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China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identify three key factors impacting carbon neutrality in rMSW management. • Perform LCA comparison of environmental impacts for different treatment technologies. • Comprehensive comparison of rMSW characteristics in China, Germany, Japan, and the USA. • Identify four major challenges hindering low carbon rMSW management in China. • Present a three-stage road-map for "low-, zero-, and negative-carbon" management models. Solid waste management is rapidly developing and undergoing technological transformation in China. However, Waste Classification (WC) methods and the corresponding end-of-pipe technologies have not been fully harmonized, resulting in large volume and complex residual municipal solid waste (rMSW) that poses challenges for waste management. To achieve carbon neutrality in solid waste treatment, a well-designed rMSW management system is necessary. In this paper, we identified the common factors influencing the carbon emissions in solid waste management. Then we presented a comprehensive assessment of four emerging low-carbon rMSW technologies, including their advantages, disadvantages, project examples, and environmental impacts. Finally, with reference to the experiences of Germany, Japan, and the United States, and based on the history and current status of rMSW management in China, we summarized the challenges faced by China and proposed a low-carbon development pathway. This paper aims to offer support for the early achievement of carbon neutrality in solid waste management in China. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of global climate change has led to a widespread consensus on carbon reduction, with the power industry being the principal contributor to carbon emissions necessitating an inevitable transition of its energy structure. Concomitantly, the escalating frequency of natural disasters caused by extreme weather presents formidable challenges to both secure power supply and the low-carbon transition of the power system. To fulfill the developmental requirements of a low-carbon power system and address the carbon emission risks imposed by natural disasters, this paper proposes a bi-level model for generation expansion planning (GEP) that incorporates constraints on the carbon emission trajectory and the influence of natural disasters. The planning-level model optimizes investment costs of various generation technologies and energy storage (ES), as well as the overall operational expenses over the planning period, with an objective to minimize them. It incorporates carbon emission trajectory constraints and policy constraints, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) penetration rates, in order to optimize the planning installed capacity of power sources. The operational-level model aims to minimize typical daily operating costs while also simulating power unit outputs in routine and disaster scenarios. A case study is conducted in a disaster-prone province in southern China to analyze the power generation expansion planning and the trajectory of carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under different scenarios. The simulation results show that compared to thermal power, the planning scheme mainly focused on RE with ES is better suited to achieve the goal of a low-carbon transition of the power grid. Moreover, after considering natural disasters, the cost and carbon emissions of power system planning are higher, and the risk of carbon emissions increases with the severity of disasters. • A multi-time scale bi-level low-carbon GEP model is proposed. • Natural disaster scenarios and low-carbon policy constraints are considered in the GEP model. • Carbon emission trajectory of the planned power system is estimated and introduced as a constraint into the GEP model. • Evaluation indicators that comprehensively consider low-carbon performance and economic feasibility are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has set an ambitious national determined contributions target to peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 and aims to be carbon neutral by 2060. One of China's top energy consumers and CO 2 contributors, the steel industry accounts for 13% of the country's total consumption and 15% of CO 2 emissions. In response to the present global warming trend, there is an urgent need to cut energy consumption and CO 2 emissions to promote low-carbon growth. This paper attempts to provide a detailed analysis of the steel industry's CO 2 emission reduction path to carbon neutrality. Further efforts in terms of industrial structure, material efficiency, energy efficiency, and low- or zero-carbon technologies are required to achieve a low-carbon transition. Given that decarbonization is a significant priority in the steel industry in many countries, this study focuses on the goals and technological paths of low-carbon emissions projects to optimize existing technology priorities and propose development directions. Deep decarbonization is also projected to be achieved by combining CCUS and hydrogen metallurgy technologies. The steel industry requires collaborative efforts to standardize CO 2 emission accounting methodologies and establish a carbon trading system to strengthen carbon emission management. • The steel industry is one of the key contributors to carbon neutrality which needs to accelerate decarbonization. • Reducing energy consumption and CO 2 emissions