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The reduced inertia levels in low-carbon power grids necessitate explicit constraints to limit frequency’s nadir and rate of change during scheduling. This can result in significant curtailment of renewable energy due to the minimum generation of thermal plants that are needed to provide frequency response (FR) and inertia. Additional consideration of fast FR, a dynamically reduced largest loss and under frequency load shedding (UFLS) allows frequency security to be achieved more cost effectively. This paper derives a novel constraint from the swing equation to contain the frequency nadir using all of these services. The expected cost of UFLS is found probabilistically to facilitate its comparison to the other frequency services. We demonstrate that this constraint can be accurately and conservatively approximated for moderate UFLS levels with a second order cone (SOC), resulting in highly tractable convex problems. Case studies performed on a Great Britain 2030 system demonstrate that UFLS as an option to contain single plant outages can reduce annual operational costs by up to $\pounds $ 559 m, 52% of frequency security costs. The sensitivity of this value to wind penetration, abundance of alternative frequency services, UFLS amount and cost is explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous methods have been proposed for forecasting load for normal days. Modeling of anomalous load, however, has often been ignored in the research literature. Occurring on special days, such as public holidays, anomalous load conditions pose considerable modeling challenges due to their infrequent occurrence and significant deviation from normal load. To overcome these limitations, we adopt a rule-based approach, which allows incorporation of prior expert knowledge of load profiles into the statistical model. We use triple seasonal Holt-Winters-Taylor (HWT) exponential smoothing, triple seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and triple seasonal intraweek singular value decomposition (SVD) based exponential smoothing. These methods have been shown to be competitive for modeling load for normal days. The methodological contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how these methods can be adapted to model load for special days, when used in conjunction with a rule-based approach. The proposed rule-based method is able to model normal and anomalous load in a unified framework. Using nine years of half-hourly load for Great Britain, we evaluate point forecasts, for lead times from one half-hour up to a day ahead. A combination of two rule-based methods generated the most accurate forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper deals with the identification of network configuration changes in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). The models of critical network configurations are stored in the form of a model bank. A recursive Bayesian approach which utilizes the output of the state estimation function of each model in the bank is used to identify the correct configuration of the network. The concept is demonstrated on a part of the U.K. Generic Distribution System (UKGDS) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal reactive power flow applications often model large numbers of discrete shunt devices as continuous variables, which are rounded to their nearest discrete value at the final iteration. This can degrade optimality. This paper presents novel methods based on probabilistic and adaptive threshold approaches that can extend existing security constrained optimal reactive power flow methods to effectively solve large-scale network problems involving discrete shunt devices. Loss reduction solutions from the proposed techniques were compared to solutions from the mixed integer nonlinear mathematical programming algorithm (MINLP) using modified IEEE standard networks up to 118 buses. The proposed techniques were also applied to practical large-scale network models of Great Britain. The results show that the proposed techniques can achieve improved loss minimization solutions when compared to the standard rounding method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]