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This paper is concerned with the conclusion of the Stern Review that the cost of climate change could be as much as 20% of the global GDP. In this paper, I identify two major sources of variation in the estimates of the aggregate cost of climate change. One is the disagreement among the AOGCM models on the magnitude of climate change, and the other is the divergence among the economic models on how harmful these changes will be to the economy. The main conclusion of this paper is that only under the alarmist approach—which assumes both the most severe climate change and the most extreme estimate of climate change damage to the economy—we can be convinced that the cost of climate change is close to 20% of the global GDP in 2100. In most other cases, the cost will be under 1% of the global GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a major issue for all levels of government, global, national and local. Local authorities' responses to climate change have tended to concentrate on their role in reducing greenhouse gases. However, the scientific consensus is that we also need to adapt to unavoidable climate change. Spatial planning at a local level has a critical anticipatory role to play in promoting robust adaptation. This paper reviews the shift in local authorities' planning policies for climate change adaptation in the UK since 2000, and provides evidence of underlying attitudes amongst planning professionals to climate change. It shows that, while the issue of climate change is becoming recognized with respect to flood risk, the wider implications (for instance, for biodiversity and water resources) are not yet integrated into plans. The reasons for this lie in lack of political support and lack of engagement of the planning profession with climate change networks. But the paper also argues there are difficulties in acknowledging the need for adaptation at the local level, with the short-term horizons of local plans at odds with perceptions of the long-term implications of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A meta-modelling approach has been adopted to link simulations of low and high water flows with simulations of suitable climate space for a selection of fen and bog species with differing drought and flood tolerance. The linked meta-models were used to examine the impacts of socio-economic and climate change scenarios on wetlands in two contrasting regions of the UK. The hydrological model shows that low and high flows are sensitive to climate change and to the regional distribution of abstractions and discharges. Where there are large changes in urbanisation, flows are more sensitive to socio-economic change. The changes in high flows have little impact on the species selected, but changes in low flows result in a number of areas becoming marginal or unsuitable due to dryness. At the regional scale, adaptation options appear to be limited and mostly involve, for surface water-influenced wetlands, increased water imports (either directly through increased non-consumptive water demand or indirectly through river augmentation), which may not be consistent with the socio-economic scenario or be feasible. This paper shows, therefore, that changes in hydrological regime are important for the future of wetlands and that these may depend as much on the future socio-economic situation as the projected changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common RedshankTringa totanusbreeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of TwiteCarduelis flavirostriswintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed GodwitsLimosa limosa islandicathat shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The idea of climate has both statistical and social foundations. Both of these dimensions of climate change over time: climate, as defined by meteorological statistics, changes for both natural and anthropogenic reasons; and our expectations of future climate also change, as cultures, societies and knowledge evolves. This paper explores the interactions between these different expressions of climate change by focusing on the idea of ‘normal’ climates defined by statistics. We show how this idea came into being in meteorological circles and then review how this idea of climatic normality gets entangled with cultural and psychological processes. Using data from historical and predicted climates in the UK, we illustrate the significance of choosing different baseline ‘normals’ for retrospective and prospective interpretations of climate change. Since the choice of these statistical ‘normals’ reflects cultural, political and psychological preferences and practices as much as scientific ones, we argue that expectations of the climatic future are influenced by social as well as statistical norms. Seeing climate as co-constructed between the psycho-cultural constraints of society and the physical constraints of the material world offers a different way of thinking about the instabilities of climate and the ways we adapt to them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Global climate changes during the Cenozoic (65.5-0 Ma) caused major biological range shifts and extinctions. In northern Europe, for example, a pattern of few endemics and the dominance of wide-ranging species is thought to have been determined by the Pleistocene (2.59-0.01 Ma) glaciations. This study, in contrast, reveals an ancient subsurface fauna endemic to Britain and Ireland. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic approach, we found that two species of stygobitic invertebrates (genus Niphargus) have not only survived the entire Pleistocene in refugia but have persisted for at least 19.5 million years. Other Niphargus species form distinct cryptic taxa that diverged from their nearest continental relative between 5.6 and 1.0 Ma. The study also reveals an unusual biogeographical pattern in the Niphargus genus. It originated in north-west Europe approximately 87 Ma and underwent a gradual range expansion. Phylogenetic diversity and species age are highest in north-west Europe, suggesting resilience to extreme climate change and strongly contrasting the patterns seen in surface fauna. However, species diversity is highest in south-east Europe, indicating that once the genus spread to these areas (approximately 25 Ma), geomorphological and climatic conditions enabled much higher diversification. Our study highlights that groundwater ecosystems provide an important contribution to biodiversity and offers insight into the interactions between biological and climatic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses about the climate changes and its effect on the coastal birds of Great Britain. Great Britain, with its extensive coastline, lowlying land and internationally important waterbird populations, is likely to be much affected by climate change generally and by rising sea-levels in particular. Already climate change has been linked with earlier breeding and changing breeding distributions of Great Britain's birds

The article discusses the effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain. The authors state that the predicted increase in mean global temperature brought on by climate change is expected to affect water availability and cause both environmental and societal impacts. The researchers outlined a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge for three locations in the north and south of Great Britain. They explain that under the "high" gas emissions scenario results displayed a decrease of 20 percent in potential groundwater recharge for Coltishall, 40 percent for Gatwick, and 7 percent for Paisley.