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Coastal areas are of paramount importance due to their pivotal role in facilitating a wide range of socio-economic activities and providing vital environmental services. These areas, as the meeting points of land and sea, face significant risks of flooding due to the ongoing rise in sea levels caused by climate change. Additionally, they are susceptible to extreme events like king tides and large waves in the future. This paper introduces a framework for estimating the extreme total water level (TWL) by considering the effects of regional sea level rise (RSLR) resulting from a warming climate under RCP 8.5. It also incorporates the contributions of high tides, 100-year storm surge, and 100-year wave setup and run-up. The proposed framework is utilized to evaluate the occurrence of extreme coastal flooding along the Persian Gulf coast of Iran, an area that is home to significant industries in the country. The results offer an estimated increase of RSLR by 0.23 m from 2020 to 2050 considering an ensemble of climate model projections. Extreme wave setup values are estimated to range between 0.19 and 0.66 m, while storm surge is projected to vary from 0.4 to 1.44 m across the studied coastline. These together yield in a projected extreme TWL along the coastline within the range of 3.18 and 3.90 m above the current sea level. This significant increase in sea level could lead to the inundation of approximately 513 km2 of low-lying coastal land, which accounts for about 16% of the studied domain and could pose serious flooding threat to the people and their assets in this region. Finally, relative ranking of flooded zones (i.e., 6 zones) helps determine the areas with higher chance of flood exposure, at which investment in flood mitigation measures should be prioritized. [Display omitted] • Regional sea level rise is quantified using GCMs under RCP 8.5. • Flooding maps are shown under regional SLR, tides, storm surge, wave setup and run-up. • Extreme total water level is expected to inundate important ports in Persian Gulf coast of Iran by 2050. • Research projects that 513 km of low-lying coastal areas will be inundated due to extreme total water level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new framework to evaluate the resilience of lakes under climatic and anthropogenic droughts. The proposed hierarchical structure of criteria for assessing lake's resilience has four levels. The first level includes several indices such as long-term resilience, reliability, and implementation cost. In the second to fourth levels, four main resilience-based criteria (i.e. robustness, resourcefulness, redundancy, and rapidity) and some qualitative and quantitative sub-criteria are defined considering the factors affecting the ecological condition of lakes. To quantify the time series of the sub-criteria, a coupled SWAT-MODSIM-based simulation model has been applied. Also, the values of criteria and sub-criteria have been aggregated using the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach. After estimating the annual resilience time series, three resilience indices, namely the recovery time (Tr), loss of resilience (LOR), and final resilience (Res f), have been calculated. The normalized values of these indices and reliability criteria have been aggregated to evaluate the overall performance of lake restoration scenarios. To show the applicability of the proposed methodology, the Zarrinehrud river basin and Lake Urmia have been selected as the case study. As one of the largest hypersaline lakes globally, Lake Urmia suffers from drastic changes in its water body and a high level of salinization. Also, the Zarrinehrud river basin, located in the southeastern of Urmia Lake, is the most significant sub-basin of the lake and is responsible for supplying 41% of the total annual inflow of the lake. The restoration scenarios of Lake Urmia have been assessed from 2019 to 2049. Eventually, the most effective scenario, which has an average overall performance of 0.72, the implementation cost of 17.1 million dollars, and the uncertainty band of 0.05, has been selected. • A new methodology is proposed for evaluating resilience of lakes under drought. • Some new criteria are proposed for assessing the lake's ecological condition. • The evidential reasoning approach is utilized for combining resilience sub-criteria. • Three new resilience indices have been proposed for evaluating management scenarios. • The methodology has been applied to Lake Urmia and Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new methodology for quantifying the total resilience of water resources management scenarios. The climate change impacts on water supply and demand have been investigated using a calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and a MODSIM water allocation model. Several criteria have been defined to measure five aspects of water resources systems resilience. The first aspect defines resilience as system strength against crossing a performance threshold (reliability). In the second aspect, if the system crosses the performance threshold, the recovery rate of the system after a disturbance is evaluated. The violation from the performance threshold has been measured as the third aspect (vulnerability), which considers the failure's severity. The fourth aspect is the resilience under extreme events with unknown occurrence probability, which includes four sub-criteria, namely rapidity, robustness, resourcefulness, and redundancy (4 R). Finally, the fifth criterion considers the ecological condition of the system (ecological index). To compare water resources management scenarios (alternatives), an analytical evidential reasoning-based (ER) approach has been used. To show the applicability of the proposed methodology, it has been applied to the Zarrinehrud river basin, which is the leading water supplier of Lake Urmia in Iran. As one of the largest saline lakes globally, this lake has been suffering from drastic desertification and salinization in the past two decades. The grade-based results of the performance criteria are synthesized into a grade-based total resilience criterion to facilitate the comparison of water resources management scenarios. It is shown that a scenario which results in 40% reduction in agricultural water demand until 2023 has the highest resilience and an acceptable construction and operational cost. • A total resilience criterion is proposed for assessing water resources systems. • This criterion can evaluate the resilience against events with known and unknown probability. • The grade-based values of performance criteria are estimated and combined using ER. • The previous resilience evaluations /have underestimated the critical conditions. • The total cost and resilience of the selected scenario are 1272.5 × 106 $ and 0.85. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]