Search

Statistical modelling of the magnitude and the frequency of extreme observations is fundamental for a variety of sciences. In this paper, we develop statistical methods of similarity‐based clustering for heteroscedastic extremes, which allow us to group time series of independent observations according to their extreme‐value index and scedasis function (i.e., the magnitude and frequency of extreme values, respectively). Clustering scedasis functions and extreme‐value indices involves the challenge of grouping objects composed of both a function (scedasis) and a scalar (extreme‐value index), and thus the need to partition a product‐space. Our analysis reveals an interesting mismatch between the magnitude and frequency of extreme losses on the London Stock Exchange and the corresponding economic sectors of the affected stocks. The analysis further suggests that the dynamics governing the comovement of extreme losses in the exchange contains information on the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the causal effects of different levels of mother's and father's education on child general and mental health, by applying a fixed effects instrumental variable panel data estimator with selection to nationally represented longitudinal data of over 13,000 observations in the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2019. The results reveal a negative association between mother's education and boys' mental health, potentially driven by relative rather than absolute levels of education between parents. Differences in educational attainment between parents signal unequal power and different values, which inhibits conflict resolution and commitment, leading to higher likelihood of breaking up, which in turn may negatively affect child mental health. On the contrary, no evidence is found of causal links between different levels of mother's and father's education on child health, indicating the relevance of potential environmental factors in the intergenerational transmission mechanism. This calls for more co-ordination of educational interventions with other economic policies, also taking economic cycle into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region‐specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well‐known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural development in Alberta is a long‐standing challenge, with local communities and economies often stuck between economic cycles, fiscal largesse from the Provincial Government, and a historical pattern of conservative leadership that seeks to leave the private sector unimpeded. As a result, many rural communities now face significant economic, social, political, and ecological challenges that, while not unique to Alberta, are marked by only modest innovation and a tendency to return to previous developmental initiatives. This paper is focused upon identifying the common challenges facing municipal government in the province, but also accounting for the inertial dynamics within municipal politics. Drawing from qualitative data collected from rural municipalities, it seeks to situate contemporary adaptive economic strategies and initiatives within the dominant public ideology of the province. This paper argues that while reform initiatives undertaken in the province broadly align with pragmatic municipalism as a necessary response to decades of neoliberal austerity and inertia, that pragmatism is tempered by a provincial rationality that limits, rather than enhances, the likelihood of meaningful change. This rationality, and its effects, are explained through four fallacies: home rule, agency, the Golden Age, and homogeneity. Key Messages: Albertan municipalities are innovative and pragmatic, and not solely embedded in reducing costs due to budgetary constraints.Provincial governments have a long history of limiting institutional, jurisdictional, or legislative changes that could facilitate municipal sustainability.Choices for municipalities are structured by an institutional inertia that rhetorically emphasizes the autonomy, individualism, responsibility, and accountability of rural municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the transmission mechanisms that underlie China's house price fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods, which accounts well for business cycle properties of the housing market. Results show that shocks to housing productivity and the government land supply to housing developers are the primary contributors to house price volatility, accounting for 37% of house price volatility in the short run and 32% in the long run. The importance of housing valuation shocks and shocks to migration only increases in models without the supply side of the housing market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent study, Mejía‐Reyes, Díaz‐Carreño, and Aroca analyzed the synchronization of the business cycles of the states of Mexico. Using an extended gravitational model, they propose and test a set of variables to explain the co‐movement of those cycles. Following on from their work, this paper proposes that one variable in particular, economic complexity, not only explains the synchronization of the business cycles of Mexican states but, in fact, also does a better job at explaining it on its own than the entire set of seven variables proposed by Mejía‐Reyes et al. (2019). The paper provides a more parsimonious specification to explain the co‐movement of the states' business cycles by using a single variable that contains information on their relative productive structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the heterogeneous patterns of clean energy consumption at business cycle frequencies from 1970 to 2017. Specifically, the paper provides a systematic analysis of this relationship in a comprehensive cross‐country panel by extracting the cyclical components of the clean energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) series based on the Hodrick–Prescott filter. Focusing on the cyclical components, we conclude the stylised facts as follows: (a) clean energy consumption is procyclical in advanced economies and developing economies, but acyclical in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC); (b) clean energy consumption is cyclically more volatile than GDP in a typical country; (c) the