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Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of the existing systems of natural hazard insurance in Europe, their structural characteristics and peculiarities. It also 0discusses the difficulties of adaptation of these systems to climate change and the growing number of natural disasters. Using Germany, Austria and Switzerland as examples, the paper demonstrates that based on the status quo, the Swiss monopoly insurance system, which is embedded within a unique direct voting environment, is most able to reduce micro- and macroeconomic disruptions resulting from natural hazards. 'Change in diversity' is seen to offer the best chance to arrive at insurance systems that are prepared for climate change while being adapted to local particularities. Efforts to harmonize national and regional systems as well as top-down EU initiatives are argued to be inadequate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are gaining prominence committing to respond to the threat of climate change, e.g., by developing local climate plans or strategies. However, little is known regarding the approaches and processes of plan development and implementation, or the success and effectiveness of proposed measures. Mainstreaming is regarded as one approach associated with (implementation) success, but the extent of integration of local climate policies and plans in ongoing sectoral and/or development planning is unclear. This paper analyses 885 cities across the 28 European countries to create a first reference baseline on the degree of climate mainstreaming in local climate plans. This will help to compare the benefits of mainstreaming versus dedicated climate plans, looking at policy effectiveness and ultimately delivery of much needed climate change efforts at the city level. All core cities of the European Urban Audit sample were analyzed, and their local climate plans classified as dedicated or mainstreamed in other local policy initiatives. It was found that the degree of mainstreaming is low for mitigation (9% of reviewed cities; 12% of the identified plans) and somewhat higher for adaptation (10% of cities; 29% of plans). In particular horizontal mainstreaming is a major effort for local authorities; an effort that does not necessarily pay off in terms of success of action implementation. This study concludes that climate change issues in local municipalities are best tackled by either, developing a dedicated local climate plan in parallel to a mainstreamed plan or by subsequently developing first the dedicated and later a mainstreaming plan (joint or subsequent "dual track approach"). Cities that currently provide dedicated local climate plans (66% of cities for mitigation; 26% of cities for adaptation) may follow-up with a mainstreaming approach. This promises effective implementation of tangible climate actions as well as subsequent diffusion of climate issues into other local sector policies. The development of only broad sustainability or resilience strategies is seen as critical. • Trends in mainstreaming climate change issues were analyzed for 885 cities EU-28. • EU cities provide numerous local mitigation (#664) and/or adaptation (#321) plans. • Mainstreaming was investigated as vertical and horizontal approach. • 9% of cities have mainstreamed mitigation LCP; 12% of mitigation LCPs mainstreamed. • 10% of cities have mainstreamed adaptation LCP; 29% of adaptation LCPs mainstreamed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts from the observation that development projects that create various forms of environmental injustice in Europe are an integral part of the process of biospheric expulsions, that is of pushing out groups from adequate land, water or air, as described by Saskia Sassen (2014). Apart from the environmental, socio-economic and health-impacts of ecologically destructive projects, there is an added dimension of concern that has been less obvious in the past, but tends to become increasingly pronounced in a warming world. Is it possible that accumulating environmental inequalities and forms of injustice can create new and "unnatural" vulnerabilities to the projected climate change impacts? The fi rst question that we tackle is whether environmental justice confl icts in Europe tend to take place disproportionately in climate hotspot areas, which are geographic spaces with above-average social sensitivity, potential vulnerability, potential social impact, potential environmental impacts or response capacity (ESPON, 2011). The second question concerns the distribution of diff erent characteristics of projects and of their associated confl icts in climate hotspot vs. non-hotspot areas. The fi nal goal is to establish, at a preliminary level, the emergence of a climate edge in Europe, a spatial confi guration in which vulnerability to climate change impacts is shaped by processes of biospheric expulsion, as postulated at a general level by Sassen. For the analysis, the most current data on environmental justice confl icts (444) from the Environmental Justice Atlas and ESPON climate impact projections, mapped on the Climate Adapt platform, are used. The expected result is to provide a preliminary description of the postulated climate edge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European agricultural production is influenced by the space-time distribution of regional climate. Because regional distributions of temperature and precipitation in Europe are affected by changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation, this paper aims at identifying the relationships between the wintertime Euro-Atlantic variability and wheat yield for the Member States of the European Union. