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The paper discusses the problem of modeling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. It is argued that theory rarely provides a complete dynamic specification for the model. Two empirical model selection procedures, a time series approach (Haugh and Box 1977 and Granger and Newbold 1977) and a sequential testing procedure (Hendry and Mizon 1978), are applied to suggest final-form forecasting equations for an Australian births series, first nuptial confinements. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their postsample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA type models of confinements, which are regarded as approximations to the confinements final equation model. This modeling strategy is contrasted with the method used to construct the Australian government's IMPACT demographic module. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the application of a Poisson common factor model for the projection of mortality jointly for females and males. The model structure is an extension of the classical Lee–Carter method in which there is a common factor for the aggregate population, while a number of additional sex-specific factors can also be incorporated. The Poisson distribution is a natural choice for modelling the number of deaths, and its use provides a formal statistical framework for model selection, parameter estimation, and data analysis. Our results for Australian data show that this model leads to projected life expectancy values similar to those produced by the separate projection of mortality for females and males, but possesses the additional advantage of ensuring that the projected male-to-female ratio for death rates at each age converges to a constant. Moreover, the randomness of the corresponding residuals indicates that the model fit is satisfactory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the management strategy evaluation (MSE) approach for rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) off in Victoria, Australia. It examines three categories of management strategy including the MSE and total allowable catches (TACs) set, by management zone or by region within management zone where a management strategy based on conducting assessments, and setting TACs by management zone. It reveals that the assessment method contains relatively accurate and precise method, but its estimation performance is poor on occasion.