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Climatic events and other natural-related disasters experienced in the arid and semi-arid lands of northern Kenya negatively affect the pastoral livelihoods of the communities. Addressing vulnerability to climate shocks among pastoral communities of Kenya's Arid and Semi-lands presents a persistent challenge. Cash transfer programmes have increasingly grown as one mode of building household resilience. Understanding the role of cash transfer interventions on household resilience to climate shocks is key to policy programming. This paper aimed at determining the effects of cash transfers on household resilience to climate shocks. The paper evaluated the Hunger Safety Net Program, which is one of the largest unconditional cash transfer programs in Kenya. The Hunger Safety Net Program targeted poor people in northern Kenya including the counties of Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, and Mandera. To establish the impact the paper compares households which received cash transfers with those that did not receive transfers. The panel fixed effects model was used to determine the effects of cash transfers on household resilience. The results indicate that cash transfers have positive significant effects on household resilience to climate shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation regulates microclimate stability through biophysical mechanisms such as evaporation, transpiration and shading. Therefore, thermal conditions in tree-dominated habitats will frequently differ significantly from standardized free-air temperature measurements. The ability of forests to buffer temperatures nominates them as potential sanctuaries for tree species intolerant to the increasingly challenging thermal conditions established by climate change. Although many factors influencing thermal conditions beneath the vegetation cover have been ascertained, the role of three-dimensional vegetation structure in regulating the understory microclimate remains understudied. Recent advances in remote sensing technologies, such as terrestrial laser scanning, have allowed scientists to capture the three-dimensional structural heterogeneity of vegetation with a high level of accuracy. Here, we examined the relationships between vegetation structure parametrized from voxelized laser scanning point clouds, air and soil temperature ranges, as well as offsets between field-measured temperatures and gridded free-air temperature estimates in 17 sites in a tropical mountain ecosystem in Southeast Kenya. Structural diversity generally exerted a cooling effect on understory temperatures, but vertical diversity and stratification explained more variation in the understory air and soil temperature ranges (30%-40%) than canopy cover (27%), plant area index (24%) and average stand height (23%). We also observed that the combined effects of stratification, canopy cover and elevation explained more than half of the variation (53%) in understory air temperature ranges. Stratification's attenuating effect was consistent across different levels of elevation. Temperature offsets between field measurements and free-air estimates were predominantly controlled by elevation, but stratification and structural diversity were influential predictors of maximum and median temperature offsets. Moreover, stable understory temperatures were strongly associated with a large offset in daytime maximum temperatures, suggesting that structural diversity primarily contributes to thermal stability by cooling daytime maximum temperatures. Our findings shed light on the thermal influence of vertical vegetation structure and, in the context of tropical land-use change, suggest that decision-makers aiming to mitigate the thermal impacts of land conversion should prioritize management practices that preserve structural diversity by retaining uneven-aged trees and mixing plant species of varying sizes, e.g., silvopastoral, or agroforestry systems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This protocol lays the groundwork for a community-centered investigation into the intersection between climate change and violence against women and girls. Providing a standardized framework, this paper will enable researchers to collect and analyze data on severe weather patterns and their potential impact on violence within communities. The interlinkage between violence and climate is an emerging field of research. There is a need for a comprehensive understanding of the intersection of these two issues focusing on the manifestations of violence, specific vulnerabilities, and coping strategies. This protocol outlines a qualitative research approach employed in Kilifi County, Kenya. The study will include key informant interviews with community leaders and policymakers, along with focus group discussions with women, adolescent girls, and men. Community engagement is a crucial component of this work as it will ensure that the research is conducted ethically and respectfully and ensure that the findings are relevant and applicable to the community being studied. This study will contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics between violence against women and girls and climate change, informing policies, interventions, and advocacy efforts and elevating the voices of women and girls to promote gender equity in the face of climate change challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastoralist adaptation strategies have to address multiple, overlapping, and often inter-related processes of socio-ecological change. The present study addresses the need for inter-regional comparative studies that account for different geographic, climate, and socio-economic contexts in order to understand how pastoralists adapt to changes in livelihood conditions. The paper uses data from a unique survey study of pastoralist households in four neighbouring counties in dryland Kenya. Taking our point of departure from an empirically based classification of the livelihood strategies available to pastoralists in the Horn of Africa, the survey offers novel insights into adaptation and fodder management strategies of pastoralist individuals and households. The results show that the use of migration as a strategy is more dependent on the ability to migrate than climate conditions. This is the case in localities where a substantial part of the land is subdivided, the population density is high, and where opportunities for migration are subsequently restricted. Diversification of livelihoods as a strategy is largely defined by opportunity. Intensification through active fodder management is mainly common in areas where there has been a proliferation of managed enclosures. Climate change will test the adaptive capacity of pastoralists in the studied region, and diversification and intensification strategies of both herd composition and livelihoods can be seen as strategies for increased climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shares findings from a detailed empirical analysis of seven development projects in Kenya that supported remote pastoral