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This paper uses speculative methods as a way of imagining futures for higher education in open, non-predictive ways. The complexity and 'unknowability' of the highly technologised, environmentally damaged and politically degraded futures we seem to be facing can mean that our conversations about the future of higher education have a tendency to spiral too quickly into dystopianism and hopelessness. Speculative methods can help open up new kinds of conversation capable of supporting active and fundamental hope. Working within a postqualitative framework, we argue that such approaches support the collaborative imagining of multiple alternatives, and represent a way of advocating for those that are preferable. The paper presents a series of speculative scenarios and microfictions focusing on worlds ruptured by climate change, artificial intelligence, revolution and the technological enhancement of humans, connecting each of these to current critical research focused on climate crisis, 'big tech', rising global injustice and 'big pharma'. It emphasises the vital contribution and place of higher education within such futures, and advocates for speculative methods as an approach to maintaining hope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines social fiction and academic analysis to envision hopeful futures for higher education. At the heart of the exploration is Phoebe Wagner's speculative fiction piece, University, Speaking, which personifies a university grappling with environmental, political, and social change. Phoebe Wagner's first-person narrative highlights the power of collective voice, the importance of centering community, and the urgent need to cultivate resilience and adaptability. Through analysis of key themes, this paper connects Phoebe Wagner's fictional vision to contemporary research on the multi-faceted and complex challenges facing universities today. By integrating artistic and academic perspectives, this paper discusses new possibilities for universities navigating disruption and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to propose the application of the futures triangle as an organizing device for emplotting future-oriented narrative ecosystems and that the plausibility of a particular future can be explicitly reframed through a storytelling lens as the internal consistency of the story about the future. The paper draws on research on futures and storytelling, as well as the application of the futures triangle in academic and organizational settings beyond the traditional mapping phase of the six pillars. The paper then provides examples of applications of the futures triangle in three case study vignettes, as a method for surveying assumptions of change in narrative systems, audience reception in experiential futures stories or "sparks" and transition design stakeholder persona creation. The paper concludes by arguing that re-employing the futures triangle as an organizing device for contested story systems can support richer and more nuanced narratives about the future to emerge that are both plausible and challenge audiences and stakeholders by maintaining internal consistency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the conceptual, discursive, and political inclination within spatial and social thought towards enacting 'new worlds', 'worlds to come', and 'possible worlds'. Against the backdrop of this diffuse habit, which I refer to as 'worldly futuring', the paper calls attention to the ongoing challenge posed by worldlessness. It asks: what is lost, existentially or politically, in prioritising world‐building over world‐ending? Articulating a response to this question, the paper examines how the investment in future worlds functions, what it secures, and what it indemnifies against. Definitionally, 'world' lacks the ethical designation required to explain its signalling function as a positive horizon of futurity. Worldly futuring instead relies on three connected affirmations: world presents the promise of (meta)stability, of commonality, and of meaning. In prioritising these affirmations, worldly futuring immunises itself against the possibility of their radical absence or violent undoing, thereby working around, against, or sublating the threat of worldlessness. However, building on the scholarship of Derrida on worldless alterity and theorists of black negativity's political calls for the 'end of the world', the central argument of the paper is that working‐away worldlessness is neither inherently possible nor necessarily desirable. Despite any attempt at immunisation, worldlessness haunts any project of worldly futuring, showing us that the assumed connection between world and futurity may well be an obstacle to radical futures. This paper is concerned with the conceptual, discursive, and political inclination within spatial and social thought towards enacting 'new worlds', 'worlds to come', and 'possible worlds'. Against the backdrop of this diffuse habit, I call attention to the ongoing challenge posed by worldlessness. What is lost, existentially or politically, in prioritising world‐building over world‐ending? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I analyze the possibilities for organizing one's personal life around co-residing friendship and roommate relationships in the life course position of adulthood. The normative significance of coupledom and procreation as markers of adulthood has hardly diminished, although the nuclear family model has opened up in past decades in Euro-American countries. I argue that the close connection between coupledom and adult status sidelines communal living as a relational arrangement when persons age beyond the socially shared understanding of youth. Moreover, resisting this temporal order leads communal dwellers into a socially structured negotiation of their future trajectories, where personal autonomy in friendship and roommate relations poses an intra-relational obstacle to building a communal future. The paper is based on 31 interviews with residents of Finnish small-scale communes. Communal dwellers' negotiations of future trajectories dealt with finding someone to build their life with, whether commitment could be expected in friendship and roommate relations, and whether long-term communal living is compatible with existing housing structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue examines how older adults anticipate and manage their futures through migration. Although ageing is often associated with decline towards the end-of-life, it is still a life stage where (the lack of) planning for the future can profoundly impact the life outcomes of older adults and their caregivers. This collection