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the 500 hPa geo-potential height fields is used to describe the wintertime climate variability, associating the leading 4 components of the EOF decomposition into known climatic patterns (such as North Atlantic Oscillation or Eastern Atlantic patterns). Using statistical methods such as ANOVA, linear regression and 'leave-one-out' cross-validation, those patterns are related to time series of wheat yield anomalies. It is shown that, depending on the country, there is a link between wheat yield and modes of winter climate variability, and this link differs from the relationship between temperature and precipitation with the modes. Looking ahead to the improvement of seasonal climate forecasts, it is expected that such meteorological patterns may be predicted with some accuracy, which in turn could improve crop yield forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies to date have interrogated United States (US) think tanks—and their networks—involved in climate change countermovement (CCM). Comparatively in Europe (EU), research has been lacking. This investigation therefore attends to that gap. We conducted a frame analysis on eight most prominent contrarian think tanks in six countries and four languages in Europe over 24 years (1994–2018). We found that there has been consistent contrarian framing through think tanks in the EU regarding climate change. Yet, we found a proliferation of contrarian outputs particularly in recent years. This uptick in quantity correlates with increases in CCM activities in the US. Our content analyses showed that well-worn climate change counter-frames spread by US CCM organizations were consistently circulated by European organizations as well. Moreover, we found that, as in the US, neoliberal ideological stances stood out as the most frequently taken up by contrarian think tanks in Europe. As such, we documented that CCM tropes and activities have flowed strongly between US and EU countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of future forests in global biogeochemical cycles will depend on how different tree species respond to climate. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of common tree species. We constructed a new network of 310 tree‐ring width chronologies from three common tree species (Quercus robur, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica) collected for different ecological, management and climate purposes in the south Baltic Sea region at the border of three bioclimatic zones (temperate continental, oceanic, southern boreal). The major climate factors (temperature, precipitation, drought) affecting tree growth at monthly and seasonal scales were identified. Our analysis documents that 20th century Scots pine and deciduous species growth is generally controlled by different climate parameters, and that summer moisture availability is increasingly important for the growth of deciduous species examined. We report changes in the influence of winter climate variables over the last decades, where a decreasing influence of late winter temperature on deciduous tree growth and an increasing influence of winter temperature on Scots pine growth was found. By comparing climate–growth responses for the 1943–1972 and 1973–2002 periods and characterizing site‐level growth response stability, a descriptive application of spatial segregation analysis distinguished sites with stable responses to dominant climate parameters (northeast of the study region), and sites that collectively showed unstable responses to winter climate (southeast of the study region). The findings presented here highlight the temporally unstable and nonuniform responses of tree growth to climate variability, and that there are geographical coherent regions where these changes are similar. Considering continued climate change in the future, our results provide important regional perspectives on recent broad‐scale climate–growth relationships for trees across the temperate to boreal forest transition around the south Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing multiple climatic and non-climatic variables affecting one region at the same time is a crucial aspect to support climate adaptation action. This publication presents a method to display relevant measures of any three adaptation relevant parameters (or optionally their projected future changes) at once on a map by allocating them to multiple transparency levels of the three primary colors of additive color mixing (red, green, and blue). The overlay of information allows the combined assessment of the regional exposures. The method is demonstrated by two examples based on an ensemble of regional climate projections analyzed for 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming periods. The first example shows the increasing number of people at risk for summer climate extremes under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming by combining projected increases in tropical nights and summer intense precipitation days with today's population density. Under 3 °C global warming, many heavily populated areas across Europe are affected by both heat stress and summer precipitation extremes, whereas under 1.5 °C global warming, heat stress regions are restricted to southern Europe and the large settlements along the Eastern Mediterranean coast. A second example combines daily mean and minimum and maximum summer temperatures and highlights the regional expansion and the increasing robustness of projected mean summer warming with rising global warming levels, as well as the regional day to night differences of the warming signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 were analysed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Three widely used and recognized high‐resolution observation‐based gridded precipitation products, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time‐series data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis data and the EU‐FP6 project ENSEMBLES derived data set (EOBS), were used and compared. Comparison among different products showed that the CRU used a considerably lower number of gauge stations (maximum 36) in the construction of gridded product over Germany and should be used with great caution for other applications, and overall CRU presented less precipitation and smaller inter‐annual variability; GPCC and