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Afforestation has been considered a critical nature-based solution to mitigate global warming. China has announced an ambitious afforestation plan covering an area of 73.78×104 km2 for the period 2020–2050. However, it is unclear which areas will be suitable for afforestation under future climate change. Here, we carried out a finer-resolution (25×25 km) dynamical downscaling of climate change for China using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model nested with the bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR model. Then, using the Holdridge life zone model forced by the WRF model output, we mapped the climatological suitability for forests in China. The results showed that the potential forestation domain (PFD) at present (1995–2014) approximated 500.75×104 km2 , and it would increase by about 3.49 % to 518.25×104 km2 in the period 2041–2060 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario (SSP2-4.5). Considering the expansion of the future PFD due to climate change, the afforestation area for each province was allocated to grid cells following the climatological suitability for forests. The new afforestation grid cells would be located around and to the east of the Hu Line (a geographical division stretching from Heihe to Tengchong). Due to afforestation, the land cover would be modified. The conversion from grasslands to deciduous broadleaf forests in northern China took up the most area, accounting for 40 % of the new afforestation area. The grid-cell-resolved afforestation dataset was consistent with the provincial afforestation plan and the future climatological forest suitability. The dataset would be valuable for investigating the impacts of future afforestation on various aspects, including the carbon budget, ecosystem services, water resources, and surface hydroclimate regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liu, W.; Feng, Q., and Zhang, F., 2017. Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of NPP in the Heihe River basin, Northwestern China, in a recent 10-year period calculated by CASA model. In: Zhi, Y. and Guido Aldana, P.A. (eds.), Sustainability of Water Resources and the Development of Coastal Environments: Select Proceedings from the 2016 International Conference on Water Resource and Environment (WRE2016). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 80, pp. 36-47. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. In this paper, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of NPP and related factors in the Heihe River basin were analyzed using the meteorological data of the Heihe River basin, SPOT/NDVI data, and other modified mathematical statistical methods. The results show that during the 1999-2010 period the total NPP in the Heihe River basin exhibited a fluctuating increasing trend, reaching 0.3×1012 gC/a. The multiyear variation value of NPP was 0.19~601.09 gC/m2/a in the whole basin, 3.5 gC/m2/a in the upper reaches, 2.06 gC/m2/a in the middle reaches, and 0.31 g/m2/a in the lower reaches. The NPP of vegetation in the Heihe River basin during January and February tended to slightly decrease, and on average varied between −0.01 and −0.02 gC/m2/a, while in June, July, August, and September greatly increased. The NPP of 10 vegetation types exhibited an increasing trend in 2010 compared to 1999, on average increased by 21.02 gC/m2/a. Among various vegetation types the increase in the NPP value of swamp vegetation was the largest, reaching 46.24 gC/m2/a followed by planted vegetation, steppe types, and meadow types; there values were 39.22 gC/m2/a, 32.49 gC/m2/a, and 27.63 gC/m2/a, respectively. The accumulated NPP in grassland ecosystem in the Heihe River basin was the largest, which is of important significance to the eco-environment of the basin. As viewed for the whole Heihe River basin, the yearly mean cumulative value of NPP of vegetation was negatively related to annual mean temperature and annual total solar radiation but positively related to annual total precipitation, suggesting that water is a limiting factor to the NPP in the Heihe River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of precipitation, slope, and swamp wetland ratio on water yield is not affected by spatial scale and watershed. • Identifying key areas for ecosystem services combined with multiple scenarios can help to take ecological restoration. • The water yield in the Baihe basin is more sensitive on climate change, while the water yield in the Heihe basin is more easily affected by land use changes. • The economic development and ecosystem services can both be ensured by wetland ecological restoration. Water supply is one of the core ecosystem services functions for wetland. Due to the important status of Zoige wetland, assessment of water supply in Zoige wetland is significant for ecological security all over the world. In this paper, Heihe and Baihe basins in Zoige wetland were taken as research objects, the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to spatially quantify water supply, with the aims of revealing the driving mechanism of water supply under different basins and spatial scale. We observed the spatial pattern change of water yield under baseline and eleven future scenarios and used the ANOVA of repeated measures and multiple linear regression model to explore the patterns and driving factors of water supply in Heihe and Baihe rivers basins. The research results were as follow. (1) The precipitation is main factor to improve water yield, but this intensity is different in different basins and spatial scale. Topography, climate, vegetation, and percentage of wetland conditions have important impacts on water yield services. However, the impacts of these conditions on water yield were various significantly across different watersheds and spatial scales (excluding factors such as precipitation, slope, and percentage of swamp wetland). (2) The spatial pattern of water yield main was affected by land use change and the amount of water yield main was affected by future climate change. (3) Water yield in the Baihe basin was more sensitive to climate change, while the Heihe basin is more sensitive to land use changes. Wetland ecological restoration strategies can effectively improve regional water yield, especially in the Heihe basin. (4) In all scenarios, the southeast regions of the study region were both the main hot spots of water yield. Wetland ecological restoration strategies have added hot spots in the north regions of the Baihe river basin, reduced hot spots in the middle-south regions of the Heihe basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021-50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981-2010), by 1.2°-1.7°C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4°-2.1°C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%-16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%-22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]