Search

• An average case fatality ratio over the first six months after the outbreak of COVID-19 in Poland was 5.43% (95% CI: 5.08% – 5.73%), while among hospitalized cases 16.9% (15.8% – 17.9%). • The case fatality rate had a decreasing trend in time starting from 7.83% (7.08% – 8.61%) during first eight weeks after the outbreak (March – April), to reach 2.52% (2.06% – 3.02%) during the summer season (July – August). • Recent medical care as well as the identification of the source contact, independently of the age, sex and comorbidities, significantly impact an individual mortality risk. After more than one and a half year since the COVID-19 pandemics outbreak the scientific world is constantly trying to understand its dynamics. In this paper of the case fatality rates (CFR) for COVID-19 we study the historic data regarding mortality in Poland during the first six months of pandemic, when no SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were present among infected. To this end, we apply competing risk models to perform both uni- and multivariate analyses on specific subpopulations selected by different factors including the key indicators: age, sex, hospitalization. The study explores the case fatality rate to find out its decreasing trend in time. Furthermore, we describe the differences in mortality among hospitalized and other cases indicating a sudden increase of mortality among hospitalized cases at the end of the 2020 spring season. Exploratory and multivariate analysis revealed the real impact of each variable and besides the expected factors indicating increased mortality (age, comorbidities) we track more non-obvious indicators. Recent medical care as well as the identification of the source contact, independently of the comorbidities, significantly impact an individual mortality risk. As a result, the study provides a twofold insight into the COVID-19 mortality in Poland. On one hand we explore mortality in different groups with respect to different variables, on the other we indicate novel factors that may be crucial in reducing mortality. The later can be coped, e.g. by more efficient contact tracing and proper organization and management of the health care system to accompany those who need medical care independently of comorbidities or COVID-19 infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even reaching the end of the year 2022, there is still a controversy on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This Virtual Special Issue (VSI), focused on the "Scientific evidence on the origin of SARS-CoV-2", was launched some months ago with the aim of stimulating the submission of new high quality scientific research papers on the matter, to shed light on it. As indicated in the call for papers, the Editors involved in the VSI were aware of the difficulties of presenting concluding facts on that issue, however, bearing in mind that some teams of researchers had started investigations regarding this subject, a VSI like this (searching for stimulating the scientific controversy while requiring scientific evidence), could help to elucidate complicated aspects, going a step ahead in this way. The Editors made a call encouraging interested teams of researchers having solid results to submit high quality manuscripts dealing with this crucial theme. We thought -and we still think-that it is of maximum interest for the scientific community, as well as for the whole society, now and probably for the future. The VSI have received 50 submissions, which could be considered a limited number highlighting the difficulties of elaborating new high-quality manuscripts providing solid evidence on the matter. After a careful peer-review, those manuscripts considered to reach the highest scientific value were accepted for publication. The Editors think that the set of papers included in this VSI constitute interesting and high-quality contributions, providing further scientific knowledge on this issue. In this editorial piece, the Editors make some comments on the papers published, including some additional reflections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wastewater monitoring as a public health tool is well-established and the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has seen its widespread uptake. Given the significant potential of wastewater monitoring as a public health surveillance and decision support tool, it is important to understand what measures are required to allow the long-term benefits of wastewater monitoring to be fully realized, including how to establish and/or maintain public support. The potential for positive SARS-CoV-2 detections to trigger enforced, community-wide public health interventions (e.g., lockdowns and other impacts on civil liberties) further emphasises the need to better understand the role of public engagement in successful wastewater-based monitoring programs. This paper systematically reviews the processes of building and maintaining the social license to operate wastewater monitoring. We specifically explore the relationship between different stakeholder communities and highlight the information and actions that are required to establish a social license to operate and then prevent its loss. The paper adds to the literature on social license to operate by extending its application to new domains and offers a dynamic model of social license to help guide the agenda for