverse range ,Data mining ,Decision making ,Futures contract ,computer ,Environmental Sciences ,Software ,Vulnerability based scenario analysis - Abstract
Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Describes an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of scenarios.A combination of criteria related to vulnerability and diversity is used.The method is applied to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure.
- Published
- 2016