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Abstract: The Last Interglacial Period (LIP) is often regarded as a good analogue for potential climatic conditions under predicted global warming scenarios. Despite this, there is still debate over the nature, duration and frequency of climatic changes during this period. One particularly contentious issue has been the apparent evidence of climatic instability identified in many marine cores but seemingly lacking from many terrestrial archives, especially within the Arctic, a key region for global climate change research. In this paper, geochemical records from Lake El'gygytgyn, north-eastern Russia, are used to infer past climatic changes during the LIP from within the high Arctic. With a sampling resolution of ~20–~90years, these records offer the potential for detailed, high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstruction. This study shows that the LIP commenced in central Chukotka ~129thousand years ago (ka), with the warmest climatic conditions occurring between ~128 and 127ka before being interrupted by a short-lived cold reversal. Mild climatic conditions then persisted until ~122ka when a marked reduction in the sedimentation rate suggests a decrease in precipitation. A further climatic deterioration at ~118ka marks the return to glacial conditions. This study highlights the value of incorporating several geochemical proxies when inferring past climatic conditions, thus providing the potential to identify signals related to environmental change within the catchment. We also demonstrate the importance of considering how changes in sedimentation rate influence proxy records, in order to develop robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Floods do have multiple aspects: they are integral phenomena by nature. In this paper we deal with the meteorological aspects, which need to be adequately understood in order to understand the occurrence and development of floods. This holds the more as different meteorological environments and accompanying mechanisms can result in different types of heavy precipitation and so in different flood responses. In this paper, the meteorological aspects of floods are described from the perspective of a precipitation event. The characteristics, the categorisations and the ingredients of the storm systems are presented. The influences of global warming on heavy precipitation events will be discussed as well. The sequence of these aspects reads as a logical succession of the distinct topics of the meteorological aspects of a heavy precipitation event. Since floods commonly have a profound impact on environment and society, the understanding of the meteorological aspects is a first and necessary step in a challenge of dealing with floods. The ultimate goal of this step is to diminish the harmful consequences of floods as adequately as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of increasing concerns about climate change and global warming, various renewable energy sources are widely adopted in power systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources exacerbates the problem of harmonics pollution. In order to improve power quality, it is urgent to develop a new approach for monitoring harmonics. By leveraging the structured sparsity and spatial sparsity of harmonic sources, this paper proposes a group sparse Bayesian learning method for solving harmonic state estimation problems. The proposed algorithm can employ a small number of measurements less than the number of state variables to pinpoint harmonic sources and to estimate the harmonic magnitudes and angles. Moreover, the proposed method achieves automatic hyperparameter adjustments and solves the system states in complex domain without splitting them into real and imaginary parts. Extensive results on a benchmark IEEE 14-bus system are presented to substantiate the superiority of the proposed method in terms of localization accuracy and harmonic magnitude and phase angle estimation. • A group sparse Bayesian learning method is proposed for harmonic state estimation. • The proposed algorithm achieves automatic hyperparameter adjustments. • The proposed method can directly handle the measurements in the complex domain. • Using a small number of measurements pinpoints the harmonic sources. • The proposed method has high localization precision and small estimation error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Warming effects increased with warming duration and magnitudes. • Warming effects on C and N concentrations remain globally invariant. • [C] and [N] responded inconsistently to warming between above- and belowground. • Warming effects on [C] and [N] are linked to soil moisture and soil pH. Global warming has significantly affected the terrestrial C and N cycling processes. Whereas, it is unclear how global warming impacts the C and N concentrations in the above- and belowground ecosystems. We performed a meta-analysis with the results presented in 136 papers and 1886 observations. The data reveals that global warming increased C concentrations in leaf, shoot, and microbial biomass and N concentrations in the shoot. The C:N ratios of microbial biomass also increased under conditions of warming. However, the soil C concentration and soil C:N ratios decreased. Furthermore, these responses are more evident with longer warming duration and elevated warming magnitudes. The warming effects on C and N concentrations and C:N ratios never changed with warming methods, ecosystem types, or background climates. Also, in response to warming, soil moisture was negatively correlated with leaf C concentration as well as C:N ratio in microbial biomass. Soil pH response to warming was in a negative correlation with those of soil C concentration, soil C:N ratio, and microbial biomass C concentration. Our analysis has identified some key ecosystem processes that can be potentially implemented into the ecosystem models for predicting how warming affects future terrestrial C and N dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through tests conducted at the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority's (TRCA) Archetype Sustainable Houses, a hybrid residential space heating system with a supervisory controller was monitored and studied to evaluate its performance and effectiveness for the heating season. A high efficiency natural gas furnace (NGF) and an electric air source heat pump (ASHP) were coupled together to meet the space heating demand of the house. This integrated system is called the cloud based Smart Dual Fuel Switching System (SDFSS) that considers time-of-use (TOU) pricing, fuel cost, short-term weather forecast, and equipment efficiencies and capacities. This multi-variable decision-making process defines an optimal schedule for the hybrid system to run more cost effectively. This paper analyses two separate SDFSSs. According to these analyses, the SDFSS systems showed lower operating cost with respect to the furnace or the ASHP system alone with various carbon tax (CT) levels from $0 to $250/tonne of CT with an increment of $10/tonne of CT that were simulated, along with a significant GHG emission reduction relative to the conventional heating systems. Furthermore, with these technologies, Canada's residential sector could potentially meet Canada's Paris Agreement goals. The SDFSS technology is a is flexible, user friendly, ubiquitous technology for the smooth transition from today's natural gas dominated space heating system to the future's low carbon infrastructure powered by a heat pump and renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Early 20th Century Warming (ETCW) in the northern high latitudes was comparable in magnitude to the present-day warming yet occurred at a time when the growth in atmospheric greenhouse gases was rising significantly less than in the last 40 years. The causes of ETCW remain a matter of debate. The key issue is to assess the contribution of internal variability and external natural and human impacts to this climate anomaly. This paper provides an overview of plausible mechanisms related to the early warming period that involve different factors of internal climate variability and external forcing. Based on the vast variety of related studies, it is difficult to attribute ETCW in the Arctic to any of major internal variability mechanisms or external forcings alone. Most likely it was caused by a combined effect of long-term natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific with a contribution of the natural radiative forcing related to the reduced volcanic activity and variations of solar activity as well as growing greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported a significant rise of the global mean surface temperature over the last 100years, with a rate of warming over the last few