researcher and practitioner communities. • The requirement for social license to undertake wastewater monitoring is systematically scrutinized. • A dynamic framework for social license to monitor for COVID-19 is developed and presented. • Important gaps and additional steps for maintaining social license are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is continuing to spread. There are growing concerns on the impact of COVID-19 in cancer patients. Several papers reporting recommendations and guidelines are published. But few data on cancer patients affected by COVID-19 are available. This is a retrospective study including all consecutive patients affected by gynecological cancer who developed COVID-19. All patients were treated in an academic setting (in Milan, Lombardy, Italy) between February and March 2020. Overall, 355 patients had active treatment during the study period due to newly diagnosed or recurrent gynecological disease. Among those, 19 (5.3%) patients affected developed COVID-19. All patients were asymptomatic at the time of COVID-19 detection. Six patients were diagnosed before starting planned treatments; while the remaining 13 were diagnosed for COVID-19 after their started their treatments. Considering the first group of six patients, one patient died due to COVID-19 3 days after the diagnosis; while the other patients recovered from COVID-19 after a median of three weeks. The latter group of 13 patients (treatments started) included five patients who underwent surgery and eight patients who underwent chemotherapy. Focusing on five patients who were diagnosed after surgery, we observed that two patients died during postoperative course, while in other two cases prolonged hospitalization was needed. One patient had no issues. Chemotherapy was delayed for the remaining patents without sequelae. Our report highlights that COVID-19 impacts the quality of treatments for cancer patients. Mortality rate is high, especially after surgery. More important, patients under active treatment for cancer are at high risk of developing severe evolution of COVID-19. Prioritizing patients journey during COVID-19 is of paramount importance. • There are growing concerns on the impact of COVID-19 in cancer patients. • COVID-19 is impacting oncologic practice directly and indirectly. • Prioritizing patients journey during COVID-19 is of paramount importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had a big impact in Italy, mainly concentrated in the northern part of the Country. All this was mainly due to similarities of this area with Wuhan in Hubei Province, according to geographical, environmental and socio-economic points of view. The basic hypothesis of this research was that the presence of atmospheric pollutants can generate stress on health conditions of the population and determine pre-conditions for the development of diseases of the respiratory system and complications related to them. In most cases the attention on environmental aspects is mainly concentrated on pollution, neglecting issues such as land management which, in some way, can contribute to reducing the impact of pollution. The reduction of land take and the decrease in the loss of ecosystem services can represent an important aspect in improving environmental quality. In order to integrate policies for environmental change and human health, the main factors analyzed in this paper can be summarized in environmental, climatic and land management. The main aim of this paper was to produce three different hazard scenarios respectively related to environmental, climatic and land management-related factors. A Spatial Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method has been applied over thirteen informative layers grouped in aggregation classes of environmental, climatic and land management. The results of the health hazard maps show a disparity in the distribution of territorial responses to the pandemic in Italy. The environmental components play an extremely relevant role in the definition of the red zones of hazard, with a consequent urgent need to renew sustainable development strategies. The comparison of hazard maps related to different scenarios provides decision makers with tools to orient policy choices with a different degree of priority according to a place-based approach. In particular, the geospatial representation of risks could be a tool for legitimizing the measures chosen by decision-makers, proposing a renewed approach that highlights and takes account of the differences between the spatial contexts to be considered - Regions, Provinces, Municipalities - also in terms of climatic and environmental variables. • COVID-19 had a big impact in Italy, mainly in the northern part of the Country. • Reduction of land take and ecosystem services' loss improve environmental quality. • Environmental, climatic and land management can be leveraged for pandemic policies. • Geospatial representation of risks is a useful approach to support decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the rise of the Covid-19 pandemic, several researchers stated the possibility of a positive relationship between Covid-19 spread and climatic parameters. An ecological study in 12 Iranian cities using the report of daily deaths from Covid-19 (March to August 2020) and validated data on air pollutants, considering average concentrations in each city in the last year used to