Search

The spread of pandemics such as COVID-19 is strongly linked to human activities. The objective of this article is to specify and examine early indicators of disease spread risk in cities during the initial stages of outbreak based on patterns of human activities obtained from digital trace data. In this study, the Venables distance (Dv) and the activity density (Da) are used to quantify and evaluate human activities for 193 United States counties, whose cumulative number of confirmed cases was greater than 100 as of March 31, 2020. Venables distance provides a measure of the agglomeration of the level of human activities based on the average distance of human activities across a city or a county (less distance could lead to a greater contact risk). Activity density provides a measure of level of overall activity level in a county or a city (more activity could lead to a greater risk). Accordingly, Pearson correlation analysis is used to examine the relationship between the two human activity indicators and the basic reproduction number in the following weeks. The results show statistically significant correlations between the indicators of human activities and the basic reproduction number in all counties, as well as a significant leader-follower relationship (time lag) between them. The results also show one to two weeks’ lag between the change in activity indicators and the decrease in the basic reproduction number. This result implies that the human activity indicators provide effective early indicators for the spread risk of the pandemic during the early stages of the outbreak. Hence, the results could be used by the authorities to proactively assess the risk of disease spread by monitoring the daily Venables distance and activity density in a proactive manner. more...

Although well-established indicators make it possible to predict hostile conventional military actions, few such indicators exist to help defense planners anticipate the onset of subversive activities by foreign adversaries. In the 21st century, however, Western societies have often been targeted by adversaries who exploit environmental aspects of the gray zone to subvert the democratic process and influence decision making. The use of non-state actors and social mobilization as well as non-military tactics, such as political, psychological, and information strategies, have frequently escalated to crises due to lack of situational awareness. This research provides a brief overview of the gray-zone literature, social movement theories (SMT), and social network analysis/social media exploitation to show how these theories and methods can enhance our understanding of current crises. Based on case studies of Ukraine and Estonia, this research uses SMT to conceptualize, examine, and identify early indicators of Russian subversive actions by carefully analyzing how gray-zone conflicts emerge. http://archive.org/details/illuminatingtheg1094559619 Captain, Sweden Marine Corps Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. more...

9 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, In this work we develop a model describing the evolution of the adenosine triphosphate (ATP) degradation products, typically used as early indicators of fish quality loss, during storage and transport conditions. The model is constructed following a modular approach that includes essentially three mechanisms: (1) enzymatic transformation of inosine 5′-monophosphate (IMP), inosine (Ino) and hypoxanthine (Hx) with some reactions catalyzed by bacteria; (2) bacterial growth and (3) nucleotide diffusion through the food matrix. This approach allows us to combine the different underlying mechanisms to account for other fish species and conditions. We compare alternative mechanisms explaining the catalytic effect of Pseudomonas and Shewanella populations on the reaction linking IMP, Ino and Hx. The selection is carried out in terms of the Akaike Information Criteria. The predictive capabilities of the selected model are demonstrated with experiments, The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Projects ISFORQUALITY AGL2012-39951-C02-01 and RESISTANCE DPI2014-54085-JIN) more...

Division of Transplantation, Box 40, Tufts Medical Center, 800 Washington Street, Boston, MA 02111, USA Department of Surgery, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge University Hospitals, Cambridge, UK Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Liver Unit, Favaloro Foundation and University, Buenos Aires, Argentina more...

Infections with the 2009 pandemic influenza A(HlNl) virus often leads to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in high-risk patients. In these patients, ARDS has a mortality rate of 40-50 % [1]. Patients may die before any intervention is possible since there are few if any early biomarkers that are indicative of ARDS and can be used for diagnosis. In a search for biomarkers that signal early disease progression in mice, multiple acute phase proteins involved with inflammatory responses to infectious stimuli were proposed. Three biomarkers were evaluated for this project. These included C-reactive protein (CRP), Serum Amyloid A (SAA) and Transferrin. To validate these biomarkers as predictors of ARDS, mice were infected with the influenza A Califomia/04/2009 (H 1 N 1 )pdm09 virus and serum was collected from infected mice at different time points (0 - 72 hours post infection). Serum samples were tested for amounts of CRP, SAA and Transferrin using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Control mice were mock-infected and tested alongside for comparison. Our results indicate that of the three biomarkers tested, SAA shows strong potential as an early indicator of ARDS with a peak at 72 hours post infection in infected mice serum. Further investigation is in progress to observe the levels of SAA past day 3 (72 hours post infection). more...

The purpose of this project is to investigate if application of online sensor measurements can improve the use of Evolutionary operation (EVOP) tools in livestock farms by reducing manual recording and by observing intermediate problem measures at an early stage. An example with reduction of tail-biting is used as a case. Traditionally, the frequency of the "tail-biting" in a pen is used to indicate if a treatment reduces the occurrence of tail-biting or not. Power calculations have shown that to detect a treatment difference of 10% vs 20%, 6 batches with 16 pens per section are needed to yield a power of 80%. It is generally accepted that there will be behavioural signs before an outbreak of tail-biting, such as increased activity (restlessness) and likely changes in the circadian rhythm. Using those indicators, based on online measurements of water consumption, it is our hypothesis that we can reduce the number of batches or pens needed and still get the same power. This is based on the assumption that early indicators are more sensitive than the event "tail-biting". To test this hypothesis, power calculations for EVOP design based on sensor measurements of diurnal variation in water use are presented. The calculations are made with typical farm dimensions and are based on estimates of standard deviations and variance components from a setup where water use was measured at pen level. more...