Search

To determine the rate at which abstracts orally presented at the ECR 2000 were published between 2000-2004, and to identify predictive factors of publication and differences between abstracts and subsequently published papers. Specific search profiles were devised to retrieve items from the Medline database. From 1020 abstracts originating from 39 countries, 479 articles (publication rate 47%) were subsequently published in 139 Medline-indexed journals, most frequently in European Radiology (14%). Country of origin statistically (P<0.0001) influences the subsequent publication of the abstract, Germany having the highest number of presentations (n=343) and derived articles (publication rate 54%). Abstracts presented by authors from the USA (n=21) had the highest publication rate (76%). Most papers were published within the first 3 years after the meeting, as original articles and in English-language journals. Both the study sample size and the first author frequently changed. Chest and cardiac studies had the highest publication rates (56%, both). In summary, abstracts presented at the ECR 2000 had a high publication rate in Medline-indexed journals. Country of origin and subspecialty of presentation appeared to influence subsequent full publication. More articles were published in European Radiology than in other journal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having grandchildren is known to reduce individuals' labour supply. However, it is unclear whether there is a negative association between grandchild care provision and employment among grandparents. Moreover, we do not know how the magnitude of any association between the two activities may vary across countries characterised by different child-care policy regimes. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, this paper investigates the association between daily grandchild care provision and two employment outcomes for grandmothers and grandfathers aged 50–69: the probability of being employed and the average weekly working hours. Recursive bivariate models are used to account for the potential selection of grandparents with different unobserved traits into work and family care. Estimates are compared across four country groups characterised by different child-care policy orientations: optional de-familisation, service de-familisation, supported familism and familism by default. On average, across 20 European countries, grandparents looking after grandchildren daily are no less likely to work than grandparents who do not; however, employed grandfathers work eight hours less per week if providing daily child care. Evidence of a negative association between daily grandchild care and employment is strongest in countries with familistic approaches to child care, with no association in countries characterised by optional de-familisation. This suggests that public support to child care may help retain grandparents in the labour force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic variants disrupting DNA methylation at CpG dinucleotides (CpG-SNP) provide a set of known causal variants to serve as models to test fine-mapping methodology. We use 1716 CpG-SNPs to test three fine-mapping approaches (Bayesian imputation-based association mapping, Bayesian sparse linear mixed model, and the J-test), assessing the impact of imputation errors and the choice of reference panel by using both whole-genome sequence (WGS), and genotype array data on the same individuals (n = 1166). The choice of imputation reference panel had a strong effect on imputation accuracy, with the 1000 Genomes Project Phase 3 (1000G) reference panel (n = 2504 from 26 populations) giving a mean nonreference discordance rate between imputed and sequenced genotypes of 3.2% compared to 1.6% when using the Haplotype Reference Consortium (HRC) reference panel (n = 32,470 Europeans). These imputation errors had an impact on whether the CpG-SNP was included in the 95% credible set, with a difference of ~23% and ~7% between the WGS and the 1000G and HRC imputed datasets, respectively. All of the fine-mapping methods failed to reach the expected 95% coverage of the CpG-SNP. This is attributed to secondary cis genetic effects that are unable to be statistically separated from the CpG-SNP, and through a masking mechanism where the effect of the methylation disrupting allele at the CpG-SNP is hidden by the effect of a nearby SNP that has strong linkage disequilibrium with the CpG-SNP. The reduced accuracy in fine-mapping a known causal variant in a low-level biological trait with imputed genetic data has implications for the study of higher-order complex traits and disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Within the European Union (EU), substantial efforts are being made to achieve economic and social cohesion, and the reduction of health inequalities between EU regions is integral to this process. This paper is the first to examine how self-reported conditions and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) vary spatially between and within countries. Methods: Using 2014 European Social Survey (ESS) data from 20 countries, this paper examines how regional inequalities in self-reported conditions and NCDs vary for men and women in 174 regions (levels 1 and 2 Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units, 'NUTS'). We document absolute and relative inequalities across Europe in the prevalence of eight conditions: general health, overweight/obesity, mental health, heart or circulation problems, high blood pressure, back, neck, muscular or joint pain, diabetes and cancer. Results: There is considerable inequality in self-reported conditions and NCDs between the regions of