illustrates different ways migration can impact ageing. For some, perceptions and depictions of the future lead older adults to turn to migration to improve their prospects of ageing well although they continue to face constraints while ageing abroad. For others, the migration of younger family members exacerbates the stress of eldercare felt by non-migrant caregivers. Collectively, the papers focus on how countries in Asia function as source and destination sites for ageing-related migration, while also forging transnational connections with the Global North. Focusing on ageing futures allows us to link the current and future lives of migrants and non-migrants, across generations and space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests using two-regime Markov-switching models with asymmetric, time-varying exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MS-EGARCH) variances in random-length lumber futures trading. By assuming a two-regime context (a low s = 1 and high s = 2 volatility), a trading algorithm was simulated with the following trading rule: invest in lumber futures if the probability of being in the high-volatility regime s = 2 is lower or equal to 50%, or invest in the 3-month U.S. Treasury bills (TBills) otherwise. The rationale tested in this paper was that using a two-regime Markov-switching (MS) algorithm leads to an overperformance against a buy-and-hold strategy in lumber futures. To extend the current literature in MS trading algorithms, two location parameter scenarios were simulated. The first uses an unconditional mean or expected value (no factors), and the second incorporates market and behavioral factors. With weekly simulations form 2 January 1994 to 28 July 2023, the results suggest that using MS-EGARCH models in a no-factors scenario is appropriate for active lumber futures trading with an accumulated return of 158.33%. Also, the results suggest that it is not useful to add market and behavioral factors in the MS-GARCH estimation because it leads to a lower performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the 'future' methods literature by exploring the methodological potentials of material methods in qualitative research on young women's imagined futures. Existing research has demonstrated how producing knowledge about imagined futures remains a challenge, often leading to abstract or generic accounts of such futures. Arguing for a double focus on materiality as method and the materiality of methods, this paper extends material methods to innovatively study futures. By considering the narratives about imagined futures generated with and by 'future materials' brought by participants to an interview, the paper demonstrates that this approach is productive for gaining insights that go beyond generic accounts. That is, via the materiality of the objects, specific imagined futures become 'within reach' for participants, with the object serving as an anchor for these future narratives. Empirically the paper draws on data from a longitudinal qualitative study of young women's imagined futures in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how the introduction of foreign exchange futures has an impact on spot volatility and considers the contemporaneous and dynamic relationship between spot volatility and foreign exchange futures trading activity, including trading volume and open interest in the Thailand Futures Exchange context, with the examples of the EUR/USD futures and USD/JPY futures. The results of the EGARCH (1,1) model show that the introduction of foreign exchange futures decreases spot volatility. It also increases the rate at which new information is impounded into spot prices but decreases the persistency of volatility shocks. A positive effect of unexpected trading volume and a negative effect of unexpected open interest on contemporaneous spot volatility are in line with the VAR(1) model results of the dynamic relationship between spot volatility and foreign exchange futures trading activity. With the impact on spot volatility caused by unexpected open interest rate being stronger than by unexpected trading volume, foreign exchange futures trading stabilizes spot volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a problematic tradition of dualistic and reductionist thinking in artificial intelligence (AI) research, which is evident in AI storytelling and imaginations as well as in public debates about AI. Dualistic thinking is based on the assumption of a fixed reality and a hierarchy of power, and it simplifies the complex relationships between humans and machines. This commentary piece argues that we need to work against the grain of such logics and instead develop a thinking that acknowledges AI–human interconnectedness and the complexity in such relations. To learn how to live better with AI in futures to come, the paper suggests an AI politics that turns to practices of serious attentiveness to help us re-imagine our machines and re-configure AI–human relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stories are an important indicator of our vision of the future. In the case of artificial intelligence (AI), dominant stories are polarized between notions of threat and myopic solutionism. The central storytellers—big tech, popular media, and authors of science fiction—represent particular demographics and motivations. Many stories, and storytellers, are missing. This paper details the accounts of missing AI narratives by leading scholars from a range of disciplines interested in AI Futures. Participants focused on the gaps between dominant narratives and the untold stories of the capabilities, issues, and everyday realities of the technology. One participant proposed a "story crisis" in which these narratives compete to shape the public discourse on AI. Our findings indicate that dominant narratives distract and mislead public understandings and conceptions of AI. This suggests a need to pay closer attention to missing AI narratives. It is not simply about telling new stories, it is about listening to existing stories and asking what is wanted from AI. We call for realistic, nuanced, and inclusive stories, working with and for diverse voices, which consider (1) story-teller; (2) genre, and (3) communicative purpose. Such stories can then inspire the next generation of thinkers, technologists, and storytellers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper highlights the lessons drawn from the demise of the Brent Crude Oil futures contract that was traded on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX). We analyze the market microstructure of the contract prior to its failure—specifically, the number of trades, trading volume, open interest, bid–ask spread, and