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Small island states are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite not contributing much to global greenhouse gas emissions. Crafting effective science-based adaptive strategies to conserve and sustain natural resources in the face of the changing climate has important socio-economic, political, and ecological dimensions. The analysis in the current paper reveals that the island of Mauritius has been warming at a rate of 0.0216 °C/year over the period 1971–2020, with an increase in precipitation averaging 2.29 mm/year over the 1981–2020 period. The changing climate over time has had severe repercussions on the native ecosystems of the island and is threatening the long-term freshwater supply system. Science-based policy measures proposed revolve around the expansion and re-design of protected areas to be strategically located in climate-resilient regions that seek to offer refuge to native fauna and flora. To increase the resilience on freshwater supply on the island, measures proposed include the introduction of a freshwater coordination-based system that operates on water stress level, in addition to increasing the network of freshwater catchment areas in regions where precipitation is increasing over time. The insights in this paper are expected to be valuable for other small islands in adapting to climate change. [Display omitted] • Quantifications of the changes in temperature and rainfall over time have been conducted. • The spatial distribution of the changing climate of a small island state is modelled. • Adaptation measures are proposed to conserve native island fauna and flora. • Science-based policies are proposed to improve sustainability of freshwater supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing impact of climate change on port infrastructure and facilities currently may lead to a rising frequency of such serious natural disasters or accidents as rising sea level, increasing extreme weather, increasing intensity of tropical storms and typhoons, rising wave height surmounting breakwater design levels, heavy rain exceeding quay well drainage capacity, rising ocean temperatures, and deteriorating harbor water quality. The paper aims to apply a risk management matrix approach to vulnerability assessment and identification of desirable adaptation strategies. The data for this investigation is first collected by means of questionnaire survey of experts in shipping companies or port management offices at the Kaohsiung port. Then, a vulnerability analysis of port infrastructure and facilities is carried out under the impact of severe typhoons. Subsequently, adaptation strategies are identified for infrastructure and facilities at the Kaohsiung port to address the adverse impacts of climate change. One intellectual merit of this paper is that ten vulnerability assessment criteria are proposed for addressing the impacts of climate change on port infrastructure and facilities. Second, both ground and access roads in the port area, and drainage facilities in flooding-prone areas are shown to be damaged in the moderate risk areas potentially impacted by typhoons. The third merit is that a set of adaptation strategies has been identified for the moderate risk areas impacted by serious typhoons. • A risk management matrix approach is applied to assess vulnerability and identify desirable adaptation strategies. • 10 vulnerability assessment criteria are given for solving impacts of climate change on port infrastructure and facilities. • Both ground and access roads in the port area and drainage facilities in flooding-prone areas are shown to be damaged. • A set of adaptation strategies has been identified for moderate risk areas impacted by serious typhoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dongting Lake Basin is an important hydrological regulation and flood storage area in the Yangtze River Basin, which plays an important role in maintaining regional ecological security. The watershed vegetation and its carbon sequestration capacity have changed dramatically due to climate change and human activities in the last two decades. In this paper, the monthly and annual vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) of the Dongting Lake basin during 2000 to 2020 was firstly estimated using the improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model. Then the multi-year NPP change trend and its significance were analyzed based on Theil-Sen median and Mann-Kendall method. Subsequently, the Hurst index was used to simulate the vegetation NPP persistence in the study area. Finally, the driving mechanisms of vegetation NPP changes in the study area were explored using partial correlation coefficients and residual analysis. The results demonstrated that: 1) The annual average NPP in the basin showed a fluctuating and increasing trend from 273.54 to 718.30 g C/m2·yr1 during 2000 to 2020, and except for autumn, all seasons (spring, summer, winter) and annual NPP series showed an upward trend. The spatial distribution of vegetation NPP is characterized by an asymmetrical horseshoe shape in general, with high values in the west, south and east parts, and low values in the Lake area; 2) During the study years, about 84.38 % of the basin area showed a significant and extremely significant increase of NPP; 3) The future trend of vegetation NPP in the basin shows that the area of decrease (22.79 %) is more than the area of increase (11.35 %). The Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration will generally show a continuous and extremely significant reduction trend, while parts of Dongting Lake will show a continuous and extremely significant increase trend; 4) The correlation between solar radiation and NPP is stronger than the other two meteorological factors (precipitation and temperature). Temperature has a significant inhibitory effect on NPP, solar radiation has a significant promoting effect on NPP, and the effect of precipitation on NPP was relatively complicated. The relative importance of meteorological factors on vegetation NPP was ranked as follows: solar radiation > precipitation > temperature. The impacts of both climate change and human activities on NPP changes showed great spatial variability, and the positive contributions (89.81 % for climate change and 82.87 % for human activities) were both greater than the negative contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sedimentary sequence of La Narce du Béage Basin is one of the few natural archives covering the last 18 ka cal. BP in the French Massif Central. This paper focuses on the palaeoecological reconstruction of environmental and climatic changes affecting this shallow periglacial lake from the Late-Glacial to the Early Holocene. After field surveys and geophysical mapping, two cores (cores A and D) were extracted and dated. Plant macrofossils, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and diatom assemblages were compared within the cores to study vegetation, temperature, pH, water level and ice cover changes through time. During the Oldest Dryas (18–14.75 ka cal. BP), climatic conditions were the coldest with a short ice-free season allowing the development of periphytic diatoms only (ecologically comparable to Arctic ones). A cold and dry steppe landscape – exposed to severe erosion – comprised an herbaceous and shrub flora (e.g. Artemisia , Chenopodiaceae, Helianthemum, Ephedra, Hippophaë, Juniperus). Animal presence is suggested by coprophilous fungi. Periphytic diatoms and allochtonous pollen (Cedrus) underline windy conditions, and the possible erosion of neo-formed soils. Then, during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (14.75–12.7 ka cal. BP), the ice-free season increased and some trees/shrubs (Salix, Betula and Juniperus) established locally within open grasslands. During the Younger Dryas (12.7–11.7 ka cal. BP) cooler conditions favoured steppe taxa again (Helianthemum, Achillea, Artemisia , Caryophyllaceae, Ranunculaceae) and erosion increased. The ice cover on the lake prevailed even if the conditions were not as cold as during the Oldest Dryas. During the Preboreal (11.7–10 ka cal. BP) Isoëtes echinospora and I. lacustris developed in the eulittoral zone of the lake, which was surrounded by a swamp forest (with Betula nana and B. pubescens). Pinus sylvestris, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana and trees from the Quercetum mixtum rapidly established in the uplands. Occurrences of Gaeumannomyces and Xylomyces fungi – both phytopathogens on broadleaved trees – and decreasing herb values indirectly hint at a close forest canopy. At the beginning of the Boreal (10 ka cal. BP), aquatic and semi-aquatic taxa developed on open water due to longer ice-free seasons (diatoms, micro-algae, Alisma plantago-aquatica, Potamogeton, Typha). The final terrestrialization towards a mire occurred as a consequence of the Holocene warming and related to water chemistry changes (acidification, eutrophication). • During the last deglaciation, a very shallow lake established as demonstrated by palaeoecological data, such as epiphytic diatoms, living on rocks. • Late-Glacial steppe landscape with severe erosion, open grassland and possible mega-herbivore presence. Arctic-like conditions. • Development of shrubs or trees during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial and reduced ice-free season. • Dry and cold conditions persisted from the Younger Dryas to the Early Preboreal. Oligotrophic flora (Isoetids) established in the eulittoral zone. • During the post-glacial warming, the lake tended to acidify. Peat flora and organic matter accumulated and led to the terrestrialization of the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Big-data mining approaches based on Artificial Intelligence models can help forecast biodiversity changes before they happen. These approaches can predict macroscopic species distribution patterns and trends that can inform preventive measures to avoid the loss of ecosystem functions and services. They can, therefore, help study and mitigate climate change implications on biodiversity conservation in fragile ecosystems. Wetlands are particularly fragile ecosystems where climate change poses severe risks and has dramatically reduced their size over the past century, with profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Through big-data mining approaches, we can predict future wetland biodiversity trends in the context of climate change. This paper proposes such predictive analysis for a specific wetland: The Massaciuccoli Lake basin in Tuscany, Italy. This basin is a critical tourist attraction due to its rich biodiversity, making it an area of interest for citizens, tourists, and scientists. However, the region's suitability for native and non-native species is at risk due to climate and land-use change. Using machine-learning models, we predict the potential effects of climate change on animal spatial