Europe, with rates highest in the regions of continental Europe, some Scandinavian regions and parts of the UK and lowest around regions bordering the Alps, in Ireland and France. However, for mental health and cancer, rates are highest in regions of Eastern European and lowest in some Nordic regions, Ireland and isolated regions in continental Europe. There are also widespread and consistent absolute and relative regional inequalities in all conditions within countries. These are largest in France, Germany and the UK, and smallest in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. There were higher inequalities amongst women. Conclusion: Using newly available harmonized morbidity data from across Europe, this paper shows that there are considerable regional inequalities within and between European countries in the distribution of self-reported conditions and NCDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have proliferated in the last decade as part of electoral campaigns in Europe. Several studies have linked the usage of the applications to an increase in voting intention, yet the literature on the factors that make people more likely to be influenced by VAAs is not really developed. This paper tries to contribute to this literature by addressing two key questions: first, how non-institutional forms of political participation influence abstentionism among VAA users and second, how VAA encourages voting intention among these politically engaged abstentionists (activation effect). We first examine (a) whether being engaged in non-institutional forms of participation increases the likelihood of a VAA user declaring him/herself to be a voter and (b) whether being engaged in non-institutional forms of political participation has an effect on the probability of becoming a "voter" after filling in the VAA questionnaire. Our results suggest that the VAA "activation effect" nexus exists and it affects a significant percentage of abstentionist. Those users that have participated in non-institutional forms of participation – such as demonstrations or online petitions – are more likely to declare being voters before filling in the VAA. Among the abstentionists, once they answered the set of 30 key questions, a considerable percent (between 14 and 22 percent depending on the threshold used) declared to have the intention to vote (activation effect). The prevailing profile of the activated user is a young man with tertiary education. The motivational reason for voting a party also matter in increasing the probability that an "activation effect" happens. The competency of the party, its ideology, the candidate presented by the party and the users' self-interest are also good predictors of the "activation effect." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context/problem: Comparative analysis of relative and absolute mortality differentials between socioeconomic groups are now available. These show consistently increasing relative increases in mortality differentials but complex trends in absolute mortality differentials. Objective: This paper provides an analysis of relative and absolute trends in mortality by cause of death and socioeconomic group (SEG) from 1984 to 2008 among men and active women aged 30-64 years in Ireland and compares these results with recent European and US studies to give an overview of trends. Methods: This paper uses mortality data from the Irish Central Statistics Office from 1984 to 2008 to calculate standardized death rates by age, sex, socioeconomic status and cause of death showing trends in SEG inequalities in mortality in Ireland. These show which specific causes of death are driving all-cause mortality trends. Results: SEG differentials in all-cause mortality among men and women have been increasing since the 1980s. Some of this increase reflects larger falls in cardiovascular causes among advantaged groups, but the trend is largely accounted for by increasing inequalities in mortality in digestive, neoplasm and external causes of deaths. Conclusions: These findings are in line with international findings that show that socioeconomic differentials in digestive, neoplasm and external cause deaths are driving general socioeconomic differentials in all-cause mortality. External cause deaths may have been influenced by levels of economic activity, particularly in construction, during the economic boom among manual workers. Furthermore, deaths from digestive diseases during the 1990s and 2000s may well be the result of increases in liver disease associated with excessive alcohol consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses region-level technical efficiency in nine European countries over the 1995-2007 period. We propose the application of a nonparametric conditional frontier approach to account for the presence of heterogeneous conditions in the form of geographical externalities. Such environmental factors are beyond the control of regional authorities, but may affect the production function. Therefore, they need to be considered in the frontier estimation. Specifically, a spatial autoregressive term is included as an external conditioning factor in a robust order- m model. Thus we can test the hypothesis of non-separability (the external factor impacts both the input-output space and the distribution of efficiencies), demonstrating the existence of significant global interregional spillovers into the production process. Our findings show that geographical externalities affect both the frontier level and the probability of being more or less efficient. Specifically, the results support the fact that the spatial lag variable has an inverted U-shaped non-linear impact on the performance of