volatility. We find a steady decline in the mean volume, open interest, and number of trades as the contracts near their demise. The bid–ask spread of the contract also widens. Investigations of the mutual offset feature of the Brent Crude Oil futures contract between SGX and the International Commodity Exchange (ICE) provides evidence that trading volume, open interest, and the number of trades increase significantly during 4:00–5:45 PM local time when mutual offset is available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to examine whether good asset allocation by a CEO leads to superior stock returns and, if so, how one might be able to identify CEOs that are good asset allocators. Employing US data from May 2001 to April 2019, we find that CEOs that invest the company's cash flows according to a value-investing style seem to outperform companies that do not. We find that high goodwill to assets and high operating margin (good asset allocator) companies outperform companies with high or low goodwill to assets and low operating margin (poor asset allocator) companies. The findings are corroborated with out-of-sample (May 2019–April 2023) robustness tests. When buying other businesses, value investor CEOs ensure that their consolidated operating margins remain high, as opposed to other firms managed by poor asset allocator CEOs who buy businesses that bring down operating margins, either because they overpay or due to an inability to materialize expected synergies. Using both summary statistics and regression analysis, the findings of this study help us identify companies that allocate assets like value investors and enable us to anticipate future stock performance. For example, if a company, on average, has a goodwill/assets ratio of 41.03%, and an operating margin of 21.38%, it is likely this firm would be at the top quartile in terms of stock return performance over at least the next three years. At the same time, if a firm has a low average goodwill/assets ratio (i.e., 1.95%), its operating margins, on average, should be 24.46%, if it wants to achieve a similar performance as that of firms with high goodwill/assets. Moreover, the future stock return predictability of high (low) goodwill/assets and high (low) operating margin firms, found in this study, can help an investor develop trading strategies that can lead to superior stock price performance by effectively taking long positions in (shorting) firms that are (not) managed by value investor CEOs. Finally, the paper's findings can also help investors in another way. For example, investors tend to be skeptical about companies with high goodwill/assets. The rule of thumb is to beware of companies carrying goodwill on their balance sheets that is more than 25% of assets. Based on our findings, this should not be a problem as long as the company's operating margin has remained high and is rising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of embedded location options on Indian agricultural commodity futures returns has not been investigated systematically, despite the available anecdotal evidence suggestive of significant impact. Any significant impact on futures returns translates directly to an impact on hedging effectiveness of the futures. This paper investigates whether the addition of a return term due to the location option helps in explaining futures returns better relative to cash market and storage returns alone for the Chana contract when using regression analysis. Relative importance analysis is used to assess the relative contributions of regressors, and regression coefficients are tested for significance. It is found that the adjusted coefficient of determination improves significantly on adding location option returns as a regressor, and its regression coefficient is significant for the majority of the contracts studied. Relative importance analysis of the regressors shows that location option, on average, accounts for 28% of the explained variability of excess futures. These results suggest that location option impacts futures prices and returns significantly and is a key reason for the poor hedging effectiveness of Indian agricultural commodity futures. These results guide exchanges, regulators and policymakers to reduce the impact of embedded location options by optimizing contract delivery specifications to make futures contracts more useful to hedgers such as farmer producer organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between trading activity and returns volatility in white maize futures listed on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) and investigates the impact of speculative activity on volatility. Returns volatility is estimated using a GARCH (1,1) model. Trading activity changes are observed by computing two negatively correlated ratios from daily trading volume and open interest. The dynamic relationship between volatility and trading activity is explored over the period April 2000 to May 2022 using a vector autoregressive framework. The paper examines not only the Granger-causality between speculative and hedging ratios and volatility but also assesses their interactions through variance decomposition and impulse response functions. The first ratio, of volume to open interest, is used to capture speculative market activity; and the second, a ratio of the change in open interest to volume, is used to reflect the activity of hedgers. The results shed light on the effectiveness of targeting speculators for regulation in grain futures markets, while also contributing to the veracity of price limits in effectively moderating volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequent price volatility in China's agricultural futures market has aroused concern about price bubbles in the agricultural futures market. This paper analyzes the characteristics of price bubbles in China's agricultural futures market by using data from nine active agricultural commodities futures and the Nanhua agricultural price index. The empirical results show that only soybean futures, sugar futures, cotton futures, and the Nanhua agricultural price index exist price bubbles. The duration of price bubble accounts for 2.5–6.2% of the whole sample interval. Moreover, combined with China's agricultural policy, this paper finds that after 2014, China's policy reform from the "yellow box" policy to the "green box" policy and the "blue box" policy can inhibit price bubbles of agricultural futures market to a certain extent. Additionally, the higher the dependence on the international market, the higher the risk of price bubbles in the agricultural futures market. Besides, agricultural futures are more prone to price bubbles with long duration and large price change during the