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Refereed/Peer-reviewed During the COVID-19 pandemic, countries applied trade restrictions to insulate their domestic markets from the world market. However, these trade policies could have amplified international market price fluctuations. This paper explores the effects of trade restrictions on international agricultural price volatility. A theoretical model is developed to quantify how trade policies amplify the initial shock. Using panel data covering 71 countries from January 2020 to July 2021, we examine empirically the effects of trade policies on world agricultural price volatility. The results show that trade distortions further induced volatility of world agricultural prices by around 22 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic. The multiplier effects are much more substantial in agricultural exporting countries than in importing countries. Large countries like China and the US could make significant contributions to stabilizing world prices by limiting the extent of unilateral trade policy interventions.

Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon in terms of form, development and consequences. Inflation undermines the possibilities of the economic regulation mechanism, nullifies the efforts to carry out structural changes and restore destroyed proportions. The aim of the article is to construct a regression model of the factors influencing the inflation processes in Ukraine and determine the multiplier effect of each factor on the resulting indicator. The object of the research is the inflation processes in Ukraine in 2014-2018. Mathematical modelling methods have been used in the base of the analysis. A correlation-regression analysis of inflation factors in Ukraine was conducted in the article. As a result of research, the presence of inflation of propositions (charges) in Ukraine is well-proven, that was conditioned in a greater degree by the increase of cost of commodities and services of natural monopolies, devaluation of national currency and increase in average salary. The value of inflation multipliers of these parameters and their functional influence on the cost-of-living-index have been determined. The dependence of the increase of the average salary is set on the change of the level of the minimum one has been determined. The most optimal directions of stimulant fiscal and monetary politics for the increase of the efficiency of government regulation of inflationary processes in Ukraine have been offered.

Нюренбергер Лариса Борисовна, доктор экономических наук, профессор, зав. кафедрой бизнеса в сфере услуг, Новосибирский государственный университет экономики и управления «НИНХ». 630099, г. Новосибирск, ул. Каменская, 56. E-mail: l.b.nyurenberger@nsuem.ru, ORCID: 0000-0002-6254-3866. Петренко Никита Евгеньевич, аспирант, Новосибирский государственный универси- тет экономики и управления «НИНХ». 630099, г. Новосибирск, ул. Каменская, 56. E-mail: n.e.petrenko@edu.nsuem.ru, ORCID: 0000-0002-3321-7981/ L.B. Nyurenberger, l.b.nyurenberger@nsuem.ru, ORCID: 0000-0002-6254-3866, N.E. Petrenko, n.e.petrenko@edu.nsuem.ru, ORCID: 0000-0002-3321-7981 Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation Цель исследования – анализ содержания и особенностей эволюции и обоснование значения городского туризма для социально-экономического развития региона. Материалы и методы исследования. Проведён сбор и анализ первичной и вторичной информации относительно эволюции и социально-экономического содержания городского туризма как одного из новых, формирующихся видов туристской деятельности. Результаты. Определено содержательное наполнение понятия «городской туризм» как краткосрочное посещение города по определённому комплексу причин, выявлены преимущества и негативные последствия развития городского туризма для региона, обоснован тезис о мультипликативном эффекте городского туризма и его воздействии на развитие смежных отраслей и экономику региона в целом. Заключение. Анализ эволюции и современного состояния развития городского туризма продемонстрировал, что данный вид туризма является перспективным, так как оказывает положительное воздействие на экономическую, социокультурную, инновационную сферы жизнедеятельности современного общества. Aim. The purpose of the study is to analyze the content and characteristics of evolution, as well as to substantiate the importance of urban tourism for the socio-economic development of the region. Materials and methods. The collection and analysis of primary and secondary data on the evolution and socio-economic content of urban tourism as one of the new, emerging types of tourist activity is carried out. Results. The content of urban tourism as a short-term visit to the city for certain reasons is determined, the advantages and negative consequences of urban tourism are revealed, the multiplier effect of urban tourism and its impact on the related industries and economy of the region are substantiated. Conclusion. Analysis of the evolution and the current state of urban tourism has shown that this type of tourism is promising, since it has a positive impact on the economic, socio-cultural and innovative development of modern society.