regions. This finding can be interpreted as a differential effect of interregional spillovers depending on the size of the neighboring economies: positive externalities for small values, possibly related to agglomeration economies, and negative externalities for high values, indicating the possibility of production congestion. Additionally, evidence of the existence of a strong geographic pattern of European regional efficiency is reported and the levels of technical efficiency are acknowledged to have converged during the period under analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In a context of population ageing, it is a priority for planning and prevention to understand the socioeconomic (SE) patterning of functional limitations and its consequences on healthcare needs. This paper aims at measuring the gender and SE inequalities in functional limitations and their age of onset among the Southern European elderly; then, we evaluate how functional status is linked to formal and informal care use. Methods: We used Portuguese, Italian and Spanish data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) of 2011 (n = 9233). We constructed a summary functional limitation score as the sum of two variables: i) Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and ii) Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). We modelled the functional limitation as a function of age, gender, education, subjective poverty, employment and marital status using multinomial logit models. We then estimated how functional limitation affected informal and formal care demand using negative binomial and logistic models. Results: Women were 2.3 percentage points (pp) more likely to experience severe functional limitation than men, and overcame a 10% probability threshold of suffering from severe limitation around 5 years earlier. Subjective poverty was associated with a 3.1 pp. higher probability of severe functional limitation. Having a university degree reduced the probability of severe functional limitation by 3.5 pp. as compared to none educational level. Discrepancies were wider for the oldest old: women aged 65-79 years old were 3.3 pp. more likely to suffer severe limitations, the excess risk increasing to 15.5 pp. among those older than 80. Similarly, educational inequalities in functional limitation were wider at older ages. Being severely limited was related with a 32.1 pp. higher probability of receiving any informal care, as compared to those moderately limited. Finally, those severely limited had on average 3.2 hospitalization days and 4.6 doctor consultations more, per year, than those without limitations. Conclusion: Functional limitations are unequally distributed, hitting women and the worse-off earlier and more severely, with consequences on care needs. Considering the burden on healthcare systems and families, public health policies should seek to reduce current inequalities in functional limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine differences in the experience of somatic symptoms by domain (exhaustion, musculoskeletal, gastrointestinal, heart distress) between psychologically abused and non-abused older persons, and to scrutinize associations between abuse and somatic symptoms while considering other factors (e.g. social support). Design/methodology/approach – The design was cross-sectional. The participants were 4,467 women/men aged 60-84 years living in seven European cities. The data were analysed using bivariate/multivariate methods. Findings – Psychologically abused participants scored higher on all somatic symptom domains than non-abused, and thus were more affected by the symptoms. The regressions confirmed a positive association between psychological abuse and most somatic symptom domains, but other factors (e.g. depression, anxiety) were more salient. Demographics/socio-economics were positively (e.g. marriage/cohabitation) or negatively (e.g. education) associated with somatic symptoms depending on the domain. Social support and family structure “protected” the experience of somatic symptoms. Research limitations/implications – The research focused on psychological abuse. It did not incorporate other abuse types calling for further research on the effects of other abuse types on somatic symptoms. Nevertheless, the findings indicate that psychological abuse is linked to somatic symptoms, but the role of other factors (e.g. depression, anxiety, social support) is also important. Practical implications – Improvements in the older person's situation regarding somatic symptoms need to consider psychological abuse, co-morbidities, social support and living conditions. Originality/value – The paper reports data from the ABUEL Survey, which collected population-based data on elder abuse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The paper presents the first ethnobotanical application of Ellenberg indicator values, which are widely used in European plant ecology. The aim of the study was to find out if Ellenberg values (indicating habitat preferences) differ for wild food and medicinal plants used in north-eastern Istria (Croatia). We used Ellenberg-Pignatti values (the version of Ellenberg values used in this part of Europe). Methods: Fifty semi-structured interviews were carried out among local key informants, asking which wild food and medicinal plants they used. Results: The mean number of food and medicinal plants mentioned per interview was 30. Altogether, 121 species were recorded as food or medicine used or previously used in the study area. Thirty-one species are used exclusively as food or everyday drink, 50 species are used exclusively as medicine and 40 species are used for both food and medicine. There