to keep up with the current global warming trend are reviewed. • This paper selects low-carbon emission projects to optimize current technology priorities and provide development directions. • Policy recommendations and next steps for low-carbon transition are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission trading, a market-incentive environmental regulation, plays a critical role in leading China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To improve the national carbon emission trading in China, we analyze the effects of the policy in pilot provinces and pilot A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2016. Particularly, to explore the pilot policy's environmental and financial impacts, this paper applies a difference-in-difference method. After the robustness check, the results confirm the carbon emission trading pilot's significantly positive impact at both firm- and province-level regarding carbon emission reduction. Meanwhile, corporate innovation seems to partially mediate the relationship between the policy and corporate carbon emission reduction. Plus, the policy promotes firms' market-based financial performance but such impact on accounting-based financial performance is insignificant. Ultimately, the operational mechanism of the policy is proved to be effective. In this paper, industry- and firm-level carbon emissions databases are established via environmental extended input-output table, which fill the research gap of China's firm-level carbon emissions. To ensure the reliability of results, the list of covered firms is sorted out manually in accordance with the disclosed data of seven carbon trading markets. Our results are meaningful for avoid productivity reduction and mechanism re-design in the context of the national carbon emission trading launched in 2021. Specifically, encouraging firms to further improve their productivity and competitiveness by innovation could eventually achieve a win-win situation between economic performance and environmental merits in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting low-carbon development in the iron and steel industry (ISI) is essential for China to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. This paper separately adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique and the Mean Impact Value (MIV) method to analyze the impact of driving factors on the CO 2 emissions of ISI in the historical and future dimensions. Furthermore, this paper establishes the extreme learning machine model optimized by the bat algorithm (BA-BP) to explore the carbon emission reduction pathways of ISI in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the low-speed, medium-speed and high-speed development scenarios considering the constraints of carbon neutrality targets. The results reveal that: (1) Production capacity and energy efficiency are important drivers of CO 2 emissions in ISI; (2) The emission reduction situation is not optimistic under the BAU scenario, and it is difficult to accomplish the carbon neutrality goals by 2060; (3) Under the most ideal emission reduction pathway (corresponding to the high-speed development scenario), ISI will reach its peak in 2022 with the peak value of 2143.42 MtCO 2. Compared to the peak year, the CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 654.69 MtCO 2 and 1558.61 MtCO 2 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Moreover, the achievement of short-term and long-term emission reduction targets depends on production capacity decline and technological progress, respectively. The optimal emission reduction pathway provides a reference for ISI to formulate periodic emission reduction targets. • The improved extreme learning machine is employed to predict the carbon emissions. • The emission reduction pathways are explored under the carbon neutrality target. • Controlling production capacity is a crucial reduction strategy. • The energy rebound effect is supposed to be weakened. • The application of advanced technologies will greatly promote emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon trading market is an effective way to mitigate the threat of climate warming. In the context of carbon neutrality, what is the carbon emission trading scheme's carbon reduction effect? This paper answers the question by examining the carbon efficiency of China's iron and steel industry. This study first constructs CO 2 emission efficiency by employing the data envelopment approach. It then uses the synthetic control method to identify the impact of the carbon emission trading scheme on the CO 2 efficiency of the iron and steel industry. The results show that CO 2 emission efficiency in pilot provinces increased at a 5% significance level compared with the counterfactual scenario. The carbon trading market plays a vital role in industrial CO 2 emission efficiency improvement in Guangdong, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hubei, and Chongqing. From a dynamic perspective, the policy effect of enhancing CO 2 efficiency becomes more prominent over time. Moreover, the effectiveness degree of the carbon emission trading scheme varies across pilot provinces, caused of regional policy differences. Based on the findings, we put forward targeted suggestions for improving the newly-established national carbon trading market. • The DEA model and the synthetic control method are employed in the study. • Impact of carbon market on CO 2 efficiency of iron and steel industry is verified. • The