agricultural crisis (soybean and cotton experienced price bubbles from 2007 to 2008 and 2010 to 2011, respectively). The findings of this paper have important policy implications for policy-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Skewness, as a proxy for extreme risks or losses, deserves more attention from risk management work of portfolio selection and futures hedging. We evaluate the hedging performance of strategies considering the skewness for two major benchmark international crude oil markets, Brent and WTI, with sample period ranging from June 11, 2018, to May 19, 2021. This paper contributes to the literature by accounting for futures basis and the skewness of the hedged portfolio return. Specifically, we first extend the existing literature of Lien (2010), whose study investigated the effect of skewness on optimal production and hedging decisions, to the case of a futures bias existing. Then, we propose minimum-risk hedging models wherein the return of the hedged portfolio return is assumed to follow a skew-normal distribution, which is a generalization of normality assumption. From the empirical results, we find that skewness cannot be ignored, otherwise it will lead to wrong hedging decision. Furthermore, hedging strategies under skew-normal distribution are outperformed than that under the normal distribution assumption. The research results of this paper have important implications for investors and decision makers to hedge the price risk of crude oil in extreme market conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue invites reflection on digital forms of resource extractivism, through thinking-with microbes, fish, smart energy, and human bodies. We examine the confluence of infrastructure building, public good enactment, and nature datafication to account for novel forms of resource economies. The articles in this collection empirically investigate the various ways in which nature is turned into resource in laboratory and experimental sites including database retrievals and data mining. Our empirical cases, ranging from biodiversity prospecting, clinical biobanking to the digitalized electric grid and from digital fish to biodigital transformations in yeast technology, offer insights into the nexus of data, economy, nature, and information. Contributing to the literature on datafication of natural resources, these studies re-situate information infrastructures and biodigital extractions as part of emerging info-economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the connectedness between gold, wheat, and crude oil futures, Bitcoin, carbon emission futures, and international stock markets in the G7, BRICS, and Gulf regions with the outbreak of exogenous and unexpected shocks related to health, banking, and political crises. To this end, we use a wavelet-based method on the returns of different assets during the period 2 January 2019, to 21 April 2023. The empirical findings show that the existence of time-varying linkages between markets is well documented and appears stronger during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it seems to diminish for some associations with the advent of the Russia-Ukraine War. The empirical results also show that investor risk perceptions measured by the VIX are negatively and substantially linked to stock markets in different regions. Other interesting findings emerge from the connectedness analysis with the outbreak of Silicon Valley bankruptcy. In particular, Bitcoin tends to regain its role as a safe-haven asset against some G7 stock markets during the bank crisis. Such findings can provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers concerning the relationship between different markets during different crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The volatility spill-over effect of the commodity futures markets has been a matter of debate ever since the establishment of futures markets in India. The apprehensions regarding the price destabilizing role of futures trade called for overcautious regulatory supervision. The actions like suspension of contracts, bans on futures trade in certain commodities, and restrictions on trade volumes were very frequent; making the growth of the commodity futures market a chequered one. The Expert Committee appointed in 2007 to examine the effect of futures trade on commodity prices failed to make any categorical remark partly on account of the absence of long-term data. A commodity-specific analysis is much warranted as the price effect of the futures trade varies across the markets. The paper examined the volatility spill-over effect of the rubber futures market using a bivariate GARCH model with BEKK parameterization and found that there is no positive volatility spill-over from futures to spot. The weak linkage between futures trade and futures price variation further strengthens the finding. The absence of volatility spill-over from futures to spot in the case of rubber is due to the failure of the futures market to lead the spot market in pricing the commodity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare the changes in the risk spillover effects between the copper spot and futures markets before and after the issuance of copper options, analyze the risk spillover effects between the three markets after the issuance of the options and can provide effective suggestions for regulators and investors who hedge risks. Design/methodology/approach: The MV-CAViaR model is an extended form of the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to the quantile model, and it is also a special form of the MVMQ-CAViaR model. Based on the VAR quantile model, this model has undergone continuous promotion of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (CAViaR) and the Multi-quantile Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (MQ-CAViaR), and finally got the current form of the model. Findings: The issuance of options has led to certain changes in the risk spillover effect between the copper spot and its derivative markets, and the risk aggregation effect in the futures market has always been significant. Therefore, when supervising the copper product market and investors using copper derivatives to avoid market risks, they need to pay attention to the impact of futures on the spot market, the impact of options on the futures market and the risk spillover effects of spot and futures on the options market. Practical implications: The empirical results of this paper can be used to hedge market risk investment strategies, and the changes in market relationships also provide an effective basis for the supervision of the copper product market by the supervisory authority. Originality/value: It is the first literature