EOBS agreed well in the spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation, as well as the identified trends. The spatiotemporal analysis of trends showed that trends in precipitation during 1951–2013 were, in most cases, highly nonlinear and varying over time. In particular, the spring, summer and autumn precipitation showed large variations in trends. Therefore, the assumption of linear trends on which previous studies were based is invalid. Annual precipitation showed increasing trends in over 66% of Germany (particularly northern and eastern Germany), and the magnitude of increasing trends were generally enhanced over time, e.g. GPCC showed that the average magnitude of increasing trends rose from 6.3% for the 1951–1980 period to 12% for the 1951–2013 period. There were considerable spatial and temporal variabilities in trends in seasonal precipitation totals over Germany. This study is among one of the first studies applying the EEMD method to a comprehensive analysis of time‐varying trends in precipitation over Germany, which is expected to improve our understanding of the complex and nonlinear regional climate system. Spatial and temporal patterns of the EEMD‐derived trend of the four seasonal precipitation totals (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON; the trend is presented as the percentage of the climatology mean during the whole period 1951–2013 for easy interpretation and comparison) from EOBS for five different periods, with ending years of 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2013. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the dynamic of Neolithic settlement on a local scale and its connection to climate variability is often difficult due to missing on-site climate reconstructions from natural archives. Here we bring together archaeological settlement data and a regional climate reconstruction from precipitation-sensitive trees. Both archives hold information about regional settlement dynamics and hydroclimate variability spanning the time of the first farming communities, the so called Linearbandkeramik (LBK) in Bavaria, Germany. Precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series from subfossil oak are used to develop a spring-summer precipitation reconstruction (5700–4800 B.C.E.) representative for southern Germany. Early Neolithic settlement data from Bavaria, mainly for the duration of the LBK settlement activities, are critically evaluated and compared to this unique regional hydroclimate reconstruction as well as to reconstructions of Greenland temperature, summer sea surface temperature, delta 18O and global solar irradiance to investigate the potential impact of climate on Neolithic settlers and their settlement dynamic during the LBK. Our hydroclimate reconstruction demonstrates an extraordinarily high frequency of severe dry and wet spring-summer seasons during the entire LBK, with particularly high year-to-year variability from 5400 to 5101 B.C.E. and with lower fluctuations until 4801 B.C.E. A significant influence of regional climate on the dynamic of the LBK is possible (e.g. around 4960 B.C.E.), but should be interpreted very carefully due to asynchronous trends in settlement dynamics. Thus, we conclude that even when a climate proxy such as tree rings that has excellent spatio-temporal resolution is available, it remains difficult to establish potential connections between the settlement dynamic of the LBK and climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human history is shaped by landmark discoveries in science and technology. However, across both time and space the rate of innovation is erratic: Periods of relative inertia alternate with bursts of creative science and rapid cascades of technological innovations. While the origins of the rise and fall in rates of discovery and innovation remain poorly understood, they may reflect adaptive responses to exogenously emerging threats and pressures. Here we examined this possibility by fitting annual rates of scientific discovery and technological innovation to climatic variability and its associated economic pressures and resource scarcity. In time-series data from Europe (1500–1900CE), we indeed found that rates of innovation are higher during prolonged periods of cold (versus warm) surface temperature and during the presence (versus absence) of volcanic dust veils. This negative temperature–innovation link was confirmed in annual time-series for France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (1901–1965CE). Combined, across almost 500 years and over 5,000 documented innovations and discoveries, a 0.5°C increase in temperature associates with a sizable 0.30–0.60 standard deviation decrease in innovation. Results were robust to controlling for fluctuations in population size. Furthermore, and consistent with economic theory and micro-level data on group innovation, path analyses revealed that the relation between harsher climatic conditions between 1500–1900CE and more innovation is mediated by climate-induced economic pressures and resource scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in southern Europe. We conclude that there has been some misusage of the traditional blocking definition in the attribution of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, native to South East Asia, is listed as one of the worst invasive vector species worldwide. In Europe the species is currently restricted to Southern Europe, but due to the ongoing climate change, Ae. albopictus is expected to expand its potential range further northwards. In addition to modelling the habitat suitability for Ae. albopictus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe by means of the maximum entropy approach, we here focused on the drivers of the habitat suitability prediction. We explored the most limiting factors for Aedes albopictus in Europe under current and future climatic conditions, a method which has been neglected in species distribution modelling so far. Ae. albopictus is one of the best-studied mosquito species, which allowed us to