analyze the association between chronic exposure to air pollutants and the death rate from Covid-19 in Iran. Poisson regression models were used, with generalized additive models and adjustment variables. A significant increase of 2.7% (IC(95%) 2.6–4.4) was found in the mortality rate due to Covid-19 due to an increase of 1 μg/m3 of NO 2. The results suggest an association between Covid-19 mortality and NO 2 exposure. As a risk approximation associated with air pollution, more precise analysis is done. The results also show a good consistency with studies from other regions; this paper's results can be useful for the public health policymakers and decision-making to control the Covid-19 spread. • A reliable Covid-19 data from Iran was used in this paper. • 12 cities were considered from all of the minor climate conditions of the country to minimize the climate bias. • Correlation of the air pollution and the other most effective diseases on the Covid-19 is also studied. • Nox was the most effective particle and had a significant impact on the Covid-19 mortality rate. • For a 1% increase in the NO 2 concentration, there will be a 2.7% increase in the Covid-19 mortality rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title of the Virtual Special Issue (VSI) "SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogenic microorganisms in the environment", clearly indicates a main focus not only on the virus causing the current pandemic, but also on other pathogenic microorganisms and their spatial and temporal dynamics in environmental compartments. Overall, the VSI has received more than 100 submissions relating to most of the possible fields connected to the pandemic, many of them of high scientific value. A rigorous peer-reviewing process has been carried out, with a panel of experts making a great work to evaluate that important number of submissions. As a result, those manuscripts reaching the highest scientific standards were selected for publication. We think that the papers included constitute a set of high-quality contributions, which should help to improve the overall scientific perspective regarding this crucial issue. In this piece, the Editors comment some issues on the papers accepted for publication, and include additional reflections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an overview of the TREC-COVID Challenge, an information retrieval (IR) shared task to evaluate search on scientific literature related to COVID-19. The goals of TREC-COVID include the construction of a pandemic search test collection and the evaluation of IR methods for COVID-19. The challenge was conducted over five rounds from April to July 2020, with participation from 92 unique teams and 556 individual submissions. A total of 50 topics (sets of related queries) were used in the evaluation, starting at 30 topics for Round 1 and adding 5 new topics per round to target emerging topics at that state of the still-emerging pandemic. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the structure and results of TREC-COVID. Specifically, the paper provides details on the background, task structure, topic structure, corpus, participation, pooling, assessment, judgments, results, top-performing systems, lessons learned, and benchmark datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There a lot of review papers addressing specific COVID-19 research sectors, then devoted to specialists. This review provides an in-depth summary of the available information about SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding disease (also known as COVID-19), with a multi-disciplinary approach. After the paper introduction, the first section treats the virological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, the medical implications of the infection, and the human susceptivity. Great attention is devoted to the factor affecting the infection routes, distinguishing among the possible human-to-human, environmental-to-human, and pollution-to-human transmission mechanisms. The second section is devoted to reporting the impact of SARS-CoV-2 not only on the healthcare systems but also on the economy and society. The third section is devoted to non-pharmaceutical behaviours against COVID-19. In this context, this review section presents an analysis of the European second wave allowing not only to focalize the importance of some restrictions, but also the relevance of social acceptance of some measures. The data reassumed in this work are very useful for interdisciplinary researchers that work in a team to find the basic available information about all the aspects connected with this pandemic (from virus diffusion mechanism to health information, from economic and social impacts to measures to reduce the pandemic spread), with great attention to social acceptance of restriction measures and of vaccines (that currently results to be insufficient to achieve community immunity). Then, this review paper highlights the fundamental role of the trans-multi-disciplinary research that is devoted not only to understand the basics of the pandemic to propose solutions but has also the commitment to find strategies to increase population resilience. For this aim, the authors strongly suggest the establishment of an international health-care trans-multi-disciplinary workforce devoted to investigate, mitigate, and control also future viral events. [Display omitted] • COVID-19 