correlation between cyclicality of clean energy consumption and GDP per capita is more intricate in different country groups; and (d) clean energy consumption is positively correlated with the oil price in advanced economies and developing economies, and negatively correlated in OPEC. These stylised facts are potentially important for establishing empirical and theoretical models to exploit the consequences and impacts of clean energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at an understanding of acquisition processes in a strongly industrialized and export‐oriented economy in Central Europe. Drawing on a proximity framework and behaviour theory, the paper investigates that the geographical proximity dimension is more influential than the cognitive proximity dimension. At the same time, cognitive proximity matters more for foreign firms investing into the economy than for domestic acquisitions. While the role of cognitive proximity diminished during the economic crisis, geographical proximity keeps its importance throughout the economic cycle. Moreover, cognitive proximity has become more important for acquisitions of large companies and less for SMEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Springer Nature became a formidable market leader in academic publishing after a 2015 merger. In 2018, Springer Nature made an initial public offering (IPO) attempt to reduce company debt and fortify company value. Three media sources (Reuters, Bloomberg and Nasdaq) indicated that there was a second IPO attempt in 2020, but neither of those IPO attempts reached fruition. This paper summarizes the main events surrounding those IPOs and offers some possible discussion points about them, including economic and market fluctuations. This case also highlights the highly competitive nature of the commercial publishing landscape in a non‐profit academic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the implications of idea production and knowledge capital for monetary business cycles. We construct a sticky‐wage model where workers produce goods based on firm‐specific knowledge capital and researchers develop new ideas aided by economywide knowledge. As a quantitatively small group in the economy, researchers are inconsequential for the real effects of monetary shocks when the returns to research are low. However, when the returns to research are high, the result can be overturned. Monetary shocks can have significant real effects, even if wages are perfectly flexible for workers, who are quantitatively dominant in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emission of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels is the main environmental impact of energy resources. Moving toward the use of renewable energy resources is the only solution to tackle these problems. In this paper, a configuration of the hybrid biomass and geothermal energy resource is examined for cooling and electricity generation. In this study, water as a geothermal working fluid is heated up due to combustion of syngas produced in a digester and produce power in a steam turbine. So, the remaining heat of this geofluid runs an absorption chiller for cooling production. The results reveal that the energy and exergy efficiencies of this proposed cycle are 30.8% and 15.5%, respectively. Moreover, the economic analysis of this cycle concludes that the payback period is 2.8 years and the simple payback period for this configuration is 2.6 years. Moreover, the highest exergy destruction rate of 52.4% belongs to the absorption refrigeration cycle. Whereas the lowest exergy destruction of the steam line is the lowest value of 17.4%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Off‐grid renewable energy systems are a solution for power generation in areas where access to the grid is not possible or cost‐effective; in particular, low population rural areas located far away from grid lines or in rugged terrains. Furthermore, over‐reliance on fossil fuels for supplying global energy demand has led to the depletion of nonrenewable resources and environmental issues. This paper presents a feasibility assessment of an off‐grid hybrid renewable energy system for a remote rural area in Kohgiluye and Boyer‐Ahmad Province in Iran. Regarding the available energy resources in the region, a photovoltaic (PV)‐biomass energy system is considered. HOMER Pro software is utilized to find the optimized sizing of the PV‐biomass system to fulfill this load demand. The objective function in this optimization is the system's total net present cost. Due to the rapid fluctuation of economic factors in the country, several rates of inflation and discount rate are considered to investigate their influence on the costs of the system. The optimization result for the current inflation rate of 40% and the discount rate of 18% in the country proposes a hybrid energy system consisting of a 3 kW biogas‐fueled generator, 4.74 kW PV, 10 kWh battery, and 2.07 kW converter to meet the 2.64 kW peak load and 14.53 kWh/day consumption of the community. The total net present cost and cost of energy are $93,057 and 0.0933 $/kWh, respectively. Finally, the environmental assessment of the proposed hybrid system shows an annual CO2 emission of 2.95 kg, which means 99.9% CO2 emissions mitigation compared to a conventional coal‐based electrical plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding international transmission mechanism that generates the world business cycle is of immense interest. In this paper, we compile a rich global dataset and utilize a trade‐linked structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a relatively realistic identification scheme to construct a worldwide dynamic interdependency system. Empirical results indicate that the trade‐linked SVAR system can largely capture the common dynamic properties of national business cycle fluctuations, providing a meaningful transmission foundation to the world business cycle derived from dynamic factor models. Based on the worldwide trade‐linked SVAR system, we further shed light on three crucial topics in international economics. The findings and methods in this paper help to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of recent trade dispute between world major economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between labour force