evaluate the applied Maxent approach for most limiting factor mapping. We identified three key limiting factors for Ae. albopictus in Europe under current climatic conditions: winter temperature in Eastern Europe, summer temperature in Southern Europe. Model findings were in good accordance with commonly known establishment thresholds in Europe based on climate chamber experiments and derived from the geographical distribution of the species. Under future climatic conditions low winter temperature were modelled to remain the most limiting factor in Eastern Europe, whereas in Central Europe annual mean temperature and summer temperatures were modelled to be replaced by summer precipitation, respectively, as most limiting factors. Changes in the climatic conditions in terms of the identified key limiting factors will be of great relevance regarding the invasive potential of the Ae. albopictus. Thus, our results may help to understand the key drivers of the suggested range expansion under climate change and may help to improve monitoring programmes. The applied approach of investigating limiting factors has proven to yield valuable results and may also provide valuable insights into the drivers of the prediction of current and future distribution of other species. This might be particularly interesting for other vector species that are of increasing public health concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT As both global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models have their own advantages, the most comprehensive picture of changes in precipitation and their uncertainty ranges can be achieved by comparing the results of both model categories. Here we have evaluated seasonal changes in indices representing excess or scarcity of precipitation in Europe on the basis of simulations performed with ten GCMs with a reasonably high spatial resolution and, for comparison, with five RCMs driven by one and the same GCM. We found no fundamental differences between the GCMs and RCMs in the projected tendency towards a more extreme precipitation climate, characterized by increases both in indices representing wet conditions and also dry conditions. Most evidently in the Northern European summer and Southern European winter, the differences in the responses of the various indices between the present sets of GCMs and RCMs could be explained by the dissimilar changes in seasonal mean precipitation. The scatter among the projected changes was in general much smaller for the RCM than for the GCM simulations. The projections of individual RCMs mainly fall within the interval determined by the GCM projections. This indicates that the GCM ensemble yielded more comprehensive estimates for the uncertainty ranges in the extreme precipitation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the aspect of future climate change, it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions might change on the regional scale in order to map out adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent RCM simulations provided by the ENSEMBLES project are used to analyse changes in dry and wet conditions in Europe by the mid of the 21st century under the A1B emission scenario. Eight RCMs are selected to capture the uncertainties of the projected changes. An empirical statistical error correction approach is applied to modelled daily mean air temperature and precipitation amount to account for RCM errors, and commonly used drought indices-the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the self calibrated Palmer Z-Index (scZI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI)-are calculated. Changes in the mean, in interannual variability, and in frequency, length, distance, magnitude, and area of dry and wet events are investigated. The statistical significance of the projected multi-model mean changes and the according uncertainties are analysed for nine European subregions. Furthermore, distributional changes of the dry and wet spell characteristics are assessed. Changes in the mean, and in dry and wet event characteristics show the most pronounced changes towards drier and wetter conditions in the southern- and northernmost European subregions, respectively. Here, the changes are highly significant and confident, while the projected changes are more dissonant for the other subregions. Severe changes in the extremes of event length, distance, magnitude, and area particularly arise in the southern- and northernmost European subregions. The projected changes in interannual variability are less significant and confident. However, significantly increasing interannual variability is projected in regions with pronounced changes in the mean towards wetter as well as towards drier conditions. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article identifies the factors contributing to the return period of windstorms in Europe. Assessment of the magnitude and frequency of extreme wind speed plays a fundamental role in safety, engineering and reinsurance applications and preparations for extreme weather. It is evident that windstorms and strong winds represent a major loss for reinsurance companies. Factors contributing to the occurrence of wind storms include unstable surface wind field and the continued changes in the global climate.

The article offers information on the impacts of persistent atmospheric circulation for the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes in Europe. Using the Hess-Brezowsky catalogue of circulation type and temperature data, the connection between atmospheric circulation and surface air temperature anomalies is studied. The experiment shows that the persistence of circulation patterns is related to surface air temperature anomalies. The severity of temperature extremes and occurrence became more evident under the condition of more persistent circulation. It is inferred that the worsening and frequency of heat waves in Europe is related to enhanced atmospheric circulation. The abnormalities in atmosphere is associated on the worsening climate change.

