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Using the policy package pilot implemented in Hubei Province, China, in April 2020 as a natural experiment, we use the synthetic control (SC) and synthetic difference in differences (SDID) methods to estimate the impact of the Chinese government's support policy on the economic resilience and to analyze the mechanisms by which it impacts. This study finds that the policy package has contributed to the growth of economic resilience in the pilot provinces, with the policy package increasing the average economic resilience of the pilot provinces by 0.062 compared to their potential resilience. The validity and robustness of the above conclusions are objectively confirmed by multidimensional quantitative outcomes such as placebo tests, ranking tests, and replacements in calculating resilience. The mechanism analysis shows that the investment in real estate development, the stimulus for consumption, and the core industry development are virtual channels for the policy package to promote economic resilience growth in the pilot provinces. Moreover, traditional investment in transportation fixed assets plays a minor role. This paper quantitatively corroborates the academic idea that government governance capacity affects regional economic resilience (RER), and research can provide empirical support for regional economic recovery and policy support under a major crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of COVID-19 on travel demand, traffic congestion, and traffic safety are attracting heated attention. However, the influence of the pandemic on electric bike (e-bike) safety has not been investigated. This paper fills the research gap by analyzing how COVID-19 affects China's e-bike safety based on a province-level dataset containing e-bike safety metrics, socioeconomic information, and COVID-19 cases from 2017 to 2020. Multi-output regression models are adopted to investigate the overall impact of COVID-19 on e-bike safety in China. Clustering-based regression models are used to examine the heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 and the other explanatory variables in different provinces/municipalities. This paper confirms the high relevance between COVID-19 and the e-bike safety condition in China. The number of COVID-19 cases has a significant negative effect on the number of e-bike fatalities/injuries at the country level. Moreover, two clusters of provinces/municipalities are identified: one (cluster 1) with lower and the other (cluster 2 that includes Hubei province) higher number of e-bike fatalities/injuries. In the clustering-based regressions, the absolute coefficients of the COVID-19 feature for cluster 2 are much larger than those for cluster 1, indicating that the pandemic could significantly reduce e-bike safety issues in provinces with more e-bike fatalities/injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little has been done to examine socioeconomic differences in the trajectory of psychological well-being during a disaster. This paper investigates educational differences in the changes in psychological well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic and explores the mechanisms of the differences. The data were obtained from a unique two-wave panel survey conducted during the peak and waning phases of the pandemic in Hubei province, the epicenter of the pandemic in China. At the peak of the pandemic, individuals with different levels of education reported high and similar levels of psychological distress. As the pandemic subsided, the psychological well-being of people of all educational levels rebounded, but the recovery was greater and faster for those with tertiary education. Mediation analysis shows that neighborhood social support and evaluation of the performance of grassroots government partially explained the advantage of the more highly educated. This study reveals how social differentiation is translated into health disparities when a disaster strikes. It may also inform public policy by identifying segments of the population at heightened risk of psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Covid-19 pandemic started in Wuhan in December 2019 and then spread to the rest of China and the world. This paper examines the relationship between inter-provincial migration and the diffusion of covid-19 outbreak in Mainland China from 26 January to 6 March 2020. Statistical analysis shows that the migrants who moved into Hubei in 2010–2015 are a good indicator of the population flow from Hubei to other provinces that caused the spread of covid-19 in early 2020. Many migrants traveled back to hometown before the traffic ban of Wuhan city for the spring holiday. Thus, the migration flow from a province to Hubei in the period 2010–2015 had the highest correlation coefficient with the number of covid-19 cases in four selected dates. The population flow based on the big data from the Baidu map on 20 January 2020 was also highly correlated with the number of cases, but not as good as the above migration data. The finding demonstrates the role of established migrant networks in the spread of covid-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a varying coefficient Susceptible-Infected-Removal (vSIR) model that allows changing infection and removal rates for the latest corona virus (COVID-19) outbreak in China. The vSIR model together with proposed estimation procedures allow one to track the reproductivity of the COVID-19 through time and to assess the effectiveness of the control measures implemented since Jan 23 2020 when the city of Wuhan was lockdown followed by an extremely high level of self-isolation in the population. Our study finds that the reproductivity of COVID-19 had been significantly slowed down in the three weeks from January 27th to February 17th with 96.3% and 95.1% reductions in the effective reproduction numbers R among the 30 provinces and 15 Hubei cities, respectively. Predictions to the ending times and the total numbers of infected are made under three scenarios of the removal rates. The paper provides a timely model and associated estimation and prediction methods which may be applied in other countries to track, assess and predict the epidemic of the COVID-19 or other infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2019, a new virus (initially called 'Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV' and later renamed to SARS-CoV-2) causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (coronavirus disease COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and rapidly spread to other parts of China and other countries around the world, despite China's massive efforts to contain the disease within Hubei. As with the original SARS-CoV epidemic of 2002/2003 and with seasonal influenza, geographic information systems and methods, including, among other application possibilities, online real-or near-real-time mapping of disease cases and of social media reactions to disease spread, predictive risk mapping using population travel data, and tracing and mapping super-spreader trajectories and contacts across space and time, are proving indispensable for timely and effective epidemic monitoring and response. This paper offers pointers to, and describes, a range of practical online/mobile GIS and mapping dashboards and applications for tracking the 2019/2020 coronavirus epidemic and associated events as they unfold around the world. Some of these dashboards and applications are receiving data updates in near-real-time (at the time of writing), and one of them is meant for individual users (in China) to check if the app user has had any close contact with a person confirmed or