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Air pollution in the form of particulate matter (PM) is becoming one of the greatest current threats to human health on a global scale. This paper firstly presents a Bayesian space–time hierarch piecewise regression model (BSTHPRM) which can self-adaptively detect the transitions of local trends, accounting for spatial correlations. The spatiotemporal trends of the approximately anthropogenic PM 2.5 removed natural dust (PM 2.5_No Dust) concentrations and the corresponding population's PM 2.5_No Dust exposure (PPM 2.5 E) in the global continent from 1998 to 2016 were investigated by the presented BSTHPRM. The total areas of the high and higher PM 2.5_No Dust -polluted regions, whose spatial relative magnitude of PM 2.5_NoDust pollution to the global continental overall level was between 1.89 and 14.68, accounted for about 13.4% of the global land area, and the corresponding exposed populations accounted for 56.0% of the global total population. The spatial heterogeneity of the global PM 2.5_NoDust pollution increased generally from 1998 to 2016. The areas of hot, warm, and cold spots with increasing trends of PM 2.5_NoDust concentration initially contracted and then later expanded. The local trends of the global continental PM 2.5_NoDust concentrations and PPM 2.5 E can be parted into three changing stages, early, medium, and later stages, using the BSTHPRM. The area proportions of the regions experiencing a decreasing trend of PM 2.5_NoDust concentrations and PPM 2.5 E were greater in the medium stage than in the early and later stages. The local trends of PM 2.5_NoDust concentration and PPM 2.5 E in the two higher PM 2.5_NoDust polluted areas, northern India and eastern and southern China, increased in the early stage and then decreased in the medium stage. In the later stage (recent years), northern India displayed a stronger increasing trend; nevertheless, the follow-up decreasing trend still occurred in eastern and southern China. In the first two stages, more than half of the areas in Europe experienced a decreasing trend of PM 2.5_NoDust concentration and PPM 2.5 E; later, more than half of areas in Europe exhibited increasing trends in the later stage. North America and South America experienced a similar local trend of PPM 2.5 E to Europe. The PPM 2.5 E trend in Africa generally increased during the study period. • First presentation of a Bayesian space-time hierarchy piecewise regression model detecting self-adaptively transitions. • Firstly applies a developed Bayesian space-time model in investigating the global population's exposure to PM 2.5. • Deeply analyses the spatiotemporal trends of the global continental PM 2.5 pollution removed natural dust. • Details the spatiotemporal trends of the global population's exposure to anthropogenic PM 2.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses comparable urban transport scenarios for China and India. The assessment methodology uses AIM/End-use model with a detailed characterization of technologies to analyze two scenarios for India and China till the year 2050. The first scenario assumes continuation and enhancement, in both countries, of policies under a typical business-as-usual dynamics, like constructing metros, implementing national fuel economy standards, promoting alternate fuel vehicles and implementing national air quality standards. The alternative, low carbon scenario assumes application, in both countries, of globally envisaged measures like fuel economy standards as well as imposition of carbon price derived from a global integrated assessment modeling exercise aiming to achieve global 2 °C temperature stabilization target. The modeling results for both countries show that decarbonizing transport sector shall need a wide array of measures including fuel economy, low carbon fuel mix including low carbon electricity supply. The comparison of China and India results provides important insights and lessons from their similarities and differences in the choice of urban transport options. India can benefit from China’s experiences as it lags China in urbanization and income. Modeling assessments show that both nations can contribute to, as well as benefit by aligning their transport plans with global climate stabilization regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, some high-skilled workers tend to escape from areas with severe air pollution. The phenomenon is more prominent in two emerging economies, China and India, and they are facing the brain drain caused by air pollution. This paper establishes a partial equilibrium model about the relationship of air pollution and the flow of technological innovative professionals (TIP), and for the first time, examines the effect of air pollution on the accumulation of technological innovative human capital based on cross-country data from China and India. We find that air pollution will reduce the stock of TIP in some regions. The estimation results show that a 1% increase in the PM 2.5 concentration of China's cities leads to an approximate 146 people decrease in the stock of TIP, while a 1% increase in the PM 10 concentration of Indian states leads to a 0.127% decrease in the stock of TIP. Further analysis of regional differences indicates that air pollution has a significant negative effect on the stock of TIP in economically developed areas of China, but has little effect on that in underdeveloped areas of China. Moreover, the results of robustness tests prove the stability of the findings in this study. This paper concludes with suggestions on how the country, local governments, enterprises, and research institutions could better deal with air pollution, attract and retain TIP, and effectively reduce brain drain. • Air pollution negatively affects the accumulation of innovative human capital. • Air pollution will reduce the stock of technological innovative professionals (TIP). • A 1% increase in PM 2.5 in China's cities decreases the stock of TIP by 146 people. • A 1% increase in PM 10 in Indian states reduces the stock of TIP by 0.127%. • TIP in economically developed areas are more sensitive to air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]