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The SARS-CoV-2 leads to a worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused tremendous damage to the world. In this paper, we develop a dynamic model in vivo, fitting and estimating parameters for T lymphocytes and pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6 in patients with mild and severe COVID-19 at Yale New Haven Hospital through the GWMCMC algorithm. Meanwhile, we also analyze the structural identifiability and practical identifiability of the model. Further, we add time-varying parameters to the model, using the least squares method to perform data fitting and parameter estimation on survivors and non-survivors of the Italian infectious disease hospital. Then analyze the similarities and differences in immune response mechanisms between the two countries. Finally, we demonstrate the existence and stability of the equilibrium state of the model and analyze the Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium state by using the central manifold theory and normal form theory. This result may explain the recurrence of infection in some COVID-19 patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study a tumor-immune system interaction model with dendritic cell therapy and immune response delay. First, it is shown that the ODE version of the model has a Bogdanov--Takens (BT) singularity or a weak focus with multiplicity at most 1 for different parameter values. As the parameters vary, the ODE model undergoes supercritical Hopf bifurcation and supercritical BT bifurcation. Our analysis indicates that there exists a threshold value of the activation rate of T cells, below which tumor immune escape occurs, above or at which T cells and tumor cells coexist in the form of a stable periodic oscillation or steady state. Second, we study how the immune response delay affects the dynamics of the model. Our results reveal that the delay can destabilize the stable positive equilibrium through Hopf bifurcation. Furthermore, the direction and stability of Hopf bifurcation are derived. When there is a cusp, we show that it is a BT singularity for any delay and the delay model also undergoes BT bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the theoretical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the dynamical behaviors of a multiple delayed HIV-1 infection model which describes the interactions of humoral, cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) immune responses, and two modes of transmission that are the classical virus-to-cell infection and the direct cell-to-cell transmission are investigated. The model incorporates three delays, including the delays of cell infection, virus production and activation of immune response. We first prove the well-posedness of the model, and calculate the biological existence of equilibria and the reproduction numbers, which contain virus infection, humoral immune response, CTL immune response, CTL immune competition, and humoral immune competition. Further, the threshold conditions for the local and global stability of the equilibria for infection-free, immune-free, antibody response, CTL response, and interior are established by utilizing linearization method and the Lyapunov functionals. The existence of Hopf bifurcation with immune delay as a bifurcation parameter is investigated by using the bifurcation theory. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results and reveal the effects of some key parameters on viral dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mathematical model for the quantitative analysis of the interaction between cancer cells and cell-mediated immune system with two discrete-time delays, considering the role of antibodies, is studied in this paper. The model is analyzed both analytically and numerically to understand the dynamics of interaction delay and proliferation enhancement effect delay in the eradication of cancer. Hopf bifurcation occurs when one-time delay crosses the critical value in the absence of the other. It is also observed that as we increase any of the delays, it will increase the cancer burden. The analysis shows that a cancer-free state cannot be obtained solely by the killing rate of cytotoxic T-lymphocytes, but humoral response in combination with cell-mediated immune responses plays an important role to eradicate cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A two‐dimensional tumor‐immune model with the time delay of the adaptive immune response is considered in this paper. The model is designed to account for the interaction between cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) and cancer cells on the surface of a solid tumor. The model considers the surface growth as a major growth pattern of solid tumors in order to describe the existence of necrotic kernels. The qualitative analysis shows that the immune‐free equilibrium is unstable, and the behavior of positive equilibrium is closely related to the ratio of the immune killing rate to tumor volume growth rate. The positive equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the ratio is smaller than a critical value. Otherwise, the occurrence of the delay‐driven Hopf bifurcation at the positive equilibrium is proved. Applying the center manifold reduction and normal form method, we obtain explicit formulas to determine the properties of the Hopf bifurcation. The global continuation of a local Hopf bifurcation is investigated based on the coincidence degree theory. The results reveal that the time of the adaptive immune system taken to response to tumors can lead to oscillation dynamics. We