distribution in the basin under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results suggest that habitat suitability has generally improved from 1950 to today, presumably owing to the targeted conservation strategies adopted in the area, but climate change will severely reduce bird biodiversity by 2050 while favouring several insect species' proliferation and other species' habitat change, even under a medium-emission scenario. This will lead to significant changes in the basin's biodiversity. Our methodology is adaptable to other wetland basins, being fully based on open data and models. The spatially explicit modelling used in this research provides valuable information for policymakers and spatial planners, complementing traditional biodiversity trend analyses. [Display omitted] • Bayesian Open Science ecological niche models for 180 species in an Italian wetland • Environmental change in the last 70 years has benefited animal biodiversity • Climate change will disadvantage birds even under medium greenhouse gas emission • Climate change will alter other species' richness and habitat distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent drought disasters have significant impacts on socio-economic and ecosystems, and it is crucial to explore the propagation characteristics of drought for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, based on 0.25° × 0.25° grid-point Meteorological hydrological and large-scale climate factor data, the start-to-start, peak-to-peak, and end-to-end drought propagation times, and the periods and rates of drought development and recovery were estimated for 11 regions in the Luanhe River Basin under stationary and non-stationary conditions. The Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework was used to construct stationary and non-stationary models to capture the stationary and non-stationary drought characteristics respectively, and then the drought development and recovery patterns, and drought propagation times were assessed. The results showed that under the influence of climate factors, severe drought events occurred in most study areas, the duration of meteorological drought was prolonged by 0.1–0.6 months, and the peak intensity was increased by about 0.05. The severity of hydrological drought increased by 0.2–0.8, and the peak intensity decreased by 0.1–0.2. The rate of development and recovery of hydrological drought was accelerated by 0.1–0.2 per month. The propagation time of start-to-start was shortened by 0.2 months, and the propagation time of end-to-end was extended by 1–2 months. These mean that water resource control authorities need to propose responses to droughts more quickly. • The non-stationary drought indices considering climatic factors were constructed. • The drought propagation time was calculated from start to start, peak to peak, and end to end. • Quantification of the effects of climate change on drought propagation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change led an increase in the frequency of severe droughts, the effects of which are exacerbated by a lack of water storage. Despite increasing research on global-scale total water storage (TWS) change and drought prediction, basin-scale long-term hydrological drought, TWS change, and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence in East Africa (EA) remain unexplored. In this paper, we used multiple approaches, of ensemble machine learning (ML) and weighted averaging, to conduct a basin-scale exploratory analysis of future hydrological drought and TWS change for the period 2025–2099. Climate change will affect future hydrological conditions in the basins, with maximum severity values of −90.3, −726.6, and −2567.7 Gt in the Tana, Turkana, and Victoria basins, respectively, under RCP6.0. Similarly, we found maximum severities of −187.5 and −277.7 Gt in the Abaya-Chamo and Tanganyika basins, respectively, under RCP 2.6. The most severe El Nino drought and exceptional La Nina conditions in the basins were found under both RCP scenarios. To ensure future water security in EA, sustainable water resource management strategies that can mitigate the impacts of extreme climate events in the future are urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water erosion, a notorious major threat to food security and ecosystem sustainability, is strongly conditioned by spatial and temporal scale effects. This paper systematically reviews the scale issues in runoff and sediment delivery (SIRSD) as a research field by integrating the traditional review approach and bibliometric analysis. This review summarises SIRSD's roots and the scale effect on runoff and sediment delivery. Then, we provide quantitative insights into the SIRSD domain's development history, thematic structure, geographic distribution, international cooperation, and methodologies. Findings show that: i) SIRSD arises from the gap between the non-linearity of runoff and sediment delivery across scales and our ability to measure it. Point-based and short-term measurements cannot capture the non-linearities from the spatio-temporal heterogeneities and cross-scale interactions of factors or processes. ii) Previous literature provides evidence that the spatial scaling of specific runoff (r), soil erosion (SE), sediment yield (SSY), or sediment delivery ratio (SDR) with drainage area (A) or slope length (L) exhibits contrasting patterns due to distinct mechanisms. Infiltration-excess and saturation-excess processes account for inverse and positive r - A relations, respectively. Interrill-erosion and rill-erosion cause inverse and positive SE-L relations. Hillslope-erosion and channel/bank-erosion explain inverse and positive SSY-A relations. Downstream increasing deposition and additional sediment inputs drive inverse and positive SDR-A relations. These scaling relationships can be nonlinear or complex due to spatial heterogeneities in land use, vegetation, topography, climate, lithology, and soil characteristics. Hence, applying an empirical scaling equation developed from the region with distinct environmental contexts is not recommended. Furthermore, the existing scaling patterns or equations may require updating given global climate and land use change. iii) SIRSD is a complex and multidisciplinary issue investigated by scientists from 93 countries since 1928. International research has substantially facilitated the understanding of SIRSD; still, more collaboration should focus on less-developed countries with high soil and water loss risks and urgent conservation needs, such as those in Africa and South America under cropland expansion. iv) Scale mismatch and scale break have discredited large-scale erosion and sediment assessments. Incorporating gully and bank erosion into modelling, extending the scale range of the L factor, and expanding the sediment scaling scope from watershed to slope may make a difference. Therefore, more research with nested design incorporating multiple scales is necessary for cross-scale analysis and scalable modelling. Addressing global climate change requires improving real-time urban flood forecasting and integrating downscaled climate models with hydrology, erosion, and sediment transport models. • A bibliometric review of the global SIRSD research for the first time. • SIRSD is rooted in the gap between natural nonlinearity and our measuring ability. • Scaling of specific runoff, erosion, sediment yield, and SDR has diverse patterns. • Scale mismatch and scale break discredit large-scale modelling and assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Ten multi-model combination methods (MMCMs) are created from 29 models in 50 basins. • MMCMs improve some performance indicators, especially the Granger-Ramanathan method. • MMCMs do not improve performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures. • Application with series of targeted signatures does not improve MMCM performance. • MMCM performance is improved by selecting more robust candidate models for ensembles. Multi-model combination (averaging) methods (MMCMs) are used to improve the accuracy of hydrological (precipitation-runoff) outputs in simulation or forecasting/prediction modes. In this paper, we examined if the application of MMCMs can improve model performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures, such as annual maxima or minima of varying durations. To this end, ten MMCMs were applied to 29 bucket-type models to simulate runoff in 50 high-latitude catchments. The MMCMs were evaluated by comparing the resulting simulated flows to the reference (i.e., best-performing) individual model, considering various commonly used performance indicators, as well as model performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Additionally, we analysed whether (1) the selection of the candidate models, or (2) targeting specific signatures, such as annual maxima or minima, can improve performance of the model combinations. The results suggest that the application of MMCMs can improve accuracy of runoff simulations in terms of traditional performance indicators, but fails to improve performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Neither excluding poor-performing models nor applying the MMCMs with the targeted signatures, improves this aspect of model performance. These findings clearly reveal the need for further research aiming at enhancing model performance in reproducing the distributions of hydrological signatures, which is essential for climate-change impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important hydrological changes are observed in Serbia, as well as in many parts of the world. Many national and international projects and studies address climate change and its impact on water resources. Some focus solely on the impact of climate change, while others also assess the impact of land use changes and/or changes in human use of water. Due to differences in climate change and human activities, the different climate and hydrological trends are obtained for the different regions in Serbia. This paper presents the past longterm temperature, precipitation and river discharge trends across Serbia. Second, more important aim of the research, is to assess and forecast average relationships between an increase in air temperature and changes in river discharges and precipitation. This relation could help us to find appropriate regional climate and hydrological models. Even within a single catchment, depending on the regional models used, the initial and other assumptions made, and the impacts assessed, the differences between the results can be small but often significant, too. The reliability of the projections receives little or no consideration. This paper also discusses this topic and attempts to provide some guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of precipitation, slope, and swamp wetland ratio on water yield is not affected by spatial scale and watershed. • Identifying key areas for ecosystem