heterogeneity of carbon market effects is explored from regional perspective. • Carbon market significantly promotes industrial CO 2 efficiency in pilot provinces. • China should develop the national carbon market to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper analyzes China's challenges toward carbon neutrality (CN) by 2060. • Currently, up to 85% of China's energy consumption relies on fossil fuels. • China's zero-carbon technologies and economy are not yet sufficient for CN. • Thus, we propose a three-stage/four-step strategy for China to achieve CN. • This paper also presents seven suggestions to foster China's green transition. In response to climate change, the Chinese government has set a clear goal to reach its carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, endeavoring to gradually realize net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. This paper explores the concept of carbon neutrality and makes a comparative analysis of the gap between China, the European Union, and the United States vis-à-vis carbon neutrality based on international data. The main challenges China faces in its progress toward carbon neutrality are the following: first, China's energy consumption and CO 2 emissions continue to increase, while its carbon peak has not yet been reached; second, carbon emission reduction in China is an arduous process, as the transition period allowed for the country to transition from its carbon peak to carbon neutrality is shorter than that of developed countries; third, China remains reliant on high-carbon fossil energy, with high energy consumption and low energy utilization efficiency; fourth, China's low level of economic development, compared with those of the EU, the US, or other developed countries, makes it relatively weak to withstand economic risks; and fifth, China's low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies are not mature. Therefore, this paper posits a three-stage/four-step strategy as well as seven specific suggestions that could benefit China's progress toward carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Delta region is one of the key areas of energy transition for China's carbon neutrality. The pathways to carbon neutrality are diverse in the regional level due to the different conditions on the energy supply and demand side. How to construct comprehensive assessment index system and evaluate regional pathways to carbon neutrality is an urgent problem to be solved. To fill this gap, this paper evaluates the carbon neutrality pathways of supply-side and demand-side coordination in the Yangtze River Delta region using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios): Business as usual, energy intensity decrease, energy structure reform, power supply technology innovation and policies mix. The simulation results indicate that: (1) 22 of the 64 sub-scenarios can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) In energy intensity decrease scenario, an annual 6% reduction in energy intensity could achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. (3) The policies mix scenario can lead to 21 sub-scenarios with pathways to achieve carbon neutrality when the average annual energy intensity decreases by 4% or more. Additionally, the end-use sectors electrification level should reach 64.19% at least by 2060. (4) There can be 14 sub-scenarios to achieve zero carbon emissions in the power plant sector, but annual energy intensity should be reduced by at least 4%. Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis, the article evaluated the 22 sub-scenarios with the index of regional pathways to carbon neutrality. The result shows that the mixed policies of energy intensity reduction, energy structure reformation and power technology innovation can promote the coordination of supply-side and demand-side. This study can provide reference for policymakers to formulate effective policies to realize carbon neutrality. • The coordination of energy supply and energy demand is assessed. • A model with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios) is developed for carbon neutrality. • Energy intensity drops by 4% or more can lead to multiple carbon neutral pathways. • A comprehensive assessment index of regional carbon neutral pathways is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Municipalities play a leading role in tackling global climate change. However, despite the global efforts to push for carbon neutrality, the pathway is not yet clear. Using the municipality of Bengbu as a case, this paper explores pathways for achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in order to reach a CO 2 emission peak before 2030 in four Scenarios and develops a low emission framework taking into consideration the local economy, population, renewable resources, as well as the transport and energy sectors based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. Meanwhile, the energy demand, the structure of the electric power generation, the CO 2 emission, and the total cost in different Scenarios are simulated respectively. The result of this study provides insight on options for energy transformation for the period of 2020–2060. The results show that the industrial sector is the largest energy consumer. The growth rate of energy demand in the primary industry and industrial sector shows downward trends. The increasement of industrial electrification rate and coal generation phasing out are crucial to CO 2 emission reduction. The large-scale