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This paper examines the presence of herding on foreign trading at individual stock level and portfolio level in the Colombo Stock Exchange as a response to a long-standing trading belief that investors mimic the trading strategies of foreign investors. The standard CSAD framework of Chang et al (2000) is extended replacing return on market portfolio with return on market foreign portfolio holding in the model specification. The standard CSAD specification is also used to identify the presence of herding towards the market under high market volatility, bullish market condition, high trading and transaction volume, domestic and global market crisis and up and down market conditions. Except for the evidence on herding towards the market under bullish market condition at portfolio level, the regression results under other market conditions do not provide reasonable evidence for the presence of herding on foreign trading or herding towards the market on average. Further, taking CSAD as a proxy for heteroskedastic residuals following the framework of Banz (1981), the capital asset pricing model of Black (1972) is used to test the specification of CSAD. The findings suggest that the form of herding accounted for by CSAD is a manifestation of residual heteroskedasticity.

Exposure of livestock grazing to forage productivity variation and to market fluctuations affects the risk of investment and returns from cow-calf operations, but little work has been done to empirically compare these returns to the returns that would be demanded by financial markets from assets with similar risk and return characteristics. This study uses historical forage production data from three rangeland locations in California, and cattle and hay prices, to simulate financial statements for three hypothetical cow-calf producers in the period 1988–2007. Return on investment from year to year incorporates the variability and risk associated with dependence on natural forage production. Performance is then compared to the actual performance of a diversified portfolio of assets using the Capital Asset Pricing Model, from which the theoretical cost of capital for these hypothetical grazing enterprises is derived. Much like other agricultural enterprises, cow-calf production in California has low market risk and a low theoretical cost of capital. This theoretical cost of capital is still greater than the historical return from livestock production (excluding land appreciation) in the western United States, adding further backing to the point often made in the literature that ranchers who engage in cow-calf production are receiving benefits beyond the commercial returns from livestock production alone.

International audience; We consider an inference method for prediction based on belief functions in quantile regression with an asymmetric Laplace distribution. We apply this method to the capital asset pricing model to estimate the beta coefficient and measure volatility under various market conditions at given quantiles. Likelihood-based belief functions are constructed from historical data of the securities in the S&P500 market. The results give us evidence on the systematic risk, in the form of a consonant belief function specified from the asymmetric Laplace distribution likelihood function given recorded data. Finally, we use the method to forecast the return of an individual stock.

In this paper we study value strategies for four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). We find an outperformance for all four value variables which are investigated: the earnings-to-price (E/P) ratio, the cash-flow-to-price (CF/P) ratio, the book-to-market (B/M) ratio and the dividend yield. This outperformance is especially remarkable for the CF/P ratio, which amounts to 20.8% between the top and bottom quintiles in an univariate model. In a regression analysis, in which all four value variables as well as a correction for the size effect are taken into account, we find a difference of 11.8% for the CF/P ratio. We demonstrate that this result can not be explained by risk differences alone. Our findings confirm the outperformance of value strategies as found earlier by Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) and Lakonishok, schleifer and Vishny (1994) for Japan and the United States respectively.

Much has been made of the low returns on investment for western rangeland ranching. However, little work has been done to empirically compare these returns to the return that would be demanded by financial markets from assets with similar risk and return characteristics. This study uses historical forage productivity data from three locations in California’s Mediterranean rangelands to simulate financial statements for three hypothetical cow-calf ranches and measures the variability in return on investment from year to year. This performance is then compared to the actual performance of a diversified portfolio of investment assets using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), from which the theoretical cost of capital for these hypothetical ranches is derived. Much like other agricultural enterprises, cow-calf ranching in California is found to have low market risk and a low theoretical cost of capital based on the CAPM, approximately equal to the risk-free rate of return, which averaged 4.8 percent for the period 1988-2007. This cost of capital is still significantly greater than the historical return on cow-calf ranching in the western U.S. of 2.0 to 3.0 percent, implying that ranchers are receiving benefits from their business beyond financial returns, and reinforcing the idea that they derive amenity or other environmental values from these investments.

The equity premium puzzle shows that using standard parameters and setup, the Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model's (CCAPM's) prediction of the premium associated with systematic risk is out by an order of magnitude.The object of this paper is to consider the implications of each of the broad classes of explanations of the equity premium puzzle for resource allocation, welfare and policy.We argue that the most robust implications are those that flow directly from the high price of systematic risk and are therefore independent of the resolution of the puzzle.

Risk premia in the consumption capital asset pricing model depend on preferences and dividend. We develop a decomposition which allows a separate treatment of both components. We show that preferences alone determine the risk-return tradeoff measured by the Sharpe-ratio. In general, the risk-return trade-off implied by preferences depends on the elasticity of a preference-based stochastic discount factor for pricing assets with respect to the consumption innovation. Depending on the particular specification of preferences, the absolute value of this elasticity can coincide to the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (e.g. for habit formation preferences) or the coefficient of relative risk-aversion (e.g. for Epstein-Zin preferences). We demonstrate that preferences based on a small elasticity of intertemporal substitution, such as habit formation, produce small risk premia once agents are allowed to save. Departing from the complete markets framework, we show that uninsurable risk can only increase the Sharpe-ratio and risk premia if dividends are correlated with individual consumption.

Existing general equilibrium models based on traditional expected utility preferences have been unable to explain the excess return predictability observed in equity markets, bond markets, and foreign exchange markets. In this paper, we abandon the expected-utility hypothesis in favor of preferences that exhibit first-order risk aversion. We incorporate these preferences into a general equilibrium two-country monetary model, solve the model numerically, and compare the quantitative implications of the model to estimates obtained from U.S. and Japanese data for equity, bond and foreign exchange markets. Although increasing the degree of first-order risk aversion substantially increases excess return predictability, the model remains incapable of generating excess return predictability sufficiently large to match the data. We conclude that the observed patterns of excess return predictability are unlikely to be explained purely by time-varying risk premiums generated by highly risk averse agents in a complete markets economy.