services combined with multiple scenarios can help to take ecological restoration. • The water yield in the Baihe basin is more sensitive on climate change, while the water yield in the Heihe basin is more easily affected by land use changes. • The economic development and ecosystem services can both be ensured by wetland ecological restoration. Water supply is one of the core ecosystem services functions for wetland. Due to the important status of Zoige wetland, assessment of water supply in Zoige wetland is significant for ecological security all over the world. In this paper, Heihe and Baihe basins in Zoige wetland were taken as research objects, the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to spatially quantify water supply, with the aims of revealing the driving mechanism of water supply under different basins and spatial scale. We observed the spatial pattern change of water yield under baseline and eleven future scenarios and used the ANOVA of repeated measures and multiple linear regression model to explore the patterns and driving factors of water supply in Heihe and Baihe rivers basins. The research results were as follow. (1) The precipitation is main factor to improve water yield, but this intensity is different in different basins and spatial scale. Topography, climate, vegetation, and percentage of wetland conditions have important impacts on water yield services. However, the impacts of these conditions on water yield were various significantly across different watersheds and spatial scales (excluding factors such as precipitation, slope, and percentage of swamp wetland). (2) The spatial pattern of water yield main was affected by land use change and the amount of water yield main was affected by future climate change. (3) Water yield in the Baihe basin was more sensitive to climate change, while the Heihe basin is more sensitive to land use changes. Wetland ecological restoration strategies can effectively improve regional water yield, especially in the Heihe basin. (4) In all scenarios, the southeast regions of the study region were both the main hot spots of water yield. Wetland ecological restoration strategies have added hot spots in the north regions of the Baihe river basin, reduced hot spots in the middle-south regions of the Heihe basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We develop a framework to estimate future Flood Regulation Service (FRS) dynamics. • The framework considers the joint impacts of both climate change and urbanization. • Future FRS supply–demand imbalance will continue to intensify. • Future impacts of climate change in Baiyangdian Lake Basin cannot be ignored. • Cities should actively adapt to climate change to reduce flood risks in the future. Estimating the supply–demand relationship's future dynamics and trend of Flood Regulation Service (FRS) is important for preventing flood risks and choose an appropriate future development path. Less attention has been given to assessing the future trends in this relationship under the joint influence of climate change and urbanization. This paper aims to quantify future trends in the FRS supply–demand relationship under the joint impacts of climate change and urbanization. To this end, we took the Baiyangdian Lake Basin as an example and developed a "Climate Change-Urbanization-FRS supply and demand" framework by combining future climate scenarios from the ScenarioMIP (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) dataset and socioeconomic data from the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to estimate the FRS supply and demand dynamics during the period from 2020 to 2050. The results show that the framework has a reasonable ability to estimate the FRS supply–demand relationship. The correlation coefficients between estimated supply–demand ratios and the historical values exceeded 0.9. The average FRS supply–demand ratio among the four scenarios shows a significantly downward trend between 2020 and 2050. The FRS is expected to decrease by 0.159 (36.6 %), resulting in the imbalanced area increasing from 38.3 km2 (4.1 % of the whole basin) to 11049.7 km2 (36.2 %). We believe that although urbanization is the dominant factor contributing to the intensified imbalance trend (with a contribution of 71.2 %), influences from climate change also cannot be ignored (with a contribution of 28.8 %). Therefore, adaptation actions to climate change should be actively taken to reduce urban flood risks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing mankind in the 21st century. Extreme climatic events are expected to be more frequent and severe leading to various natural disasters. Vietnam, with more than 70% of the population working in agriculture and having a high density of inhabitants on the coastal plains, is one among those countries heavily impacted by climate change. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology to assess the impacts of climate change on a flood prone area of a coastal river basin in the central region of Vietnam. The hydrological simulations are based on a validated deterministic hydrological model MIKE SHE, which integrates geology, soil, topography, river systems and climate variables. The present-day climate, over the period of 1991–2010, was reasonably simulated by the hydrological model. Future climate (2091–2100) information was obtained from a dynamical downscaling of the global climate models, CCSM3.0, MIROC-medres and ECHAM5 under A2 scenario, using the Regional Climate Model: Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The result indicates that with this area, the ensemble future river flow under scenario A2 might increase up to 200% during rainy season and reduce to roughly 7–30% during dry season. The study also analyzed the changes in the flood dynamics of the study region, the hydrological shift and the uncertainties of climate change simulation. This paper showcases an operational approach to integrate the results from the impacts of climate change to flood protection measures that would help in devising resilience strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The effects of climate change on water resources have been studied extensively throughout the world through the use of hydrologic models coupled with General Circulation Model (GCM) output or climate sensitivity scenarios. This paper examines the effects of hydrologic model parameterization uncertainty or equifinality, where multiple unique hydrologic model parameter sets can result in adequate calibration metrics, on hydrologic projections from downscaled GCMs for three snowmelt-dependent watersheds (upper reaches of the Clearwater, Gunnison, and Sacramento River watersheds) in the western United States. The hydrologic model used in this study is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and is calibrated for discharge at the watershed outlet in each watershed. Despite achieving similar calibration metrics, a majority of hydrologic projections of average annual streamflow during the 2080s were statistically different, with differences in magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) compared to historical annual streamflows. At the average monthly time-scale, a majority of the hydrologic projections varied in peak streamflow timing, peak streamflow magnitude, summer streamflows, as well as overall increases or decreases compared to the historical monthly streamflows. Snowmelt projections from the SWAT model also widely varied, both in depth and snowmelt peak timing, for all watersheds. Since a large portion of the runoff-producing regions in the western United States is snowmelt-dependent, this has large implications for the prediction of the amount and timing of streamflow in the coming century. This paper shows that hydrologic model parameterizations that give similar adequate calibration metrics can lead to statistically significant differences in hydrologic projections under climate change. Therefore, researchers and water resource managers should account for this uncertainty by assembling ensemble projections from both multiple parameter sets and GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The potential changes in future streamflow due to changing climate could be very significant. Therefore, Land development in the area should carefully consider the future climatic variations. • Sustainable water management strategies must be applied in the catchment to overcome the water shortage issues. • The anticipated drier climate could change the flow regimes and harm the biodiversity of the Peel-Harvey Estuary. • Adaptive responses would be necessary to maintain sustainable ecological communities. • The findings are useful to manage the usage of future water resources in the catchment by considering the low flow situation. This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of future climate changes on the hydrological characteristics of Harvey River catchment in Western Australia. A conceptual lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model (HBV model) is used to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Daily observations of rainfall, temperature and discharge and monthly mean potential evapotranspiration from the hydro-meteorological stations within the catchment were used to calibrate and validate the HBV model. The calibrated model was then forced by the downscaled future rainfall and temperature to simulate the daily discharge at the catchment outlet for the mid (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) of the 21st century. Future climate signals were extracted from a multi-model ensemble of eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A control run, with the baseline climatic period (1971–2010), was used to represent the current climate status. Results show a noticeable reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid-century particularly for the RCP4.5 relative to the current streamflow. By the end of the century, all scenarios revealed a relatively high decline in the mean annual streamflow especially the RCP4.5. The decline in future streamflow ranged between 17–27% during the mid-century and 23–52% by the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change, hydrological and hydraulic model are combined to analyze runoffs. • Four Global Climate Model: BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO are used. • The future design runoffs and water levels increase in Qu River. • Disaster management and infrastructure construction should be paid more attention to. The impact of climate change on regional hydrological extreme events has been a research topic that has received much attention in recent years. This paper aims to provide a general overview of changes on future runoffs and water levels in the Qu River Basin, upper reaches of Qiantang River, East China by combining future climate scenarios, hydrological model and 1D hydraulic model. The LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator) statistical