decades almost double that over the last 100years. The rate of warming is higher at land surfaces over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and particularly extreme warming is occurring over the Arctic. In spite of the global warming trend, some asymmetries have been observed. In a recent study, a widespread cooling over the NH during the boreal winter season was reported, although other previous studies observed a warming during this season. In this paper we report trends in winter air temperatures over the mid- to high-latitudes of the NH in the last three decades (1980–2012) using different climatic datasets at different spatial resolution (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR, CRUTEM4, GHCN). Results extracted from the different datasets are consistent and show a neutral to moderate warming trend in the winter season during the last three decades. Greenland is an exception, where widespread and significant warming is observed in this time period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, it was hypothesized that coastal upwelling increases in western boundary current influenced regions due to global warming. A state-space decomposition of the alongshore wind stress time-series exhibited an intensification during the “upwelling season” in the last 20 years (1988–2008), which agrees well with the above hypothesis. However, when applying the same decomposition to a temperature time-series at Qinglan station (located at the eastern Hainan coast) over the past 50 years (1960–2006), a negative trend was found. This indicates that the simple relation between alongshore wind stress and upwelling strength is not valid in the study area, but that other non-local factors might influence the inter-annual variability of the upwelling significantly. To identify these possible non-local effects, results of a model simulation were analyzed. From these model data an acceptable relationship between the non-locally driven western boundary current and the strength of the upwelling can be inferred. Furthermore, an “SST (sea surface temperature) upwelling index” was introduced, calculated by the simulated offshore–onshore temperature difference. This index exhibits a good correlation with the Qinglan “observational upwelling time-series”, demonstrating that the latter is a good indicator of the upwelling trend. Finally, it is shown that inter-annual oscillations of employed temperature records correlate well with the El Niño signal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Understanding the confounding impacts of climatic and varietal changes on crop phenology is of importance to help make appropriate adaptation measures and target future directions for crop breeding. This paper investigated the changes in winter wheat phenology and analysed the impact of climatic, varietal and sowing date changes on crop phenology during the last three decades by combining field data with modeling. The APSIM crop model was used to quantify the changes in wheat phenology in terms of vernalization and photoperiod sensitivity as well as the changes in thermal time of pre- and post-flowering stage among wheat varieties at six sites in the North China Plain (NCP). The results showed that APSIM model could capture the phenological changes of winter wheat caused by interannual climatic change. There was a large spatial difference in the response pattern of wheat phenology to climatic and varietal changes across NCP. At most sites the increase in temperature shortened the growth duration of winter wheat mainly by shortening the growth period from sowing to jointing. The delayed sowing of winter wheat further shortened the growth period from sowing to jointing at two northern sites (Tianjin and Huimin). Continuous adoption of new wheat varieties shortened the growth period from sowing to jointing at Huimin, Xinxiang and Zhumadian, from jointing to flowering at Tianjin, but helped increase the length of growth period from jointing to flowering at Huimin, Tangyin and Xinxiang and post-flowering growth period at all the sites except for Tangyin. The findings of the study suggest that past cultivar changes in wheat in the NCP have been varied geographically. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The outcome of COP15, the conference on climate change in Copenhagen, was the Copenhagen Accord which was recognised by the 193 countries that attended. The Accord set no compulsory limits on carbon emissions, and none of the countries that introduced it – USA, China, India [with Brazil and South Africa] – has signed the Annexe to the Kyoto Agreement, committing them to limit their emissions. Climate change is only of secondary importance to them compared with eradicating poverty. Nevertheless three of these countries are in the lead currently for installing renewables, far ahead of most of those [only 37 out of 187 countries world-wide] who are committed to limiting their emissions. This paper explains why. The main function of renewable energy is to save fuel, thereby reducing energy imports and maintaining security of energy supplies without the need to fight world wars over them. Also, being capital intensive with all the money paid up-front, renewables avoid the price fluctuations that bedevil the oil and other fossil fuel industries. As capacity is doubling every 3 years, renewables prices will come down with savings of scale, so wind power in particular will soon be the cheapest form of power. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The effect of future climate scenarios on surface water and groundwater resources has been shown to have a consequent impact on water-dependent ecosystems. A regional-scale analysis of changes in water resources as a result of changing climate was undertaken in south-western Australia; a region with a large number of nationally and internationally recognised water-dependent ecosystems. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts of a substantial reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature as projected by global climate models (GCMs) on river and groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation by 2030. Climate change effects on environmentally significant flow regimes were evaluated by applying the climate projections from 15 GCMs under three global warming ‘scenarios to rainfall–runoff and groundwater models. It was estimated that under a dry future climate scenario, the frequency of river flow rates important for ecological communities is likely to be reduced by up to 2months per year, which is likely to cause a significant level of stress to ecological communities. Additionally, the duration of no-flow periods may increase by more than 120days in some streams. Under a dry future climate scenario, groundwater-dependent vegetation is projected to be at a high risk in over 19% of its current habitat area. Water-dependent ecosystems are also projected to be affected by an increase in groundwater abstraction. The results indicate that the projected impacts of future climate conditions are not likely to be uniform across the region but overall they could cause a continuing threat to water-dependent ecosystems. The implementation of water management plans should place particular emphasis on the ecological water requirements in 6 of the 13 river catchments in south-western Australia and in areas where groundwater abstraction is high. The climate projections and ecological impacts are a continuation of the trends that have taken place in the past three decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7°C, 1.0°C and 1.3°C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate ‘elasticity’ concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ethanol produced from lignocelluloses is expected to make a major contribution on transportation fuel markets. In this paper, a life cycle assessment was carried out to assess the environmental burdens of ethanol production from wheat straw and its use as ethanol blend fuels. Two ethanol based fuel E15 (a mixture of 15% ethanol and 85% petrol by volume) and E85 (85% ethanol and 15% petrol by volume) were assessed and results were compared to those of conventional petrol (PT) in 1 km driven by an equivalent car. The environmental performance was studied using ReCiPe methodology and includes global warming, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidant formation, acidification, ecotoxicity, eutrophication, water depletion and fossil depletion. The results show that, compared to petrol, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions are lower for ethanol blends, with a 73% reduction for an E85-fuelled car and 13% reduction with E15. A modest savings of 40% in fossil depletion was also found when using E85 and 15% when using E15. Similar results are also observed for ozone depletion. The findings