research to discuss the risk and the impact of spillover effects of copper options on China copper market and its derivative markets. The MV-CAViaR model can capture the mutual risk influence between markets by modeling multiple markets simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a world facing climate crisis, a growing divide between rich and poor, racial strife, and a rise of xenophobic populism, social studies educators are obligated to investigate social issues in ways that might lead toward more just, less-destructive futures. This paper theorizes a new materialist social studies curriculum—a curriculum attentive to matter, nonhuman species, and anthropocentric representations of nature and the environment—with the aim of uncovering alternative inquiries and responsibilities that might help us flourish as teachers, students, and citizens. Throughout this paper, we argue that a new materialist lens can reconfigure and enliven social studies curriculum, and our corresponding analysis centers on particular events and concepts in the Michigan K-12 Social Studies Standards, considering how prevalent, normative representations reify damaging ways of being and knowing. This paper contributes to ongoing discourses regarding the boundaries, topics, and events that ought to comprise social studies curriculum, and we conclude by speculating new ethical futures for our field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that international portfolios reflect the underlying heterogeneity in investors' beliefs. Using data on the foreign sovereign debt holdings of European banks matched with their forecasts on future bond yields, we find that expecting higher returns and having more accurate forecasts are associated with larger bond holdings. Crucially, the elasticity of portfolio holdings to expected returns is increasing in the precision of the forecast, implying that investors optimally exploit comparative advantages in information production. We rationalize the results in a model in which partial information specialization arises endogenously by introducing a degree of unlearnable uncertainty about asset payoffs. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we draw on the outcomes of a place-based scenario planning project in Melbourne's (AUSTRALIA) inner northern suburbs that was titled COVID-19 Recovery Scenarios for Young People in Melbourne's Inner North. As part of that project, we conducted video interviews with 53 young people during what became an extended second lockdown period in Melbourne as the city dealt with a resurgence in COVID infections. In this paper, we present the stories of three young people – Rosie, Ash and Astrid – that are illustrative and inclusive of the uncertainties and hopes that young people in Melbourne's inner north gave voice to. We situate these young people's stories in what Rosi Braidotti (2019) has identified as the convergence of the fourth industrial revolution and the sixth mass extinction. Our aim is to situate the pandemic, the social, cultural, economic and political responses to the pandemic, and the challenges and opportunities that this public health crisis produces for young people's health and well-being, their education, training and employment pathways, and their sense of belonging, connectedness, even community, in the broader, unfolding crises of global capitalism, of earth systems, and of biodiversity that is heralded by the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the concept of the 'roll yield' and its impact on the performance of ETFs that invest in futures contracts of storable commodities. It argues that comparing the returns of a futures position to the returns of a spot position can be quite misleading. As a case study, it examines the returns of the USO exchange traded fund whose investment objective is to mimic the performance of WTI prices using futures contracts. A simple regression model shows that the significant underperformance of the USO fund relative to WTI spot prices has been caused by the prolonged contango market and the steep WTI futures curve in the post-2009 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Clegg–Krauss framework, this paper first examines a partial cointegration relationship between stock index futures and VIX futures prices and then constructs a hedging strategy based upon this relationship. This paper argues that the stock index futures and the VIX futures are both affected by unobservable investor sentiment and thus the price series should be modelled by the partial cointegration relationship. Our empirical results validate a partial cointegration relationship between stock index and VIX futures prices. Based upon the partial cointegration relationship between stock index futures and VIX futures prices, we demonstrate that the proposed strategy outperforms conventional strategies, e.g., OLS , VAR , and VECM , in terms of tail risk reduction and expected utility, especially when the length of the hedge horizon increases. In addition, the partial cointegration-based strategy becomes more dominant when the stock index futures price is near its historical high. Overall, our empirical evidence of the hedging effectiveness for different hedge horizons and market timing with VIX futures provides valuable information for practitioners in risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 1-min data, we explore the dynamic variation of the intraday lead–lag relations between stock indices and their derivatives through a comprehensive study with broader coverage of research objectives and methodologies. This paper provides explicit evidence that the futures and options exhibit price leadership over the spot market, and the options is ahead of the futures on most trading days in all three markets. This paper also reports a new finding that the relation between the derivative and its underlying index reverses when the index return has a significantly larger mean value, and the reversal phenomenon is also observed in the relations between the futures and the options, which enriches the empirical results of intraday lead–lag relations. Moreover, these conclusions still hold under the impact of extreme events, e.g., the outbreak of the Covid-19. Finally, we construct a pair trading strategy based on the intraday lead–lag relationships, which can get better performance than the corresponding spot index. Our findings can potentially help regulators understand the price discovery process between the index and its derivatives, and also be of great value for timely adjustment of investors intraday trading strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the volatility spillover between the soybean futures contracts traded in