deployment of renewable energy and the deployment of thermal power generation with CCUS are important for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. Last but not the least, recommendations on energy planning for municipals to realize carbon emission peak and achieve carbon neutrality are provided. • Pathways for achieving carbon reduction targets of the municipality based on the LEAP model are explored. • The coal generation phasing out is prerequisite to CO 2 emission reduction. • The large-scale deployment of renewable energy is crucial for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. • The deployment of thermal power with CCUS is necessary for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. • Restructuring of industrial energy consumption and increasing the electrification rate are significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate is warming up and climate disasters occur more frequently, China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets are gaining attention, with provinces starting to set carbon peak targets and constantly exploring low carbon economic development opportunities. However, the existing evaluation index system mainly focuses on low carbon cities and green cities, and there is no evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical research and draws on domestic and international research results to construct the first index system for evaluating China's provincial carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The evaluation index system includes 18 indicators from three dimensions: climate ambition, low carbon status, and emissions trends. Using this index system, we calculated the carbon peak and carbon neutrality indices of 30 Chinese provinces. Further, the 30 provinces were classified into six categories, and corresponding policy recommendations for achieving the "Dual carbon" targets were put forward. The evaluation index system constructed in this paper can provide a reference for future carbon peak and carbon neutrality assessments. By disclosing the integrated index of each province, we hope to effectively curb the increasing local carbon emissions; avert inaction in areas with good natural endowments; and motivate the advancement of the latter, to boost the implementation of the "Dual carbon" targets coherently for the whole country. [Display omitted] • An integrated evaluation system on China's Provincial "Dual carbon" was proposed. • 30 provinces in mainland China were ranked based on the integrated index. • 6 groups were classified to show provincial differences on dual carbon performance. • Policy recommendations to fulfill China's climate commitment were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide the most up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's cement industry. • We construct the G-LEAP model to project the CO 2 emissions of China's cement industry. • The CO 2 emissions could be reduced maximum by 70 percent in 2060, while the remainder will need to come from technological innovation and new growth horizons. This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO 2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO 2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO 2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The influencing factors of carbon prices in China's carbon market are analysed. • The influencing factors and historical data are combined to predict the carbon price. • The EEMD-BP-ELM model and the CHINAGEM-E model are constructed and combined. Carbon price is one of the core indicators of the carbon market. Making accurate predictions of carbon prices based on insight into the volatility characteristics of the carbon market will not only provide a scientific basis for investors and regulators to make decisions and greatly promote emission reduction, but also effectively promote the healthy development of the carbon financial market. Based on the historical carbon price data of the national carbon market, this paper constructs the EEMD-BP-ELM model to predict the high and low frequency components of China's future carbon price. On this basis, according to China's goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, the CHINAGEM-E model is used to predict the trend component of the carbon price under the baseline and the 2060 carbon neutral scenarios. Finally, the trend component is combined with the high and low frequency components to obtain the price range from 2022 to 2060. We find that under the baseline scenario, China's carbon price range in 2060 is [343, 785] CNY/tCO2, while under the 2060 carbon neutral scenario, this price range is [1543, 3531] CNY/tCO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Constructing a new welfare function considering economy, equity and ecology. • Optimizing carbon emission pathways from multiple perspectives. • Focusing on the emission pathways in China achieving the ambitious targets. With the increasing climate warming, reducing carbon emissions has gradually become a consensus around the world. However, the process of carbon emission reduction will inevitably lead to the transformation of economic structure, industrial structure and energy structure, which will bring huge changes in economic output, employment and other aspects, thus affecting the overall social welfare and equity. Therefore, it is particularly important for each country to determine a scientific and effective carbon emission pathway which take into account both social development