downscaling method is used to downscale the GCM (Global Climate Model) outputs (including BCC, BNU, CanESM and CSIRO under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and generate 50 years of synthetic precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to drive the GR4J hydrological model and the 1D hydraulic model for the baseline period 1971–2000 and the future period 2021–2050. Finally, the POT (Peaks over Threshold) method is applied to analyze the change of extreme events in the study area. The results show that design runoffs and water levels all indicate an increasing trend in the future period for Changshangang River and Jiangshangang River at most cases, especially for small return periods, and for Qu River the increase becomes larger, which suggests that the risk of flooding will probably become greater and appropriate adaptation measures need to be taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Understanding the riparian zone from the watershed river-groundwater transformation. • Revealing the contributions of groundwater to landscape ecological patterns. • Proposing pathways to maintain a healthy landscape ecological pattern. In arid and semiarid areas with scarce precipitation, strong evaporation, and fragile ecosystems, rivers and groundwater interact frequently. Dynamic hydrological changes and solute transport jointly determine the evolution of the landscape in riparian zones, resulting in the formation of a landscape ecological pattern in arid areas that is unique and includes a system of rivers and lakes. In recent decades, unsustainable and mono-purpose grey infrastructure has been implemented in many arid areas, and the effect of river-groundwater interactions on the landscape ecological pattern in riparian zones has often been neglected. These processes have triggered variations in or even the reversal of landscape ecological patterns in these arid areas. This study selected the arid and semiarid basin in northwestern China as the study area. Multiple methods were used to study the evolution of the landscape ecological pattern in the riparian zones driven by typical hydrological processes from the perspective of river-groundwater transformation. Three results were obtained from the analysis: (1) The driving force of the evolution was identified, and the spatial geological heterogeneity, meteorological and hydrological conditions, and river-groundwater interactions played dominant roles in the evolution of the landscape ecological pattern in the riparian zones. (2) Human activities and climate change controlled the direction and intensity of landscape evolution. (3) Pathways for maintaining a healthy landscape ecological pattern in riparian zones and suggestions for identifying the key issues that should be studied in the future were proposed. This paper primarily contributes to a better understanding of landscape ecological patterns in the riparian zone in arid areas from the watershed river-groundwater transformation perspective, thereby promoting integrated watershed management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A single year was divided into three different seasons. • The impact of human activities and climate change on runoff were quantified. • The main factors of runoff changes caused by human activities were analyzed. The Yongding River has ceased to flow due to the impact of human activities and climate change, inducing environmental degradation. Analyzing the driving factors is vital for environmental restoration and water resources allocation, but it is challenging especially at seasonal scale. In this paper, the monthly abcd model was constructed for the Yongding River basin and two sub-basins, namely Yanghe and Sangganhe, to quantify the relative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff decrease. The results show that the annual runoff in the basin has been declining significantly since the 1980s, up to 30 mm/year. Human activities are the main influencing factors, with 108% contribution in the entire Yongding River basin, 122% and 98% in Yanghe and Sanggan sub-basins, respectively. The impact of human activities on runoff varies in different seasons, which is highest in the wet season, followed by irrigation season and dry season. The impact of human activities is more pronounced in July-September due to water withdrawal for irrigation and operation rules of reservoirs, which is twice as much as that in April-June. A stricter management system can alleviate the impact of human activities on runoff change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Three models were used to cover model structure uncertainty for each catchment. • AET is larger in the karst-dominated than the adjacent nonkarst-dominated catchment. • AET of karst-dominated catchment is more sensitive to the change in climate. • The karst-dominated catchment will experience much drier hydrological projections. Karst systems are well-known for their special features, such as epikarst zone and quick flow, compared to other hydrological systems. However, few studies explored the difference in hydrological responses to climate change between karst and nonkarst catchments. In this paper, two adjacent catchments dominated by karst and nonkarst in Southwest China (subtropical monsoon climate) were selected to investigate their different hydrological behaviors under future climates. To account for potential model structure uncertainties, three different karst hydrological models and three traditional catchment models were used to simulate these two catchments. The results demonstrate that different models yield comparable streamflow simulations within each catchment, allowing for the focus to be on the impact of climate change and catchment hydrological characteristics. The karst-dominated catchment is modeled to have larger actual evapotranspiration (AET) than the nonkarst-dominated catchment under similar climate conditions, with the AET of the former being more sensitive to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. These differences are primarily due to the presence of the epikarst in the unsaturated zone of the karst system, which can store more infiltration rainwater for evapotranspiration. Both catchments are expected to experience a wetter projection in the wet season and a drier projection in the dry season in the future. However, the karst-dominated catchment will face a drier climate with a significant increase in precipitation in just two months (July and August). Additionally, because of a higher sensitivity of monthly AET to climate change, the karst-dominated catchment will experience a greater monthly discharge reduction in the first two wet months (April and May), a relatively lower discharge increase in other wet months, and a lower monthly discharge in dry months, while the monthly discharge of the nonkarst-dominated catchment increases in the wet season and decrease in the dry season. Furthermore, the karst-dominated catchment will have a much lower annual discharge than the nonkarst-dominated catchment, particularly during extremely dry years in the future period due to its larger AET consumption. These all suggest that the karst-dominated catchment will be more vulnerable to droughts. Overall, due to the drier climate and the different hydrological backgrounds of the karst-dominated catchment, it is expected to have much drier hydrological conditions in the future compared to the nonkarst-dominated catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Calcareous tufa, as well as other types of continental carbonates, are largely sensitive to climate variations. As a consequence, the relationship between climate variations and tufa deposition is relatively well known and calcareous tufa deposits are often used as a reliable climatic proxy in many geological settings. Conversely, the response of tufa to tectonics and uplifting processes is relatively poorly known, due to their genetic independence from geothermally heated groundwater springs and associated tectonic-controlled upwelling conduits in tectonically active settings. The aim of this paper is to describe a peculiar stratigraphic succession where calcareous tufa deposits are closely associated and interbedded with coarse-grained clastic deposits. The study area is located in southern Tuscany (Massa Marittima), where extensional tectonic processes, responsible for the emplacement of magmatic bodies at shallow crustal levels, have been active from Pliocene to Quaternary age, and caused a diffuse uplift as well as local volcanic eruptions and hydrothermal fluid circulation. The succession described in the paper recorded phases of calcareous tufa-dominated deposition (i.e. overall, medium/low hydrodynamic energetic settings) repeatedly interbedded with coarse-grained clastic fluvial sediments which testify an abrupt change in both the energy of the depositional environment and the sediment supply. Nevertheless, during the phases dominated by clastic sedimentation, tufa deposition was not inhibited as it would be expected for climate-influenced settings, suggesting that the observed stratigraphic settings were a consequence of a local uplift of the catchment area. These findings indicate that calcareous tufa deposits could be a sensitive proxy to tectonics when they are associated with coarse-grained clastic deposits, in a geological setting where the origin of the clastic sediments cannot be explained by autocyclic or climate-induced factors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Dike resilience against wave overtopping has gained more and more attention in recent years due to the effect of expected future climate changes. The overtopping flow velocities and flow depths on dikes have recently been studied in 2D small-scale experiments. This has led to semi-empirical formulae for the estimation of flow depths and flow velocities across a dike. The results have been coupled to the actual erosion of the landward dike slope determined by full-scale 2D tests using the so-called “Overtopping Simulator”. This paper describes the results from 96 small-scale tests carried out in a shallow water basin at Aalborg University to cover the so far unknown 3D effects from oblique long-crested and short-crested waves. Based on results from the laboratory tests, expansions are proposed to the existing 2D formulae so as to cover oblique and short-crested waves. The wave obliquity is seen to significantly reduce the overtopping flow velocities and flow depths on especially the landward slope of a sea dike. Moreover, the tests showed that the average flow directions on the dike crest from oblique long-crested and short-crested waves correspond approximately to the incident wave direction. Flow depths and the squared flow velocities on the dike are concluded to be Rayleigh-distributed in case of both long-crested and short-crested waves for all considered incident wave obliquities. Findings in the present paper are needed to obtain more realistic estimates of dike erosion caused by wave overtopping. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The fluvial network of the Southern Pyrenees is an example of transverse drainage systems in young (alpine) mountain belts and it features well preserved fluvial terrace records. Some of the major Southern Pyrenees tributary rivers have been studied previously and have some age controls on their fluvial terrace levels. We extend these records to one of the largest streams in the Southern Pyrenees, the Segre River. In this paper, we present new GIS data, field observations and exposure ages obtained from in situ produced terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (10Be). The focus of this paper is set to unravel the relative impact of climatic controls on the formation of the Segre terrace staircase in the Southern Pyrenees foreland (Ebro Basin). The Pleistocene terrace staircase of the Segre River is built up by seven major terrace levels, which range from 112 to 3m above the present-day active channel. The prominent upper and middle terraces TQ1, TQ2, TQ3 and TQ4 have been sampled for 10Be exposure dating. Exposure ages have been calculated using Monte Carlo parameter simulations. Additionally, we applied a Profile Rejuvenation method accounting for variable 10Be inheritance in the samples, and which yielded comparable results. The Monte Carlo results show Middle to Late Pleistocene exposure ages for TQ1: 202ka (MIS 7), TQ2: 139ka (MIS 6), TQ3: 100ka (MIS 5), and TQ4: 62ka (MIS 4), involving denudation rates of 3–8mmka−1. The results indicate that the abandonment of Segre paleo-floodplains and the change from aggradation to predominant incision is related with Middle to Late Pleistocene cold-warm climate transitions (or early stages of interglacial periods). Major floodplain aggradation appears to be linked with intense deglaciation at the end of MIS 8, MIS 6, and MIS 4. The exposure of terrace TQ3 (MIS 5) indicates that terrace formation might also occur during relatively warm isotope stages with sufficient climate instability. On a regional scale, the staircase morphology at the Segre River shows similarities with adjacent fluvial systems in the Southern Pyrenees. In addition, previously published chronologies for these systems are consistent with the timing of aggradation and terrace abandonment. Both, staircase morphology and chronology point to regionally synchronous phases of floodplain aggradation and river incision, which seem to be triggered by climate variability and Pleistocene glaciations in the Pyrenees since the Mid Pleistocene Climatic Revolution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The present paper focuses on the analysis of dryness/wetness in the Yangtze River Basin from 1960 to 2005 using monthly precipitation data observed at 135 gauges uniformly distributed over the area. The spatial and temporal variation of dryness/wetness has been assessed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The principal component analysis (PCA) and wavelet transform analysis were applied to the SPI series computed on both 6-month and 12-month time scales. The results demonstrated noticeable spatial patterns with three sub-regions characterized by different climatic variability: the southeastern downstream part of the basin, the midstream and the western upstream part of the study area. In the upstream and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, an obvious trend towards wetter conditions has been detected from 1990 onward. In addition, inter-decadal changes are obvious, indicating 7–8 years fluctuation in most parts of the region sporadically distributed in the studied period in 95% confidence level. The results of this paper will be helpful for an efficient water resources management under different conditions. Furthermore, three sub-regions should be separately considered in the watershed planning process for mitigating the adverse impacts of future extreme drought or flood occurrences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The Senegal River Basin, located in West Africa, has been affected by several droughts since the end of the 1960s. In its valley, which is densely populated and highly vulnerable to climate variability and water availability, agricultural activities provide the livelihood for thousands of people. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will allow to improve the adaptation and mitigation measures in order to build “adaptive capacity” to climate change in West Africa. An innovative methodology for the non-stationary analysis of droughts events, which allows the prediction of regional trends associated to several return periods, is presented. The analyses were based on Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the European ENSEMBLES project for West Africa, together with observed data. A non-stationary behaviour of the annual series of maximum length of dry spells (AMDSL) in the monsoon season is reflected in temporal changes in mean and variance. The non-stationary nature of hydrometeorological series, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, is the main criticism to traditional frequency analysis. Therefore, in this paper, the modelling tool GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape), is applied to develop regional probability density functions (pdfs) fitted to AMDSL series for the monsoon season in the Senegal River Basin. The skills of RCMs in the representation of maximum length of dry spells observed for the period 1970–1990, are evaluated considering observed data. Based on the results obtained, a first selection of the RCMs with which to apply GAMLSS to the AMDSL series identified, for the time period 1970–2050, is made. The results of GAMLSS analysis exhibit divergent trends, with different value ranges for parameters of probability distributions being detected. Therefore, in the second stage of the paper, regional pdfs are constructed using bootstrapping distributions based on probabilistic models. In general, an increase in the mean and variance statistics of AMDSL at regional level are predicted, thereby increasing the lengths of dry spells associated with a low probability of occurrence (related to high return period) in the monsoon season. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides an evidence-based contribution to understanding processes of climate change adaptation in water governance systems in the Netherlands, Australia and South Africa. It builds upon the work of Ostrom on institutional design principles for local common pool resources systems. We argue that for dealing with complexities and uncertainties related to climate change impacts (e.g. increased frequency and intensity of floods or droughts) additional or adjusted institutional design propositions are necessary that facilitate learning processes. This is especially the case for dealing with complex, cross-boundary and large-scale resource systems, such as river basins and delta areas in the Netherlands and South Africa or groundwater systems in Western Australia. In this paper we provide empirical support for a set of eight refined and extended institutional design propositions for the governance of adaptation to climate change in the water sector. Together they capture structural, agency and learning dimensions of the adaptation challenge and they provide a strong initial framework to explore key institutional issues in the governance of adaptation to climate change. These institutional design propositions support a “management as learning” approach to dealing with complexity and uncertainty. They do not specify blueprints, but encourage adaptation tuned to the specific features of local geography, ecology, economies and cultures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In a globally warming climate, observed rates of atmospheric evaporative demand have declined over recent decades. Several recent studies have shown that declining rates of evaporative demand are primarily governed by trends in the aerodynamic component (primarily being the combination of the effects of wind speed (u) and atmospheric humidity) and secondarily by changes in the radiative component. A number of these studies also show that declining rates of observed near-surface u (termed ‘stilling’) is the primary factor contributing to declining rates of evaporative demand. One objective of this paper was to review and synthesise the literature to assess whether stilling is a globally widespread phenomenon. We analysed 148 studies reporting terrestrial u trends from across the globe (with uneven and incomplete spatial distribution and differing periods of measurement) and found that the average trend was −0.014ms−1 a−1 for studies with more than 30 sites observing data for more than 30years, which confirmed that stilling was widespread. Assuming a linear trend this constitutes a −0.7ms−1 change in u over 50years. A second objective was to confirm the declining rates of evaporative demand by reviewing papers reporting trends in measured pan evaporation (E pan) and estimated crop reference evapotranspiration (ET o); average trends were −3.19mma−2 (n =55) and −1.31mma−2 (n =26), respectively. A third objective was to assess the contribution to evaporative demand trends that the four primary meteorological variables (being u; atmospheric humidity; radiation; and air temperature) made. The results from 36 studies highlighted the importance of u trends. We also quantified the sensitivity of rates of evaporative demand to changes in u and how the relative contributions of the aerodynamic and radiative components change seasonally over the globe. Our review: (i) shows that terrestrial stilling is widespread across the globe; (ii) confirms declining rates of evaporative demand; and (iii) highlights the contribution u has made to these declining evaporative rates. Hence we advocate that assessing evaporative demand trends requires consideration of all four primary meteorological variables (being u, atmospheric humidity, radiation and air temperature). This is particularly relevant for long-term water resource assessment because changes in u exert greater influence on energy-limited water-yielding catchments than water-limited ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Catchment hydrological models are widely used in climate change impact studies. The considered climate scenarios often involve increases in rainfall intensities. These increases might go beyond the range of historical events used in model calibration and validation. The hydrological impact results of climate change consequently are under these circumstances highly uncertain. This paper presents a method to test the validity of hydrological models for that type of impact analysis. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. The method is demonstrated, based upon the results of three conceptual rainfall–runoff models (NAM, PDM, VHM) for three catchments in Belgium. It is shown how the performance of the model in predicting impacts of rainfall increases can be integrated in the calibration process and how this method can increase the reliability of climate change impact results on peak flows. The paper addresses the importance of the relation between the soil moisture content and the overland flow coefficient, as it controls the generation of peak flows in the considered rainfall–runoff models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The overall goal of the present study is to show through a simulation experiment the value of adaptive management under climatic variability and change. The Northern California water resources management system is used as an example of a multi-agency, multi-site, multi-objective water resources management system that supports a trillion dollar economy to demonstrate the utility of the methods and to exemplify the assessment studies. Simulations are performed using an adaptation of the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) system of Northern California with 6-hourly 1.4° input from the CCSM3.0 climate model for historical/control (1970–2019) and future periods (2050–2099). The present paper examines the assessment of the hydroclimatological sensitivities and a companion paper () examines the assessment of reservoir management sensitivities. The future period was based on the moderate CCSM3.0 A1B scenario. The INFORM system includes an intermediate complexity regional model for dynamic downscaling of the CCSM3.0 scenario output to produce surface precipitation and temperature fields with a 10×10km2 resolution, and snow–soil-channel modeling of all the watersheds upstream of the major reservoirs in Northern California. The flow results indicate a shift in the monthly average flow volume toward earlier times in the year and higher flow variability for the future period. Higher average temperatures in the future period and, consequently, earlier snow pack melt are mainly responsible for these flow changes. Both daytime and nighttime average monthly temperatures are higher in the simulation of the future period for the entire domain with the northern catchments experiencing higher temperature increases. Simulated monthly average precipitation for the future period is higher in the southern high Sierras and lower in the northern drainage basins than the historical period precipitation. The uncertainty in the assessments for Northern California mentioned may be estimated with additional simulations similar to those shown in this work using high spatial and temporal resolution output from different climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, archaeologists have studied how ancient humans have shaped, and been shaped by, their surrounding environments in an effort to provide valuable insight into the patterns of human-environment interaction during prehistoric and historical periods. Along the Heihe River in Hexi Corridor of northwest China, archaeologists have found many ancient cities that are good places to explore changes in human settlement patterns in relation to environment change in historical periods. In this paper, we present our investigation of seven ancient cities to clarify the chronology of these cities and their strategy for wood use in the area through the application of radiocarbon dating and charcoal identification. Our results suggest that the ages of many cities are younger than previous estimates, and humans mainly used Tamarix and mixed Tamarix and broad leaf trees in the lower and middle reaches of the Heihe River basin between ∼ AD 240–1380 respectively, and roughly matches the modern spatial distribution of natural woody vegetation in the area. In comparison to the results of archaeological, paleoclimatic and historical studies in Hexi Corridor, we propose that ancient human strategies for wood use and their impact on environment of the Heihe Basin are primarily relevant to human lifestyles rather than climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Annual and seasonal water variability is predicted to intensify due to climate change. River basins lacking institutional capacity, such as treaties, to deal with environmental change may experience political tensions. Using the 1948–2008 country dyads event data from the Basins at Risk project, this paper investigates whether basins governed by treaties witness less tensions and/or more cooperation over shared water relative to those basins not governed by treaties. It also evaluates basins pre- and post-treaty enactment. The results provide only limited support for the claim that the presence of a treaty does in fact promote cooperation, but provide stronger support for the claim that the number of agreements between riparians enhances cooperation particularly when taking into consideration water variability. This variable is significantly and positively correlated with increased cooperation – a finding that is robust across different specifications controlling for a broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables. This may indicate that successive treaties successfully address some of the shortcomings of their predecessors. Importantly, when disaggregating conflictive and cooperative events, the research does not find support for the claim that treaties or number of treaties reduce conflict. This may highlight the importance of the need to treat conflict and cooperation individually and not simply as opposite poles of a single spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In northwestern China, many historical nomadic kingdoms and Chinese dynasties sought to control the Heihe River basin, an important location on the eastern part of the ancient Silk Road. Archaeologists have argued that changes in material culture are tied to the frequent turnover in polities in the area, but no published evidence supports these claims. In this paper, we evaluate the relative importance of environmental and political factors in determining the spatiotemporal pattern of archaeological sites in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River basin by using previously published high-resolution paleoclimate records and a variety of historical documents. Our results indicate that humans intensively exploited the Heihe River basin during Han dynasty (202BC–AD 220). Following the Han dynasty, during the Wei-Jin (AD 222–589) and Sui-Tang (AD 581–907) periods the number of archaeological sites. In the Western Xia-Yuan period (AD 1038–1368), people mainly settled in the lower reaches of the Heihe River basin and only returned to the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD 1368–1912). Although climate change and the local environment affected human activities in Heihe River basin, geopolitical events, such as forced mass migrations, are more responsible for influencing the distribution of archaeological sites over the past 2000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • MIKE SHE effectively simulates the hydrological regime of an ephemeral catchment. • Point estimates of ET components may help to reduce equifinality. • The discretization limit in MIKE SHE affects solute transport simulation efficiency. • Drop in salt output rate with increasing severity of climate change is predicted. • The catchment soil retains high salinity under future climate projections. Abstract This paper presents a model of flow and solute transport of intermittent catchments in arid and semi-arid regions, highlighting challenges caused by the complex interactions between subsurface and surface flows. A case study is used for the application of the integrated MIKE SHE model to investigate temporal and spatial dynamics of water and salinity in a small ephemeral catchment in southwestern Victoria, Australia. MIKE SHE was successfully calibrated and validated against experimental data of streamflow, groundwater levels, and salt discharged from the catchment. Projections of climatic conditions, adopting Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, were used to infer how salinity discharge and concentrations might be affected across a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different severity. The calibration of the water fluxes was solely based on parameters associated with the model of evapotranspiration, with other parameters selected from field observations and literature. The calibrated parameters for the salt transport were the longitudinal and lateral dispersivities. The calibration and validation of streamflow series led to Index of Agreement (IoA) of 0.92 and 0.8 respectively, while the simulation of groundwater levels was more challenging (IoA ranging from 0.22 to 0.89). Parameter equifinality was observed, with different parameter sets achieving a good fit of streamflow and groundwater levels, although leading to differing spatial patterns of evapotranspiration rates. Calibration and validation of the discharge concentrations appeared more difficult (IoA of 0.35 for calibration and 0.44 for validation) as they are affected by errors in the simulated flow. Climate projections RCP 8.5 suggested a reduction of salt discharge with consequent increased concentrations within the catchment. The study showed the ability of MIKE SHE to be successfully applied to intermittent dry catchments to possibly support water and land management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reviews the possible future situation of the Rhone River in the Swiss part of its catchment. Physical processes in the Alps govern the behaviour of the Rhone from its source (Rhone Glacier) to the Lake of Geneva, and substantial changes are expected to occur in the amount and seasonality of precipitation, and in the response of snow and glaciers to a warming climate. As a result, discharge in the alpine part of the Rhone River is likely to undergo an increase in winter and early spring, but strongly decreases from late spring to late autumn. These changes in water regimes will certainly be accompanied by more frequent geomorphic hazards, related to increases in heavy precipitation events and the melting of permanently frozen grounds. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, and agriculture, while shifts in extreme events will have an impact on the vulnerability of infrastructure and a range of economic sectors and services. Projections of the future course of events can help in advance planning and decision making in order to alleviate some of the more negative consequences of climate and hydrological impacts on key economic sectors in the region. This paper will thus discuss issues related to current and future water governance in the region, whether water-related policies are sufficiently robust today to cope with what may be rapid changes in water availability and water use in coming decades, and to resolve possible rivalries between economic sectors that may be increasingly confronted with problems of water availability at critical times of the year. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Conventional piped drainage systems are currently being challenged by climate change and urbanization, leading to pluvial flooding, with negative consequences for people's properties and lives. Sustainable stormwater management has been suggested as an alternative, but implementation of its infrastructures is often limited to demonstration zones. Governance factors are among the main reasons for the slow pace. A literature review analyzing 44 peer-reviewed papers was conducted to examine the challenges from a governance perspective. The challenges identified were summarized based on actors, resources, rules of the game, and discourses. Challenges such as unclear leadership and responsibilities, lack of funding, lack of cost data on sustainable stormwater management solutions, lack of space and knowledge, lack of uniform guidelines, and lack of stakeholder participation were found to be the most prominent reasons. Suggested solutions to overcoming these challenges include e.g., researchers acting as knowledge brokers, the involvement of social capital among local stakeholders, re-using vacant land, establishing uniform guidelines, and increasing market incentives to engage stakeholders. The governance structures of stormwater management were categorized as hierarchical, closed and open co-governance arrangements, while open co-governance arrangement was suggested as a useful governance structure. The difference is that the latter structure engages stakeholders, which is of benefits to increased sustainable stormwater management implementation. More research on social-economical aspects is suggested. These findings can improve understanding among decision makers and other relevant actors of challenges related to implementing sustainable stormwater management as a primary solution to the current climate and urbanization challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities have changed the spatial-temporal distribution of water resources, especially in a fragile ecological area such as the upper reaches of the Minjiang River (UMR) basin, where they have had a more profound effect. The average of double-mass curve (DMC) and Distributed Time-Variant Gain Hydrological Model (DTVGM) are applied to distinguish between the impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in this paper. Results indicated that water resources decreased over nearly 50 years in the UMR. At the annual scale, contributions of human activities and climate change to changes in discharge were −77% and 23%, respectively. In general, human activities decreased the availability of water resources, whereas climate change increased the availability of water resources. However, the impacts of human activities and climate change on water resources availability were distinctly different on annual versus seasonal scales, and they showed more inconsistency in summer and autumn. The main causes of decreasing water resources are reservoir regulation, and water use increases due to population growth. The results of this study can provide support for water resource management and sustainable development in the UMR basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Groundwater discharge to a lowland alluvial stream was estimated. • The estimates were obtained using methods at point-, reach-, and catchment-scale. • Groundwater discharge partitioned into streambed seepage and bank seepage. • Part of the baseflow actually came from tile drainage. • The multi-method approach enabled a reliable estimation of groundwater discharge. Abstract The groundwater contribution to streamflow along a lowland alluvial stream in Denmark was estimated using a variety of methods and at different spatial scales. At the point-scale (less than a few metres), groundwater discharge to the stream was measured using seepage meters. At the reach-scale (0.5–1.5 km), groundwater discharge to the stream was estimated using differential streamflow gauging. And at the catchment-scale (>1.5 km), groundwater discharge to the stream was estimated using hydrograph separation. The estimates of groundwater discharge obtained using point-scale measurements range from 12 to 41 cm/d which is lower than fluxes estimated at the reach-scale which range from 18 to 333 cm/d. This discrepancy was attributed to the partitioning of groundwater discharge into streambed seepage and bank seepage. On the other hand, the groundwater discharge estimates obtained using hydrograph separation were generally the highest and ranged from 194 to 289 cm/d. For this study, this discrepancy from the reach-scale estimates was attributed to the assumption that baseflow obtained using hydrograph separation represents groundwater discharge to the stream when part of the baseflow actually comes from artificial drainage systems. Anyhow, seepage meter measurements, differential streamflow gauging, and hydrograph separation showed similar trends. The increase in streamflow is mainly due to either groundwater discharge through the streambed and the banks in the lower part, or tile drainage discharge in the upper part of the catchment. Furthermore, estimation of uncertainty for the various groundwater discharge estimates showed that some of the flux estimates were insignificant compared with their propagated uncertainties. To this end, a novel method was developed to estimate the uncertainty of groundwater discharge estimates obtained by hydrograph separation. Overall, this paper shows that more than one method should be used to obtain a reliable estimate of groundwater discharge to a lowland alluvial stream from other discharge contributions such as tile drainage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change exerts influence on the globe over relatively long temporal and at broad spatial scales. However, at the local scale in which communities undertake their daily activities, changes in land-use may result in changes that accumulate and manifest more quickly in the landscape. In this paper we set out a methodology for identifying social–ecological system (SES) vulnerabilities in the landscape with respect to freshwater resources for Arctic communities. A multiple-scale approach is used at regional and watershed scales and is demonstrated for the Seward Peninsula region, Alaska and the Fish River watershed on Seward Peninsula but may be applied elsewhere. The approach includes change in permafrost distribution as an important effect of climate change, and change in mining activity as an important land-use effect. Vulnerability in the SES is identified as a consequence of spatially coinciding values. The resulting patterns of vulnerability highlight the interaction between changes, which act on slower temporal scales (e.g., permafrost distribution) and changes which act more quickly (e.g., downstream aggregation of mining activity). These results are discussed in the context of using the integration approach outlined in this paper to better enable communities’ responses to change at local scales in such a way that they are both adaptive and resilient. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability ( p ) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62 ≤ p ≥ 0.8 in all the stations, though, the p -values for 10 day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD > 0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts lead to alterations in migration patterns and the displacement of exposed native communities and peoples in the Arctic region, forcing them to leave their homes and traditional ways of life as a result of rapid local ecological changes. This paper illustrates climate-related displacements and subsequent relocation as extremely complex processes, and proposes traditional knowledge as a relevant source of knowledge both at local level and policy making spheres. The main conclusions are that the representation of indigenous peoples in international governance structures does not guarantee that traditional knowledge is entirely engaged in evidence-based policy making and that traditional knowledge is not always valued as an equal source of knowledge by some relevant scientific bodies. In this context, changing the approach towards a knowledge-systems-based framework would contribute to the development of more concrete policies and strategies for adaptation of Arctic native communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment’s hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will affect precipitation and flood regimes. It is anticipated that the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) will be modified in a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify and analyze climate change influences on PMP and PMF in three watersheds with different climatic conditions across the province of Québec, Canada. Output data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was used to estimate PMP and Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) in future climate projections, which was then used to force the SWAT hydrological model to estimate PMF. PMP and PMF values were estimated for two time horizons each spanning 30 years: 1961–1990 (recent past) and 2041–2070 (future). PMP and PMF were separately analyzed for two seasons: summer-fall and spring. Results show that PMF in the watershed located in southern Québec would remain unchanged in the future horizon, but the trend for the watersheds located in the northeastern and northern areas of the province is an increase of up to 11%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam is a country with diverse terrain and climatic conditions and a dependency on hydropower for a significant proportion of its power needs and as such, is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. In this paper we apply SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) derived discharge simulation results coupled with regression analysis to estimate the performance of hydropower plants for Vietnam between 1995 and mid-2014 when both power supply and demand increased rapidly. Our approach is to examine the watershed formed from three large inter-boundary basins: The Red River, the Vietnam Coast and the Lower Mekong River, which have a total area of 977,964 km 2 . We then divide this area into 7,887 sub-basins with an average area of 131.6 km 2 (based on level 12 of HydroSHEDS/HydroBASINS datasets) and 53,024 Hydrological Response Units (HRUs). Next we simulate river flow for the 40 largest hydropower plants across Vietnam. Our validation process demonstrates that the simulated flows are significantly correlated with the gauged inflows into these dams and are able to serve as a good proxy for the inflows into hydropower dams in our baseline energy regression, which captures 87.7% of the variation in monthly power generation. In other results we estimate that large dams sacrifice on average around 18.2% of their contemporaneous production for the purpose of flood control. When we assess Vietnam’s current alignment of dams we find that the