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As the energy demand of public building (PB) in China continues to increase, it is meaningful for forecasting the future trend of carbon emissions (CE) of PB. This study analyzes the drivers of CE that affect the operational stage of PB in China by the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM), which considers the effect of the output value and structural transformation of the tertiary industry and makes a scenario prediction of the future carbon-neutral trajectory of CE in PB under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the added value of the tertiary industry (AVTI) is the strongest positive driver of CE from PB (31.912% of the total contribution), which correspond to a cumulative contribution of 212.3 million tons (MtCO 2) in 11 years. Regulating the CE per unit of the AVTI is the key indicator in reducing CE from PB, with a cumulative reduction of 130.1 MtCO 2. The results of the five scenarios under the SSP framework differ significantly, with SSP1 peaking first in 2026 at 884.5 MtCO 2 (876.2–893.9 MtCO 2) and SSP5 peaking latest in 2049 at 1372.3 MtCO 2 (1362-1389.7 MtCO 2). SSP1 yielded the smallest projection in 2060 with 189.8 MtCO 2 (185.4–194.3 MtCO 2). The findings could help public buildings to implement carbon reduction and provide more scientific and rational decision support for possible paths to achieve carbon neutrality in China. • Projection of carbon emission changes in China's public building operation phase to 2060. • The GDIM which considers the added value of the tertiary industry and industrial transformation factors are employed. • Added value of tertiary industry is essential to the change of carbon emissions. • Carbon emissions of public buildings peak first in 2026 and are lowest in 2060 under the SSP1 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decarbonization of China's central heating (CH) is important for reaching China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goal. However, unclear CO 2 emissions from CH of each city and their disparity hinder the formulation of targeted decarbonization strategies. To solve these issues, this study quantifies the CO 2 emissions from CH in 137 cities during the period of 2006–2019 and introduces the Kaya identity and Theil index to investigate the disparity in the per capita CO 2 emissions from CH. The results indicate that 1) China's CH CO 2 emissions increased to 435.53 MtCO 2 in 2019. Residential and public and commercial (P&C) buildings accounted for 74.18% and 25.82%, respectively. 2) The cities with the largest CH CO 2 emissions of all (22.58 MtCO2), residential (16.33 MtCO 2), and P&C buildings (6.86 MtCO 2) were Harbin, Shenyang and Harbin, respectively. 3) The Theil index for all buildings decreased to 0.44 in 2019, and P&C buildings had the largest disparity. 4) The central heating penetration rate was the major positive contributor to the disparity of residential and P&C buildings, contributing more than 40%. In summary, at the city level, this study offers a comprehensive investigation of the CO 2 emissions from CH and benefits the formulation of specific decarbonization strategies. [Display omitted] • The CO 2 emissions from China's central heating (CH) are quantified at the city level. • The Theil index was employed to determine the disparity of per capita CO 2 emissions from CH. • Residential buildings have a larger disparity than public and commercial (P&C) buildings. • The CH penetration rate was the major positive contributor to the disparity. • Eliminating the disparity can reduce CO 2 emissions of China's CH by 6.92% -77.74%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equitable and effective allocation of provincial carbon allowances is the key to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets and addressing the prominent issue of resource and environmental constraints, while reasonable coupling of equity and efficiency is its prerequisite. The study first assessed the effectiveness of the mainstream allocation methods when applied to the building sector. Then, Monte Carlo simulation is used to properly couple the principles of equity and efficiency in the process of carbon allowance allocation in the building sector, and on this basis, a novel Allocation method of Regional Carbon Allowance in Building sector (ARCAB) is constructed to provide an inter-provincial allocation scheme of building carbon emission allowances in 2030 for China. The results show that the mainstream allocation methods are not applicable to the building sector, and their allocation results often appear the phenomenon of "low-hanging fruit" or "high-hanging fruit". In addition, the coupling degree of equity-efficiency is 12% in China's 2030 allocation scheme, indicating that provincial governments should formulate more stringent carbon reduction policies to achieve this goal. The proposed ARCAB and our findings can assist decision-makers to formulate reasonable carbon allowances and differentiated emission-reduction strategies and will be of national and global significance. • Propose the criteria to judge the effectiveness of building carbon allowances. • Mainstream carbon allowance allocation methods do not apply to the building sector. • Propose an Allocation method of Regional Carbon Allowance in Building sector (ARCAB). • Focus on carbon reduction in commercial buildings in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Establishes an integrated dynamic emission assessment model by coupling end-use energy model and system dynamics model. • Explores the dynamic interaction mechanism between macrolevel and microlevel factors as well as technical options. • Commercial buildings will probably hit the emission peak at 1.28Gt CO 2 in 2037 under the BAU scenario. • Lighting and cooling will contribute over 70% to the carbon emission growth. • Technological progress, clean energy, and electrification rate play significant roles in boosting emission peak and peaking time. Carbon-mitigation in the commercial building sector is critical to carbon peaking and carbon neutral commitment. However, there has been little scientific focus on long-term evolutionary trajectories and peak path in this sector. This study