participation and the business cycle is a common topic in economic literature. However, few studies have examined if the cyclical sensitivity of labour force participation is influenced by social effects. In this paper, we construct a theoretical model defining a relatively new hypothesis, the bandwagon worker effect (BWE). We use spatial econometrics techniques to test the existence of the BWE in the local labour markets in Spain. Our results reveal a positive spatial dependence in the cyclical sensitivity of labour force participation that decreases as we fix a laxer neighbourhood criterion, which verifies the existence of the BWE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper was to test the hypothesis of business cycle convergence in member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) engaged in a monetary union process. We applied the concepts of beta‐convergence and sigma‐convergence to business cycles in the region in the period 1990–2018. Two analytical approaches suggested that during this period, the hypothesis of the convergence of business cycles cannot be rejected. The study highlighted the positive effect of trade intensity on the convergence of member countries' business cycles, in line with the theory of the endogeneity of optimum currency area criteria. These results imply that the initial asymmetric nature of the business cycles of ECOWAS countries does not represent an economic obstacle to the creation of a monetary union in the zone. This cyclical convergence is likely to accelerate with the intensification of trade resulting from the newly created union owing to deeper financial integration and the elimination of transaction costs and uncertainty associated with exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978–2016. Explored in particular are the cross‐regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes the use of a semiparametric model based on a locally weighted approach that controls for dynamic agglomeration and diffusion effects in constructing localized housing price indices. Based on residential transaction records in Singapore, we create three‐dimensional interactive heat maps that allow for better measurement and visualization of spatial variations and heterogeneity in price appreciation. The heat map captures regional variations and temporal dispersions in price appreciation rates in the business cycle. Our methodology provides high‐resolution information about price dynamics that could aid individual buyers, investors, and policy makers in making objective and informed decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of religious affiliation on individual well‐being. Using Gallup's U.S. Daily Poll between 2008 and 2017, we find that those who are engaged in their local church and view their faith as important to their lives have not only higher levels of subjective well‐being, but also acyclical levels. We show that the acyclicality of subjective well‐being among Christians is not driven by selection effects or the presence of greater social capital, but rather a sense of purpose over the business cycle independent of financial circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until the 1980s, standard models with two large open economies (i.e., the United States and Europe) provided plausible representations of the world economy. However, with the emergence of many developing countries since the 1990s, this approach no longer seems reasonable. In line with this change to the global economic environment, cross‐country output correlations between the United States and other countries have risen. This paper extends the standard two‐country model to many countries to show that doing so produces closer cross‐country correlations to the data. In particular, based on analytical investigation with a simple model and quantitative analysis with a more general model, I show that the cross‐country output correlation rises and the cross‐country consumption correlation falls as the number of countries in the two models increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource‐based cities (RBCs) whose economies depend primarily on exploiting and processing natural resources usually have rigid, singular, and low‐end industrial structures, which often cripples their ability to cope with external disturbances such as international resource price fluctuations and economic downturns. This paper quantitatively analyzes the economic resilience of RBCs in China in terms of resistance and recoverability during the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. Furthermore, it identifies the main factors affecting resilience. There are four main findings: First, RBCs were quickly and negatively impacted by the Asian financial crisis, which suggests that economic resistance was generally low during this period. In the recovery period, while the rate of recovery was slow at the beginning, economic recoverability improved after 2002. Economic resistance and recoverability were found to have a strong negative correlation. Second, at the beginning of the global financial crisis, the economic resistance of RBCs was generally high. However, after 2012, the number of cities that were severely affected by the economic crisis increased rapidly. Third, economic resistance varied across different types of RBCs. Coal‐based and forestry‐based cities had lower economic resistance, while oil & gas‐based cities were more resistant. RBCs in the Eastern region generally had low economic resistance, while the economic resilience of recessionary cities was also low. Finally, while factors affecting the economic resilience varied across the two economic cycles, we found that economic development, labor conditions and, most of all, the industrial structure had a statistically significant negative effect on economic resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the business cycle co‐movement in Mexican states over the period 2000–2014 by estimating an extended gravitational panel data model. Two different de‐trending filters are used to check the robustness of our results. The estimates suggest that the co‐movement increases as the size of the states' economies does so as well as with the productive structure similarities and the relative level of development; however, the co‐movement decreases at a diminishing rate