highlight a number of environmental issues such as acidification, eutrophication, ecotoxicity and water depletion for which areas ethanol blend use does not offer any advantages compared with petrol. A further analysis of ethanol production at well to gate level helps identify the key areas in the ethanol production life cycle. The results indicate where effort needs to be placed to improve the technology performance and process design which can help in lowering the environmental impacts in the whole life cycle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Reconstructing the temporal and spatial changes in climate on a seasonal basis during the past few centuries may help us better understand the modern-day interplay between natural and anthropogenic climate variability. The objective of this paper is to reconstruct the thawing of the permafrost at 71°N in Arctic Siberia during the termination of the Little Ice Age and the subsequent Recent Warming period. Sediment samples from two lakes on the Taimyr Peninsula were analysed by high-resolution X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy at a scan resolution of 1mm, and pollen analyses were conducted. The depth-age models of the cores were constructed using 210Pb and 137Cs activity according to the constant rate of supply (CRS) model. The lake sediment cover of these lakes began to form ca. 1840. We defined three periods of increased permafrost thawing during the last 170years. The first maximum of permafrost melting occurred from 1870 to 1880, the second episode was from 1900 to 1930 and the third began between 1960 and 1965. During these periods, the maxima of permafrost melting occurred with a specific time lag following. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to the Special Issue on “Climate Change and Coupling of Macronutrient Cycles along the Atmospheric, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Estuarine Continuum”, dedicated to Colin Neal on his retirement. It is not intended to be a review of this vast subject, but an attempt to synthesize some of the major findings from the 22 contributions to the Special Issue in the context of what is already known. The major research challenges involved in understanding coupled macronutrient cycles in these environmental media are highlighted, and the difficulties of making credible predictions of the effects of climate change are discussed. Of particular concern is the possibility of interactions which will enhance greenhouse gas concentrations and provide positive feedback to global warming. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is a great deal of controversy regarding the fate of glaciers and ice fields on the Tibetan Plateau in the face of continued anthropogenic global warming. Paleoclimate reconstructions and spatial analyses aimed at mapping past climate changes are the key to understanding the climatic response of the Tibetan Plateau to changing conditions. Specifically, the numerous lakes distributed across the Tibetan Plateau can provide high-resolution (spatial and temporal) climate reconstructions to investigate past changes in the climate system. In this paper, we review the primary limitation to exploiting these valuable paleoclimate archives: errors in radiocarbon-based age models. We review the techniques that have been used to estimate 14C reservoir ages on the Tibetan Plateau and compile the published 14C reservoir ages to examine their spatial and temporal patterns and to assess the imposed chronological uncertainties. Using site-specific evaluations of Bangong Co and Lake Qinghai, we demonstrate that 14C age model uncertainties permit equally probable and contrasting interpretations of existing paleoclimate records. We also examine 14C-induced uncertainties in the spatial climatic response on the Tibetan Plateau to (1) the termination of the Last Glacial Maximum and (2) the Holocene Thermal Maximum. We conclude with recommendations for reducing uncertainties in future lake-based paleoclimate studies on the Tibetan Plateau. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the influence of climate change on the temperature of a debris slope surface in the zone of sporadic permafrost occurrence in the Tatra Mountains. This involved applications of linear regression equations which describe statistical dependence of the ground surface temperature (GST) upon the current air temperature in snow-free periods, or upon the previous air temperature and snow depth. These equations are validated using the daily air temperature and snow depth at a reference synoptic station and GST at 5 sites located in different topographic conditions. In order to estimate mean winter half-year, mean summer half-year and mean annual GST at these sites in hydrological years 1955–2010, archival meteorological data were used. The maximum errors in these estimations, determined for two reference years, were 0.5°C, 0.2°C and 0.1°C respectively. The results show that the debris slopes thermal sensitivity to climate warming decreases with the increase of: a) shading, 2) altitude, and 3) depth of seasonal snow cover. In general, the changes of the air temperature influence the changes of mean annual ground surface temperature more in snow-free periods than in snow periods, whereas the degradation of orographically conditioned permafrost patches occurs faster in the places where snow cover is thin during the whole winter. The decrease of the depth of a thick snow cover may be accompanied by the decrease of its bottom temperature, despite the increase of the winter air temperature. We infer that in special orographic-nival conditions, the increase of mean annual air temperature may be accompanied by the decrease of mean annual ground surface temperature. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Previous studies have shown that temperature rise leads to an earlier onset of spring in wild plant species and that farmers are not keeping track of climate change. Crop growth models and experiments show yield gains to be obtained from earlier sowing. Why do farmers not sow earlier? We propose simple models on the relation between several weather variables and farmers’ sowing dates and test these models with 392 observed weekly sugar beet sowing percentages in the Netherlands. Data showed no correlation between spring temperature and sowing dates. However when we corrected for number of frost days in spring, we clearly saw earlier sowing at higher temperatures. Frost causes crumbling of the soil resulting in a nice seedbed; farmers sow later when there have been less frost days. Temperature rise “makes” farmers sow earlier, but the number or frost days simultaneously decreases and this “makes” farmers sow later. The combined effect is that temperature rise leads to only a small net advance in sowing date, 2 days per 1°C according to our model. Many climate change studies have assumed advances in sowing date are often larger than likely based on historical trends and models developed in this paper. Such studies may well be overly optimistic in projected yield gains that follow from earlier sowing. Our results also revealed that sowing dates were correlated with the sum of solar radiation over the preceding 7–10 months. This correlation remained significant also when other weather variables (rain, temperature, frost days) were accounted for. Our work raises the question what is the process causing this correlation and does such correlation with radiation sum also show up in other time series of phenological events or human behaviour. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10–10.5, 20–21, 60–62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850–1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10–10.5, 20–21 and 60–62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM''s claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700–2010 warming and may contribute to an additional natural cooling by 2100) are ignored, the same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3–1.2°C by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0–3.6°C projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate changing is a global threat to the world. There are so many reasons behind this problem. One of the major reasons is carbon emissions in atmosphere. The causes for this global threat are many, among them GHG (green house gas emission) is one of them. Also deforestation, land use change, sulfate aerosol and black carbon are the other major reason leading to the ozone layer depletion and changing climate. Due to the carbon emission atmosphere is being polluted and also so many disasters happen routinely. Atmosphere is getting hot day by day. Due to this unnatural and sudden temperature rise, glaciers are melting, so sudden flash floods occur. Agricultural sector is also suffering due to the global warming effects. This will also affect the productivity of grains world wide. Climate changing increases land and as well as sea temperature and alters precipitation quantity and patterns. As a result increasing the global average sea level, risk of coastal erosions, etc. climate change will be an added stress for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. Effects will also be severe on coasts and marine ecosystems. Extreme events like drought, flood may also happen due to these impacts. This paper elaborately present the current situation of climate changing and the causes of its vulnerable effects, also the mitigation action of climate changing are also discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The effect of future climate scenarios on surface water and groundwater resources has been shown to have a consequent impact on water-dependent ecosystems. A regional-scale analysis of changes in water resources as a result of changing climate was undertaken in south-western Australia; a region with a large number of nationally and internationally recognised water-dependent ecosystems. The paper examines the potential environmental impacts of a substantial reduction in rainfall and an increase in temperature as projected by global climate models (GCMs) on river and groundwater-dependent terrestrial vegetation by 2030. Climate change effects on environmentally significant flow regimes were evaluated by applying the climate projections from 15 GCMs under three global warming ‘scenarios to rainfall–runoff and groundwater models. It was estimated that under a dry future climate scenario, the frequency of river flow rates important for ecological communities is likely to be reduced by up to 2months per year, which is likely to cause a significant level of stress to ecological communities. Additionally, the duration of no-flow periods may increase by more than 120days in some streams. Under a dry future climate scenario, groundwater-dependent vegetation is projected to be at a high risk in over 19% of its current habitat area. Water-dependent ecosystems are also projected to be affected by an increase in groundwater abstraction. The results indicate that the projected impacts of future climate conditions are not likely to be uniform across the region but overall they could cause a continuing threat to water-dependent ecosystems. The implementation of water management plans should place particular emphasis on the ecological water requirements in 6 of the 13 river catchments in south-western Australia and in areas where groundwater abstraction is high. The climate projections and ecological impacts are a continuation of the trends that have taken place in the past three decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To learn the historical response of cropping system to climate change will benefit the strategy decision of future cropping adaptation. In this paper, we conducted an integrated analysis of the climate records of seventy-two meteorological stations and the records of crop yields over the period 1970–2009 in Northeast China. It was found that over these forty years, the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures during crop growing season increased on average by 0.34°C, 0.28°C, 0.43°C every ten years, respectively. No significant change in the precipitation was found, although the differences between years were large. After de-trending the agronomic technique contributions to the increments of crop yields, the historical warming had led to great annually increments of 16.6kgha−1, 15.5kgha−1 and 3.2kgha−1 in rice, corn and soybean yields, respectively. According to the historical warming level, present cropping boundaries can be theoretically extended northward about 80km with a prolonged growing period by 10 days compared to the 1970s. Actually, the growth durations of newly approved varieties of rice, corn and soybean have really prolonged by 14.0 days, 7.0 days and 2.7 days since the 1950s, respectively. The actual growing periods of rice and corn have also respectively prolonged by 6 days and 4 days due to the adjustment of sown and harvest dates by the farmer since 1990s. The existing rice cropping region has been extended northward 80km in the 2006 compared to the 1970. These actual responses were consistent with the theoretical calculation according to the historical warming trends. Our results demonstrate that cropping system owns the potential to progressively and actively adapt to the global warming for high yield through a comprehensive strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Are the achievements of sustainable development and the improvement of environmental standards mutually exclusive in the 21st century? Is there a possibility to combine the two? This study is an effort to investigate the mutual exclusiveness of the two policy areas and asks for the necessity and possibility to combine the two with a reference to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). After describing the historical, geographical, and climatic backgrounds of SSA, negative effects of global warming and local environmentally harmful practices are discussed. Subsequently, the appropriate development measures for the region are elaborated in order to understand their compatibility with regards to improving the environment. It is concluded that to change the dependency on agriculture, the economy needs to be restructured towards technologies. Furthermore, it is found that there is a direct link between global warming and economic efficiency. Theories, which imply that some regions are simply ‘too poor to be green’, are investigated and rebutted by another theory, which states that it is indeed possible to industrialize in an environmentally friendly way. It follows that environmental and development measures are interconnected, equally important and can be reconciled. The paper finally concludes that the threat posed by global warming and the previously practised environmentally-harmful local measures might be so pressing that it may be too tragic to go for ‘develop first and clean up later’ approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause global warming which results in extreme weather changes that could affect crop yields and productivity, food supplies and food prices. It is also expected that climate change will have an impact on animal metabolism and health, reproduction and productivity. On the other hand, the expected increased demand of animal origin products in the coming years will increase the reared animal numbers and consequently GHG emissions. This paper outlines the main GHGs emitted from livestock which are CO2, CH4 and N2O, coming from respiration, enteric fermentation and manure management respectively, with CH4 and N2O having the highest global warming potential. Ruminant livestock has the highest contribution to these GHG emissions with small ruminants share being 12.25% of the total GHG emissions from livestock''s enteric and manure CH4, and manure N2O in CO2 equivalent, producing 9.45 kg CO2 equivalent per kg body weight with the respective values for cattle, pigs and poultry being 5.45, 3.97 and 3.25. Since the production systems significantly affect the GHG emissions, the grazing, livestock crop complex, and intensive ones account for 30.5%, 67.29% and 5.51% for total CH4 emission (from enteric fermentation and manure management) and 24.32%, 68.11% and 7.57% for N2O respectively. Taking into account the positive and negative impacts of small ruminant livestock production systems to the environmental aspects in general, it is recommended that a number of potentially effective measures should be taken and the appropriate mitigation technologies should be applied in order to reduce effectively and essentially the GHG emissions to the atmosphere, with no adverse effects on intensification and increased productivity of small ruminants production systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the recent increasing public focus on climate change issues, there is a need for robust, sustainable and climate friendly power transmission and distribution systems that are intelligent, reliable, and green. Current power systems create environmental impacts as well as contributing to global warming due to their utilization of fossil fuels, especially coal, as carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. In contrast to fossil fuels, renewable energy is starting to be used as the panacea for solving climate change or global warming problems. This paper describes a feasibility study undertaken to investigate the potentialities of renewable energy including the prospective locations in Australia for renewable energy generation, in particular solar and wind energy. Initially, a hybrid model has been developed to investigate the prospects of wind energy for typical Australian region considering production cost, cost of energy, emission production and contribution from renewable energy using the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER), a computer model developed by the USA’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This model also explores suitable places around Australia for wind energy generation using statistical analysis. Subsequently, the usefulness of solar energy in the Australian context and suitable locations for solar energy generation are also investigated using a similar hybrid model. Finally, the model has been developed to investigate the prospects of renewable energy in particular wind and solar energy including specific locations in Australia that would be suitable for both wind and solar energy generation. From simulation analysis it is clearly observed that Australia has enormous potentialities for substantially increased use of renewable energy; a large penetration of renewable energy sources into the national power system would reduce CO2 emissions significantly, contributing to the reduction of global warming. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: China is one of the most important rice production countries in the world, and maintaining high rice productivity in China is very important for world food security. While previous studies showed that rice production in China has been and will be negatively impacted by global warming, the confounding effects of climatic change, variety improvement and agronomic managements have not been separately investigated. In this paper we combine an analysis of climate and rice growth data with crop modeling to investigate the impact of changes in climate, rice varieties, and agronomic management on rice productivity at four sites (Wuchang, Xinyang, Zhenjiang and Hanyuan) in China. The results showed a significant increase in minimum temperature during all rice growth stages at Wuchang and Zhenjiang, and from heading to maturity at Xinyang, but little change at Hanyuan. Global warming would have led to a reduction in the length of rice growing period and a reduction in grain yield at all study sites, if no varietal changes had occurred. However, the adoption of new rice varieties stabilized growing duration, increased harvest index and grain yield at three of the four sites. In the face of future warming, a planned breeding effort may be needed to offset the negative impact of future climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the results of a life cycle assessment of domestic heat pumps in the UK in comparison with gas boilers. The study considers air (ASHP), ground (GSHP) and water (WSHP) source heat pumps. The results show that heat pumps have higher environmental impacts than gas boilers due to the use of electricity. On average, the impacts for the ASHP are 82% higher than from the boiler and 73% for the GSHP and WSHP. The exception to this are the global warming, fossil resource depletion and summer smog impacts which are lower for the pumps than the boilers. For example, up to 36% of CO2 eq. can be saved with the WSHP and 6% with the ASHP in comparison with the boiler. Among the heat pumps considered, ASHP have the highest impacts due to lower efficiencies and higher material requirements for the system. The GSHP and WSHP have comparable impacts, with the latter being marginally better. The life cycle impacts of heat pumps may improve if the UK electricity mix is sufficiently decarbonised; however, they will still remain higher than for the gas boiler. Overall, their potential to contribute to the UK climate change targets is limited. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The current climate crisis and recent world events, including the global economic crisis and growing concerns over the availability and cost of petroleum fuels, has sparked a global interest in developing alternative, sustainable, clean fuel technologies for the transportation sector. While a multitude of alternative fuel and vehicle technologies have been presented, hydrogen is considered by many as an option of choice. However, the mass-adoption of hydrogen presents many challenges, including appropriate refueling infrastructure supply transitions, consumer vehicle purchase behavior, and fuel costs. Early fleet adoption is one proposed strategy to transition hydrogen use in the transportation sector. Bus-transit demonstration projects have proven the technology, yet there has not been large-scale adoption by transit fleets. This paper addresses infrastructure, vehicle, and personnel needs to support the transition of a medium sized transit agency to full conversion to hydrogen fuel, using Knoxville Area Transit (KAT) as a case study. Specifically, requirements for hydrogen bus fleets, production, storage, refueling and maintenance facilities, and personnel are addressed as well as the transition strategy for implementing the technology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The European Alps are one region of the world where climate-driven changes are already perceptible, as exemplified by the general retreat of mountain glaciers over past decades. Temperatures have risen by up to 2°C since 1900 particularly at high elevations, a rate that is roughly three times the global-average 20th century warming. Regional climate models suggest that by 2100, winters in Switzerland may warm by 3–5°C and summers by 6–7°C according to greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, while precipitation is projected to increase in winter and sharply decrease in summer. The impacts of these levels of climatic change will affect both the natural environment and a number of economic activities. Alpine glaciers may lose between 50% and 90% of their current volume and the average snowline will rise by 150m for each degree of warming. Hydrological systems will respond in quantity and seasonality to changing precipitation patterns and to the timing of snow-melt in the Alps, with a greater risk of flooding during the spring and droughts in summer and fall. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, agriculture and the insurance industry that will be confronted to more frequent natural disasters. This paper will thus provide an overview of the current state of knowledge on climatic change and its impacts on the Alpine world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Since the Discovery Investigations of the 1920s and 1930s, seawater temperatures have increased in the Atlantic sector by ∼1°C; greater than the global mean rise. The aims of this paper were first to rescue the Discovery macrozooplankton data, second to provide quantitative “baseline” distribution maps, relating these to indices of temperature and food. Our third aim was to use the relationships we derived between abundance and temperature to project the potential affect of a 1°C warming on the Discovery era distribution patterns. Based on the 1m ringnet data retrieved from 615 stations (Nov–March), four taxa comprised >90% of the Antarctic macrozooplankton abundance: Rhincalanus gigas, Thysanoessa spp., Euphausia superba, and Chaetognaths. Most of the taxa, especially the more abundant ones, were warm water species penetrating into Antarctica and thus total macrozooplankton abundance decreased about 100-fold from 50°S to 70°S. While temperature correlated best with distribution at this large scale, food availability (proxied by a present-day satellite-based Chlorophyll a climatology) had a secondary effect, with the major euphausiids Euphausia superba and Thysanoessa spp. concentrated in high chl a areas. A modelled uniform 1°C temperature rise produced a poleward shift for all taxa, but the Antarctic continent blocked this re-adjustment for the high latitude species, constricting their predicted range. More widespread polar/sub-polar species were predicted to increase their penetration into Antarctica by 4–12° in latitude, whereas the poleward shift in potential range of sub-Antarctic taxa were limited by the steep temperature gradient across the Antarctic Polar Front (APF). However, within the Scotia Sea the relatively warm temperatures of the northern Antarctic Zone, abundant food due to iron fertilisation and intense eddy activity provide a “gateway” for northern species to penetrate south of the APF. Our model predictions, based on measured distributional ranges and observed temperature increases, provide a yardstick with which to compare modern day data compilations and assess the potential effects of future temperature increases. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Highly Integrated Community Energy Systems (ICES) greatly but not solely dependent on combined heat and power (CHP) sources are a viable approach for dealing effectively with the new set of global threats which Mankind is facing, such as Climate Change, Global Warming and Extreme Poverty. ICES are capable of delivering sustainable electricity, heat and cold to small communities and of working as grid-connected or islanded microgrids, adding technical, economical, environmental and social benefits to populations. The impacts of introducing ICES in current distribution networks can be analyzed at different scales due to the wide range of influence exerted not only at the local but also at regional and global levels. For these reasons, there is increased need for appropriate modeling of ICES for the vital purposes of planning and analysis of these systems. An overview on the available bottom-up tools for the optimization planning and analysis of ICES is done in this paper. The survey shows that DER-CAM can be considered an appropriate tool for the purpose of ICES design modeling due to the robust and flexible three-level optimization algorithm, hourly time step and other scale considerations but particularly due to the several successful applications with modeling microgrid systems. Additionally there is research experience on expanding the objective function for environmental concerns and also with EV battery storage interactions. Finally, GAMS DER-CAM''s base language, is a widely known package for allowing changes to be made in model specifications simply and safely. In that sense, there is potential in exploring such tool for the design of ICES. Furthermore, it is found that MARKAL/TIMES, also a GAMS/CPLEX based tool, has scale flexibility which enables it for analyzing the long-term deployment of ICES in time. There is opportunity in this field for further work exploring the sustainability-sound modeling for optimal design of ICES and deployment scenario options evaluation, through long-term time horizons consideration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Energy shortage, global warming, and climate change led to an increase in the use of alternative sources of energy, with renewable energy sources (RES) playing a fundamental role in this new energetic paradigm. However, the investment costs often constitute a major barrier to their spread use. Moreover, the overall benefits of renewable energy technologies are often not well understood and consequently they are often evaluated to be not as cost effective as traditional technologies. From the moment that the energy sector started a deregulation process, with a high level of competitiveness and associated increased market uncertainty, traditional project evaluation techniques alone became insufficient to properly deal with these additional risk and uncertainty factors. The diffusion of the renewable energy technologies is also affected by this feature. The way investors evaluate their investments call now for the use of more sophisticated evaluation techniques. Real options approach can deal with these issues and, as so, began to be considered and applied for the energy sector decision aid. This approach it is now extensively widespread in evaluating investment projects in the energy sector. A large set of applications in almost all fields of energy decision making, from electricity generation technologies appraisal to policy evaluation is available in the literature. However the use of this technique in the field of RES is still limited and worth to be analysed. This paper addresses this issue. A review of the current state of the art in the application of real options approach to investments in non-renewable energy sources and RES is presented, giving perspectives for further research in this field. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is an increasing number of papers published in the journal Soil and Tillage Research where the aim of the research on soil tillage and related processes has been directed more to the study on CO2 emissions triggering of the climate change than to soil science. The rise of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has been taken as the dominant factor causing the recent global warming and the reduction of CO2 emissions from soil has been formulated as an important procedure influencing positively the environment. The review based upon the knowledge of paleopedology and Pleistocene and Holocene glaciology shows that the hypothesis on the dominant role of the greenhouse gas CO2 upon the recent climate change characterized by the global warming is false. The studies on reduction of CO2 emissions from soil as acts contributing to the reduction of the global warming are then futile attempts. However, the role of land use change and of variation of tillage – no tillage practices upon soil organic carbon have to be deeply studied in order to restore the optimal humification processes in soils where the CO2 emissions form an important part of the research. Some of the most frequently used menaces on consequences of the recent global warming are critically discussed, too, in order to show the rational expectation of the environment change due to the global warming which is heading towards the Holocene average. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Waste prevention has been addressed in the literature in terms of the social and behavioural aspects, but very little quantitative assessment exists of the environmental benefits. Our study evaluates the environmental consequences of waste prevention on waste management systems and on the wider society, using life-cycle thinking. The partial prevention of unsolicited mail, beverage packaging and food waste is tested for a “High-tech” waste management system relying on high energy and material recovery and for a “Low-tech” waste management system with less recycling and relying on landfilling. Prevention of 13% of the waste mass entering the waste management system generates a reduction of loads and savings in the waste management system for the different impacts categories; 45% net reduction for nutrient enrichment and 12% reduction for global warming potential. When expanding our system and including avoided production incurred by the prevention measures, large savings are observed (15-fold improvement for nutrient enrichment and 2-fold for global warming potential). Prevention of food waste has the highest environmental impact saving. Prevention generates relatively higher overall relative benefit for “Low-tech” systems depending on landfilling. The paper provides clear evidence of the environmental benefits of waste prevention and has specific relevance in climate change mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Nam Co Lake is the highest lake in the central Tibetan Plateau, and existing research on water storage and water level variations are lacking. This paper provides a method for estimating the lake water storage based on historical meteorological records from 1976 to 2009, remote sensing images scattered in this period, in situ bathymetric survey, and GIS techniques, and presents a comprehensive 34-year analysis of intra-annual and inter-annual variations of Nam Co Lake water storage. The multi-year mean water storage of Nam Co Lake is 842.36×108 m3, with the maximum water depth of about 98m. During 1976–2009, the lake water storage increased from 786.06×108 m3 to 870.30×108 m3, with a tendency value of 2.67×108 m3/a; the lake area enlarged from 1927.48km2 to 2015.12km2, with a tendency value of 2.71km2/a. The lake area fluctuations annually, increasing from April of each year until late September and early October, then decreasing until March of the next year. Climate change has a significant impact on the water storage variation of the lake. A general pattern of warming temperature is evident with the regional annual mean air temperature increasing significantly by 0.404°C/10a. Preliminary analysis indicates that the enlarging status of Nam Co Lake water storage is closely related to increasing of precipitation and stream runoff especially coming from the input of glacial meltwater. By combining this data with other research, it can be presented that under the trend of global warming, on Tibetan Plateau, the inland lakes which depend on the rainfall and river supply in the basin are shrinking, while the lakes which depend on glacial meltwater supply are enlarging. Climate change is an important factor promoting the lake variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Ruminant livestock are responsible for production of a portion of greenhouse gases, particularly methane (61Tg/yr) which is believed to contribute to global warming and climate change. Methane is an end product of fermentation of plant material by the microbial ecosystem in the rumen. Methanogenesis is undertaken by methanogenic archaea and is a mechanism by which H2 is removed from fermentation in order to regenerate biochemical co-factors such as NAD+. The microbial ecosystem is very complex and involves thousands of species of bacteria (1010–1011 cells/ml), archaea (107–109 cells/ml), protozoa (104–106 cells/ml), fungi (103–106 cells/ml), and viruses (109–1010 cells/ml), which interact with the feed, their host and each other. This ecosystem is relatively poorly understood, particularly inter-species interactions and interactions with the host. Less than 15% of the microbial species in the gastrointestinal tract have been cultured and characterised. However, knowledge of this ecosystem is accumulating, particularly with the advent of molecular biology and culture independent technologies. New high throughput sequencing methodologies, such as pyrosequencing, will greatly improve the rate of knowledge acquisition and techniques such as Stable Isotope Probing will enhance our ability to understand species inter-relationships. While we can expect an increase in our knowledge of this complex ecosystem, and an improved ability to predictably lower CH4 emissions, examples of successful reductions already exist, including use of feeds (e.g., cereal grains) and chemical additives (e.g., 2-bromo-ethane sulfonate, bromochloromethane). Achieving meaningful reductions in CH4 emissions may be possible with advances in our knowledge of the intricacies of this complex ecosystem. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture – Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Swine manure storage is a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study was conducted to quantify CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions from swine manure stored at different stack heights using dynamic emission vessels. Stack heights of 10, 20, and 40cm to cover the typical range of manure stack heights, were examined at 25°C with a ventilation rate of 20air changes/h with each regimen replicated thrice. Results show that the GHG emissions increased on the 2nd to 3rd day of manure storage then decreased to became stable after 10d of storage. Manure stack height affected GHG emissions from stored swine manure, with the lower stack height having higher CO2 and N2O, but lower CH4, emissions/kg of initial manure weight. On the basis of 100yr global warming potential for CH4 and N2O, cumulative emissions were 7.5±1.11, 6.8±1.32 and 10.8±1.23g CO2-eqv/kg initial manure, respectively, for the 10, 20, and 40cm stacks over the 6wk storage period. Results suggest that 20cm stack height produced the least GHG emissions. This paper is part of the special issue entitled: Greenhouse Gases in Animal Agriculture – Finding a Balance between Food and Emissions, Guest Edited by T.A. McAllister, Section Guest Editors: K.A. Beauchemin, X. Hao, S. McGinn and Editor for Animal Feed Science and Technology, P.H. Robinson. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Evidence on global climate change, being caused primarily by rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is perceived as fairly conclusive. It is generally attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect, resulting from higher levels of trapped heat radiation by increasing atmospheric concentrations of gases such as CO2 (carbon dioxide). Much of these gases originate from power plants and fossil fuel combustion. However, the fate of vast amounts of waste heat rejected into the environment has evaded serious scholarly research. While 1 kWh electricity generation in a typical condensing coal-fired power plant emits around 1 kg of CO2, it also puts about 2 kWh energy into the environment as low grade heat. For nuclear (fission) electricity the waste heat release per kWh is somewhat higher despite much lower CO2 releases. This paper evaluates the impact of waste heat rejection combined with CO2 emissions using Finland and California as case examples. The immediate effects of waste heat release from power production and radiative forcing by CO2 are shown to be similar. However, the long-term (hundred years) global warming by CO2-caused radiative forcing is about twenty-five times stronger than the immediate effects, being responsible for around 92% of the heat-up caused by electricity production. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It is now accepted that climate change is due to the cumulative and joint effect of multiple atmospheric trace constituents. The importance of adopting a comprehensive approach to global warming that would account for multiple interacting pollutants is increasingly recognized. In this paper we propose to extend the analysis of intertemporal permit trading to a framework encompassing multiple correlated pollutants. In doing so our aim is to assess the consequence of providing “when flexibility” to participants in a pollution market scheme with respect to the timing of use of their permits. In the same manner as local pollution hotspots have been identified as potential drawbacks of allowing intra-regional trade, temporal flexibility has the potential to induce a type of “temporal hotspot” of pollution that could undermine the efficiency of intertemporal trading schemes — especially when the stock of a particular pollution induces damage in itself but also impacts on the accumulation of another detrimental pollution stock. In a first step, we assess the impact of various types of correlations (technological and physical) on the socially optimal accumulation of regional and global pollutants. We illustrate that even in the case of a linear damage function the regional stocks may have ambiguous impacts on the global stock. In a second step, we show that it is possible for a global benevolent regulator to have recourse to a set of intertemporal trading schemes to induce individual agents to take socially optimal decisions over time. One requirement is to implement a set of time-dependent intertemporal trading rates. We also analyze the impact on pollutants accumulation of implementing non-optimal intertemporal trading rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In a recent comment on the paper by about “Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality”, state that infrared lamps do not warm open-field plots by the mechanism expected with global warming. While this statement is correct, in the aftermath of their comment, confusion exists about how warming with infrared heaters can be related to global warming. This comment illustrates how infrared heating at “constant temperature rise” relates in a quantitative way to anticipated global warming. also state that changes in vapor pressure gradient from leaf to atmosphere are an issue with infrared heating, but this problem can be minimized with supplemental irrigations in controlled amounts. Therefore, “constant temperature rise” infrared warming experiments with supplemental irrigations are a viable T-FACE (temperature free-air controlled enhancement) that can be used in combination with CO2-FACE to produce conditions more representative of future open-fields than can be done with chambers with their many known artifacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper presents an approach to quantify evapotranspiration under changing climates, using field observations, theoretical evaporation models and meteorological predictions from global climate models. We analyzed evaporation and meteorological data from three riparian sites located in a semi-arid watershed in southern Arizona USA and found that the surface resistance to water vapor transport was closely related to the vapor pressure deficit. From this, we developed a relatively simple daily conductance model and included a growing season index to accurately replicate the onset and the end of the growing season. After the model was calibrated with observations from January 2003 to December 2007, it was used to predict daily evapotranspiration rates from 2000 to 2100 using Penman–Monteith equation and meteorological projections from the IPCC fourth assessment report climate model runs. Results indicate that atmospheric demand will be greater and lead to increased reference crop evaporation, but evapotranspiration rates at the studied field sites will remain largely unchanged due to stomatal regulation. However, the length of the growing season will increase leading to a greater annual riparian water use. These findings of increased riparian water use and atmospheric demand, likely affecting recharge processes, will lead to greater groundwater deficits and decreased streamflow and have important implications for water management in semi-arid regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Detailed estimates of carbon dioxide emissions at fine spatial scales are critical to both modelers and decision makers dealing with global warming and climate change. Globally, traffic-related emissions of carbon dioxide are growing rapidly. This paper presents a new method based on a multiple linear regression model to disaggregate traffic-related CO2 emission estimates from the parish-level