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This paper proposes a modeling approach for characterizing the probability of wildfire ignition caused by faults on power distribution systems. The proposed model serves as a starting point in research literature to illustrate, from an analytical perspective, the many factors that influence wildfire ignitions in power distribution systems. This paper presents the series of events that leads to power-system-related wildfire ignitions, and characterizes the wildfire ignition probability as a combination of the probability that a fault occurs along a power distribution line segment, and the probability that the fault results in the sustained ignition of a vegetation fuel bed surrounding the line. The proposed model integrates a variety of data including environmental conditions, power system protection settings, and power system line flows. A case study is performed on a test 33-bus distribution system using observed historical weather data from a high-threat fire district in California. The California case study is utilized to investigate the effects of three primary factors (wind speed, line congestion, and protection settings) on wildfire ignition probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some of the deadliest wildfires in the U.S., such as California’s 2018 wildfires, have been ignited by power systems. In an effort to prevent and minimize the ignition of wildfires, or control them if ignited, energy companies have developed wildfire mitigation plans. This paper provides energy companies and power system operators, engineers, researchers, and suppliers an overview of the state-of-the-art studies that address key topics in these wildfire mitigation plans and compares the wildfire mitigation plans of several energy companies. The key topics include grid design and system hardening, asset management and inspection, situational awareness and forecasting, operational response, vegetation management, public safety power shutoff, and risk-spend efficiency. This paper also presents a comparison of several energy companies’ decision-making criteria for initiating a public safety power shutoff. Finally, we discuss opportunities for future research studies that could help energy companies prevent wildfire ignitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Channel allocation has a direct and profound impact on the performance of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) networks. Considering the dynamic nature of vehicular environments, it is appealing to devise a blended strategy to perform effective resource sharing. In this paper, we exploit deep learning techniques predict vehicles’ mobility patterns. Then we propose an architecture consisting of centralized decision making and distributed channel allocation to maximize the spectrum efficiency of all vehicles involved. To achieve this, we leverage two deep reinforcement learning techniques, namely deep Q-network (DQN) and advantage actor-critic (A2C) techniques. In addition, given the time varying nature of the user mobility, we further incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) into DQN and A2C techniques. The combined system tracks user mobility, varying demands and channel conditions and adapt resource allocation dynamically. We verify the performance of the proposed methods through extensive simulations and prove the effectiveness of the proposed LSTM-DQN and LSTM-A2C algorithms using real data obtained from California state transportation department. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodological framework to evaluate the resilience, with the primary focus on performance degradation, of levee-protected electric power networks to flooding in a changing climate. To this end, a multi-disciplinary framework is established by integrating climate science, hydrology, and electric power network analysis. The framework quantifies the effect of climate change on flood hazard levels in a levee-protected area and the subsequent changes in the resilience of the electric power network. In the first step, the changes in the exposure of levee-protected regions to flooding hazard in a warming climate are calculated. Then, the probabilities of failure of power network components due to flooding under current and projected future climate are determined. Finally, the power system resilience index is used to assess the system resiliency for pre-flooding (baseline), historic flooding, and two projected future flooding scenarios. For demonstration, the proposed framework is applied to a levee-protected area in Northern California. The IEEE 118-bus standard test system is employed to represent the power network in the study area. Results reveal that climate change can considerably decrease the system resilience of the levee-protected electric power network. The findings of this study can contribute towards more resilient power network systems under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convergence bidding, a.k.a., virtual bidding, has been widely adopted in wholesale electricity markets in recent years. It provides opportunities for market participants to arbitrage on the difference between the day-ahead market locational marginal prices and the real-time market locational marginal prices. Given the fact that convergence bids (CBs) have a significant impact on the operation of electricity markets, it is important to understand how market participants strategically select their CBs in real-world electricity markets. We address this open problem with focus on the electricity market that is operated by the California Independent System Operator (ISO). In this regard, we use the publicly available electricity market data to learn, characterize, and evaluate different types of convergence bidding strategies that are currently used by market participants. Our analysis includes developing a data-driven reverse engineering method that we apply to three years of real-world California ISO market data. Our analysis involves feature selection and density-based data clustering. It results in identifying three main clusters of CB strategies in the California ISO market. Different characteristics and the performance of each cluster of strategies are analyzed. Interestingly, we unmask a common real-world strategy that does not match any of the existing strategic convergence bidding methods in the literature. Next, we build upon the lessons learned from the advantages and disadvantages of the existing real-world strategies in order to propose a new CB strategy that can significantly outperform them. Our analysis includes developing a new strategy for convergence bidding. The new strategy has three steps: net profit maximization by capturing price spikes, dynamic node labeling, and strategy selection algorithm. We show through case studies that the annual net profit for the most lucrative market participants can increase by over 40% if the proposed convergence bidding strategy is used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the frequency of power outages caused by recent crises, including high-impact natural disasters, power and energy supply must be more resilient and cost effective. Owing to this necessity, this article presents a grid-connected multicarrier energy microgrid, which can provide continuous energy for both electrical and heating load demands at a low cost. The model employs a demand response (DR) scheme based on time of use and integrates with the proposed microgrid. Several energy sources—photovoltaics, batteries, a combined heat and power unit, and associated dispatch strategy—are optimized using the deterministic mixed-integer linear programming algorithm. The proposed model is tested in a hospital of California, USA. The results show the benefits of the DR program in terms of techno-economic output when compared to the system without its implementation. Several simulation results also demonstrate the model’s effectiveness and resiliency in maintaining a continuous energy supply in the midst of power outages at various times of the year while lowering costs. Furthermore, a comparative study with the existing methods is performed, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed technique as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface nitrate (SSN) is an important parameter to characterize physical and biogeochemical processes, particularly to quantify oceanic new primary production, yet its remote estimation from satellite has been difficult due to the complex relationships between environmental variables and SSN. In the central and southern sections of the California Current System (CSCCS), this challenge is attempted through modeling, validation, and extensive tests in different oceanic scenarios. Specifically, using extensive SSN datasets collected by many cruises spanning 40 years (1978–2018) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) estimated sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl), a stacking random forest (SRF) model of SSN has been developed and validated with a spatial resolution of ~4 km. The model showed an overall performance of root mean square difference (RMSD) $=0.83\,\,\mu $ mol/kg, with coefficient of determination ($R^{2}) =0.87$ , mean bias $= -0.11\,\,\mu $ mol/kg, and mean ratio = 1.15 for SSN ranging between 0.05 and $19.90~\mu $ mol/kg ($N =1034$). Furthermore, tests of the model with its original parameterization for the upwelling period, oceanic period, and winter period all showed satisfactory performance with an overall RMSD of 1.95 $\mu $ mol/kg. The sensitivity of the SRF model to uncertainties of MODIS SST and Chl was examined, with induced uncertainties of $\le 2.22~\mu $ mol/kg. The extensive evaluation and sensitivity tests indicated the robustness of the SRF model in estimating SSN in the study area of the CSCCS, and it could serve as a robust approach for other regions once sufficient in situ SSN data are available for model calibration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]