with geographical distance. There is also evidence of time‐dependent effects. In addition, the existence of moderate co‐movements among the states' cycles suggests that common economic policies may not be suitable for all states, which implies there is a need for specific countercyclical policies to mitigate idiosyncratic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mainstream real business cycle (RBC) model, labor can be viewed as temporary employment since the firm's demand for labor behaves directly in response to stochastic productivity shocks in each period. This paper provides a tractable way of analyzing fluctuations in permanent and temporary employment over the business cycle, as well as the underlying driving forces. This inclusion of heterogeneity helps reconcile the RBC model with the U.S. data given that temporary employees in general only account for a small proportion of total private‐sector employment (about 2%–3%). We draw an explicit division between permanent and temporary employment and resort to this separation to account for stylized facts that characterize a two‐tier labor market. In particular, with regard to the U.S. labor market, our benchmark model can well explain the motivating facts: (1) temporary employment is much more volatile than permanent employment, (2) the share of temporary employment (the ratio of temporary to aggregate employment) exhibits strong pro‐cyclicality, (3) permanent employment lags by two quarters on average, and (4) the correlation between temporary employment and output is stronger than that involving the permanent counterpart. The quantitative analysis suggests that our proposed channels explain the main facts well and the model further provides plausible reasoning for a firm's labor hoarding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research was to study the influence of related variety on the economic performance of Spanish provinces during the international crisis (2009–2013) and the post‐crisis period (2014–2018), with the goal of contributing to assess the validity of the skill‐relatedness approach. The research is based on labor flows in a sample of more than one million affiliated workers. Our results confirmed the influence of related variety on the growth of GDP and employment in knowledge‐based industries, in protecting against unemployment, as well as on the creation of new firms, although with marked differences according to the economic cycle. Robustness issues and possible lines of progress using this novel methodology are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper investigates the extent to which national economic conditions matter in the ECB's decision process. We employ various decision models to aggregate counterfactual national interest rates based on Taylor rule estimates and test which of the resulting interest paths fits best to the actual monetary policy in the euro area. As a novel feature, we introduce decision models where countries that fare economically worse than the euro area average obtain a higher weight in the decision process. Our results suggest that these models explain actual ECB policy better than GDP‐based bargaining models that have been highlighted in the previous literature. Thus, the ECB seems to have emphasized the needs of countries that face an economic crisis disproportionately highly even before the advent of the financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada and the United States share 30 endangered or threatened species. This paper examines the recovery process for species at risk under the two country's domestic laws: Canada's Species at Risk Act and the American Endangered Species Act. These two countries could be working together to recover shared species, especially migratory and cross-border species. Through comparing the recovery strategies and plans for the 30 species, and interviewing recovery team members on both sides of the border, it is shown that cross-border collaboration is limited. The paper argues that more collaboration, data sharing, and cross-border recovery teams are needed. Biodiversity loss is an increasing problem in both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the United States during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest-rate rule features no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a 'leaning-against-the-wind' policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade-off between inflation and financial stabilization. ( JEL E32, E44, E52) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of firm-level risk over the cycle and across countries are studied in this paper. Low idiosyncratic firm-level risk is found to be a feature of highly developed, stable economies, whereas the countercyclicality of firm-level risk is associated with flexible as well as stable economies. These facts are uncovered with the help of a theoretical model where small, risk-averse firms display procyclical risk, whereas larger, risk-neutral firms have countercyclical risk patterns that depend on the rigidity of the business environment. The predictions of the model are then confirmed by the data using a large international firm-level database (ORBIS) together with the World Bank Doing Business Database, during the 'Great Recession' across 55 countries. The findings are critical for the growing literature of uncertainty driven business cycles, and show that firm-level uncertainty cannot be treated as an exogenous parameter. ( JEL D21, D22, E32, F44, L11, L25) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies on the evolution of concentration, specialization or localization of economic activity have provided ambiguous results that strongly depend on the researcher's choice of the reference. This paper develops a decomposition method for Theil indices of localization that clarifies where this ambiguity originates from. The method allows expressing the difference between absolute and relative Theil indices of localization in terms of Theil indices that are subject to straightforward interpretation. Illustrations show that the divergence of absolute from relative localization in the EU-15 and in UK manufacturing is largely a statistical artifact inherited from the peculiarities of the industry classifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental social scientists have recently begun to use the term `forest transition' to describe how forest cover changes as economic development occurs in nations. The hypothesized transition occurs as follows. An initial surge in economic activity in impoverished societies spurs deforestation, but as economic activity continues to intensify and cities grow larger, a `turnaround' occurs, and deforestation gives way to reforestation. This paper uses cross-national data from five successive surveys of world forest resources to assess this empirical claim. A turnaround in forest cover trends does occur in a significant number of nations. The paper also evaluates two explanations for the turnaround, a wood scarcity hypothesis derived from microeconomic theory and an industrialization hypothesis linked to central place theory, it finds period specific support for the industrialization hypothesis. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of these findings for proposals to alleviate the bio-diversity crisis through programs of reforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To test the relationship between local financial sector activity and household borrowing, I exploit the credit‐supply shock that occurred prior to the Great Recession as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in borrowing behavior. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach I find that per‐capita indebtedness increased by several thousand dollars—approximately 10%—more in states with a large local financial sector during the housing market boom. A similar positive relationship between financialization and indebtedness holds at the county level. These results suggest the growing influence of local financial markets as a fundamental cause of the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This perspective paper introduces the changing landscape for green & sustainable chemical production, by discussing three key aspects, in relation especially to the possible routes in using biomass and CO2 as new raw materials: i) introduction of renewable energy in the chemical production chain, ii) from biorefineries to bio-factories, and iii) moving to a new landscape for raw materials. It is remarked how they are challenging, but at the same time open chemical industry to innovation and competiveness. This is a critical element particularly in the transitions to new economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1990s, the issue of regional income convergence and its long-term tendencies has been thoroughly and heatedly discussed. Much less attention, however, has been devoted to the short-run dynamics of regional convergence. In particular, three important aspects have not yet been adequately addressed. First, it is indeed essential to understand whether regional disparities manifest a tendency to move systematically along the national cycle. Then, if this happens to be the case, it becomes crucial to know whether 1) these movements are pro- or counter-cyclical,2) the cyclical evolution of the disparities is a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt in regions or it is motivated by the amplitude differences across local cyclical swings. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data on personal income for the 48 coterminous U. S. states between 1969 and 2008. Our results indicate that income disparities do not move randomly in the short run but follow a distinct cyclical pattern, moving either pro- or counter-cyclically depending on the period of analysis. These patterns are probably explained by the changes in the direction of capital and labor flows that favor developed or poorer states in different periods. As for the underlying mechanism, it appears that the short-run evolution of the disparities in recent years is largely a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt across states rather than the outcome of amplitude differences across local cyclical swings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the relationship between electricity consumption ( LEC) and economic growth ( LGDP) using Autoregressive Distributed Lag ( ARDL) model and Granger causality within error correction framework in India over the period 1970-1971 to 2009-2010 are analysed. The results of these tests exhibit the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bilateral causality in case of India. Then, Hodrick- Prescott filter is used to decompose the data into trend and cyclical (fluctuation) components of electricity consumption and economic growth. The results of decomposed series revealed that both series are cointegrated with the strong evidence of bidirectional causality, implying that trend and cyclical components are strongly correlated with business cycles in India. From these findings, we conclude that the feedback hypothesis is applicable in case of India. Therefore, government should undertake necessary policy measures to augment the investment in power sector from existing level and more importantly the emphasis should also be given on the efficient use of electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have presented findings suggesting that the gold standard may have led to an increase in business cycle synchronization among its member countries. This follows a growing literature which posits that currency unions in general lead to greater synchronization of business cycles. The previous papers on the gold standard, however, suffer from simultaneity problems, and incomplete measures of just how synchronized output gaps are. We accordingly apply two new measures of business cycle coherence which have recently been applied to the modern Euro zone. These measures account both for differences in the sign as well as the amplitude of output gaps, and can be computed on a period-by-period basis, unlike previous metrics. In addition, we employ two other methods which do not allow for time-varying estimation, but have been employed in other studies of output convergence. We find, contrary to the earlier studies, that the classical gold standard did not appear to increase the coherence of business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dissimilar economic fluctuations and asymmetric shocks across the regions of a country might create severe policy distortions that, under these circumstances, aggregate policy interventions (such as taxation and interest rates), are likely to be sub-optimal for at least a fraction of the regions. For instance, monetary policy can hardly satisfy the needs of all regions when some of the regions are experiencing a boom while others are in a recession phase. For these reasons, similarity of regional business cycles and their convergence are highly desirable from a policy viewpoint. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to provide empirical evidence and policy implications in that context. In particular, I analyze business cycle correlations across Turkish provinces and the tendency of these cycles to converge over the period of analysis between 1975-2000 and 2004-2008 (for Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics [NUTS]-2 regions). I find that regional business cycle asymmetries have tended to decrease in recent decades. This result, although it seems to provide evidence in favor of rising correlations, shows that the convergence process is rather slow and there still exist asymmetries across the regional business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the global financial crisis, the size of the banking sector has become a hotly debated topic. To measure the size of the banking system a country's banking assets divided by the country's gross domestic product ( GDP) is commonly applied as a general yardstick. This paper shows that this yardstick does not take into account differences in financial needs. In particular, countries differ with regard to the number and size of multinational enterprises. In a cross-country empirical study, we find a statistically significant relationship between the presence of large banks and the presence of multinationals, after controlling for the size of the country. That is why we develop an additional specific yardstick for firm specific financial needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sharp fluctuations in oil prices in recent years provide an opportunity to empirically test Friedman's hypothesis that flexible exchange regimes better absorb real external shocks. This paper empirically examines whether the responses of real output, consumer prices, interest rates and real exchange rates differ across exchange rate regimes. Since the effects of oil price shocks depend on whether the economy is a net importer or a net exporter of oil, the sample used in this study is composed of nine Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development major oil-importing countries. The results show that only consumer prices and real exchange rates exhibit relatively faster and smoother adjustment to their long-run equilibrium when the adopted de facto exchange rate regime is flexible, supporting Friedman's hypothesis. Also, panel Granger causality tests suggest a feedback from real effective exchange rates and inflation rates to the real oil price, supporting the argument that oil price shocks are not purely exogenous to developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the economy influence the focus of believers' prayers and their publicly acknowledged graces? This paper offers some preliminary answers to this question. Using cointegration analyses on Catholic bulletins, we found that the composition of published graces varies according to the economic cycle - a higher unemployment rate, a lower real GDP growth rate and electoral periods lead to a higher number of graces focused on economic issues (as opposed to graces motivated by other concerns, such as health). These results contribute to the literature by providing evidence that the economic cycle also influences believers' prayers and publicly acknowledged graces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY The need for flexible process-aware information systems resulted in a recent interest in declarative approaches, as they promise a high degree of flexibility. However, the potential of current declarative approaches is impeded by deficiencies in understandability and maintainability. This paper proposes an approach toward better understandability and maintainability of declarative processes by adopting well-established techniques from the domain of software engineering. More specifically, the ideas of test-driven development and automated acceptance testing are adopted to interweave process specification and process testing. Thereby, during modeling, testcases balance the circumstantial/sequential information mismatch as well as improve understandability by dispensing with hard mental operations and removing hidden dependencies. Because testcases are also understandable to domain experts, they foster communication between domain experts and model builders, providing a common basis for communication. During process execution, testcases, in turn, help to document the reasons for process deviations and ensure that respective deviations can be easily considered during schema evolution. Furthermore, testcases ensure that no undesired behavior is introduced through process adaptations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT New business formation is an important stimulant to economic activity. However, some 20 percent of new firms die within their first year of operation. Policy makers designing programs to engineer regional economic development need to know what specific factors affect new firm survival. This paper conducts an analysis of the determinants of survival for new enterprises in the state of Georgia. Special emphasis is placed on the importance of local factors. Duration analysis is applied to four cohorts of new enterprises starting during the period 2001 to 2004. The results show that firms located in urban areas are at a higher risk of failure. However, firms situated in counties that have achieved a high level of economic development stand a better chance of surviving. Other factors such as firm size, ownership structure, industry entry rates, and business cycle fluctuations are also influential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY The study of the business cycle synchronization determinants has traditionally focused on economic variables disregarding aspects such as politics and elections. This paper intends to fill in this gap and test whether the political environment is also a relevant channel explaining the synchronization between countries. Using a synchronization