communities facing food insecurity and other difficulties linked to environmental degradation and climate change. The projects sought to address these challenges by trialing various livelihood innovations in partnership with communities. These project activities were assessed using a tailored cost–benefit analysis methodology to identify those offering the best use of scarce funds, thus informing future policy and programing for such areas. This evidence suggests that (a) the difficulties communities face are creating a desperate situation, and (b) some of the innovations trialed hold promise while others are problematic. The evidence presented includes an array of local voices that vividly convey community-level dynamics and prospects. This evidence is set in context using the literatures on human security and its wider impacts, notably migration from the Sahel. This analysis found the circumstances of pastoral communities can significantly impact neighboring regions, with ongoing instability posing a threat while smart interventions that create local opportunities offer more synergistic outcomes. The paper concludes by calling for greater recognition of the options facing such communities and their wider significance as a basis for scaled up support measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture depends in large part on relations with weather phenomena, such as rain and temperature. Anticipatory knowledge about the atmosphere therefore is vital in agricultural livelihoods. Based on an ethnographic case study of weather forecasting for small-scale farming in western Kenya, in this paper I discuss different ways in which knowledge about the future weather is produced. While development organizations promote expert forecasts that draw on meteorological sensing technologies as a solution to dealing with climate change, I show how knowing the weather is an entangled affair in a sensory assemblage that simultaneously draws on scientific instruments and on other entities such as animals, plants, clouds and embodied sensoria associated with experiential knowledge. Building on concepts related to science and technology studies that address the relations between humans and nonhumans, I suggest to treat scientific and experiential devices symmetrically by looking at their more-than-human sensoria, proxies and imaginations to understand how farmers attune to the weather. In practice, then, navigating the uncertainties of the weather is not enabled by scientific meteorology alone, but by combining different sensory devices and practices of interpretation that together mediate the weather as something to be known and acted upon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kenya's vulnerability to climate variability and change has been compounded by dependence on rain-fed agriculture with constrained capacity to adapt, a rapidly growing population, low-mechanized and low-input smallholder agricultural systems, and compromised soil fertility. The Ukraine war, COVID-19 and the desert locust invasion have only amplified the prevailing sensitivity to shocks in the agriculture sector, creating an emphasis on the need to strengthen local agricultural production to reduce reliance on imports. This paper seeks to assess the opportunities for improving agriculture adaptation and resilience based on future expected changes in climate, length of the growing period and agro-ecologies. The study uses 2020 as the baseline year and explores changes in agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in "near future" 2040 through two representative concentration pathways, 4.5 and 8.5, representing a medium carbon emissions and a dire emissions future, respectively. Google Earth Engine and R Statistics are used in data-processing. Down-scaled climate projections from CIMP5 are used for future analyses combined with static soil suitability and drainage data. Fuzzy logic is used to normalize inputs and compute the agro-ecological zones (AEZ). Interesting results emerge from the study that validate the hypothesis that the seasons and production potential are shifting. Lowland drylands will experience an increasingly long growing period, creating the potential for diversifying production systems from rangelands to agro-pastoral systems, with the capacity to grow more drought-resistant crops and the potential to take advantage of increased runoff for water harvesting. Midland highland areas, which form part of the food basket areas, have already started experiencing a reduction in the length of the growing period and agricultural potential. In these areas, resilience mechanisms will need to consider the expected future reduction in rain-fed agricultural potential, gendered preferences, convergence of technology and indigenous coping mechanisms, and drought-resilience-focused diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock production is affected by climate change, but also contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to ambiguity in how livestock are framed in climate and development policy processes. We use the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to investigate the role of knowledge brokers in Kenyan livestock and climate change policy processes. We analyse how knowledge brokers deal with ambiguity from different problem and response framings within science-policy interfaces using the case of a project that seeks to inform Kenyan policies relevant to livestock and climate change. We identify ambiguity within the problem stream where actors recognise adaptation and mitigation as dual challenges of livestock and climate change. This ambiguity creates tension between actors but can be strategically deployed to help match the problem and policy streams. Actors use the terms 'climate smart' and 'co-benefits' to link the dual adaptation and mitigation needs. In the political stream, nationally defined priorities and external funding possibilities influence the political will and motivation to adopt identified response options. There are opportunities for knowledge brokers to address the ambiguities and translate knowledge during windows of opportunity when the streams are being coupled, but challenges exist, resulting in slow and inadequate development of policies. This paper makes two contributions to the MSF literature. First, we further refine the concept of knowledge brokers and establish their role across all three streams. Second, we apply the MSF in a lower income country and demonstrate that international organizations must be among the actors considered. • Ambiguity surrounds livestock; they are affected by and contribute to climate change. • Knowledge brokers in Kenya frame issues, offer solutions and influence politics. • International actors shape problem framing and solutions around livestock in Kenya. • The MSF needs to be adapted to apply in developing country contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maize crop (Zea mays) is one of the staple foods in the East African (EA) region. However, the suitability of its production area is threatened by projected climate change. The Multimodel Ensemble (MME) from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models was used in this paper to show climate change between the recent past (1970–2000) and the future (2041–2060), i.e., the mid-twenty-first century. The climatic suitability of maize crop production areas is evaluated based on these climate datasets and the current maize crop presence points using Maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). The MME projection showed a slight increase in precipitation under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in certain places and a reduction in most of southern Tanzania. The temperature projection showed that the minimum temperature would increase by 0.3 to 2.95 °C and 0.3 to 3.2 °C under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the maximum temperature would increase by 1.0 to 3.0 °C and 1.2 to 3.6 °C under RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively. The impacts of these projected changes in climate on maize production areas are the reduction in the suitability of the crop, especially around central and western Tanzania, mid-northern and western Uganda, and parts of western Kenya by 20–40%, and patches of EA will experience a reduction of as high as 40–60%, especially in northern Uganda, and western Kenya. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation present a significant negative change in maize crop suitability. Thus, food security and the efforts towards the elimination of hunger in EA by the mid-twenty-first century will be hampered significantly. We recommend crop diversification to suit the new future environments, modernizing maize farming programs through the adoption of new technologies including irrigation, and climate-smart agricultural practices, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-induced migration is an increasingly pressing issue in many African regions, as rising temperatures and extreme weather events have caused the displacement of vulnerable populations. This is especially so in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, where extreme weather events have led to rangeland degradation, crop failures, water shortages, and food insecurity. Hence, there is a perceived need to understand these processes better. Against this background, this paper reports on a study investigating the processes associated with climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. The research method used consisted of an expert-driven assessment approach, which assesses the causes of climate-induced migration in Kenya and Ethiopia and its human and social implications on local communities. Data were collected from 110 experts residing and working on climate and migration-related issues in Ethiopia and Kenya via e-mail, whose knowledge of the current situation has enabled the identification of some important trends. The results show that climate change is a primary trigger of migration both internally and externally. The high number of migrants, many of whom living within levels of poverty in their home areas is straining resources and services in the receiving regions. Their presence is also leading to increased competition for jobs and resources. Additionally, it has increased urban poverty, as many migrants have little access to living space and health care. This paper provides a welcome addition to the literature in that it lists the causes and implications of climate-induced migration and, by doing so, fosters a better understanding of the current crisis and its implications. The implications of this paper to the overall knowledge of climate change and migration are twofold. First, it highlights the need for governments, international organisations, and other stakeholders better to understand the complex linkages between climate change and migration. Secondly, it shows the usefulness of better recognising how climate change can drive migration and the other factors shaping the decision to migrate. The paper concludes by stating the urgent need for policies and programmes that support climate change-induced migrants. Also, it draws attention to the usefulness of promoting sustainable development in their origin countries and destinations, so that migration is not necessarily perceived as the only response to climate change. A further conclusion is that there is a perceived need for providing access to resources such as education, health care, and livelihood opportunities and establishing mechanisms to ensure a safe and dignified return for those who choose to do so. • Climate change is a significant driver for migration in Kenya and Ethiopia. • Droughts, conflicts, and crop failures are among the key drivers of migration. • Male migration is more prominent than a female one. • Limited access to productive resources leads to outmigration from rural areas. • Lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause any major migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to examine the association between in utero drought exposure and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in a global climate change hot spot. Calculations of EAA in adults using DNA methylation have been found to accurately predict chronic disease and longevity. However, fewer studies have examined EAA in children, and drought exposure in utero has not been investigated. Additionally, studies of EAA in low-income countries with diverse populations are rare. We assess EAA using epigenetic clocks and two DNAm-based pace-of-aging measurements from whole saliva samples in 104 drought-exposed children and 109 same-sex sibling controls in northern Kenya. We find a positive association between in utero drought exposure and EAA in two epigenetic clocks (Hannum's and GrimAge) and a negative association in the DNAm based telomere length (DNAmTL) clock. The combined impact of drought's multiple deleterious stressors may reduce overall life expectancy through accelerated epigenetic aging. The study suggests a positive association between in utero drought exposure and faster biological aging in children in a global climate change hot spot. Drought experienced during pregnancy may reduce life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To understand community perspectives on the effects of high ambient temperature on the health and wellbeing of neonates, and impacts on post-partum women and infant care in Kilifi. Design: Qualitative study using key informant interviews, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with pregnant and postpartum women (n = 22), mothers-in-law (n = 19), male spouses (n = 20), community health volunteers (CHVs) (n = 22) and stakeholders from health and government ministries (n = 16). Settings: We conducted our research in Kilifi County in Kenya's Coast Province. The area is largely rural and during summer, air temperatures can reach 37˚C and rarely go below 23˚C. Data analysis: Data were analyzed in NVivo 12, using both inductive and deductive approaches. Results: High ambient temperature is perceived by community members to have direct and indirect health pathways in pregnancy and postpartum periods, including on the neonates. The direct impacts include injuries on the neonate's skin and in the mouth, leading to discomfort and affecting breastfeeding and sleeping. Participants described babies as "having no peace". Heat effects were perceived to be amplified by indoor air pollution and heat from indoor cooking fires. Community members believed that exclusive breastfeeding was not practical in conditions of extreme heat because it lowered breast milk production, which was, in turn, linked to a low scarcity of food and time spend by mothers away from their neonates performing household chores. Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) was also negatively affected. Participants reported that postpartum women took longer to heal in the heat, were exhausted most of the time and tended not to attend postnatal care. Conclusions: High ambient temperatures affect postpartum women and their neonates through direct and indirect pathways. Discomfort makes it difficult for the mother to care for the baby. Multi-sectoral policies and programs are required to mitigate the negative impacts of high ambient temperatures on maternal and neonatal health in rural Kilifi and similar settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing resource depletion and promoting ecosystem‐based management are considered key climate change adaptation policies. Therefore, the resource status of an identified climate refugia in a semi‐enclosed bay on the Kenya–Tanzania border was evaluated for sustainability. Both fisheries stock and catch assessment methods found low production and excess effort. Stock recovery in closures (up to 45 years) determined the best‐fit r and K values, which established a maximum sustainable production (MSY) of 2.98 ± 0.45 (SEM) tons/km2/year. Stock estimates in the bays' fishing grounds indicated that biomass was below the MSY and predicted to produce 1.8 ± 1.0 (SEM) or 1.1 ton/km2/year below the optimal MSY. However, landed fish at five studied fishing villages varied greatly from 0.22 to 2.9 tons/km2/year. MSY in the refugia was therefore considerably lower than estimates in nearby ocean‐exposed locations, which has been estimated at 5–7 tons/km2/year. Therefore, low to modest capture rates of fish will be required to allow the recovery needed to achieve sustainability and restore the refugia's ecology. The refugia's highest stocks and near‐MSY yields were captured in the national reserve. Therefore, broader implementation of the reserve's gear‐restriction policies should restore fisheries. High spatial variability in yield patterns indicate interactions between fisheries management, compliance, trade connections, and governance. In climate refugia, reducing cumulative impacts will require knowing and managing for lower fisheries production limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rising threat of climate change, green hydrogen is increasingly seen as the high-capacity energy storage and transport medium of the future. This creates an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to leverage their high renewable energy potential to produce, use, and export low-cost green hydrogen, creating environmental and economic development benefits. While identifying ideal locations for green hydrogen production is critical for countries when defining their green hydrogen strategies, there has been a paucity of adequate geospatial planning approaches suitable to low- and middle-income countries. It is essential for these countries to identify green hydrogen production sites which match demand to expected use cases such that their strategies are economically sustainable. This paper therefore develops a novel geospatial cost modelling method to optimize the location of green hydrogen production across different use cases, with a focus on suitability to low- and middle-income countries. This method is applied in Kenya to investigate the potential hydrogen supply chain for three use cases: ammonia-based fertilizer, freight transport, and export. We find hydrogen production costs of €3.7–9.9/kg H 2 are currently achievable across Kenya, depending on the production location chosen. The cheapest production locations are identified to the south and south-east of Lake Turkana. We show that ammonia produced in Kenya can be cost-competitive given the current energy crisis and that Kenya could export hydrogen to Rotterdam with costs of €7/kg H 2 , undercutting current market prices regardless of the carrier medium. With expected techno-economic improvements, hydrogen production costs across Kenya could drop to €1.8–3.0/kg H 2 by 2030. [Display omitted] • We develop a novel GIS method to identify least-cost green hydrogen production locations. • This is applied in Kenya for ammonia, freight transport, and export use cases. • Hydrogen production costs of €3.7–9.9/kg H 2 are currently achievable in Kenya. • The cheapest production locations are to the south/south-east of Lake Turkana. • Kenya could export hydrogen and undercut current market prices with any carrier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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• Women face unique risks associated with food insecurity and climate change. • Changing childbearing may be an explicit livelihood strategy. • Women respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility behaviors. • Ensuring availability of diverse family planning services is a priority. Agricultural production and household food security are hypothesized to play a critical role connecting climate change to downstream effects on women's health, especially in communities dependent on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal variability in agriculture strains food and income resources and makes it a challenging time for households to manage a pregnancy or afford a new child. Yet, there are few direct assessments of the role locally varying agricultural quality plays on women's health, especially reproductive health. In this paper we build on and integrate ideas from past studies focused on climate change and growing season quality in low-income countries with those on reproductive health to examine how variation in local seasonal agricultural quality relates to childbearing goals and family planning use in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Uganda. We use rich, spatially referenced data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) individual surveys with detailed information on childbearing preferences and family planning decisions. Building on recent advances in remote monitoring of seasonal agriculture, we construct multiple vegetation measures capturing different dimensions of growing season conditions across varying time frames. Results for the Kenya sample indicate that if the recent growing season is better a woman is more likely to want a child in the future. In Uganda, when the growing season conditions are better, women prefer to shorten the time until their next birth and are also more likely to discontinue using family planning. Additional analyses reveal the importance of education and birth spacing in moderating these findings. Overall, our findings suggest that, in