Настоящая статья посвящена вопросам формирования системного подхода при инициировании инвестиционных проектов регионального масштаба. На регион, как социально-экономическую систему воздействуют силы и интересы трёх уровней: частного бизнеса и отраслей внутри региона, самого региона в лице его администрации, метарегионального порядка в лице федеральных и межрегиональных органов и крупного бизнеса. Необходимо понимание того, что интересы самого региона как целостного системного образования могут не совпадать с интересами субъектов микроуровня, отраслевого и федерального уровня. Более того, отсутствие или слабость собственной позиции региональной администрации почти всегда имеет следствием недостижение потенциально возможных темпов роста в виду, к примеру, параллельной реализации взаимоконкурирующих за ресурсы проектов или «несвойственных» проектов, которые сложившаяся отраслевая структура региона не воспринимает и не мультиплицирует. В данной работе оценивается остаточный мультипликативный эффект от реализации условного мясоперерабатывающего завода в сравнительном контексте с проектом по добыче угля в условиях экономики Тувы. Остаточный (локализованный в Туве) мультипликативный эффект от реализации агропромышленного проекта (относительно общего объёма мультипликативного эффекта) в 2,5 раза превышает аналогичный показатель угольного проекта., This article is devoted to the formation of a systematic approach when initiating investment projects of a regional scale. The region, as a socio-economic system, is influenced by the forces and interests of three levels: the interests of private business and industries within the region, the interests of the region itself in the person of its administration, the interests of the metaregional order in the person of federal and interregional bodies and big business. It is necessary to understand that the interests of the region itself as an integral systemic formation may not coincide with the interests of the subjects of the micro, sectoral and federal levels. Moreover, the absence or weakness of the regional administration's own position almost always results in the failure to achieve potential growth rates in view of, for example, the parallel implementation of projects competing for resources or «unusual» projects that the existing sectorial structure of the region does not perceive and does not multiply. This paper evaluates the residual multiplier effect from the implementation of a conventional meat processing plant in a comparative context with the project for coal mining in the conditions of the Tuva economy. The residual (localized in Tuva) multiplier effect from the implementation of the agro-industrial project (relative to the total volume of the multiplier effect) is 2,5 times higher than that of the coal project.

Cyclical fluctuations in the market economy have been the focus of attention of researchers for many years. Today, the process of reproduction is becoming cyclical, which is a problem of interest of all economic agents. The purpose of the article is to reveal the main causes of economic cycles, their nature and to show the effect of cyclical fluctuations on the production process and employment, as well as in the development of a new socio-economic society as a whole. The article shows the essence of each stage, their disadvantages and advantages, influence on the formation of a creatively developed person.

In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying the short-run effects of fiscal stimuli on GDP and its industry-level value added components. We illustrate the use of the model by estimating the short-run effect of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package on China's GDP. Our results show that this stimulus package might have led to an increase in GDP of more than 3 trillion yuan, which is 9.5% of China's GDP in 2008. This result compares well to actual changes in GDP as observed in the years immediately after the introduction of the package. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This study aims to measure and analyze the application of the halal concept in tourism attractions of the Tsunami Aceh Museum and the PLTD Floating Ship (Kapal Apung PLTD) sites in the Banda City, Indonesia. It also attempts to assess the contributions of halal tourism to the economy, measured by income multiplier effects. Of 1,243 halal tourism visitors, entrepreneurs surrounding the halal objects, and employees in the halal tourism sites, 93 of them were selected as the sample of the study using the proportionate stratified random sampling technique. Observation, interviews, and questionnaires were used to gather the primary data. Majority of the respondents perceived that the tourist attractions of the Tsunami Aceh Museum and the PLTD Floating Ship had implemented the halal tourism concept. The study also found that those halal tourism objects have contributed to the enhancement of the community's economic development, indicated by the Keynesian Local Income Multiplier and Ratio Income Multiplier of greater than one. To further enhance the community income surrounding the halal tourism objects, the halal tourism facilities should be well-equipped and ensured a conducive surrounding environment.========================================================================================================Bagaimana Kontribusi Pariwisata Halal terhadap Perekonomian Masyarakat? Kajian pada Museum Tsunami dan PLTD Apung Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur dan menganalisis penerapan konsep halal pada objek wisata Museum Tsunami Aceh dan situs Kapal Apung PLTD (Kapal Apung PLTD) di Kota Banda, Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga mencoba untuk menilai kontribusi pariwisata halal bagi perekonomian, diukur dengan efek pengganda pendapatan. Dari 1.243 pengunjung wisata halal, pengusaha di sekitar objek wisata halal, dan tenaga kerja di lokasi wisata halal tersebut, 93 orang di antaranya dipilih sebagai sampel penelitian dengan menggunakan teknik proportate stratified random sampling. Pengamatan, wawancara, dan kuesioner digunakan untuk mengumpulkan data primer. Mayoritas responden menilai tempat wisata Museum Tsunami Aceh dan Kapal Apung PLTD sudah menerapkan konsep wisata halal. Hasil penelitian juga menemukan bahwa obyek wisata halal tersebut telah memberikan kontribusi terhadap peningkatan pembangunan ekonomi masyarakat yang ditunjukkan dengan Keynesian Local Income Multiplier dan Ratio Income Multiplier lebih besar dari satu. Untuk lebih meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat sekitar obyek wisata halal, maka sarana wisata halal harus dilengkapi dengan baik dan terjaminnya lingkungan sekitar yang kondusif.

Innovative financial instruments, in the context of the funding schemes of the European Union, are different from funding by way of direct subsidies. These financial instruments can be divided in two large groups: instruments offering risk capital and equity capital and debt instruments. The instruments help to engage resources from the private sector in projects which might be considered too risky without the said instruments and the implementation of which would be impossible or related to significantly higher expenses for the promoter of the project. As seen from Estonia’s perspective, up until now the use and impact of innovative financial instruments have generally met the expectations. In view of the diversity of areas and target groups of the innovative financial instruments planned within the framework of European Union’s Financial Framework 2014-2020, it may be presumed that several new instruments will be successfully implemented in Estonia.