index for panel data we find that government ideology affects synchronization. Simultaneous left-wing governments improve business cycle synchronization while the results for right-wing governments, although statistically weak, suggest the opposite effect. In some particular cases, also elections and cabinet changes are found to have a negative impact on synchronization. Furthermore, the role of the traditional economic variables is not altered by the inclusion of this new channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The difficulties of a common monetary policy in an economic and monetary union are well known where there are differences between the stage of the business cycles and inflation pressures. In this paper, I will show that in a simple open macro model and by using 'weighted mean mechanism' monetary authorities can employ a common monetary policy to synchronise diverging business cycles in the member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When viewed in the context of children’s physical, social, and economic ecologies, children’s work has both contextually specific benefits and consequences. This paper examines children’s experiences of their economic activity using a theory of resilience as a contextually and culturally embedded phenomenon [British Journal of Social Work, 38 (2008) 218]. Though there is evidence that child labour is a potential threat to children’s well-being, some forms of children’s work may function as potential sources of health-enhancing resources associated with resilience, resulting in positive psychosocial development. Working children can find through their working experiences positive sources of efficacy and cohesion, strong identity, feelings of well-being, positive relationships, and access to material and social capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business cycle synchronicity, which is the key requirement for sharing a common currency, is not particularly strong within the prospective African monetary unions. However, this parameter is not irrevocably fixed and may be endogeneous vis-à-vis the integration process. For example, trade may increase the similarity of economic disturbances. This paper tests such an effect among the 53 African countries from 1965 to 2004. The estimated results suggest that trade intensity increases the synchronization of business cycles in the African context. The magnitude of the ‘endogeneity effect’ is, however, smaller than similar estimates among industrial countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides empirical analysis on the linkage between the behavior of bank lending and business cycles in South Africa. Consistent with theory, overall evidence suggesting pro-cyclicality of bank lending is uncovered both at macro and micro levels. At macro level, bank lending and lending rates have moved in tandem with business cycles. Real borrowing by government was counter-cyclical to business cycles as would be expected if the role of government was to fine-tune the economy during booms and recessions. At micro level, bank lending to households and firms was generally pro-cyclical. Even the growth of provisioning by banks has been largely pro-cyclical to business cycles, though exceptions were recorded. First, new mortgage lending exhibited counter-cyclical behavior before 1993. We attributed this behavior to the political and economic climate prevailing then which created uncertainties that made ownership of property a good hedge against economic and political risks. Secondly, the growth of real credit for investment and of foreign trade finance does not appear to have been related to business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The empirical success of Real Business Cycle (RBC) models is often judged by their ability to explain the behavior of a multitude of real macroeconomic variables using a single exogenous shock process. This paper shows that in a model with the same basic structure as the bare bones RBC model, monetary, cost-push or preference shocks are equally successful at explaining the behavior of macroeconomic variables. Thus, the empirical success of the RBC model with respect to standard RBC evaluation techniques arises from the basic form of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, not from the specific role of the productivity shock. ( JEL E32, E37) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the issue of the relationship between internal migration rates at NUTS 2 level and economic developments. For five European countries, several hypotheses were tested on three groups of economic variables: general business cycle indicators, financial variables as well as variables reflecting more structural labour market developments. The empirical analysis is based on first differences of all variables. Although some support was found for all of the hypotheses tested but one, the main conclusion is that there is a stable relationship between GDP per capita and internal migration that is highly similar across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has highlighted that in the last few years, the evolution of regional disparities in many European states has become pro-cyclical. This represents a change with respect to the predominantly anti-cyclical pattern of the 1960s and 1970s. This paper addresses the question of whether and when this change has taken place in the southern periphery of Europe, before analysing the factors that may have played a role in such a change. The analysis relies on a regional database that includes the evolution of the GDP per capita of NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) between 1980 and 2000. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis of a change towards a pro-cyclical evolution of regional disparities in the cases of Italy, Portugal, and Spain, but not in those of Greece and France. A relationship between these pro-cyclical patterns and the emergence of less dynamic sheltered economies is also detected in peripheral regions. This lack of dynamism is related to the fact that numerous peripheral areas in southern Europe have become increasingly dependent on factors such as transfers or public investment and employment, and therefore are less exposed to changes in market conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]