current cascades of large hydropower dams appear to be reasonably efficient: each MWh/day increase in upstream generation adds 0.146 MWh/day to downstream generation. The study provides evidence for the multiple benefits of a national system of large hydropower dams using a cascade design. Such a system may help overcome future adverse impacts from changes in climate conditions. However, our results show that there is still room for improvement in the harmonization of cascades in some basins. Finally, possible adverse hydro-ecological impacts due to the proliferation of large upstream dams, including those located beyond Vietnam’s border, need to be carefully considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In river basin systems, power asymmetry is often responsible of inefficient and unbalanced water allocations. Climate change and anthropogenic pressure will possibly exacerbate such disparities as the dominant party controls an increasingly limited shared resource. In this context, the deployment of cooperation mechanisms giving greater consideration to a balanced distribution of the benefits, while improving system-wide efficiency, may be desirable. This often implies the intervention of a third party (e.g., the river basin water authority) imposing normative constraints (e.g., a minimum release) on the party in the dominant position. However, this imposition will be more acceptable to the dominant party if coupled with some form of compensation. For a public agency, compensation may be burdensome, especially when the allowance is triggered by natural events whose timing and magnitude are highly uncertain. In this context, index-based insurance contracts may represent a viable alternative and reduce the cost of achieving socially desirable outcomes. In this paper, we develop a hybrid cooperation mechanism composed of i) a direct normative constraint imposed by a regulator, and ii) an indirect financial tool, an index-based insurance contract, to be used as a compensation measure. The approach is developed for the Lake Como multi-purpose water system, Italy: a complex Alpine river basin, supporting several hydropower reservoirs and finally flowing into a regulated lake which supplies water to several downstream uses, mostly irrigated agriculture. The system is characterized by a manifest geographic power asymmetry: the upstream hydropower companies are free to release their stored water in time irrespective of the timing of the downstream demands. This situation can lead to financial losses by the downstream users and undesirable social outcomes. Results suggest that financial instruments may offer a reliable and relatively inexpensive alternative to other forms of compensation, and thereby favor more balanced management of multi-purpose water systems characterized by power asymmetry. This finding is especially relevant in times when granting of licenses to use/withdrawal water are often being reviewed with attention to environmental protection and equity issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of the multi-sectoral and distributional economic impacts of rainfall shocks in the Awash river basin in Ethiopia. Using novel disaggregated data on crop production, we estimate the direct impacts of rainfall shocks on agriculture and then use a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate how these rainfall shocks propagate through the wider economy of the basin under three different climate change scenarios. The basin's economy and expanding agricultural sector are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rainfall shocks. A rainfall decrease scenario could lead to a 5% decline in the basin's GDP, with agricultural GDP standing to drop by as much as 10%. All sectors benefit from greater rainfall amounts. Distributional impacts depend on income group, with poor households accruing greater benefits relative to non-poor households under a scenario of additional rainfall and suffering proportionally lower income losses under a scenario of rainfall decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the hydrological impact of the seasonality of precipitation and maximum evaporation: seasonality is, after aridity, a second-order determinant of catchment water yield. Based on a data set of 171 French catchments (where aridity ranged between 0.2 and 1.2), we present a parameterization of three commonly-used water balance formulas (namely, Turc-Mezentsev, Tixeront-Fu and Oldekop formulas) to account for seasonality effects. We quantify the improvement of seasonality-based parameterization in terms of the reconstitution of both catchment streamflow and water yield. The significant improvement obtained (reduction of RMSE between 9 and 14% depending on the formula) demonstrates the importance of climate seasonality in the determination of long-term catchment water balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluvial archives in the upper-reach Yellow River basins provide important information about drainage history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) associated with geomorphologic evolution and climate change. However, the Pliocene fluvial strata within this region have not been studied in detail, hence limiting the understanding of the late Cenozoic development of regional fluvial systems. In this paper, we present the results of a study of the geochronology, sedimentology, and provenance of the fluvial sequence of the Wuquan Formation in the Lanzhou Basin in the northeastern TP. Magnetostratigraphic and cosmogenic nuclide burial ages indicate that the Wuquan Formation was deposited during 3.6–2.2 Ma. Furthermore, sedimentary facies, gravel composition, paleocurrent data, and detrital zircon U Pb age spectra reveal that the fluvial sequence resembles the terraces of the Yellow River in terms of source area, flow direction, and depositional environment. Our results indicate that a paleo-drainage system flowing out of the northeastern TP was established by ca. 3.6 Ma and that the upstream parts of the Yellow River must have developed subsequently from this paleo-drainage system. The late Pliocene drainage system fits well with the dramatic uplift of the northeastern TP, an intensified Asian summer monsoon, and global increase in erosion rates, which may reflect interactions between geomorphic evolution, tectonic deformation, and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing environmental disasters are creating significant uncertainty for farm families and their communities across the world. One site critically affected is the Murray-Darling Basin area of Australia, an area known as the food bowl of Australia. Following a lengthy drought at the turn of the century concerns were raised about water quality and river health. This led successive governments to introduce policies to systematically reduce water available for irrigated agriculture. The Murray-Darling Basin Plan was developed by the Commonwealth government and is designed to secure water savings from irrigators and to direct those water savings to the stressed natural environment. This paper focuses on the impact of these changes on irrigation dairy families and their communities in northern Victoria. Using a model designed to test the limits to adaptation, we draw out the constraints, limits and barriers to adaptation for dairy families and their communities coping with reduced water access. This model highlights the types of socially just and fair interventions necessary to assist adaptation and focuses attention on thresholds and traps that may prevent adaptation. The model is relevant to other areas where climate changes and environmental disasters are shaping inevitable change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and underlying surface change are two main factors affecting the hydrological cycle. In respect of climate change, precipitation alters not only in magnitude, but also in intensity, which can be represented by precipitation depth. To further understand the spatial variation of the impact of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation depth and the water storage capacity during 1960–2010, 224 catchments located from arid areas to humid areas across China were analyzed in this paper based on the Choudhury-Porporato equation within the Budyko hypothesis. The results show that underlying surface change is the major driving force of runoff change in the Songhua Basin, the Liaohe Basin and the Haihe Basin, while climate change dominates runoff change in other basins. Climate change causes runoff increase in most catchments, except for some catchments in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin. Specifically, changes in precipitation depth induce runoff increase in almost each catchment and show a considerable contribution rate (14.8% on average, larger than 20% in 32% catchments). The contribution of precipitation depth change has little correlation with the aridity index, while positively correlates to the significance of trend in precipitation depth. This study suggests that precipitation depth is an important aspect that should be taken into consideration in attribution of runoff change. The findings in this study provide a sight for future researches in attribution analysis within the Budyko framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial variability of the hydrological response is controlled by the interaction of two spatial variabilities: climatic forcing and physiographic characteristics. This paper investigates their impact on streamflow modelling throughout a large catchment. They are assessed by successively refining the spatial information of climatic inputs and model parameters, going from the lumped to the sub-catchment or mesh scale. The analysis is conducted according to a spatial split-sample test. For each resolution, the distributed model first calibrated on calibration station(s) is then evaluated in light of this(these) station(s) in addition to validation stations previously treated as ungauged. For that purpose, simulated and observed streamflows are compared focusing on four hydrological signatures: daily runoff, daily regime, flood and low flow. The above framework is applied at the daily time step over a French basin, the Loire catchment at Gien covering 35,707 km 2 , whose streamflow data are available at the catchment outlet and 105 interior points. The results show that spatially distributed climatic forcing greatly enhances the four signatures as the resolution increases, until the right rainfall volume is provided for each simulation point. By taking advantage of the interior calibration stations to spatialise the parameters, the model’s performance progresses again but to a lesser extent. Finally, the catchment’s hydrological behaviour is mainly driven by the spatial variability of the climatic inputs (around 90% over the validation stations), while that of the parameters seems to be of second order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]