and climate targets. As the largest carbon emitter, China has put forward the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this regard, the corresponding carbon emission reduction scenarios are designed according to the new situation of China's emission reduction in this paper, firstly. Furthermore, under the premise of maximizing social welfare, an optimization model which integrating economic growth-equity-environment is developed to determine China's emission pathways under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Besides quantitatively showing the future total amount and peak value of carbon emissions under different scenarios, the results can also identify its evolution pathway over time. Therein, the peak under most scenarios will concentrate in 2025–2030, which is about 10.7 to 11.8 billion tons. With the increasingly stringent constraints on carbon emission reduction, the cost of emission reduction will increase correspondingly, but the overall social welfare will increase slightly. Finally, our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon emission reduction and enlightenments on policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide an up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's iron and steel sector. • Conventional technology is estimated to reduce emissions by only 54%. • Innovative technological retrofitting is the key to net-zero emission pathway. As a hard-to-abate sector, the iron and steel industry is responsible for 22% of China's total carbon emissions and therefore plays a crucial role in achieving China's carbon peaking and neutrality target. Nearly 90% of China's iron and steel output is produced with coal-based blast furnaces, which results in high carbon emission intensity. To peak China's carbon emissions and achieve the carbon neutrality target, it is essential to accelerate the application of breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based steel-making. This paper estimates the future CO 2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry in pathways that consider the influence of different technology portfolios, technology maturity, decarbonization of power systems, and future steel production output. The results show that using currently available technology, China's iron and steel industry can reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 50%. However, it cannot achieve the neutrality target without using innovative technologies. By combining conventional strategies with net-zero emission technologies such as CCS and hydrogen metallurgy, approximately 80–90% emission reduction can be achieved, thus leading to a carbon neutrality pathway, which can meet the 1.5°C targets of the carbon budget limit either. In the future, carbon emissions' reduction potential will be influenced by the decarbonization of power systems and the diffusion rate of innovative technologies. To achieve carbon neutrality, it is essential to act sooner and faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dual-carbon target (i.e., carbon peak and carbon neutrality) has been a critical external factor for the usage of China's fossil energy in the future. As the lowest-carbon fossil energy source, the uncertainty of China's natural gas usage is much higher than that of coal and oil. Thus, a detailed analysis of China's future natural gas consumption (NGC) under the dual-carbon target has attracted great attention from academia. This paper constructs a system dynamics-based forecasting model for China's NGC, and predicts the trends of China's primary energy demand, natural gas demand, and carbon emissions under four scenarios of high-, medium-, low-, and business-as-usual transitions. The low transition scenario, which is in line with the actual situation of China, shows that: (1) primary energy consumption peaks around 2040 at approximately 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent. (2) Carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 at approximately 10.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, and "net zero" carbon emissions will be achieved in 2057 and 2059 under high and low carbon sinks, respectively. (3) NGC is expected to peak in 2038 at approximately 630 billion cubic meters. (4) Industrial gas is expected to peak around 2035 at approximately 450 billion cubic meters. • We predict medium- and long-term natural gas consumption in China. • We construct a system dynamics model considering the bind of dual-carbon target. • We apply scenario analysis to quantify the intensity of low-carbon transition. • We get results of prediction the peak natural gas consumption in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China must tackle CO 2 emission from its power sector which contributes to 40% (11.8 Gt in 2019) of its total CO 2 emission. Previous studies have shown that China has enough subsurface CO 2 storage capacity (3,145 Gt) to store 200–300 years of CO 2 emission nationwide or 600–700 years of CO 2 emission from the power sector. This paper evaluates the economic benefits of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to decarbonize China's coal-fired power plants and conducts a techno-economic analysis of four scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality in China's power sector by 2050. A model of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS (CP-CCS) is used for comparing the economic competitiveness of CP-CCS with those of nuclear (NP), hydro (HP), wind (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Results