were no significant differences between Ellenberg values for food and medicinal plants, apart from the Nitrogen indicator value - the plants used exclusively as food had a significantly higher index than those used in medicine. This probably stems from the fact that plants with soft fleshy shoots are attractive as food and they are more likely to come from nitrogen-rich ruderal habitats. Conclusions: Food plants and medicinal plants are collected from a variety of habitats and no clear difference between the two categories of plants was detected, however further testing of Ellenberg values in ethnobotanical studies could be interesting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Financial difficulties in childhood may be associated with immediate and long-term consequences for mental health. The aim of the current paper is to investigate the association between childhood financial difficulties and adult depression, and assess the relative contribution of financial difficulties in childhood to symptoms of adult depression across different age groups. Methods: Using three age cohorts (25-40, 41-59, 60-75) from 19 countries in the European Social Survey Round 7 (N=18 401), multi-level and country-wise OLS regression analyses were used to investigate the association between financial difficulties in childhood and adult depression, while adjusting for age, education, gender, highest education in family, level of family conflict, number of social meetings and marital status. Results: Financial difficulties in childhood was found to be influential predictors of depression scores for 25-40 year olds in 10 out of 19 countries in fully adjusted models. In older participants, depression scores were mostly influenced by frequency of social meetings and marital status. There was great variation in the pattern of influential risk factors across countries, and the predicted effect childhood financial difficulties had on adult depression scores. Conclusion: Childhood financial difficulties as predictors of depression appear to, by themselves, exert the strongest influence in younger adults. There was, however, large variation between countries in the magnitude of associated risk, and in the pattern of risk factors contributing to adult depression, which underscores the need to account for country-level factors when aiming to gain knowledge about mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health inequalities persist between and within European countries. Such inequalities are usually explained by health behaviours and according to the conditions in which people work and live. However, little is known about the relative contribution of these factors to health inequalities in European countries. This paper aims to investigate the independent and joint contribution of a comprehensive set of behavioural, occupational and living conditions factors in explaining social inequalities in self-rated health (SRH). Method: Data from 21 countries was obtained from the 2014 European Social Survey and examined for respondents aged 25-75. Adjusted rate differences (ARD) and adjusted rate risks (ARR), generated from binary logistic regression models, were used to measure health inequalities in SRH and the contribution of behavioural, occupational and living conditions factors. Result: Absolute and relative inequalities in SRH were found in all countries and the magnitude of socio-economic inequalities varied considerably between countries. While factors were found to differentially contribute to the explanation of educational inequalities in different European countries, occupational and living conditions factors emerged as the leading causes of inequalities across most of the countries, contributing both independently and jointly with behavioural factors. Conclusion: The observed shared effects of different factors to health inequalities points to the interdependent nature of occupational, behavioural and living conditions factors. Tackling health inequalities should be a concentred effort that goes beyond interventions focused on single factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Large scale integration of wind energy poses new challenges to the European power system due to its stochastic nature and often remote location. In this paper a multivariate uncertainty analysis problem is formulated for the integration of stochastic wind energy in the European grid. By applying copula theory a synthetic set of data is generated from scarce wind speed reanalysis data in order to achieve the increased sample size for the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation. In the presented case study, European wind power samples are generated from the modeled stochastic process. Under the precondition of a modeled perfect market environment, wind power impacts dispatch decisions and therefore leads to alterations in power balances. Stochastic power balances are implemented in a detailed model of the European electricity network, based on the generated samples. Finally, a Monte Carlo method is used to determine power flows and contingencies in the system. An indicator is elaborated in order to analyze risk of overloading and to prioritize necessary grid reinforcements. Implications for the Swiss power grid are investigated in detail, revealing that the current system is significantly put at risk in certain areas by the further integration of wind power in Europe. It is the first time that the results of a probabilistic model for wind energy are further deployed within a power system analysis of the interconnected European grid. The method presented in this paper allows to account for stochastic wind energy in a load flow analysis and to evaluate