the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and China Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) through a normalized Copula – GARCH(1,1) - t model with structural changes. The structural change points are identified through a combination of Bayesian diagnosis with Z-test. The study finds that the volatility spillover exists between the DCE and CBOT soybean futures and weakens through time. We further identify seven structural change points in the volatility spillover relationship, suggesting it is going through significant structural changes. The changes are related to major social-political events including the trade conflict between China and the US, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a minimum-variance portfolio of six agricultural futures. We make a full sample analysis as well as a pre-COVID and COVID examination. Using Markowitz portfolio optimisation, we find that soybean futures have the highest share (31%) in the full sample portfolio because it has the lowest variance. Both soybean oil and rice futures have the second highest weight in the full sample portfolio, in an amount of 24%, because soybean oil has the second lowest variance, whereas rice has, by far, the lowest average correlation with other agricultural futures. Soybean oil has the highest share of 35% in the pre-COVID period, whereas rice follows with 27%. On the other hand, in the COVID period, soybean has a very high share in an amount of 47% due to the lowest risk, while rice takes second place with 19%. Based on the results, investors should invest the most in soybean oil and rice in tranquil periods, while the choice should be soybean and rice in crisis periods. Rice is the choice in both sub-periods because rice has a very low correlation with other agricultural commodities, which happens due to the price stabilisation of rice that is often conducted by Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the field of climate change adaptation, the future matters. River futures influence the way adaptation projects are implemented in rivers. In this paper, we challenge the ways in which dominant paradigms and expert claims monopolise the truth concerning policies and designs of river futures, thereby sidelining and delegitimising alternative river futures. So far, limited work has been performed on the power of river futures in the context of climate change adaptation. We conceptualised the power of river futures through river imaginaries, i.e., collectively performed and publicly envisioned reproductions of riverine socionatures mobilised through truth claims of social life and order. Using the Border Meuse project as a case study, a climate change adaptation project in a stretch of the river Meuse in the south of the Netherlands, and a proclaimed success story of climate adaptation in Dutch water management, we elucidated how three river imaginaries (a modern river imaginary, a market-driven imaginary, and an eco-centric river imaginary) merged into an eco-modern river imaginary. Importantly, not only did the river futures merge, but their aligned truth regimes also merged. Thus, we argue that George Orwell's famous quote, "who controls the past, controls the future: who controls the present, controls the past" can be extended to "who controls the future, controls how we see and act in the present, and how we rediscover the past". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the leverage effects and the spillover effects in the base metal cash and futures market. The study also attempts to find the trend and the pattern of volatility clustering in the base metal markets of India. Further, the significance of the risk premium and the possible downside risk of the market are also examined. The study confirms that unlike aluminium futures market, leverage effect is found for copper futures traded at MCX, India. Similar to aluminium, it is evident that the market advances generate larger volatility than the market turbulence in the cash and futures market of nickel. The study finds that the variance term () is not statistically significant for both cash and futures markets, which indicates that the risk premium of the asset is not significant to hedge. Further, unlike copper and aluminium, short-run volatility spillover is absent from the futures to the cash market of nickel. The paper concludes that the long-run volatility shock of futures has a persistent effect on the cash market of aluminium, copper and nickel and vice-versa. Future research might address the crossvolatility spillover between the base metal futures market. Further, the spillover between the Indian and London base metal futures markets is left for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate for symmetries – in sign and size – between spot and futures prices in the markets of energy commodities. Design/methodology/approach: The aforementioned objective is pursued using daily observations of spot and futures prices for the commodities of crude oil, Brent, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas, along with local nonlinear regression. Findings: Symmetry in sign and size cannot be rejected. This means that, shocks of the same absolute magnitude, but of different sign, are transmitted from futures prices to spot prices with the same intensity. In addition, larger absolute value price shocks in the futures are transmitted to the spot markets with the same intensity compared with smaller ones. The findings of symmetry in the comovements among prices reveal a lack of those commodities on diversifying the investors' investment risk. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to use local nonlinear regression to test for sign and size symmetry between futures and spot prices in the energy commodities markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the time-varying lead-lag relationship between CSI 300 index futures and the cash index at intraday and daily frequencies under different market conditions, which is crucial in the price discovery research but rarely examined by the literature. Using a new method that is based on dynamic time warping and can capture the dynamic lead-lag relationship up to the intraday level, we find that index futures tend to lead the cash index by 0–5 minutes but it occasionally lags the cash index, and this relationship is variably affected by factors according to market conditions. Specifically, at both of the intraday and daily frequencies, the lead of index futures decreases with market volatility and the relative intensity of trading activity of index futures. The results also unveil the asymmetric effects of overnight information from the cash market on the lead times of both index futures and the cash index at a daily frequency. Moreover, the