scale to a 1×1km grid scale. Considering the allocation factors (population density, urban area, income, road density) together, we used a correlation and regression analysis to determine the relationship between these factors and traffic-related CO2 emissions, and developed the best-fit model. The method was applied to downscale the traffic-related CO2 emission values by parish (i.e. county) for the State of Louisiana into 1-km2 grid cells. In the four highest parishes in traffic-related CO2 emissions, the biggest area that has above average CO2 emissions is found in East Baton Rouge, and the smallest area with no CO2 emissions is also in East Baton Rouge, but Orleans has the most CO2 emissions per unit area. The result reveals that high CO2 emissions are concentrated in dense road network of urban areas with high population density and low CO2 emissions are distributed in rural areas with low population density, sparse road network. The proposed method can be used to identify the emission “hot spots” at fine scale and is considered more accurate and less time-consuming than the previous methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: For all but the last 250 years, mankind was almost entirely dependent on renewable energy, mainly from biomass and wind. Then the era of fossil fuels downed and we shifted away from renewables. But excessive use of fossil fuel has now precipitated existence-threatening climate change and ocean acidification. So the world is once again reverting to renewables in a big way. It is as if the human quest for energy has come full circle. But will this ‘home coming’ bail us out of the global environmental crisis? This paper says it will not as long as we do not drastically reduce the largely conspicuous and wasteful consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Existing energy generation technologies emit CO2 gas and are posing a serious problem of global warming and climate change. The thermodynamic feasibility of a new process scheme combining chemical looping combustion (CLC) and combined reforming (CR) of propane (LPG) is studied in this paper. The study of CLC of propane with CaSO4 as oxygen carrier shows thermodynamic feasibility in temperature range (400–782.95°C) at 1bar pressure. The CO2 generated in the CLC can be used for combined reforming of propane in an autothermal way within the temperature range (400–1000°C) at 1bar pressure to generate syngas of ratio 3.0 (above 600°C) which is extremely desirable for petrochemical manufacture. The process scheme generates (a) huge thermal energy in CLC that can be used for various processes, (b) pure N2 and syngas rich streams can be used for petrochemical manufacture and (c) takes care of the expensive CO2 separation from flue gas stream and CO2 sequestration. The thermoneutral temperature (TNP) of 702.12°C yielding maximum syngas of 5.98mol per mole propane fed, of syngas ratio 1.73 with negligible methane and carbon formation was identified as the best condition for the CR reactor operation. The process can be used for different fuels and oxygen carriers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Soil respiration (SR) is highly sensitive to future climate change, and particularly to global warming. However, considerable uncertainties remain associated with the temperature sensitivity of SR and its controlling processes. Using 384 field measurement data from 114 published papers and one book, this study quantifies the variation in the seasonal Q 10 values of soil respiration, the multiplier by which respiration rates increase for a 10°C increase in temperature, and its drivers across different sites. No significant correlation between Q 10 and mean annual temperature or mean annual precipitation is found when statistically controlling seasonal changes in vegetation activity, deduced from satellite vegetation greenness index observations (normalized difference vegetation index, or NDVI). In contrast, the seasonal amplitude of NDVI is significantly and positively correlated with the apparent Q 10 of SR. This result indicates that the variations of seasonal vegetation activity exert dominant control over the variations of the apparent Q 10 of SR across different sites, highlighting the ecological linkage between plant physiological processes and soil processes. It further implies that the seasonal variation of vegetation activity may thus dominate the apparent seasonal temperature sensitivity. We conclude that the apparent Q 10 value of SR estimated from field measurements is generally larger than the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition, and thus cautions should be taken when applying apparent Q 10 values directly in ecosystem models. Our regression analysis further shows that when the amplitude of NDVI variation approximates 0 (and thus when the seasonality in vegetation activity is marginal), the residual Q 10 of SR for soil temperature measured at 5cm depth is about 1.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Reinforced concrete (RC) structures are subjected to environmental actions affecting their performance, serviceability and safety. Among these actions, chloride ingress leads to corrosion and has been recognized as a critical factor reducing service life of RC structures. This paper presents a stochastic approach to study the influence of weather conditions and global warming on chloride ingress into concrete. The assessment of chloride ingress is carried out on the basis of a comprehensive model that couples the effects of convection, chloride binding, concrete aging, temperature and humidity. A simplified model of temperature and humidity including seasonal variations and global warming is also proposed in this work. Three scenarios of global warming are defined based on: gas emissions, global population growth, introduction of new and clean technologies and use of fossil sources of energy. The proposed approach is illustrated by a numerical example where the preliminary results indicate that climate changes may yield to significant lifetime reductions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The effects of climate change are controversial. This paper reviews the effects of climate change on livestock following the theory of global warming. Although, the effects of global warming will not be adverse everywhere, a relevant increase of drought is expected across the world affecting forage and crop production. Hot environment impairs production (growth, meat and milk yield and quality, egg yield, weight, and quality) and reproductive performance, metabolic and health status, and immune response. The process of desertification will reduce the carrying capacity of rangelands and the buffering ability of agro-pastoral and pastoral systems. Other systems, such as mixed systems and industrial or landless livestock systems, could encounter several risk factors mainly due to the variability of grain availability and cost, and low adaptability of animal genotypes. Regarding livestock systems, it will be strategic to optimise productivity of crops and forage (mainly improving water and soil management), and to improve the ability of animals to cope with environmental stress by management and selection. To guide the evolution of livestock production systems under the increase of temperature and extreme events, better information is needed regarding biophysical and social vulnerability, and this must be integrated with agriculture and livestock components. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper presents a methodology for estimating high quantiles of distributions of daily temperature in a non-stationary context, based on peaks-over-threshold analysis with a time-dependent threshold expressed in terms of regression quantiles. The extreme value models are applied to estimate 20-yr return values of maximum daily temperature over Europe in transient global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 21st century. A comparison of scenarios of changes in the 20-yr return temperatures based on the non-stationary peaks-over-threshold models with conventional stationary models is performed. It is demonstrated that the application of the stationary extreme value models in temperature data from GCM scenarios yields results that may be to a large extent biased, while the non-stationary models lead to spatial patterns that are robust and enable one to detect areas where the projected warming in the tail of the distribution of daily temperatures is largest. The method also allows splitting the projected warming of extremely high quantiles into two parts that reflect change in the location and scale of the distribution of extremes, respectively. Spatial patterns of the two components differ significantly in the examined climate change projections over Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]