deterministic indicators, such as the N −1 criterion, on a probabilistic basis. Thus, it constitutes an important extension of deterministic models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk Assessment is the systematic study of decisions subject to uncertain consequences. An increasing interest has been focused on modeling techniques like Bayesian Networks since their capability of (1) combining in the probabilistic framework different type of evidence including both expert judgments and objective data; (2) overturning previous beliefs in the light of the new information being received and (3) making predictions even with incomplete data. In this work, we proposed a comparison among Bayesian Networks and other classical Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques such as Neural Networks, Classification Trees, Random Forests and Logistic Regression models. Hybrid approaches, combining both Classification Trees and Bayesian Networks, were also considered. Among Bayesian Networks, a clear distinction between purely data-driven approach and combination of expert knowledge with objective data is made. The aim of this paper consists in evaluating among this models which best can be applied, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Assessment, to assess the safety of children who are exposed to the risk of inhalation/insertion/aspiration of consumer products. The issue of preventing injuries in children is of paramount importance, in particular where product design is involved: quantifying the risk associated to product characteristics can be of great usefulness in addressing the product safety design regulation. Data of the European Registry of Foreign Bodies Injuries formed the starting evidence for risk assessment. Results showed that Bayesian Networks appeared to have both the ease of interpretability and accuracy in making prediction, even if simpler models like logistic regression still performed well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to describe research undertaken for the European Internet Accessibility Observatory (EIAO) project. It aims to demonstrate how, using a task-based approach, statistical measures can be applied to an initial assessment of a web site's accessibility, which could then be applied to further assessments to provide an evolving picture of the ongoing accessibility of a web site. Design/methodology/approach - Task-based assessments were used to assess the accessibility of web sites, using quantitative and qualitative analysis. The findings from this approach were mapped onto a probabilistic model, developed to assess the probability of an accessibility barrier relating to a specific feature or features of a web site. Findings - The paper finds that providing participants with a task instead of allowing them to randomly explore and evaluate a web site yielded more comparable results. For the EIAO project team, the benefit of the task-based approach was that it allowed them to compare the user testing results with the results of the automated testing tool developed by the project. From the aggregation models included in the analysis, the most appropriate model and parameters were selected, and adjustments were made according to the comparison outcome. Research limitations/implications - Due to resource limitations and efficiency requirements, the assessments undertaken were limited to automatic evaluation, which could also be tested by the users. Therefore not all accessibility barriers in a web site could be identified. Despite this, it is felt that the outcome of the automatic analysis can be utilised as indicator for the overall accessibility of the web site. Originality/value - This paper provides a framework for web designers, commissioners, and policy makers to undertake a user focussed assessment of the accessibility of their web sites, which could be used in conjunction with other assessment methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The European 'Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence' (HELENA) project evaluated two different approaches to harmonize the matching procedures between 24-h recall data and food composition databases. In the first approach, the 24-h recall data were linked to the local/national food composition databases using standardized procedures, while in the second approach, the 24-h recall data were linked to the German BLS database which includes a larger food list. The aim of this paper was to compare the intakes of energy and eight nutrient components calculated via both approaches. Methods: Two non-consecutive 24-h recalls were performed in 1268 adolescents. Energy, carbohydrates, proteins, fat, fiber, water, alcohol, calcium and vitamin C were calculated via the two approaches at individual level. Paired samples t test and Pearson's correlations were used to compare the mean intakes of energy and the eight mentioned nutrients and to investigate the possible associations between the two approaches. Results: Small but significant differences were found between the intakes of energy and the eight food components when comparing both approaches. Very strong and strong correlations (0.70-0.95) were found between both methods for all nutrients. Conclusion: The dietary intakes obtained via the two different linking procedures are highly correlated for energy and the eight nutrients under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the impact of education on regional mobility in Europe using compulsory schooling reforms. Using data on individuals from eight European countries, I find that people who are induced by a school reform to acquire one more year of education are much more likely to relocate to another region