also carry out detailed numerical analysis for parameters and numerical simulations to illustrate our qualitative analysis. Numerically, we find that shorter immune response time can lead to longer patient survival time, and the period and amplitude of a stable periodic solution increase with the increasing immune response time. When CTLs recruitment rate and death rate vary, we show how the ratio of the immune killing rate to tumor volume growth rate and the first bifurcation value change numerically, which yields further insights to the tumor‐immune dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we construct a mathematical model to investigate the interaction between the tumor cells, the immune cells and the helper T cells (HTCs). We perform mathematical analysis to reveal the stability of the equilibria of the model. In our model, the HTCs are stimulated by the identification of the presence of tumor antigens. Our investigation implies that the presence of tumor antigens may inhibit the existence of high steady state of tumor cells, which leads to the elimination of the bistable behavior of the tumor-immune system, i.e. the equilibrium corresponding to the high steady state of tumor cells is destabilized. Choosing immune intensity c as bifurcation parameter, there exists saddle-node bifurcation. Besides, there exists a critical value c ∗ , at which a Hopf bifurcation occurs. The stability and direction of Hopf bifurcation are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virus can disseminate between uninfected target cells via two modes, namely, the diffusion-limited cell-free viral spread and the direct cell-to-cell transfer using virological synapses. To examine how these two viral infection modes impact the viral dynamics, in this paper, we propose and analyze a general viral infection model that incorporates these two viral infection modes. The model also includes nonlinear target-cell dynamics, infinitely distributed intracellular delays, nonlinear incidences, and concentration-dependent clearance rates. It is shown that the numbers of secondly infected cells through the cell-free infection mode and the cell-to-cell infection mode both contribute to the basic reproduction number. Under some reasonable assumptions, the model exhibits a global threshold dynamics: the infection is cleared out if the basic reproduction number is less than one and the infection persists if the basic reproduction number is larger than one. Two specific examples are provided to illustrate that our theoretical results cover and improve some existing ones. When the underlying assumptions are not satisfied, oscillations via global Hopf bifurcation can be observed. A brief simulation of two-parameter bifurcation analysis is given to explore the joint impacts on viral dynamics for the interplay between nonlinear target-cell dynamics and intracellular delays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the dynamical behavior of a tumor–immune system (T–IS) interaction model with two discrete delays, namely the immune activation delay for effector cells (ECs) and activation delay for helper T cells (HTCs). By analyzing the characteristic equations, we establish the stability of two equilibria (tumor-free equilibrium and immune-control equilibrium) and the existence of Hopf bifurcations when two delays are used as the bifurcation parameter. Our results exhibit that both delays do not affect the stability of tumor-free equilibrium. However, they are able to destabilize the immune-control equilibrium and cause periodic solutions. We numerically illustrate how these two delays can change the stability region of the immune-control equilibrium and display the different impacts to the control of tumors. The numerical simulation results show that the immune activation delay for HTCs can induce heteroclinic cycles to connect the tumor-free equilibrium and immune-control equilibrium. Furthermore, we observe that the immune activation delay for HTCs can even stabilize the unstable immune-control equilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider the combined effects of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses on the competition dynamics of two Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) strains model. One of strains concerns a relatively slowly replicating and mildly cytopathic virus in the early infection (SIVMneCL8), the other is faster replicating and more cytopathic virus at later stages of the infection (SIVMne170). It is shown that the global dynamics of the ordinary differential equations can be determined by several threshold parameters, and we prove the global stability of the equilibria by rigorous mathematical analysis. To account for a series of infection mechanism leading to viral production, we incorporate time delays in the infection term. Using the methods of constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, we obtain the sufficient conditions for the global attractiveness of infection-free equilibrium with both virus strains going extinct, single-infection equilibrium with one of two virus strains out-competing the other one and the two strains coexisting infection equilibrium. We establish that the intracellular delays can destabilize the single-infection equilibrium leading to Hopf bifurcation and periodic oscillations. We show that introduction of immune responses is responsible for the coexistence of two virus strains and the intracellular delays may alter the two-strain competition results. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the theoretical conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]