some settings, women strategically respond to growing season conditions by adjusting fertility aspirations or family planning use. This study also highlights the importance of operationalizing agriculture in nuanced ways that align with women's lives to better understand how women are impacted by and respond to seasonal climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Involuntary displacement from conflict and other causes leads to clustering of refugees and internally displaced people, often in long-term settlements. Within refugee-hosting countries, refugee settlements are frequently located in isolated and remote areas, characterized by poor-quality land and harsh climatic conditions. Yet, the exposure of refugee settlements to climatic events is underresearched. In this article, we study the exposure of the 20 largest refugee settlements worldwide to extreme variations in climatic conditions. The analysis integrates exposure of camp locations compared to the national trends for both slow- and rapid-onset events and includes descriptive statistics, signal-to-noise analyses, and trend analyses. Our findings show that most refugee settlements included face relatively high exposure to slow-onset events, including high temperatures (for settlements in Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan, and Uganda), low temperatures (in the case of Jordan and Pakistan), and low levels of rainfall (in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda) compared to national averages. Our findings for rapid-onset events--heatwaves, coldwaves, and extreme rainfall--are less conclusive compared to country trends, although we find relatively high exposure to extreme rainfall in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Our analyses confirm that refugee populations are exposed to extreme weather conditions postdisplacement, which, in combination with their sociopolitical exclusion, poses a threat to well-being and increased marginalization. Our findings call for an inclusive and integrated approach, including refugees and their host communities, in designing climate adaptation and sustainable development policies, in order to promote equitable sustainable development pathways in refugee-hosting countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Water plays a critical role in the production of food and preparation of nutritious meals, yet few studies have examined the relationship between water and food insecurity. The primary objective of this study, therefore, was to examine how experiences of household water insecurity (HWI) relate to experiences of household food insecurity (HFI) among a pastoralist population living in an arid, water-stressed region of northern Kenya. Design: We implemented the twelve-item Household Water Insecurity Experiences (HWISE, range 0–36) Scale and the nine-item Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS, range 0–27) in a cross-sectional survey to measure HWI and HFI, respectively. Data on socio-demographic characteristics and intake of meat and dairy in the prior week were collected as covariates of interest. Setting: Northern Kenya, June–July 2019. Participants: Daasanach pastoralist households (n 136) from seven communities. Results: In the prior 4 weeks, 93·4 % and 98·5 % of households had experienced moderate-to-severe HWI and HFI, respectively. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated a strong association between HWI and HFI. Each point higher HWISE score was associated with a 0·44-point (95 % CI: 0·22, 0·66, P = 0·003) higher HFIAS score adjusting for socio-economic status and other covariates. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate high prevalence and co-occurrence of HWI and HFI among Daasanach pastoralists in northern Kenya. This study highlights the need to address HWI and HFI simultaneously when developing policies and interventions to improve the nutritional well-being of populations whose subsistence is closely tied to water availability and access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess, compare, and attribute the effects due to separate and combined land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is set up and calibrated for a small contributing sub-basin of the Tana River Basin (TRB) in Kenya. The model is then applied to simulate the hydrological components (i.e., streamflow (FLOW), evapotranspiration (ET), soil water (SW), and water yield (WYLD)) for different combinations of LULC and climate scenarios. Land use data generated from Land Satellite 5 Thematic Mapper (Landsat 5TM) images for two different periods (1987 and 2011) and satellite-based precipitation data from the African Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2) dataset are utilized as inputs to the SWAT model. The Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), and the ratio of root mean square error to the standard deviation (RSR) for daily streamflow were 0.73, 0.76, 3.16%, and 0.51 in calibration period, respectively, and 0.45, 0.54, 12.53%, and 0.79 in validation period, respectively, suggesting that the model performed relatively good. An analysis of the LULC data for the catchment showed that there was an increase in agricultural, grassland, and forested land with a concomitant decrease in woodland and shrubland. Simulation results revealed that change in climate had a more significant effect on the simulated parameters than the change in LULC. It is shown that changes in LULC only had very minor effects in the simulated parameters. The monthly mean FLOW and WYLD decreased by 0.02% and 0.11%, respectively, while ET and SW increased by a monthly mean of 0.2% and 2.2%. Varying the catchment climate and holding the land use constant reduced FLOW, ET, SW, and WYLD by an average monthly mean of 43.2%, 21%, 13%, and 70%, respectively, indicating that climate changes have more significant effects on the catchment hydrological processes than changes in LULC. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate and identify the isolated and combined effects of LULC and climatic changes when assessing impacts on the TRB's hydrological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa and the impact is projected to increase in the future. To allow adaptation and mitigation of the impacts, we assessed the changes in climate and their impacts on hydrology and hydrological extremes in East Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP‐6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 1981–2010 is used as a reference period. The output from GCMs are statistically downscaled using the Bias Correction‐Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method to drive a high‐resolution hydrological model. The Variable Infiltration Capacity and vector‐based routing models are used to simulate runoff and streamflow across 68,300 river reaches in East Africa. The results show an increase in annual precipitation (up to 35%) in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya and a decrease (up to 4.5%) in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). During the long rainy season (March–May), precipitation is