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The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets for the period up to 2040 were made using economic and mathematical optimization modeling based on the ERI RAS SCANER model complex, for two scenarios: Conservative (maintaining key benchmarks and regulatory measures within the framework of existing energy policies, as well as incremental development of technologies without major breakthroughs) and Energy Transition (assuming ambitious goals in the field of reducing emissions, as well as accelerated technology development). The results of calculations show that the growth rate of primary energy consumption will slow down significantly. Renewable energy sources (RES) will be able to provide up to 35–50% of electricity production and up to a quarter of the world’s energy consumption by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels will decline. Oil and coal will pass the peak of consumption before 2040. This will not only lead to a radical change in the price environment of energy markets, but also to a transformation of the way they are organized and regulated, as well as to a revision of business models of most energy companies.

В работе анализируются последствия сдвигов в мировой экономике на мировую энергетику и российский экспорт энергоносителей. Показано, что изменение структуры мировой экономики, снижение ее энергоемкости, повышение эффективности использования энергоресурсов, принятие большинством стран мира программ перехода к низкоуглеродной экономике приводят к падению темпов роста мирового потребления энергии. Отмечено, что смещение центра роста мировой экономики из развитых стран в развивающуюся Азию превращает этот регион в лидера мирового потребления энергоносителей и их импорта. Обращается внимание на то, что нынешняя структура и географическая направленность российского экспорта энергоносителей не соответствует новым тенденциям развития мировой энергетики. Предлагаются меры для изменения ситуации., The paper analyzes the consequences of shifts in the world economy on world energy and Russian energy exports. It is shown that changing the structure of the world economy, reducing its energy intensity, increasing the efficiency of energy use, the adoption by most countries of the world of programs for the transition to a low-carbon economy lead to a drop in the growth rate of their world consumption. It is noted that the shift of the center of growth of the world economy from developed countries to developing Asia turns this region into a leader in world energy consumption and imports. Attention is drawn to the fact that the current structure and geographical orientation of Russian energy exports does not correspond to the new trends in the development of world energy, measures are proposed to change the situation.

The article analyses the prospects for the implementation of the largest international scientific and technical project (“mega-science” project) ITER of controlled thermonuclear fusion. With the depletion of fossil fuel reserves, the role of new energy sources, including those that have not yet been developed, is increasing. Due to the extremely high costs and ambitious scientific goals facing the project, its practical implementation and funding are possible in close international scientific and technical cooperation in the energy sector. The role of an international group of seven participants (Russia, the EU, Japan, China, India, the Republic of Korea and the USA) in the creation of laboratory fusion facilities is noted. The choice of a Tokamak-type design for the ITER international reactor being built in France is the recognition of Russian’s decisive role. The article reveals the main parameters of international partnership, the specification of which is carried out on a regular basis at ITER coordination meetings with the participation of representatives of national ITER agencies. The parameters of interaction with scientific institutions of countries that are not members of the consortium are given. The evolution of the project since its launch in 1985 as a joint Soviet-American initiative is shown. Four options for the initial placement of the reactor are considered: in Spain, France, Canada and Japan. The features of the organizational and legal regulation of the international consortium for the management of ITER are disclosed, including the establishment of the ITER International Organization for Thermonuclear Energy for the joint implementation of the ITER project in 2006. The role of the in-kind contribution of countries in international projects in the exchange of unique world-class technologies is discussed. The main goals set by the countries participating in the project and the time horizons for their practical achievement are listed. The parameters of Russia's participation in the project are given, the prospects for further cooperation in this area are evaluated. Particular attention is paid to the peculiarities of the political interaction of the participating countries, as well as to the intermediate results already achieved during the implementation of the ITER project.

Предметом настоящей работы является разработка рекомендаций для развития воз-обновляемых источников энергии в России. С этой целью в статье анализируются происходящие в мировой энергетике тенденции, связанные с международной эколо-гической повесткой, изучен конкретный опыт реализации экологически ориентиро-ванных мер, рассматривается связь международной экологической повестки и миро-вой экономики, отмечается, что озабоченность состоянием окружающей среды оказы-вает влияние на трансформационные процессы в энергетике. Практика европейских стран-лидеров в области возобновляемых источников энергии показана посредством сравнения двух основных механизмов поддержки данной отрасли. Проанализиро-ваны особенности внедрения мер стимулирования чистой энергии в России, даны рекомендации по их совершенствованию, The subject of this work is the development of recommendations for the development of renewable sources energy in Russia. To this end, the article analyzes the trends in the world energy, related to the international environmental agenda, specific experience was studied in the implementation of environmentally-oriented measures, the relationship between the international environmental agenda and the world economy is considered, it is noted that concern over the state of the environment affects the transformation processes in the energy sector. The practice of European countries-leaders in the field of renewable energy sources is shown by comparing the two main mechanisms of supporting this industry. The specif-ics of the introduction of measures to stimulate clean energy in Russia were analyzed, and recommendations for their improvement were given

This study proposes a use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess the performance of energy industries. The DEA is a nonparametric approach that does not assume any functional form for performance assessment. The purpose of this study is to discuss how DEA can examine the current energy industries and their trends in the world. The energy is separated into primary and secondary categories. The primary energy is classified into fossil and non-fossil fuels. The fossil fuels include oil, natural gas and coal, while the non-fossil ones include nuclear and renewable energies (e.g., solar, wind, biomass, water and others). Energy consumption is essential for developing economic prosperity in all nations. However, a use of various energy resources usually produces many different types of pollutions (e.g., air, soil and water pollutions), leading to a huge damage on our society and human health. Thus, it is important for us to understand a general trend of world energy when we consider various environmental issues. This study discusses electricity as a representative of secondary energy. It is not easy to maintain a high level of social balance, so-called sustainability between economic development and environmental protection. As the initial step for sustainability development, this study summarizes a general trend of energy whose consumption has been increasing along with an economic development and a population increase in the world. Along with discussing the trend of world energy, this study describes why DEA is useful as one of the methodologies to assess a social balance between economic success and environmental protection by identifying a level of efficiency, later referred to as “unified (operational and environmental) efficiency.” Thus, this study conveys the research necessity of DEA environmental assessment on energy and sustainability from a perspective of supply and demand on energy resources in the world.

The challenge for the development community is to exploit the links between energy and poverty to combat global poverty. The human scale of this challenge is huge. Today, 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity and 2.4 billion rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Indoor air pollution is among leading causes of illness and death in developing countries. It leads to 2 million premature deaths a year. In 2004, the richest 20 percent of the world s population consume 58 percent of total energy, while the poorest 20 percent consume less than 4 percent. The majority of those underserved are the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. With increasing populations, 25 years from now, business-as-usual energy scenarios project that even after an expenditure of 16 trillion US dollars on energy investments of which half will be in developing countries, 1.4 billion people will still lack access to electricity. This is a reduction of only 200 million people from today. Over 2.6 billion people in developing countries will continue to rely on traditional forms of biomass for cooking and heating in 2030, even more than today. This scenario expects renewable energy share to increase from 2 percent to 3 percent between 2000 and 2030. Under this scenario, by 2030, the more than doubling of coal, oil and gas consumption will lead to increases in greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. The impacts will affect the developing countries the most, and hence rendering the poor more vulnerable. Projected impacts are increased deaths and risk of infectious disease epidemics; increased floods, mudslides and coastal and soil erosion; increased property and infrastructure damage; decreased crops, higher crop damages and a general drop in agricultural productivity.