There is a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of a biomedical industry on the surrounding economy. The assessment of this issue would allow policy makers to identify the impact on production, local employment and wages in addition to public sector costs. With this aim, the paper evaluates the socio-economic impact of a medical devices firm’s decision to set up its manufacturing plants in Italy, i.e. the effect of industrial activity on employment, earnings and output, using information on production processes to derive the associated interactions with suppliers for the primary industry and secondary industries. Besides being amongst the major contributors of health outcomes, medical technology manufacturers provide additional benefits to public sector and to the economy as a whole. This suggests that a broad perspective needs to be endorsed by policy makers when deciding about the introduction of new technologies in the healthcare sector in order to achieve optimal outcomes for society as a whole.

The study of private sector response to fiscal policy decisions is a topic of macroeconomic research which has drawn much attention throughout the years. Recently, in the context of the economic crisis, a number of issues in the area of fiscal policy are being revisited and reevaluated. This paper attempts to study the impact of fiscal policy on private consumption and economic growth in two European Union countries, Greece and Poland. We find that there is a strong connection between fiscal policy and output in Poland. For Greece, the influence of fiscal policy on output is irrelevant.

The aim of this research is to analyse the multiplier effect of zakâh revenue in DKI Jakarta. A study case at Badan Amil Zakat, Infak, and Sadaqah (BAZIS) DKI Jakarta. Least square method is used to analyze the data. The coefficients will be used to calculate the multiplier effect of zakâh-revenue and it will be compared with the economy without zakah revenue. The results showed 2,522 multiplier effects of zakâh-revenue and 3.561 multiplier effect ofeconomic income without zakâh-revenue. This suggests that the management of zakat in BAZIS Jakarta still can have a significant influence on the economy.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v4i1.2533

This paper presents an analysis of the multiplier impact generated by the tourism sector in Mexico in the year 2013. The importance of studying this sector, in particular, lies in its contribution to the National GDP of over 8% and in its promising development based on services’ quality and the preferred destination of the developed countries. In addition, it is proposed to simulate the multiplier impact that will generate two current events, as they are, the construction of the new International Airport of Mexico and the increase of the investment in Fibers. The results were very punctual, a better distribution of the investment is generated, it is invested in the tourism sector, mainly in variables such as value added and remuneration.

This paper examines the multiplier effect of Government spending on the non-oil Saudi Arabia economic growth. We focus on non-oil GDP rather than total GDP because activity in the oil sector is mainly determined by circumstances in the international oil market. To reach this aim, we use several econometric tools as causality tests, co-integration test and structural VAR, to estimate the short- and long-run effects of government expenditures on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. In this empirical investigation, we employ annual data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. Our empirical findings indicate an overall pro-growth effect of government expenditures, with significant positive fiscal multiplier in the health and agriculture sectors. By empirically assessing fiscal multipliers across diverse non-oil sectors, we perceived that variations in government expenditures are linked to same directional deviations in the growth of non-oil GDP during peak economic horizons. Especially, we find that if the economy is at a peak, we obtain suitable fiscal multipliers. We greatly appreciate the financial support by the Shiekh Al-Fouzan Saudi Macroeconomic Forecasting Chair (SMFChair), at Imam University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We would especially like to thank the directors chair Dr. Khaled Almeshal for his constant and continuous encouragement during the achievement of this work. Scopus

The article substantiates the importance of taking into account indirect effects of the programs, projects, activities (mainly social) when deciding on the need to implement them. The problem of providing society with decent living conditions is studied. The article proves that in spite of some positive trends in the Russian construction market the issues of housing availability do not lose their significance. It notes that a variety of approaches to solving this problem have been developed, that is why it is critical to assess the effectiveness of each solution in order to choose the most suitable one. One of the tools for alleviating this problem – a program of housing construction savings – is discussed in detail; by means of the specially designed universal computational model we determine fiscal effectiveness of this program application in the Sverdlovsk Oblast. The analysis shows that the accounting of multiplier effect reveals the full range of possible effects of the program that can significantly affect the adoption of the decision to initiate actions necessary for their implementation

This research assessed the impact of oil palm plantation development to the acceleration of economic development of community in effort to alleviate poverty in rural areas. The research was conducted through survei with descriptive method. Information obtained through the approach of Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA). The results obtained by oil palm plantation activities in the rural areas created a figure amounting to 3.03 of multiplier effect, especially in employment and business opportunity. In year 2003, the farmer’s welfare index of rural areas amounting to 1.72. It means the growth of the farmer’s welfare increased by 172 percent. In the period of 2003-2006, farmers' welfare index was 0.18 and the period of 2006- 2009 also experienced positive at 0.12. It means the welfare of farmers during this period increased by 12 percent.