projected to be higher (up to 43%) than the reference period in Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda but lower (up to −20%) in Tanzania. Large parts of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Southern Ethiopia show an increase in precipitation (up to 38%) during the short rainy season (October–December). Temperature and evapotranspiration will continue to increase in the future. Further, annual and seasonal streamflow and hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) are projected to increase in large parts of the region throughout the 21st century calling for site‐specific adaptation. Key Points: Precipitation, precipitation extremes, and temperature will increase in large parts of East Africa in the 21st centuryHydrological extremes (droughts and floods) will increase in the future in large parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and TanzaniaSite‐specific adaptation measures are urgently required to minimize the adverse impact of hydroclimate extremes in East Africa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cleaner production is preventive and should be integrated into every production process. Despite its huge contribution to climate change, cleaner production faces many adoption and implementation hurdles which make it harder for organizations to adopt the practice and reap the benefits that come with it. This paper highlights these hindrances, and the various motivations that organizations could take advantage of in their urge to achieve cleaner production. This research assesses the importance of regulations and finances in adopting cleaner production. Also, the research evaluates the role of firms' need to control environmental costs, improve relations with the community, keep up with competitors and achieve a competitive advantage in adopting cleaner technologies. The study uses a probit model to analyze data collected from 852 representative firms in Kenya. This study finds that regulatory constraints and financial resources limit firms. The need to control environmental costs, improve relations with the community, keep up with competitors and achieve a competitive advantage motivate firms to adopt cleaner technologies. These findings are particularly important to policy makers at national and firm levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: This study aimed to investigate the distribution patterns of plant diversity in Kenya, how climatic fluctuations and orogeny shaped them, and the formation of its β‐diversity. Location: Kenya, East Africa. Taxon: Angiosperms. Methods: We quantified patterns of turnover and nestedness components of phylogenetic β‐diversity for angiosperm species among neighbouring sites using a well‐resolved phylogenetic tree and extensive distribution records from public databases and other published sources. We applied clustering methods to delineate biota based on pairwise similarities among multiple sites and used a random assembly null model to assess the effects of species abundance distribution on phylogenetic β‐diversity. Results: The phylogenetic turnover of the Kenyan flora, intersecting with the biodiversity hotspots Eastern Afromontane, Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, and Horn of Africa, shows a non‐monotonic pattern along a latitudinal gradient that is strongly structured into volcanic and coastal areas. The other areas are mainly dominated by phylogenetic nestedness, even in the eastern part of the equatorial region parallel to the volcanic area. Phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic structure analyses explain the mechanism of the observed phylogenetic turnover and nestedness patterns. We identified five phytogeographical regions in Kenya: the Mandera, Turkana, Volcanic, Pan Coastal and West Highland Regions. Conclusions: Variations in turnover gradient and coexistence are highly dependent on the regional biogeographical history resulting from climatic fluctuations and long‐lasting orogeny, which jointly shaped the biodiversity patterns of the Kenyan flora. The nestedness component dominated climatically unstable regions and is presumed to have been caused by heavy local species extinction and recolonization from the Volcanic Region. The high turnover component in climatically stable regions may have preserved old lineages and the prevalence of endemic species within narrow ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a complicated natural hazard that has far-reaching social and environmental impacts. In Ethiopia's diverse agro ecological zones, drought remains a severe challenge and problem. Livestock rising is one of the agricultural sub-sectors that provide income and livelihood to around one-third of African inhabitants and accounts for 30–50 percent of agricultural GDP. Pastoralists on the Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia border endured extreme suffering, including the loss of nearly 80% of their cattle and huge migration out of drought-stricken areas. Drought can cause severe economic hardship and stress for farmers and local economies, like; lost productivity, population reduction, and the trauma of witnessing livestock, crops, soil, and native vegetation damage. Between 1990 and 2000, and 2001-2002/03, drought-related animal death rates in the Somali region increased by 60% and 80% of the entire cattle population, respectively. Drought has the greatest immediate effects on farmers, including depletion of water resources, crop failure, and an increase in food prices, ill health, livestock output losses and death, and a decline in livestock prices in the Borana zone. Drought adaptation and mitigation measures depending on geography and livestock system may improve the study's trajectory in the future if further review is done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in resource availability is hypothesized to be a significant driver of primate adaptation and evolution, but most paleoclimate proxies cannot recover environmental seasonality on the scale of an individual lifespan. Oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O values) sampled at high spatial resolution in the dentitions of modern African primates (n = 2,352 near weekly measurements from 26 teeth) track concurrent seasonal precipitation, regional climatic patterns, discrete meteorological events, and niche partitioning. We leverage these data to contextualize the first δ18O values of two 17Ma Afropithecus turkanensis individuals from Kalodirr, Kenya, from which we infer variably bimodal wet seasons, supported by rainfall reconstructions in a global Earth system model. Afropithecus' δ18O fluctuations are intermediate in magnitude between those measured at high resolution in baboons (Papio spp.) living across a gradient of aridity and modern forest-dwelling chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus). This large-bodied Miocene ape consumed seasonally variable food and water sources enriched in 18O compared to contemporaneous terrestrial fauna (n = 66 fossil specimens). Reliance on fallback foods during documented dry seasons potentially contributed to novel dental