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• Households change their heating patterns when they switch to a heat pump. • Typically, a setback temperature 2–5 °C lower than the desired thermostat setting. • We calculate the increase in heat demand with varied parameters. • The increase in heat demand is determined by heat loss and thermal mass. • This would be a useful metric for 'heat pump readiness'. Heating with air source heat pumps is an important step in the transition to Net Zero Carbon for many households. When predicting the resulting energy consumption it is frequently assumed that heating demand is unchanged from before the switch from gas heating. However, heating patterns usually change, with a net increase in heating demand to achieve the same level of thermal comfort. This paper discusses the change in pattern and uses modelling to determine the resulting increase in energy demand. It shows that the increase can be predicted with information about dwelling heat loss and thermal mass as well as weather and the pre and post switch heating pattern. The increase can be 20% or more for homes with high heat loss. It proposes that the metric for heating demand increase would be a useful measure of heat pump readiness, and that the parameters required to assess this should be provided on energy performance certificates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonisation in moderate and cold climates is reliant on the replacement of existing heating technologies with electric heat pumps. Heat pumps work differently from incumbent technologies, including in how they are controlled, their distribution of heat around the home and their space requirements. Despite evidence that domestic practices and interests associated with women played an important role in previous heating transitions, policy and research have not yet considered how heat pumps might interact with traditionally gendered needs and concerns. This could have significant implications for the success of the heat pump transition. This synthesis uses a framework of evidenced heating needs, incorporating wellbeing, resources, ease of use and relational dynamics, to structure a narrative literature review on how experiences of heat pumps may be gendered. Indicative evidence suggests that heat pumps have the potential to improve female thermal comfort, but that other possibly gendered heating needs such as minimising perceived waste and easy controllability are not always addressed. Amidst a lack of empirical studies exploring women's needs, and whether they are met by heat pumps, a series of recommendations is provided for multidisciplinary research on the topic and to enhance consideration of gendered needs and experiences in policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]