Search

In observational studies, the time origin of interest for time-to-event analysis is often unknown, such as the time of disease onset. Existing approaches to estimating the time origins are commonly built on extrapolating a parametric longitudinal model, which rely on rigid assumptions that can lead to biased inferences. In this paper, we introduce a flexible semiparametric curve registration model. It assumes the longitudinal trajectories follow a flexible common shape function with person-specific disease progression pattern characterized by a random curve registration function, which is further used to model the unknown time origin as a random start time. This random time is used as a link to jointly model the longitudinal and survival data where the unknown time origins are integrated out in the joint likelihood function, which facilitates unbiased and consistent estimation. Since the disease progression pattern naturally predicts time-to-event, we further propose a new functional survival model using the registration function as a predictor of the time-to-event. The asymptotic consistency and semiparametric efficiency of the proposed models are proved. Simulation studies and two real data applications demonstrate the effectiveness of this new approach. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By clustering patients with the urologic chronic pelvic pain syndromes (UCPPS) into homogeneous subgroups and associating these subgroups with baseline covariates and other clinical outcomes, we provide opportunities to investigate different potential elements of pathogenesis, which may also guide us in selection of appropriate therapeutic targets. Motivated by the longitudinal urologic symptom data with extensive subject heterogeneity and differential variability of trajectories, we propose a functional clustering procedure where each subgroup is modeled by a functional mixed effects model, and the posterior probability is used to iteratively classify each subject into different subgroups. The classification takes into account both group-average trajectories and between-subject variabilities. We develop an equivalent state-space model for efficient computation. We also propose a cross-validation based Kullback–Leibler information criterion to choose the optimal number of subgroups. The performance of the proposed method is assessed through a simulation study. We apply our methods to longitudinal bi-weekly measures of a primary urological urinary symptoms score from a UCPPS longitudinal cohort study, and identify four subgroups ranging from moderate decline, mild decline, stable and mild increasing. The resulting clusters are also associated with the one-year changes in several clinically important outcomes, and are also related to several clinically relevant baseline predictors, such as sleep disturbance score, physical quality of life and painful urgency. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are at elevated risk of developing systemic vascular disease and cognitive dysfunction. Here, cerebral oxygen metabolism was assessed in patients with OSA by means of a magnetic resonance-based method involving simultaneous measurements of cerebral blood flow rate and venous oxygen saturation in the superior sagittal sinus for a period of 10 minutes at an effective temporal resolution of 1.3 seconds before, during, and after repeated 24-second breath-holds mimicking spontaneous apneas, yielding, along with pulse oximetry-derived arterial saturation, whole-brain CMRO2 via Fick's Principle. Enrolled subjects were classified based on their apnea-hypopnea indices into OSA (N = 31) and non-sleep apnea reference subjects (NSA = 21), and further compared with young healthy subjects (YH, N = 10). OSA and NSA subjects were matched for age and body mass index. CMRO2 was lower in OSA than in the YH group during normal breathing (105.6 ± 14.1 versus 123.7 ± 22.8 μmol O2/min/100g, P = 0.01). Further, the fractional change in CMRO2 in response to a breath-hold challenge was larger in OSA than in the YH group (15.2 ± 9.2 versus 8.5 ± 3.4%, P = 0.04). However, there was no significant difference in CMRO2 between OSA and NSA subjects. The data suggest altered brain oxygen metabolism in OSA and possibly in NSA as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Intervention of Alzheimer's dementia hinges on early diagnosis and advanced planning. This work utilizes the cognitive clock, a novel indicator of brain health, to develop a dementia prediction model that can be easily applied in broad settings., Methods: Data came from over 3000 community-dwelling older adults. Cognitive age was estimated by aligning Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores to a clock that represents the typical cognitive aging profile. We identified a mean cognitive age at Alzheimer's dementia onset and predicted the corresponding chronological age at person-specific level., Results: The mean chronological age at baseline was 78 years. A total of 881 (28%) participants developed Alzheimer's dementia. The mean cognitive age at onset was 91 years. The predicted chronological age at onset had a mean (standard deviation) of 87.6 (6.7) years. The model's prediction accuracy was supported by multiple testing statistics., Discussion: Our model offers an easy-to-use tool for predicting person-specific age at Alzheimer's dementia onset., (© 2023 the Alzheimer's Association.)

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has created more devastation among dialysis patients than among the general population. Patient-level prediction models for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are crucial for the early identification of patients to prevent and mitigate outbreaks within dialysis clinics. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, it is unclear whether or not previously built prediction models are still sufficiently effective., Methods: We developed a machine learning (XGBoost) model to predict during the incubation period a SARS-CoV-2 infection that is subsequently diagnosed after 3 or more days. We used data from multiple sources, including demographic, clinical, treatment, laboratory, and vaccination information from a national network of hemodialysis clinics, socioeconomic information from the Census Bureau, and county-level COVID-19 infection and mortality information from state and local health agencies. We created prediction models and evaluated their performances on a rolling basis to investigate the evolution of prediction power and risk factors., Result: From April 2020 to August 2020, our machine learning model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.75, an improvement of over 0.07 from a previously developed machine learning model published by Kidney360 in 2021. As the pandemic evolved, the prediction performance deteriorated and fluctuated more, with the lowest AUROC of 0.6 in December 2021 and January 2022. Over the whole study period, that is, from April 2020 to February 2022, fixing the false-positive rate at 20%, our model was able to detect 40% of the positive patients. We found that features derived from local infection information reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were the most important predictors, and vaccination status was a useful predictor as well. Whether or not a patient lives in a nursing home was an effective predictor before vaccination, but became less predictive after vaccination., Conclusion: As found in our study, the dynamics of the prediction model are frequently changing as the pandemic evolves. County-level infection information and vaccination information are crucial for the success of early COVID-19 prediction models. Our results show that the proposed model can effectively identify SARS-CoV-2 infections during the incubation period. Prospective studies are warranted to explore the application of such prediction models in daily clinical practice., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The authors PK and HZ declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2023 Duan, Li, Ma, Zhang, Lasky, Monaghan, Chaudhuri, Usvyat, Gu, Guo, Kotanko and Wang.)

Patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) are at elevated risk of developing systemic vascular disease and cognitive dysfunction. Here, cerebral oxygen metabolism was assessed in patients with OSA by means of a magnetic resonance-based method involving simultaneous measurements of cerebral blood flow rate and venous oxygen saturation in the superior sagittal sinus for a period of 10 minutes at an effective temporal resolution of 1.3 seconds before, during, and after repeated 24-second breath-holds mimicking spontaneous apneas, yielding, along with pulse oximetry-derived arterial saturation, whole-brain CMRO 2 via Fick's Principle. Enrolled subjects were classified based on their apnea-hypopnea indices into OSA (N = 31) and non-sleep apnea reference subjects (NSA = 21), and further compared with young healthy subjects (YH, N = 10). OSA and NSA subjects were matched for age and body mass index. CMRO 2 was lower in OSA than in the YH group during normal breathing (105.6 ± 14.1 versus 123.7 ± 22.8 μmol O 2 /min/100g, P = 0.01). Further, the fractional change in CMRO 2 in response to a breath-hold challenge was larger in OSA than in the YH group (15.2 ± 9.2 versus 8.5 ± 3.4%, P = 0.04). However, there was no significant difference in CMRO 2 between OSA and NSA subjects. The data suggest altered brain oxygen metabolism in OSA and possibly in NSA as well.