features long considered adaptations to hardobject feeding. Developmentally informed microsampling recovers greater ecological complexity than conventional isotope sampling; the two Miocene apes (n = 248 near weekly measurements) evince as great a range of seasonal δ18O variation as more timeaveraged bulk measurements from 101 eastern African Plio-Pleistocene hominins and 42 papionins spanning 4 million y. These results reveal unprecedented environmental histories in primate teeth and suggest a framework for evaluating climate change and primate paleoecology throughout the Cenozoic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Home gardening is promoted as an adaptation strategy to ameliorate the increasing food insecurity from climate change impacts among subsistence farming families in rural sub‐Saharan Africa. Yet, the geographic distribution of home gardens, their setup, management, and the effects on nutrition outcomes have not been fully described. This scoping review aimed to map and synthesize recent evidence on home gardening for two exemplar countries: Burkina Faso and Kenya. Between June and August 2020, we searched, screened, and extracted evidence about home garden projects in both countries, following the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews. Peer‐reviewed scientific publications, and gray literature in English and French that reported about subsistence horticulture in rural settings of Burkina Faso or Kenya were included. The characteristics of the documents and the data pertaining to our research objectives were extracted into predefined spreadsheets. The data were synthesized in the form of a narrative review. Our search yielded 949 documents, of which 20 documents were included in the synthesis (Burkina Faso: 8, Kenya: 12). While the gardens varied in composition and size, the majority provided green leafy vegetables and indigenous horticultural crops. The challenges for successful home garden implementation comprised unfavorable climatic conditions, access to and affordability of inputs, water and land, and lack of know‐how. We identified trends for improved food security, diet quality, and nutritional status among the target populations. This scoping review found that there is limited evidence on home garden practices in rural Burkina Faso and Kenya. To enhance the sustainability of home gardens, research and resources should be invested in codesigning context‐specific home gardening projects. Pending rigorous impact evaluation, home gardens appear to be a promising tool for climate change adaptation while simultaneously improving food security and the nutritional situation among women and young children in these two exemplar countries of sub‐Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Living organisms are vulnerable to thermal stress, which causes a diversity of physiological outcomes. Previous work has shown that the snail vectors (Biomphalaria glabrata) of an important human pathogen, Schistosoma mansoni, revert from resistant to susceptible after short exposure to a heat stress as low as 31°C; however, due to lack of replicability among labs and genetic lines of snails, it has been hypothesized that this effect is genotype dependent. We examined the effects of heat shock on the resistance of two species of snail vectors including B. glabrata and Biomphalaria sudanica. We used three different inbred laboratory snail lines in addition to the F1 generation of field‐collected snails from Lake Victoria, Kenya, an area with high levels of schistosomiasis transmission. Our results showed marginal effects of heat shock on prevalence of infection in B. glabrata, and that this response was genotype specific. We found no evidence of a heat shock effect on prevalence of infection in B. sudanica or on intensity of infection (number of infectious stages shed) in either snail species. Such environmentally influenced defense responses stress the importance of considering this unique interaction between snail and parasite genotypes in determining infection dynamics under climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genus Eucalyptus belongs to the family Myrtaceae and consists of more than 900 species, various hybrids and varieties. The major species that are grown in Kenya are Eucalyptus grandis, E. globulus, E. saligna and E. camaldulensis. Most Eucalyptus species are highly dependent on rainfall and this is challenged by climatic changes owing to global warming making it difficult to effectively match the availability of mature trees and the market demand especially for use as power transmission poles. With the widespread availability of other naturally occurring Eucalyptus species such as E. camaldulensis and E. globulus, it becomes important to determine the genetic diversity and to analyze the phenotypic traits of these species for suitability as power transmission poles in order to counter the overdependence on E. grandis. Phenotypic traits investigated included measuring total tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH), while molecular data were obtained from sequencing MatK, rbcL and TrnL-F genes from selected species and evolutionary analyses such as nucleotide substitution rates, base composition disparity indices, evolutionary divergence, nucleotide diversity indices and phylogeny construction were conducted in MEGA 11. Significant differences in DBH and height among Eucalyptus species were observed when the phenotypic data were subjected to ANOVA. In this study, E. robusta, E. paniculata, E. maculata, E. dunnii, E. camaldulensis and E. citriodora are fit to be used as power transmission poles but they are limited by their short height. However, E. tereticornis and E. glaucina have the desired DBH and height and hence can be used as substitutes for E.grandis. Generally, the molecular phylogeny study has shown that the studied Eucalyptus species are closely related and form various monophyletic clades which can be attributed to the short genetic distances, low substitution rates, low nucleotide bias disparity indices and low diversity scores. Further phylogenetic and gene expression studies involving more Eucalyptus species are needed to better understand Eucalyptus phylogeny, and diversity and identify species with similar genetic make-up to that of E. grandis which has been used extensively for the provision of electricity transmission poles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurrent droughts and long-term changes to climate, social structures, and the economy in the world's arid and semi-arid lands have impacted pastoralists' livelihood activities over time, resulting in different livelihood pathways. Some pastoralists continue to follow more traditional strategies of herd accumulation, while others frequently engage in livestock markets and value addition activities, and others still are dropping out of pastoralism. Using data collected over 6 years from 924 households in northern Kenya and applying a generalized structural dynamic multinomial logit model, this study quantitatively determined the dynamic transitions between livelihood categories conditional