synchronization of trading hours strengthened the link between the two markets. These results have significant implications for price discovery in these markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future of work is constantly evolving and changing, making it increasingly challenging for businesses to anticipate and respond to these changes. Strategic foresight, the process of systematically exploring the future to identify and understand potential opportunities and threats, has become an essential tool for organisations that want to remain competitive and adapt to the changing nature of work. This paper focuses on the futures triangle tool, a widely used strategic foresight tool, and provides examples of how it can be used by organisations to prepare for the future of work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper endeavours to explore and analyse some critical issues in the oil and gas market that cropped up around the spread of COVID-19 and tries to identify the key drivers and triggers pertaining therewith. The spread of the first wave that began in March 2020 is crucial because of the global economic downturn that ensued due to lockdown and imposed restrictions coupled with a protracted oil price war that began between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The paper tries to address some key research questions to understand the triggers and drivers around the pandemic. These are: (1) whether the behaviour of OPEC or its key players around the pandemic could be considered uniquely different; (2) what could the triggers be for the increased volatilities that cropped up in both physical and financial markets during the pandemic; (3) what was really different about the oil market crisis around the pandemic that transformed it to an unprecedented storage crisis; (4) what really went wrong with the much-hyped U.S. shale boom during the pandemic that led to the bankruptcy of several oil and gas companies, followed by huge job losses. The paper relies on a structured review of relevant secondary literature to address these exploratory questions and builds upon a retrospective rumination on the world oil market from 1960 to 2020. This is complemented by an analysis of supporting data and evidence obtained from various sources. Considering the intertwining of oil and financial markets around the pandemic, the lessons and findings from the paper would not only be highly relevant for policymakers and stakeholders in the oil and gas sector but would be equally relevant for those in the financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper critically discusses the combination of creative and social research methods to generate a novel approach to explore the multimodal technoscape. This paper draws on an interdisciplinary exploratory case study on interactive skin—an emergent technology that augments and/or interacts with the skin. This paper shows how concepts from skin studies and the HCI literature can be used to draw on creative methods to think about and with the body. We describe the use of an online probe pack, a speculative research workshop and sensory research interviews using 'proxy feelers' to agitate the design space of interactive skin futures. We show how combining these methods provoked and expanded the scope of interactive skin from the technological to the sensory and the social. We discuss the opportunities and challenges of the research dialogues that this approach facilitated, make the case for creative methodological improvisation and exploration of emergent technologies and show how creative and social research methods can be combined to explore the interconnection between technology, society and design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global car ownership and usage have grown rapidly for several decades now and these trends look set to continue. For car users, the increased mobility afforded by the automobility system is largely welcomed despite the significant externalities produced. The windscreen is one location where controls on automobility are affixed by using artefacts such as paper discs, decals, stickers or digital devices. These artefacts, in turn, have significant meanings and symbolism on how users relate to their vehicles and how others attempt to control car ownership and use. The aim of this paper is to examine how ownership and use are controlled currently, and to speculate on how they might be mapped in the future through a catalogue of windscreen-mounted artefacts. The artefacts have been sourced globally and were arranged according to the "type" of control they were exerting. Artefact classification analysis shows that public policy instruments can be categorised according to informational, regulatory or economic control; the aspect being targeted; and the frequency and longevity of these interventions. Categories include agents and the focus of action through which a policy instrument is applied. Future trajectories are explored with respect to the role of clutter and the windscreen itself as morphing during possible shifts towards a paradigm of smarter mobility emphasising the importance of usership (not ownership), increasing digitalisation, increasing intelligence, less carbon intensity/electrification and finally automation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread and growth of ubiquitous smart technology to deliver public health outcomes, particularly within/at home, urgently requires greater scholarly attention. This paper uses data from interviews with professionals in Scotland who are designing and implementing Technology‐Enabled Care (TEC) for current and future homes. Theoretically informed by both critical geographies of home and futures scholarship, this paper presents a three‐part framework – "homes‐that‐are," "homes‐that‐ought," and "homes‐to‐be" – to explore the techno‐solutionist accounts of home, bringing to bear the messiness and complexity of home, both its conceptualisation and experience. It highlights prediction as an emerging form of anticipatory practice, generating new questions and conceptualisations about the openness of futures. Moreover, it demonstrates the importance of understanding the underlying assumptions of those who make decisions when planning for future TEC and housing; about who they imagine they are planning for, and how diverse these futures are. This paper presents a three‐part framework – "homes‐that‐are," "homes‐that‐ought," and "homes‐to‐be" – to explore the techno‐solutionist accounts of home, bringing to bear the messiness and complexity of home, both its conceptualisation and experience. Using data from interviews with professionals in Scotland who are designing and implementing Technology‐Enabled