suspected to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the recent past. We also discuss additional ways GIS can support the fight against infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, has progressed to a pandemic associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Little is known about the healthcare workers who died fighting the disease in China. This paper analyzed the data of 78 Chinese healthcare workers who died in the fight against COVID-19 between 23 January and 2 June, 2020, and revealed the following characteristics. First, compared to the number of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19, more healthcare workers died from pre-existing disease attack induced by excessive fatigue or died from accidents. Second, the median age of the healthcare workers who died directly from COVID-19 was younger than that of the Wuhan non- healthcare workers who died of COVID 19. Third, although more women than men were involved in fighting the pandemic, more men died. Fourth, more healthcare workers died in Hubei than in other provinces. Fifth, most of the healthcare workers who died directly from COVID-19 were non-professionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A better understanding of the carbon market can guide further reforms to improve its functionality. Market efficiency is a key indicator to uncover its current performance. Previous studies have revealed passed carbon market efficiency; however, given the dynamics of the market, it is worthy to track the up-to-date status. This paper, specifically, studies the Hubei pilot carbon market, which is quite interesting, considering its market scale, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic context. Wild bootstrapping Variance Ratio test is implemented to detect the market efficiency with the most recent and abundant data. Results show that the market efficiency in the period of 2014–2020 is around 0.3951, less than 1, suggesting a weak form of efficiency. Observing the sub-sample periods, the efficiency shows to be quite volatile: it climbes from 0.3621 to 0.4027 and finally drops to 0.3985. Furthermore, the market efficiency soares after the COVID-19, which echoes the smooth local reopening thanks to supporting policies. To some extent, this study enlarged the analysis of COVID-19 impact on the industrial sector and for this reason it provides important reference for further research. The unique contribution of this paper is to provide the more updated evidence on the efficiency of China's pilot carbon market, as well as proofs of soaring market efficiency, after the pandemic. • Market efficiency analysis is performed. • Wild bootstrapping Variance Ratio test is implemented. • Market efficiency in the period of 2014–2020 is around 0.3951 • The efficiency shows to be quite volatile. • Market efficiency soars after the COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the processes and mechanisms of the spatial spread of epidemics is essential for making reasonable judgments on the development trends of epidemics and for adopting effective containment measures. Using multi-agent network technology and big data on population migration, this paper constructed a city-based epidemic and mobility model (CEMM) to stimulate the spatiotemporal of COVID-19. Compared with traditional models, this model is characterized by an urban network perspective and emphasizes the important role of intercity population mobility and high-speed transportation networks. The results show that the model could simulate the inter-city spread of COVID-19 at the early stage in China with high precision. Through scenario simulation, the paper quantitatively evaluated the effect of control measures "city lockdown" and "decreasing population mobility" on containing the spatial spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. According to the simulation, the total number of infectious cases in China would have climbed to 138,824 on February 2020, or 4.46 times the real number, if neither of the measures had been implemented. Overall, the containment effect of the lockdown of cities in Hubei was greater than that of decreasing intercity population mobility, and the effect of city lockdowns was more sensitive to timing relative to decreasing population mobility. • A city-based epidemic and mobility model is proposed for simulating the spatial spread of an epidemic between cities. • The effect of "city lockdowns" and "decreasing population mobility" measures were evaluated under ten scenarios. • The effect of decreasing returns to scale and distance decay of population mobility on the epidemic spread were found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A Maximum-Entropy Ecological Niche Model is used to estimate a global-scale probability distribution of COVID-19 high infection rate. • Environmental parameters (surface air temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and humanrelated parameters (CO 2 emission and population density) are used in the model. • The model is trained only with data of Italian provinces with high infection rate, but predicts known actual infection focuses, e.g. the Hubei province in China. • A risk index is proposed, which correctly classifies most World countries, which have reported high COVID-19 spread rate, as zones with high-risk of infection rate increase. • The methodology follows an Open-science approach where the model is published as a standardized Web service that maximises re-usability on new data and new diseases, and guarantees the transparency of the approach and the results. COVID-19 pandemic is a global threat to human health and economy that requires urgent prevention and monitoring strategies. Several models are under study to control the disease spread and infection rate and to detect possible factors that might favour them, with a focus on understanding the correlation between the disease and specific geophysical parameters. However, the pandemic does not present evident environmental hindrances in the infected countries. Nevertheless, a lower rate of infections has been observed in some countries, which might be related to particular population and climatic conditions. In this paper, infection rate of COVID-19 is modelled globally at a 0.5∘ resolution, using a Maximum Entropy-based Ecological Niche Model that identifies geographical areas potentially subject to a high infection rate. The model identifies locations that could favour infection rate due to their particular geophysical (surface air temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and human-related characteristics (CO 2 and population density). It was trained by facilitating data from Italian provinces that have reported a high infection rate and subsequently tested using datasets from World countries' reports. Based on this model, a risk index was calculated to identify the potential World countries and regions that have a high risk of disease increment. The distribution outputs foresee a high infection rate in many locations where real-world disease outbreaks have occurred, e.g. the Hubei province in China, and reports a high risk of disease increment in most World countries which have reported significant outbreaks (e.g. Western U.S.A.). Overall, the results suggest that a complex combination of the selected parameters might be of integral importance to understand the propagation of COVID-19 among human populations, particularly in Europe. The model and the data were distributed through Open-science Web services to maximise opportunities for re-usability regarding new data and new diseases, and also to enhance the transparency of the approach and results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]