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Increasingly, agricultural land managers are seeking new approaches for understanding the potential challenges posed by sediment connectivity across catchments from source to sink, and implications for delivery of ecosystem services determined by the condition of natural capital assets. Connectivity indices have been frequently applied in the calculation of risk in spatial and temporal assessment frameworks, and tools which facilitate rapid modelling and mapping of soil erosion risk using broad-scale environmental data are therefore of considerable interest. One such indicative tool is SCIMAP (Sensitive Catchment Integrated Mapping and Analysis Platform), which highlights where sediment runoff is likely to occur and be delivered to a watercourse by simulating the generation of saturation-excess overland flow. In this paper, we examine the utility of SCIMAP for exploring the changing nature of soil erosion risk as a function of land use change in the lower Rother catchment in West Sussex, southern England through the formulation of a suite of foresight scenarios informed by knowledge of historical land cover conditions and current management practice. The study area has previously been investigated at the field scale in terms of locating and quantifying sources of erosion and areas where in-stream sedimentation manifests. Output risk values from all simulations were quantified, mapped and compared to highlight areas of greatest/lowest risk. An area was identified immediately north of the main Rother channel that consistently exhibited greatest risk across each land cover scenario. We explore (i) the spatial and temporal variation in modelled risk and (ii) the utility value of SCIMAP for agricultural land-managers and policy-makers in generating robust risk estimates of soil erosion and in-stream sedimentation, and challenges with model verification in a foresight context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes changing perceptions of biological conditions due to a loss of historical knowledge. Perceptions of 'normal' environmental conditions are continually updated, leading to underestimation of the true magnitude of long-term ecological change and potential setting of unambitious management targets. There has been speculation as to the presence and impacts of SBS within conservation management since Daniel Pauly's seminal paper in 1995, which outlined the potential effects of SBS on target-setting in fisheries management. Previous case studies have suggested that SBS may not occur in management, despite empirical evidence of SBS in other systems. In this study, 44 professionals and volunteers involved in bird species management, monitoring and target-setting across England were interviewed. Interviews asked for personal perceptions of current, maximum and target abundance, long-term trends, and perceived conservation priority for six bird species. Using paired tests, this study found no significant effect of experience on perceptions of current, maximum or target abundance of all species, despite differences in national abundance and trends, and differences in participant experience. Further power analysis indicated that even if SBS was statistically detectible with a larger sample, the practical implications of the syndrome would be minimal due to small effect sizes. Finally, the effect of experience on individual perceptions of species conservation priority varied between species, with generational amnesia in the form of 'lifting baselines' suggested for only one of the six species. This study suggests that shifting baseline syndrome may not be as significant a threat in conservation management as first thought. • Shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) describes changing perceptions of biological conditions. • SBS has potential impacts on the ambitiousness of conservation target-setting. • No significant effect of experience on perceptions of species abundance or trends. • Power analysis indicates limited detectability of SBS in the sample. • Multiple factors influence managers' choice of conservation targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]