is a highly transmissible disease that has spread all over the globe. • The interdisciplinary research strategy in pandemic has a basic role. • Some concerns due to the reported transmission mechanisms must be better investigated. • The social acceptance of vaccine and restriction measures must be improved. • A health-care multidisciplinary workforce for pandemic study should be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Coordination of scientific research communities supported mathematical modelling of COVID-19. • Pre-existing research collaborations contributed to the success of coordination initiatives. • National infrastructure is key to support nationwide research networks. • Evidence synthesis important in supporting scientists providing advice to government. In March 2020 mathematics became a key part of the scientific advice to the UK government on the pandemic response to COVID-19. Mathematical and statistical modelling provided critical information on the spread of the virus and the potential impact of different interventions. The unprecedented scale of the challenge led the epidemiological modelling community in the UK to be pushed to its limits. At the same time, mathematical modellers across the country were keen to use their knowledge and skills to support the COVID-19 modelling effort. However, this sudden great interest in epidemiological modelling needed to be coordinated to provide much-needed support, and to limit the burden on epidemiological modellers already very stretched for time. In this paper we describe three initiatives set up in the UK in spring 2020 to coordinate the mathematical sciences research community in supporting mathematical modelling of COVID-19. Each initiative had different primary aims and worked to maximise synergies between the various projects. We reflect on the lessons learnt, highlighting the key roles of pre-existing research collaborations and focal centres of coordination in contributing to the success of these initiatives. We conclude with recommendations about important ways in which the scientific research community could be better prepared for future pandemics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We modify a model of zoonosis emergence to predict coronavirus intermediate hosts. • This technique requires only host species ecological and epidemiological information. • We accurately predict the intermediate hosts for SARS and MERS. • We find mink, pangolins, and ferrets as potential intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2. Intermediate host species provide a crucial link in the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases, serving as a population where an emerging pathogen can mutate to become human-transmissible. Identifying such species is thus a key component of predicting and possibly mitigating future epidemics. Despite this importance, intermediate host species have not been investigated in much detail, and have generally only been identified by testing for the presence of pathogens in multiple candidate species. In this paper, we present a mathematical model able to identify likely intermediate host species for emerging zoonoses based on ecological data for the candidates and epidemiological data for the pathogen. Since coronaviruses frequently emerge through intermediate host species and, at the time of writing, pose an urgent pandemic threat, we apply the model to the three emerging coronaviruses of the twenty-first century, accurately predicting palm civets as intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-1 and dromedary camels as intermediate hosts for MERS. Further, we suggest mink, pangolins, and ferrets as intermediate host species for SARS-CoV-2. With the capacity to evaluate intermediate host likelihood among different species, researchers can focus testing for possible infection sources and interventions more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the appearance of the first cases of COVID-19 in 2019, an unprecedented number of documents on that disease have been published in a short space of time. The current available information covers a large number of topics related with COVID-19 and/or the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) responsible of the disease. However, only a limited number of publications have been focused on a controversial issue: the origin of the SARS-CoV-2. In this paper, the scientific literature on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 has been reviewed. Documents published during 2020 and 2021 (January 1-July 19) in journals that are indexed in PubMed and/or Scopus has been considered. The revised studies were grouped according to these two potential origins: natural and unnatural. The analyses of the conclusions of the different documents here assessed show that even considering the zoonotic hypothesis as the most likely, with bats and pangolins being possibly in the origin of the coronavirus, today's date the intermediate source species of SARS-CoV-2 has not been confirmed yet. On the other hand, some researchers point to an unnatural origin of this coronavirus, but their conclusions are not strongly supported by a clear scientific evidence. Given the tremendous severity of the current pandemic, investigations to establish clearly and definitively the origin of SARS-CoV-2, are basic and essential in order to prevent potential future pandemics of similar nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the problems hardly clarified in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis is to identify factors associated with a lower mortality of COVID-19 between countries to design strategies to cope with future pandemics in society. The study here confronts this problem by developing a global analysis based on more than 160 countries. This paper proposes that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, healthcare spending and air pollution of nations are critical factors associated with fatality rate of COVID-19. The statistical evidence seems in general to support that countries with a low average COVID-19 fatality rate have high expenditures in health sector >7.5% of GDP, high health expenditures per capita >$2,300 and a lower exposure of population to days exceeding safe levels of particulate matter (PM 2.5). Another relevant finding here is that these countries have lower case fatality rates (CFRs) of COVID-19, regardless a higher percentage of population aged more than 65 years. Overall, then, this study finds that an effective and proactive strategy to reduce the negative impact of future pandemics, driven by novel viral agents, has to be based on a planning of enhancement of healthcare sector and of environmental sustainability that can reduce fatality rate of infectious diseases in society. • Expenditures in health sector >7.5% of GDP can reduce COVID-19 mortality between countries. • Health expenditures >$2,300 per capita can lessen COVID-19 mortality between countries. • Lower exposure of population to days having high levels of air pollution reduces COVID-19 mortality. • High health expenditures reduce COVID-19 mortality, though a high share of older population. • Efficient healthcare sector and environmental sustainability minimize case fatality rates of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

About the authors As epidemiologists working for over 20 years in air pollution, we have played a role on the narrative about the health impacts from exposure to air pollution. Dear Editor, We read with interest this paper on air pollution in Canada ([10]) and its possible contribution to an increased incidence of COVID-19. Studies of air pollution and COVID-19 may detract from the needed implementation of public health measures needed to control the spread of COVID-19. [Extracted from the article]

How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a heavy human cost—taken together, this public health crisis and its attendant economic downturn appear poised to dwarf the scope, scale, and disruptiveness of most modern pandemics. What evidence we do have about other modern pandemics is largely limited to short-run impacts. Consequently, recent experience can do little to help us anticipate and respond to COVID-19's potential long-run impact on individuals over decades and even generations. History, however, offers a solution. Historical crises offer closer analogues to COVID-19 in each of its key dimensions—as a global pandemic, as a global recession—and offer the runway necessary to study the life-course and intergenerational outcomes. In this paper, we review the evidence on the long-run effects on health, labor, and human capital of both historical pandemics (with a focus on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic) and historical recessions (with a focus on the Great Depression). We conclude by discussing how past crises can inform our approach to COVID-19—helping tell us what to look for, what to prepare for, and what data we ought to collect now. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of social distancing and wearing masks has been popular worldwide in combating the contraction of COVID-19. Undeniably, although such practices help control the COVID-19 pandemic to a greater extent, the complete control of virus-laden droplet and aerosol transmission by such practices is poorly understood. This review paper intends to outline the literature concerning the transmission of virus-laden droplets and aerosols in different environmental settings and demonstrates the behavior of droplets and aerosols resulted from a cough-jet of an infected person in various confined spaces. The case studies that have come out in different countries have, with prima facie evidence, manifested that the airborne transmission plays a profound role in contracting susceptible hosts. The infection propensities in confined spaces (airplane, passenger car, and healthcare center) by the transmission of droplets and aerosols under varying ventilation conditions were discussed. Interestingly, the nosocomial transmission by airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus-laden aerosols in healthcare facilities may be plausible. Hence, clearly defined, science-based administrative, clinical, and physical measures are of paramount importance to eradicate the COVID-19 pandemic from the world. • Social distancing and wearing masks became popular worldwide for control of COVID-19. • Droplet and aerosol transmission of COVID-19 has been poorly understood. • Examples have been reported to speculate the airborne transmission of COVID-19. • Nosocomial infection through airborne transmission seems plausible in confined spaces. • Proper administrative, clinical, and physical measures are paramount to combat the transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]