in their country between the age of 15 and 50. I also show that education increases the probability of moving to a city for people from rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Diet quality indices add an important dimension to dietary assessment. The aim of this systematic review was to: (i) identify and describe the attributes and applications of diet quality indices developed for use or used in paediatric populations; (ii) describe associations between these diet quality indices and health-related variables in paediatric populations; and (iii) identify factors that are associated with diet quality in paediatric populations worldwide. Methods Studies were identified by searching electronic databases for relevant papers from 1980 to October 2013 using keywords. Inclusion criteria were original studies that utilised a quantitative measure of diet quality in children and adolescents aged 0-18 years. Results One hundred and nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria, from which 80 different diet quality indices were identified. The majority of studies had >1000 participants and were of acceptable quality. Of the 56 studies that investigated health-related outcomes, weight status was the most researched. Europe produced the most number of diet quality indices ( n = 27 indices). Of the 119 studies, seven intervention studies were identified. Paediatric diet quality indices were found to be associated with environmental, behavioural and maternal factors. Conclusions The use of diet quality indices in paediatric populations is a rapidly expanding area of research in diverse populations internationally. In economically disadvantaged countries, diet quality indices may be predictive of child growth. However, prospective cohort, intervention and validation studies are required to draw stronger conclusions concerning risk of future disease in paediatric populations in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a variety of methods of statistical cluster analysis to examine how EU countries (other than the new East European members) are grouped. Using the four dimensions, family, market vs state, religion and clientelism, the results of the analysis are that Southern European/Mediterranean (SE/M) countries form a distinct cluster that, both in its existence and in its difference from the conservative cluster, contradicts the notion of ‘three worlds of welfare capitalism’. In addition Ireland, though not geographically contiguous, falls into the SE/M grouping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the characterization of the probability density of the price returns in some European day-ahead electricity markets (NordPool, APX, Powernext) by fitting flexible and general families of distributions, such as the α-stable, Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG), Exponential Power (EP), and Asymmetric Exponential Power (AEP) distributions, and comparing their goodness of fit. The α-stable and the NIG systematically outperform the EP and AEP models, but the tail behavior and the skewness are sensitive to the definition of the returns and to the deseasonalization methods. In particular, the logarithmic transform and volatility rescaling tend to dampen the extreme returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the effect that gender-based earnings discrimination has on self-employment dynamics among females, with a focus on four countries in Western Europe. Using data from the European Community Household Panel in the 1999–2001 time period, we test the hypothesis that the probability of moving into self-employment is positively related to prior earnings discrimination, as measured by unexplained deviations from expected (male) earnings. Our findings suggest that women who have lower than expected wage sector earnings are more likely to leave wage employment in the following year. The results with respect to discrimination, per se, however, are mixed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper analyses the labour-force transitions of older workers with disabilities in general, particularly workers’ transitions to and from part-time employment within a European context. Using the two first waves (2004 and 2007) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we compare transitions between employment statuses for disabled and non-disabled individuals, even after controlling for different disability trajectories. In addition, we employ a multivariate framework to examine the determinants for remaining in part-time work in 2007 for those individuals who were part-timers in 2004. The results show that older people with long-term disabilities have a higher probability of staying in a part-time job than their compared counterparts. Policy-makers must promote part-time employment as a means of increasing employment opportunities for older workers with disabilities and support gradual retirement opportunities with flexible and reduced working hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Working-age households where no-one is in work have become an increasing focus of policy concern even before the economic crisis, and the European Union (EU) has included household joblessness in its new poverty reduction target for 2020. This paper focuses on the variation across EU countries in the prevalence of household joblessness and its impact on income poverty and deprivation, and on the implications for the new EU poverty reduction target. It highlights first that there are some divergences across key data sources in the extent of joblessness. The prevalence of household joblessness varies substantially across EU countries, but there is little evidence of a consistent pattern among groupings of countries often categorized together in terms of welfare regime or geographically. In aggregate there is little association between the overall extent of household joblessness in a country and the percentage in relative income poverty or above a material deprivation threshold. At a micro level, being in a jobless household has a substantial impact on the likelihood of being in relative income poverty or deprived, but the scale of these impacts is shown to be very much greater in some countries than in others, and to vary between single-adult and multiple-adult households. In most EU countries little more than half the working-age adults in jobless households are either income-poor or deprived, so including joblessness in the poverty reduction target does make a difference, without a clearly articulated rationale. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Power grids are prone to failure. Time series of reliability measures such as total power loss or energy not supplied can give significant account of the underlying dynamical behavior of these systems, specially when the resulting probability distributions present remarkable features such as an algebraic tail, usually considered the footprint of self-organization and the existence of critical points. In this paper, 7years (from 2002 to 2008) of Europe’s transport of electricity network failure events have been analyzed and the best fit for this empirical data probability distribution is presented. With the actual span of available data and although there exists a moderate support for the power-law model, the relatively small amount of events contained in the function’s tail suggests that causal factors other than self-organization or a critical state might be significantly ruling these systems’ dynamics. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between health shocks and labour market outcomes in 9 European countries using the European Community Household Panel. Matching techniques are used to control for the non-experimental nature of the data. The results suggest that there is a significant causal effect from health on the probability of employment: individuals who incur a health shock are significantly more likely to leave employment and transit into disability. The estimates differ across countries, with the largest employment effects being found in The Netherlands, Denmark, Spain and Ireland, and the smallest in France and Italy. Differences in social security arrangements help to explain these cross-country differences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The use of probability of detection curves to quantify NDT reliability is common in the aeronautical industry, but relatively less so in the nuclear industry, at least in European countries. The main reason for this lies in the very nature of the components being inspected. Sample sizes of inspected flaws tend to be much lower and it is often very difficult to procure or manufacture representative flaws in test-pieces in a high enough number to draw statistical conclusions on the reliability of the NDT system being investigated. Similar considerations led to the development of the ENIQ inspection qualification methodology, based on the idea of the technical justification, ie a document assembling evidence and reasoning providing assurance that the NDT system is indeed capable of finding the flaws which it is designed to detect. The ENIQ methodology has become widely used in many European countries and is gaining appreciation outside Europe as well, but the assurance it provides is usually of a qualitative nature. The need to quantify the output of inspection qualification has become more and more important, especially as structural reliability modelling and quantitative risk-informed in-service inspection methodologies become more widely used. To credit the inspections in structural reliability evaluations, a measure of the NDT reliability is necessary. A probability of detection (POD) curve provides such metric. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the statistical models proposed to quantify NDT reliability, to highlight the potential problems that can arise if the main underlying assumptions and requirements are not verified and to clarify the confusion that can arise over the nature of the POD curve and associated confidence bounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of air voids, moisture, and chlorides inside tendon systems on segmental posttensioned (PT) bridges has been cited as a reason for the early age corrosion and failure of strands in these bridges. This paper develops probabilistic models to predict the time-variant tension capacity of PT strands exposed to wet-dry conditions. A total of 384 unstressed and 162 stressed strand test specimens were exposed to various void, moisture, and chloride conditions for 0, 12, 16, and 21 months; the residual tension capacities of the strands were then determined. Using these experimental data, a Bayesian approach is used to develop probabilistic capacity models for unstressed and stressed strands. The tension capacities of stressed strands under potential void, wet-dry, and chloride conditions in the field are predicted using the developed models. Probabilistic time-variant models are formulated in such a way that they can be updated by other researchers using additional information from the testing of unstressed strands only, avoiding expensive and cumbersome testing of stressed strands. The mean absolute percentage errors of these models are less than 3.2%, indicating good overall model accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of waterfowl harvest on the dynamics of duck populations remains incompletely