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• Households change their heating patterns when they switch to a heat pump. • Typically, a setback temperature 2–5 °C lower than the desired thermostat setting. • We calculate the increase in heat demand with varied parameters. • The increase in heat demand is determined by heat loss and thermal mass. • This would be a useful metric for 'heat pump readiness'. Heating with air source heat pumps is an important step in the transition to Net Zero Carbon for many households. When predicting the resulting energy consumption it is frequently assumed that heating demand is unchanged from before the switch from gas heating. However, heating patterns usually change, with a net increase in heating demand to achieve the same level of thermal comfort. This paper discusses the change in pattern and uses modelling to determine the resulting increase in energy demand. It shows that the increase can be predicted with information about dwelling heat loss and thermal mass as well as weather and the pre and post switch heating pattern. The increase can be 20% or more for homes with high heat loss. It proposes that the metric for heating demand increase would be a useful measure of heat pump readiness, and that the parameters required to assess this should be provided on energy performance certificates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential demand response using low carbon technologies can potentially offer energy flexibility to the electricity network along with integration of renewable generation. This paper seeks to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of residential demand response trials on a low voltage feeder of a secondary substation in Barnsley (UK). The study used a sample of 14 well-insulated dwellings equipped with home batteries, heat pumps and solar photovoltaic systems coordinated using automated control. Statistical analysis was undertaken using time-series monitoring data obtained at the individual dwelling level, dwelling sample and at the feeder level of the local low voltage network. Resident experience of the trials was assessed through qualitative data obtained from household telephone surveys. Over three weeks of trials, daily demand response interventions of 2 h duration were applied to the sample of 14 dwellings. For evening peak times, the mean reduction in grid electricity import was found to be 1.3 kWh (67%) per dwelling for turn-down interventions which aimed to minimise import. For turn-up interventions between 1 and 3 pm, the mean increase in grid electricity import was found to be 5.8 kWh (645%) per dwelling. The effect of interventions was measured at the low voltage network level for two single-phase feeders, where penetration of trial homes was approximately one-third. A reduction in mean real power up to 21% was observed for turn-down interventions as well as an increase in real mean power up to 307% for turn-up interventions. In general, the trials had little effect on residents in terms of thermal comfort, hot water availability, noise disturbance or disruption to routines, and where such effects were noticed, they were broadly acceptable. The widespread implementation of residential demand response schemes will require increased roll-out of time-of-use tariffs, enhanced resident support and extensive monitoring of low voltage feeders in electricity substations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]