show that the LCOE of CP-CCS with a CO 2 transportation distance of 100 km or less and coal price below 455 CNY/t (70.54 USD/t with the exchange rate set at 1 USD = 6.45 CNY) is less than those of NP, WP and solar PV especially for a high discount rate. The cost of coal and CO 2 transportation are the two greatest contributors to the LCOE of CP-CCS. In addition, LCOE is sensitive to operation time of the CP-CCS. Retrofitting an existing coal-fired power plant with CCS reduces the LCOE by 10–18% compared to a newly built CP-CCS. Furthermore, a scenario of gradual increase (average annual growth rate of 0.93%) in electricity generation by CP-CCS has a lower total cost than one where coal-fired power plants are aggressively replaced by wind and solar PV power plants. This is especially true if the coal price is low and CO 2 transportation distance is short. The result is savings of trillions of CNY in costs for the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• CCUS retrofitting China's power plants potentially reduce 5.5–38.5 gt CO 2 by 2060. • The impact of CCUS deployment time and transport distance is quantified. • Great opportunities for CCUS clusters in five major basins are suggested. • Priority provinces with low-cost opportunities for CO 2 transportation are identified. China's carbon neutrality target before 2060 requires a significant CO 2 emissions reduction for the power industry. The application of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology in coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) can significantly reduce the CO 2 emissions while avoiding stranded assets loss; however, its contribution to carbon neutrality remains unclear. Based on a CCUS source-sink matching analysis, this paper investigates the role of CO 2 emissions reduction of existing CFPPs in realizing China's carbon neutrality. This research yielded several important findings. (1) During 2020–2060, China's existing 584 CFPPs (670 GW) will totally lock in associated CO 2 emissions of 60.87 Gt CO 2 , and have the CCUS retrofitting potential of 136–560 GW, contributing to the cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction of 5.46–38.48 Gt depending on different deployment time (2025, 2030, and 2035) and maximum transport distance (100 km, 250 km, and 800 km); (2) The best window for retrofitting China's existing CFPPs is quite short and will soon be closed, because the cumulative mitigation potential will drop by 3.76–17.14 Gt (over 40%) if the deployment time is delayed by 10 years from 2025; (3) The geographical consistency of matched CFPPs and storage sites provides great opportunities for the development of CCUS clusters in Bohai Bay Basin, South Huabei Basin, Subei Basin, Songliao Basin, and Junggar Basin; (4) Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui, Hebei, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Tianjin are identified as the highest priority for large-scale CCUS deployment considering that they have low-cost opportunities for CO 2 transportation; (5) CFPPs in Heilongjiang, Shanxi and Jilin are more sensitive to the injection rate capacity of nearby storage sites; (6) 300 km are highly suggested to be the upper limit of transport distance especially for those CFPPs targeting deep saline aquifers (DSA) sites. This study provides low-cost CCUS opportunities for provinces and even power plants, as well as support government policymaking, especially in the appropriate length of onshore pipelines and the locations of CCUS hubs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • China's agricultural carbon emission performance (ACEP) has greatly improved. • Technological progress promotes ACEP, but efficiency changes does little. • China's ACEP has an aggregation effect, provinces with lower ACEP are catching up. • China's ACEP is converging and growing at the same time. • China's ACEP will increase further in terms of spatial scope and temporal trends. The spatial characteristics of carbon emissions form the basis for exploring carbon neutrality measures for different regions. As the second largest carbon emission source globally, agricultural carbon emissions should not be ignored. This paper used panel data from 2009 to 2019 to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China, and used the ML index, spatial Morans'I index and three convergence indices to analyze the dynamic changes and spatial pattern of China's agricultural carbon emission performance (ACEP). The results showed that: (i), China's ACEP has increased by 1.5% from 2009 to 2019, following a spatial pattern of eastern (1.041) > western (1.020) > central (0.974);(ii) the contribution of technological progress to China's ACEP was 1.035, exceeding 1, and thus indicating that technological progress can improve ACEP, while the contribution of efficiency changes was only 0.991; (iii) China's ACEP has exhibited a spatial aggregation effect over the last 10 years (P < 0.05), but the value of Moran's I index dropped from 0.265 in 2009 to 0.202 in 2019, which indicates that the spatial aggregation of ACEP is weakening; and (iv) the ML index for 30 provinces in China showed σ convergence, which indicates that the ACEP is improving, while there is absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence, which indicates a "catch-up effect" among regions. The results indicate that China's ACEP is likely to increase further in terms of spatial scope and temporal trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]