understood. While widescale monitoring and management programs have been set up in North America, far less has been done in Europe where populations and harvest are essentially managed at country level with a sole focus on population size. Hence, comparing North American waterfowl populations with European waterfowl populations could be useful in suggesting flywayscale management options in Europe. In our paper, we analyse historical capture-recapture-recoveries data for the European teal Anas crecca crecca and we compare the computed survival and harvest rates to those obtained from a North American recovery data set for the green-winged teal Anas crecca carolinensis, its sister taxon. During 1960-1976, the annual probability of survival was slightly lower in Europe (average over sexes: 0.485 6 0.101) than in North America (0.54560.010 for both sexes). Assuming a30%ring reporting rate, our estimate of the annual harvest rate was about three times higher in Europe (average over sexes: 0.17860.051) than in North America (average over sexes: 0.071 6 0.014). Although the European population increased over the study period and continues to do so, such a hunting pressure may potentially reduce our flexibility in managing this population due to uncertainties such as environmental changes, and have deleterious effects in the long term.Weuse our results to discuss waterfowl research and management in Europe. Initiating studies to estimate ring reporting rate would be an essential first step to properly evaluate the impact of harvest on the dynamics of the teal population in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extreme dependency score EDS has been recently proposed as a nonvanishing measure of skill to verify predictions of rare events. An idealized example is employed to investigate the properties of the EDS when the probability of the event happening is small, as is the case for rare events. The paper warns about the nondependency of EDS on the false alarms and the correct rejections when the sample size is fixed, which encourages hedging. Thus, the EDS should not be the sole score used to assess a models performance on forecasting rare events. The dependency of the EDS on the event probability base rate is also analysed. It is shown that the EDS can be written as a function of the base rate and the hit rate, and that only in a very particular condition the score is independent of the event probability. Therefore, when comparing forecasts skills in terms of the EDS, special attention has to be paid to separate the variations in skill from the variations of the probability that the event happens over time.The score is used to assess the performance of the ECMWF deterministic precipitation forecast over Europe for different forecast ranges and precipitation thresholds. Verification of precipitation forecasts in terms of EDS, combined with an assessment of the false alarm rate, shows a clear improvement of the ECMWF deterministic forecast for precipitation of rare events i.e. large rainfall amounts. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to examine the relationships between antecedents and consequences of bridge employment activity; second~ to analyze the mediator role both of quality and quantity of bridge employment activities in the relationship between antecedents and consequences. First wave panel data from the SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) were obtained from 1190 men and women in Europe, using structured interviews and questionnaires. Structural equation modeling analyses, including the sample without missing values (N= 650), showed that both quantity and quality of bridge employment participation are predictors of job satisfaction, life satisfaction, and quality of life in retirement. These results validate and expand the previous research on bridge employment activities and partial retirement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Nonparametric RTLLR is introduced for the first time for wind speed density estimation. • RTLLR estimator provides more accurate results than conventional KDE approaches. • Parametric distributions are assessed and found to provide a poor fit for wind speed data. • Assessments are carried out using hourly wind speed data at eight sites in Europe. Despite the many attractive features of wind-based renewables, the intermittency of wind generation stands out as a critical challenge. An accurate and reliable nonparametric wind speed probability density model is proposed in this paper based on the application of local linear regression in tandem with a root transformation method, introduced here for the first time. The proposed root-transformed local linear regression approach provides a robust estimate of wind speed distribution and produces more accurate results than kernel density estimation models. The performance of the root-transformed local linear regression estimator is assessed via comparisons with three popular parametric models (Rayleigh, Weibull and Gaussian distributions), two additional parametric models (Birnbaum–Saunders and Nakagami distributions) recently suggested for wind speed probability density estimation, and two nonparametric kernel density estimation models using two standard goodness-of-fit hypothesis tests (Chi-squared and Kolmogorov–Smirnov), coefficient of determination and two error metrics (root mean square error and mean absolute error). Results confirm the accuracy of the proposed root-transformed local linear regression estimator for modelling wind speed probability density, with substantial improvements in all error metrics over parametric and kernel density estimation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]