Aim Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change. Location Europe. Methods We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change. Results Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found. Main conclusions This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate is an important determinant of species distributions. We assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past. Location Europe. Methods A 10′ × 10′ resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931–60 climatic conditions under the HadCM3 climate model for four future climate scenarios based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions (SRES scenarios). Three levels of tolerance ranges determined the thresholds for which future conditions are considered analogous to 1931–60 (pre-warming) conditions. Results For many parts of Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous climate conditions will be smaller and further away in the future than they are now. For any location in Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous mean annual temperature conditions will, on average, be reduced between 23.7% (B1 scenario) and 49.7% (A1FI scenario) by 2100 when assuming a medium tolerance range. The mean distance to these areas will, on average, increase between 272 km (B1) and 645 km (A1FI). These changes are more pronounced for temperature than for water availability variables and also for narrow tolerance ranges compared to wide tolerance ranges. Using a combined measure of both temperature and precipitation variables, areas with prewarming analogous conditions are predicted to be in a more northeasterly direction in the future, but there are considerable regional differences within Europe. Main conclusions The results suggest that, for some parts of Europe, the loss of area with any suitable climatic conditions represents the greatest risk to biodiversity, but in other regions the distances that species may have to move to reach suitable climatic conditions may be a greater problem. Quantifying the distance and direction in analyses of change of climatically suitable areas can add additional information for climate change risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To produce a statistical stratification of the European environment, suitable for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent, and to provide strata for modelling exercises and reporting. Location A ‘Greater European Window’ with the following boundaries: 11° W, 32° E, 34° N, 72° N. Methods Twenty of the most relevant available environmental variables were selected, based on experience from previous studies. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to explain 88% of the variation into three dimensions, which were subsequently clustered using an ISODATA clustering routine. The mean first principal component values of the classification variables were used to aggregate the strata into Environmental Zones and to provide a basis for consistent nomenclature. Results The Environmental Stratification of Europe (EnS) consists of 84 strata, which have been aggregated into 13 Environmental Zones. The stratification has a 1 km2 resolution. Aggregations of the strata have been compared to other European classifications using the Kappa statistic, and show ‘good’ comparisons. The individual strata have been described using data from available environmental databases. The EnS is available for noncommercial use by applying to the corresponding author. Main conclusions The Environmental Stratification of Europe has been constructed using tried and tested statistical procedures. It forms an appropriate stratification for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent and for the provision of strata for modelling exercises and reporting at the European scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric circulations, and related climate conditions, exert a strong influence on the transport and ultimate deposition of atmospheric pollutants. One potential outcome of climate change is alteration of atmospheric circulation patterns. The first stage in the development of a downscaling methodology to assess the influence of these possible future atmospheric circulation changes on transport and deposition of atmospheric pollutants over Europe is described. Firstly, the main modes of regional-scale circulation over a domain covering the North Atlantic and Europe are determined using principal components analysis of sea level pressure patterns. To determine whether the principal components represent circulation types found in reality, and show realistic relationships with surface temperature and precipitation amount, they are compared to the Lamb Weather Types, Central England Temperature, and England and Wales Rainfall. There are statistically significant relationships between some of the principal components and aqueous and ambient pollutant concentrations at 5 selected stations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme monitoring network. Although, for any one combination of principal component and pollutant variable, the level of explanation can be quite small, notwithstanding some levels of variance explained for individual combinationsbeing up to 69% (45% for the winter season, described in detail here). Because the pollution climate at any one location is a function ofmany combinations of circulation/pollution relationships, despite the relatively small magnitude of variance explained for individual combinations in this study, the results confirm the utility of atmospheric circulation principal components in deriving downscaling relationships for surface pollution behaviour (via eventual multiple regressions, not reported in this paper), as well as giving further insight into the climatic influences on air and precipitation chemistry over Euro [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical series of monthly mean temperatures from 27 Italian stations, updated to 1993, are analysed. Building on previous analysis thefollowing new results were obtained: there is an upward trend in seasonal and annual temperatures during the last 20 years; a positive trend, stronger at southern stations compared to northern stations, is apparent from 1920 to 1950, after when temperature shows no significant trend until 1985 when it starts to increase again. Data from Northern Italy show similar characteristics to a subset of data from a global climatic database, for the period 1881-1988. This comparison, however, suggests that good station coverage is important for the construction of a more detailed picture of seasonal climate variability." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]