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We revisit the generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution and its nested models. These include widely used parametric choices like the multivariate normal, skew‐t$$ t $$, Laplace, and several others. We also introduce the multiple‐choice LASSO, a novel penalized method for choosing among alternative constraints on the same parameter. A hierarchical multiple‐choice Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized likelihood is optimized to perform simultaneous model selection and inference within the GH family. We illustrate our approach through a simulation study and a real data example. The methodology proposed in this paper has been implemented in R functions which are available as supplementary material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article shows how multivariate elliptically contoured (EC) distributions, parameterized according to the mean vector and covariance matrix, can be built from univariate standard symmetric distributions. The obtained distributions are referred to as moment-parameterized EC (MEC) herein. As a further novelty, the article shows how to polynomially reshape MEC distributions and obtain distributions, called leptokurtic MEC (LMEC), having probability density functions characterized by a further parameter expressing their excess kurtosis with respect to the parent MEC distributions. Two estimation methods are discussed: the method of moments and the maximum likelihood. For illustrative purposes, normal, Laplace, and logistic univariate densities are considered to build MEC and LMEC models. An application to financial returns of a set of European stock indexes is finally presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many statistical problems involve the estimation of a d × d orthogonal matrix Q . Such an estimation is often challenging due to the orthonormality constraints on Q . To cope with this problem, we use the well-known PLU decomposition, which factorizes any invertible d × d matrix as the product of a d × d permutation matrix P , a d × d unit lower triangular matrix L , and a d × d upper triangular matrix U . Thanks to the QR decomposition, we find the formulation of U when the PLU decomposition is applied to Q . We call the result as PLR decomposition; it produces a one-to-one correspondence between Q and the d d - 1 / 2 entries below the diagonal of L , which are advantageously unconstrained real values. Thus, once the decomposition is applied, regardless of the objective function under consideration, we can use any classical unconstrained optimization method to find the minimum (or maximum) of the objective function with respect to L . For illustrative purposes, we apply the PLR decomposition in common principle components analysis (CPCA) for the maximum likelihood estimation of the common orthogonal matrix when a multivariate leptokurtic-normal distribution is assumed in each group. Compared to the commonly used normal distribution, the leptokurtic-normal has an additional parameter governing the excess kurtosis; this makes the estimation of Q in CPCA more robust against mild outliers. The usefulness of the PLR decomposition in leptokurtic-normal CPCA is illustrated by two biometric data analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research objective of this paper is to handle situations where the empirical distribution of multivariate real-valued data is elliptical and with heavy tails. Many statistical models already exist that accommodate these peculiarities. This paper enriches this branch of literature by introducing the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient continuous uniform as mixing distribution. Moreover, it has a closed-form for the probability density function characterized by only one additional 'inflation' parameter, with respect to the nested MN, governing the tail-weight. The moment generating function, and the first four moments, are also derived; interestingly, the latter always exist and the excess kurtosis can assume any positive value. The method of moments and maximum likelihood (ML) are considered for estimation. As concerns the latter, a direct approach, as well as a variant of the EM algorithm (namely, the ECME algorithm), are illustrated. Furthermore, a way to approximate covariance matrix of the ML estimator is suggested and the existence of the ML estimates is evaluated. Since the inflation parameter is estimated from the data, robust estimates of the mean vector of the nested MN distribution are automatically obtained by down-weighting. Simulations are performed to compare the estimation methods/algorithms, to investigate the ability of AIC and BIC to select among a set of candidate elliptical models, and to evaluate the robustness of these candidate methods when data are skewed. The findings are the following: ML is better than MM, direct ML is suggested for low dimensions, while the ECME algorithm is to be preferred when the number of variables is higher, AIC and BIC work comparably in selecting the true underlying model, and the MTIN outperforms the competing models in terms of robustness toward skew data. For illustrative purposes, the MTIN distribution is finally fitted to multivariate financial data and compared with other well-established multivariate elliptical distributions. The analysis shows how the proposed model represents a valid alternative to the considered competitors in terms of AIC and BIC, but also in reproducing the higher empirical kurtosis which is common in the financial context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce multivariate models for the analysis of stock market returns. Our models are developed under hidden Markov and semi-Markov settings to describe the temporal evolution of returns, whereas the marginal distribution of returns is described by a mixture of multivariate leptokurtic-normal (LN) distributions. Compared to the normal distribution, the LN has an additional parameter governing excess kurtosis and this allows us a better fit to both the distributional and dynamic properties of daily returns. We outline an expectation maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation which exploits recursions developed within the hidden semi-Markov literature. As an illustration, we provide an example based on the analysis of a bivariate time series of stock market returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes the elliptical multivariate leptokurtic-normal (MLN) distribution to fit data with excess kurtosis. The MLN distribution is a multivariate Gram-Charlier expansion of the multivariate normal (MN) distribution and has a closed-form representation characterized by one additional parameter denoting the excess kurtosis. It is obtained from the elliptical representation of the MN distribution, by reshaping its generating variate with the associated orthogonal polynomials. The strength of this approach for obtaining the MLN distribution lies in its general applicability as it can be applied to any multivariate elliptical law to get a suitable distribution to fit data. Maximum likelihood is discussed as a parameter estimation technique for the MLN distribution. Mixtures of MLN distributions are also proposed for robust model-based clustering. An EM algorithm is presented to obtain estimates of the mixture parameters. Benchmark real data are used to show the usefulness of mixtures of MLN distributions. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 45: 95-119; 2017 © 2016 Statistical Society of Canada [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]