innovatively develops an integrated dynamic emission assessment model (IDEAM) by combining the system dynamics model with the bottom-up end-use energy model. Moreover, the IDEAM is combined with the scenario analysis approach to model the dynamic evolution of Chinese commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060. The results show that commercial building carbon emissions will peak at 1.28 Gigatons (Gt) of CO 2 in 2037 under the baseline scenario and will advance toward 2029 with an emissions peak of 0.98 Gt CO 2 under the low-carbon scenario. Cooling and lighting are the two end-uses that contribute most to the growth of carbon emissions at over 70%. These two end-uses indicate different carbon-abatement potentials across climate zones. Sensitivity analysis reveals that promoting technological progress, increasing the share of clean energy, and improving low-carbon awareness are major ways to facilitate the early realization of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. This study provides a deeper understanding of possible emission pathways and could assist policy-makers in devising scientific carbon mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contributions of different end-use activities to carbon intensity changes in global commercial building operations in (a) 2000–2010 and (c) 2010–2019; (b) impacts of different end-use activities on decarbonizing the operational carbon intensity across different countries in 2000–2019. [Display omitted] • The carbon intensity of commercial building operations in 16 economies declined 1.9 % yr−1 in 2000–2019. • Emission factors and industrial structure were the key to decarbonizing the building operations. • Energy intensity (e.g., heating: −14.3 kgCO 2 /m2/yr) has pushed global decarbonization since the 2010 s. • Decarbonization level in 16 economies was 230.3 MtCO 2 /yr with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.1%; • Electricity decarbonization will be critical to achieving global carbon neutrality in commercial buildings. Building operations will be the most critical step in completing the "last mile" of global carbon neutrality. To seek the best practical path to decarbonize commercial building operations, this study assesses the decarbonization progress of commercial building operations in 16 countries over the last two decades considering socioeconomic, technical, climatic and end-use factors through the decomposing structural decomposition method. The results reveal that (1) the average carbon intensity of commercial building operations in 16 countries has maintained an annual decline of 1.94% throughout the period 2000–2019, and emission factors and industrial structures were generally the key to decarbonizing commercial building operations; (2) energy intensity effects have started to promote global decarbonization in commercial building operations since 2010, with contributions from space heating [-14.33 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter per year (kgCO 2 /m2/yr)], service lighting (-5.29 kgCO 2 /m2/yr), appliances and others (-2.85 kgCO 2 /m2/yr), and space cooling (-1.24 kgCO 2 /m2/yr); and (3) the total decarbonization of commercial building operations worldwide was 230.28 mega-tons of carbon dioxide per yr, with a decarbonization efficiency of 10.05% in 2001–2019. Moreover, the robustness of this decarbonization assessment is tested using the typical index decomposition analysis and the decarbonization strategies of global commercial building operations are reviewed. Overall, this study assesses the global historical progress in decarbonizing commercial building operations and closes the relevant gap, and it helps plan the stepwise carbon neutral pathway of future global buildings by the mid-century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(a–f) Changes of carbon reductions of commercial building operations at the provincial level and (g) the difference with the nation-based results (2001–2016). [Display omitted] • Provincial carbon intensity of commercial building operations grew 2.88 % yr−1 in 2001–2016. • Northeast and north China mitigated the most in carbon intensity and emissions, respectively. • Southwest China showed the highest ratio of carbon reductions to carbon emissions at 29.53%. • The total reduction of China's commercial building operation was 1.38 GtCO 2 in 2001–2016. • Annual provincial reductions peaked in 2013, one year earlier than the national result. The growing energy consumption in commercial building operations has slowed the pace of carbon reduction in the building sector, which has hindered China's movement towards peaking emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by mid-century. Considering the technical, socio-economic, climatic, and behavioral factors, this study evaluates the carbon reduction changes of commercial building operations in China's 30 provinces during the period 2001–2016. An assessment framework of the reduction intensity, amount, and efficiency has been built by carbon intensity decomposition. It shows that (1) the average provincial carbon intensity of commercial building operations kept rising by 2.88% per year from 2000 to 2016; (2) provinces of northeast and north China, respectively, took the lead in reduction intensity and amount at 17.09 kg of carbon dioxide per square meter and 73.79 megatonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2) from 2001 to 2016. Meanwhile, the greatest efficiency of carbon reduction was seen in provinces of southwest China with the highest reductions-emissions ratio being 29.53%; (3) compared to the national level results, the annual carbon reductions based on provincial units hit their peak one year earlier at 167.35 MtCO 2 in 2013, although similar emission drivers have been observed. Moreover, effective practices by local governments have been summarized for energy efficiency promotion in commercial building operations. Overall, this study makes a reference for other economies to assess the historical carbon reduction in the building operation, which provides policymakers with insights into balanced and targeted emission reduction strategies towards a low-carbon transition in commercial building sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]