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The objective of the study was to verify the applicability and usefulness of time series decomposition in analyzing the variability of timber prices and supply in Poland. The employed multiplicative model was the product of four components: cyclical, seasonal, and irregular fluctuations and the long-term trend. The elements of the time series were determined by means of the Census X11 method, while cyclicality was separated from the trend employing the Hodrick&ndash, Prescott filter. Data included quarterly information about the supply (volume) and prices (value) of the timber sold by the State Forests in the years 2005&ndash, 2018. Analyses were performed for tree species with the greatest economic significance, that is, pine, oak, spruce, beech, birch, and alder, and for their most popular assortments: general purpose large-diameter timber (W0) and medium-diameter timber (S2A). Time series decomposition of quarterly timber production volume and prices revealed irregular, seasonal, and cyclic fluctuations. Within an annual time horizon, irregular fluctuations accounted on average for 6.7% and 28% of overall variability in timber prices and supply, respectively, they exhibited low amplitudes (+5%, &minus, 25%, respectively). Cyclical fluctuations were primarily found for prices and were characterized by substantial variations in cycle length (2&ndash, 4 years) and change amplitude (3&ndash, 27 Euros). Cyclical fluctuations in timber prices and supply were usually negatively correlated with each other: the upper turning points of price cycles fell near the lower turning points of supply cycles (with a shift of 1 to 3 quarters). The seasonality of prices was also inversely correlated with supply: quarters with low supply exhibited higher prices and vice versa. Seasonal fluctuations were more pronounced for timber supply (36%) as compared to timber prices (20.3%). Different seasonality patterns were found for hardwood and softwood. The lowest supply of softwood was found in the first quarter and the highest in the third quarter (spruce) or fourth quarter (pine). The supply of hardwood was the highest in the first quarter and the lowest in the third quarter.

Input-output models were constructed to describe the economic impacts of timber product outputs in Ohio and its three timber market regions - the Northeast, West, and Southeast - for 2012. Impact Analysis for PLANning was used to describe these impacts in terms of employment, output, and value added based on 1) the total value of outputs delivered to market by each region’s logging sector and 2) a per-unit change in the regionalized delivered value of one million board feet (MMBF) of hardwood sawtimber. Direct impacts of timber products were greatest in the Northeast (for output and value added) and Southeast (for employment). The total economic impacts of timber products in Ohio were 2,880 employees, $287 million in output, and $147 million in value added. The per-unit impact results were more varied due to regional differences in economies and timber price determinants. Employment and output economic impacts per MMBF were both highest in the Southeast. The employment levels directly and indirectly associated with each MMBF in the West were higher than the Northeast. Value added per MMBF was highest in the Northeast across impacts.

This paper suggests solutions for a longstanding problem in managing lodgepole pine forests -- that of managing individual stands to reach their planned rotation age, despite serious hazard from bark beetles and wildfire. The management regimes presented yield merchantable thinning products. The 80-year sawtimber rotation can be achieved using these management recommendations. Thinning at 30 years of age is central to achieving the recommended alternative management regimes. The authors suggest that agencies give roundwood operators a portion of the thinning stemwood as payment. Management regimes that provide attainable rotations are presented in summary tables, by three site index classes and a number of initial stand density classes.