on drought incidences. From the results, there were considerable and frequent transitions between livelihood pathways within the panel period (2009–2015). Notably, many households that started in the low-cash income, larger herd size category denoted as hanging in, were transitioning to lower cash income with small herds (dropping out). At the same time, there was a great deal of back and forth between the category with low-cash income and small herd size (dropping out) and the category with higher cash income and small herd size (moving out), indicating that moving out was the only way out of poverty. Also, an increase in vegetation index from a drought season where the index was at a 10% level to a good season where the level was 90% decreased the likelihood of households dropping out from a predicted probability of 37.9 to 28.7% and increased the likelihood of moving up and moving out from 22.2 to 25.0% and 22.6 to 34.3%, respectively, unconditionally. The study findings imply that any livelihood interventions aimed at reducing the impact of drought and alleviating poverty among pastoral households should support the transition to market-oriented, relatively successful pathways and also protect households from falling back into the ranks of poverty by dropping out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article used the case of the Pokot community in northern Kenya to argue that focusing only on technical approaches in dealing with conflicts induced by climate change neglects the deeper religio-spiritual mechanisms that motivate actors in such conflicts and give the latter their texture. For example, the sacred connection with cattle, forests, and land, or the spiritual blessings of cattle raiders in times of competition over dwindling resources raise questions concerning whether and how indigenous religions' sacred beliefs and practices contribute to finding peaceful solutions to such conflicts and advancing the discourse of religious peacebuilding. This article deployed the concept of religious environmental sense-making to argue that framing climate-induced conflicts in sacred terms influences how actors position themselves within them, as well as their level of intensity and intractability. Answering this question is crucial to advancing the field of peacebuilding, understanding what propels actors in climate-induced conflicts, and comprehending how policy-makers and mediators in conflicts can develop locally grounded strategies to address such climate issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkana County has a long history of drought and development interventions and remains one of the poorest counties in Kenya. In Turkana, livelihoods are increasingly under threat because of climate change, conflict, and the changing land use and management. There are complex interactions between the multiple drivers of change in landscapes and livelihoods in the region. The question addressed here is: How have external development interventions contributed to the changing pastoralist livelihoods in Turkana? This study is specific to the lower part of the Turkwel River basin, particularly the Nanyee irrigated area in Turkwel, Loima sub-County of Turkana County. This article examines the external development interventions during the colonial, post-independence, and contemporary periods to reveal the ways that land use practices and livelihoods have changed across these periods. Land use practices are changing due to the growing human population, droughts, urbanization, and dispossession of grazing areas through state and donor-supported interventions. It is suggested in this article that the change from a system of customary, unrestricted grazing to one of enclosed pastures has threatened pastoral territories, as well as cultures and livelihoods over the past six decades. The new set of development interventions introduced by international and national actors have failed to support local livelihoods, instead joining the list of existing problems that undermine pastoralism, including drought, livestock diseases, and cattle rustling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adaptation requires understanding of complex social ecological systems (SESs). One source of uncertainty in complex SESs is ambiguity, defined as the range and variety of existing perceptions in and of an SES, which are considered equally valid, resulting in a lack of a unique or single system understanding. Current modelling practices that acknowledge the presence of ambiguity in SESs focus on finding consensus with stakeholders; however, advanced methods for explicitly representing and aggregating ambiguity in SESs are underdeveloped. Moreover, understanding the influences of ambiguity on SES representation is limited. This paper demonstrates the presence and range of ambiguities in endogenous and exogenous system drivers and internal relationships based on individual fuzzy cognitive maps derived from stakeholder perceptions of climate change adaptation in Kenya and introduces an ambiguity based modelling process. Our results indicate that acknowledging ambiguity fundamentally changes SES representation and more advanced methods are required. • Ambiguity is an important aspect of social ecological system understanding. • Fuzzy cognitive maps elucidate a range of ambiguities among stakeholders. • Ambiguity based aggregation was used to quantify ambiguity. • We found the greatest ambiguity in the presence (or lack of) of relationships. • More advanced ambiguity based modelling practices are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore how seed systems enhance access to seeds, and information for climate-change adaptation in farming communities in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, as well as how gender-driven roles and institutional dynamics influence the process. Men and women farmers equally experience climate-change related effects, including drought, short rainy seasons and increased pest and disease incidence. Our study relies on exploratory data analysis of 1001 households surveyed in four sites in 2016. Farmers surveyed preferred early-maturing, heat-tolerant, high-yielding, and pest- and disease-resistant varieties, all important climate-adaptive traits. Seed systems of the focus crops studied are largely informal—overall, 68% women and 62% men use their own seed, indicating women's higher reliance on 'informal' seed and information sources. Only 21% of respondents reported interacting with seed experts who are affiliated with formal organizations. Both formal and informal organizations play a key role in providing access to climate-adapted seed/information, with access for men and women varying across the countries studied. There is a need to support further development of those connections, building on existing social networks. We conclude that inclusive and gender-responsive context- and country-specific seed interventions will ensure equitable outcomes, increase women's empowerment and strengthen both formal and informal seed systems for more effective climate-change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]