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Flow-like landslides are recognized to be the most destructive slope movements and to threaten human life. They may occur in several geological settings, as is the case of the pyroclastic soil covers resting on either igneous, or carbonate, bedrocks. The pyroclastic soil strata involved in these shallow landslides typically are partially saturated over the whole year. Intense rainfall, considered at hourly time scale, represents the triggering factor because it causes the decrease in matric suction and the consequent decrease in soil shear strength. However, it is recognized as the role of the hydromechanical slope behavior, the vegetation cover, and the geomorphological irregularities on shallow landslide hazard. These factors should be properly simulated in physically based predictive models of the failure onset to set up a reliable early warning system (EWS). This paper presents a new coupled thermohydraulic modeling of a pyroclastic soil cover in Campania, accounting for several slope factors that may predispose landslide activation, including the geomorphological local irregularities. The Mount Faito test site, in the Lattari Mountains (Southern Italy), has been adopted as a prototype slope for the geomorphological and hydromechanical scenarios of reference because of the extensive field and laboratory characterizations of the soil strata already available from previous studies. Once validated with these data, the numerical model has been used to estimate the slope response to critical rainfall scenarios. Such numerical estimations have been then compared to the instability predictions currently provided by empirical approaches, defined in terms of the intensity and duration of rainstorms threshold of shallow landslide activations. By comparison between the empirical and physically based approaches, the crucial role of antecedent slope hydraulic conditions and the geological setting for implementing reliable EWS, reducing false alarms, is proved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broad mountainous areas in the western Campania (southern Italy), where young pyroclastic deposits extensively outcrop, frequently experience rainfall-induced slope movements of different degrees of mobility, causing heavy damage and fatalities. Such landslides cannot be easily mitigated, and the implementation of physically based early warning systems is still not able to predict the post-failure evolution of slope movements and the exposed areas at risk. This paper is devoted to overcoming this limit. To this end, the mechanical characterization of pyroclastic soil, carried out through an extensive laboratory testing program, is presented and compared with those of two other ashy soils of different depositional mechanisms. The results show that the depositional mode influences soil properties; to begin with, it affects the unsaturated shear strength, whose intercept of cohesion is up to 5 kPa higher in ashes of flow deposition than in airfall ash deposits. The saturated undrained soil response allowed for the identification of different levels of susceptibility to the liquefaction of pyroclastic deposits, which is one of the main factors governing the post-failure evolution of landslides. Gathering all the acquired information, including saturated and unsaturated soil shear strength, permeability function, and water retention curves, into a soil database, it was possible to present all data under a unitary framework. Finally, the implementation of the proposed flowchart for a simplified assessment of post-failure evolution to be employed in regional early warning systems can enhance our knowledge of the areas at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent events, including the floods in central Europe in May 2021, have highlighted how climate change is giving rise to scenarios that were neither foreseen nor predictable. One problem this poses is the need to rethink the logic of various environmental constraints that are often based on return times of 20-50 years or 100-200. A single event does not change the statistical expectations for the recurrence of the event itself, but the recurrence of several extraordinary events in a few years is a clear indication of a changing trend. The prevention of the effects of such events is based on the definition of the areas at greater or lesser risk specifically based on the return times of the exceptional events, so it is foreseeable that a series of territorial plans, mostly carried out a few decades ago, will have to be updated or re-executed from scratch. These reworkings will be able to take advantage of the opensource software and open spatial data that have become available in the meantime, facilitating the entire process, and making it more open and shareable. In this paper we tested on a real case (the May 1999 pyroclastic flows in Campania, southern Italy) the actual possibility of implementing a model for forecasting such events using only open-source software and open data. It has been demonstrated that the entire process can be carried out using only open-source resources and it has been verified that the predictions of the hazard and risk model obtained with only input data prior to the event, give an output prediction that is significantly coincident with the events that actually occurred as documented by the authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]