Care (TEC) for current and future homes, it highlights prediction as an emerging form of anticipatory practice, generating new questions on the openness of futures. It also demonstrates the importance of understanding underlying assumptions of those who make decisions when planning for future TEC and housing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 2 decades, it has become increasingly evident that incremental adaptation to global environmental challenges—particularly climate change—no longer suffices. To make matters worse, systemic problems such as social inequity and unsustainable use of resources prove to be persistent. These challenges call for, such is the rationale, significant and radical systemic changes that challenge incumbent structures. Remarkably, scholarship on sustainability transformations has only engaged with the role of power dynamics and shifts in a limited fashion. This paper responds to a need for methods that support the creation of imaginative transformation pathways while attending to the roles that power shifts play in transformations. To do this, we extended the "Seeds of Good Anthropocenes" approach, incorporating questions derived from scholarship on power into the methodology. Our 'Disruptive Seeds' approach focuses on niche practices that actively challenge unsustainable incumbent actors and institutions. We tested this novel approach in a series of participatory pilot workshops. Generally, the approach shows great potential as it facilitates explicit discussion about the way power shifts may unfold in transformations. It is a strong example of the value of mixing disciplinary perspectives to create new forms of scenario thinking—following the call for more integrated work on anticipatory governance that combines futures thinking with social and political science research into governance and power. Specifically, the questions about power shifts in transformations used in this paper to adapt the Seeds approach can also be used to adapt other future methods that similarly lack a focus on power shifts—for instance, explorative scenarios, classic back-casting approaches, and simulation gaming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper study the exposure of Dow Jones Islamic equity indices to global risk factors while considering both effects of speculative influence and fundamental changes. The study involves future markets according to Shari'a guidelines that ban speculative trading. Nonlinear ARDL modelling approach along with dynamic asymmetric causality tests is conducted to scrutinize long‐run and short‐run asymmetries and asymmetric causalities. The used data are crude refined oil future prices to stand for fundamental chocks in speculative trading and implied volatility index to stand for speculative pressure. Obtained results approve the presence of asymmetric cointegration between Islamic equity indices and oil‐VIX future prices. The Islamic indices are sensitive to oil‐VIX future chocks both in the long run and the short run. Asymmetric causality tests indicate the existence of asymmetric causality running from crude refined oil future prices which confirm the fundamental contagion effects but the causality from VIX to Islamic indices is not pronounced at all. Results support the absence of speculative influence on Islamic indices and prove that DJIM indices corroborate with Shari'a compliant rules. In sum, the paper confirms the asymmetric cointegration and then assumes that the asymmetry is present in Islamic equity indices inherent to changes in international futures prices. The paper shows the structure of exposure to global markets' expectations and provides faith‐based investors with insights about the attitude of Islamic indices towards the future. Our findings suggest useful highlights to policymakers, portfolio managers, faith‐based investors and scholars. We then could state that if long‐run relationship occurs it is naturally asymmetrical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate how different emotions affect the subsequent index futures returns. We test the forecasting regressions which predict the S&P 500 index futures returns with lagged text‐based emotion (anger, joy, fear, optimism, and gloom) indices and find asymmetric forecasting power exists between pessimism and optimism emotion indices. We show that only the text‐based anger index could reliably perform at predicting index futures return in‐sample and outperform the prevailing unconditional mean out‐of‐sample. Notably, the predictive power of the text‐based anger index persists after controlling for other emotion indices, investor sentiment indices, and fundamental variables known to predict the futures market. And the asset allocation conditioning on text‐based anger index can generate substantial economic benefits. Furthermore, the anger index influences the index futures return through both the discount rate and cash flow channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The paper aims to explore the informational role of futures volume in the simultaneous relationship between option volume and spot volatility to forecast the volatility of the underlying asset. Design/methodology/approach: The generalized method of moments is used to estimate the simultaneous equations of endogeneity between spot volatility and option volume. Futures volume is specified as an exogenous variable in both legs of the estimation of simultaneous equations. However, the future volume is also tested as a dependent variable to prove preference for investment by informed investors in futures along with options. Findings: The result indicates that futures volume has a significant association with the bi-directional simultaneous equation estimation between spot volatility and option volume. Moreover, the result of this paper proves that informed investors also prefer futures markets over the spot market. However, there is no change observed in the relationship between option volume and spot volatility due to either call or put options or moneyness. Originality/value: The possible role of futures volume in the simultaneous equations between spot volatility and option volume has not yet been researched. This paper pioneers in demonstrating that futures volume is an exogenous variable in the simultaneous equation modeling between spot volatility and option volume. Moreover, in the contemporaneous as well as predictive relationships between spot volatility and option volume, futures volume as an exogenous variable is significant in forecasting spot volatility. In addition to this, the current paper uniquely provides evidence of investment in futures also over the spot market by informed investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]