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[Display omitted] • We develop a framework to estimate future Flood Regulation Service (FRS) dynamics. • The framework considers the joint impacts of both climate change and urbanization. • Future FRS supply–demand imbalance will continue to intensify. • Future impacts of climate change in Baiyangdian Lake Basin cannot be ignored. • Cities should actively adapt to climate change to reduce flood risks in the future. Estimating the supply–demand relationship's future dynamics and trend of Flood Regulation Service (FRS) is important for preventing flood risks and choose an appropriate future development path. Less attention has been given to assessing the future trends in this relationship under the joint influence of climate change and urbanization. This paper aims to quantify future trends in the FRS supply–demand relationship under the joint impacts of climate change and urbanization. To this end, we took the Baiyangdian Lake Basin as an example and developed a "Climate Change-Urbanization-FRS supply and demand" framework by combining future climate scenarios from the ScenarioMIP (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) dataset and socioeconomic data from the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to estimate the FRS supply and demand dynamics during the period from 2020 to 2050. The results show that the framework has a reasonable ability to estimate the FRS supply–demand relationship. The correlation coefficients between estimated supply–demand ratios and the historical values exceeded 0.9. The average FRS supply–demand ratio among the four scenarios shows a significantly downward trend between 2020 and 2050. The FRS is expected to decrease by 0.159 (36.6 %), resulting in the imbalanced area increasing from 38.3 km2 (4.1 % of the whole basin) to 11049.7 km2 (36.2 %). We believe that although urbanization is the dominant factor contributing to the intensified imbalance trend (with a contribution of 71.2 %), influences from climate change also cannot be ignored (with a contribution of 28.8 %). Therefore, adaptation actions to climate change should be actively taken to reduce urban flood risks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, archaeologists have studied how ancient humans have shaped, and been shaped by, their surrounding environments in an effort to provide valuable insight into the patterns of human-environment interaction during prehistoric and historical periods. Along the Heihe River in Hexi Corridor of northwest China, archaeologists have found many ancient cities that are good places to explore changes in human settlement patterns in relation to environment change in historical periods. In this paper, we present our investigation of seven ancient cities to clarify the chronology of these cities and their strategy for wood use in the area through the application of radiocarbon dating and charcoal identification. Our results suggest that the ages of many cities are younger than previous estimates, and humans mainly used Tamarix and mixed Tamarix and broad leaf trees in the lower and middle reaches of the Heihe River basin between ∼ AD 240–1380 respectively, and roughly matches the modern spatial distribution of natural woody vegetation in the area. In comparison to the results of archaeological, paleoclimatic and historical studies in Hexi Corridor, we propose that ancient human strategies for wood use and their impact on environment of the Heihe Basin are primarily relevant to human lifestyles rather than climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In northwestern China, many historical nomadic kingdoms and Chinese dynasties sought to control the Heihe River basin, an important location on the eastern part of the ancient Silk Road. Archaeologists have argued that changes in material culture are tied to the frequent turnover in polities in the area, but no published evidence supports these claims. In this paper, we evaluate the relative importance of environmental and political factors in determining the spatiotemporal pattern of archaeological sites in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River basin by using previously published high-resolution paleoclimate records and a variety of historical documents. Our results indicate that humans intensively exploited the Heihe River basin during Han dynasty (202BC–AD 220). Following the Han dynasty, during the Wei-Jin (AD 222–589) and Sui-Tang (AD 581–907) periods the number of archaeological sites. In the Western Xia-Yuan period (AD 1038–1368), people mainly settled in the lower reaches of the Heihe River basin and only returned to the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD 1368–1912). Although climate change and the local environment affected human activities in Heihe River basin, geopolitical events, such as forced mass migrations, are more responsible for influencing the distribution of archaeological sites over the past 2000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The climate elasticity of runoff is an important indicator that is used to quantify the relationship between changes in runoff and changes in climate variables. It is a function of both climate and catchment characteristics. Recently, Yang and Yang (2011) proposed an analytical derivation of climate elasticity (YY2011), in which a parameter n was used to represent the impact of the catchment characteristics. In China, both climate and catchment characteristics have large spatial variations. To understand the spatial variation of hydrologic response to climate change, this paper divided China into 210 catchments, further calculated the parameter n , and then estimated the climate elasticity and evaluated the contribution of climate change to runoff for each catchment. The results show that n ranges from 0.4 to 3.8 (with a mean of 1.3 and a standard deviation of 0.6), which has a logarithmic relationship with catchment slope; the precipitation elasticity ranges from 1.1 to 4.8 (with a mean of 1.9 and a standard deviation of 0.6), which shows a large regional variation, smaller values (1.1–2.0) mainly appearing in Southern China, the Songhua River basin and the Northwest, and larger values (2.1–4.8) mainly appearing in the Hai River basin, the Liao River basin and the Yellow River basin. In addition, climate contribution to runoff exhibits a large regional variation, the largest positive values (1.1–3.1%/a) occurring in the Northwest, the largest negative values (−1.0 to −0.5%/a) occurring in the Hai River basin and the middle reach of the Yellow River basin. In theory, the YY2011 method is a first-order approximation. The approximation underestimates the precipitation ( P ) contribution to runoff when P increases and overestimates that when P decreases, and the relative error has a median of ∼3% and a maximum of ∼20% when 10% precipitations change in those catchments of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explored the projected changes in precipitation, maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) based on 23 Global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) approach was firstly applied to correct the biases in the GCMs. Next, the future changes were investigated by analyzing the multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected dataset during 2025–2044 (near-term), 2045–2064 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term) periods, with reference to the baseline period 1995–2014, under three integrated scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results show that: (1) the biases in CMIP6 GCMs can be effectively corrected by EQM, and the MME performs better than individual models for each climatic variable. (2) Precipitation over the YRB from 2025 to 2100 is projected to increase at the rate of 9.66 mm/decade, 13.45 mm/decade, and 21.01 mm/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 10.41%, 10.66% and 15.80%, under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (3) T max (T min) over the YRB is projected to increase by 0.09 (0.07) °C/decade, 0.29 (0.27) °C/decade, and 0.66 (0.64) °C/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, T max (T min) averaged over the YRB is projected to increase by 1.75 (1.50) °C, 2.72 (2.54) °C and 5.04 (4.85) °C under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (4) Uncertainties in the projected precipitation and temperature over the YRB were reduced based on MME. But further researches, such as selecting the superior models with respect to the regional climate of the YRB from the CMIP6 and using the ensemble methods that assign weight based on the performance of each model, are still needed to provide more reliable climate projections. • Projected changes were explored by 23 CMIP6 GCMs under the three SSP-RCP scenarios. • Biases in the GCMs were corrected by Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method. • Multi-model ensemble (MME) was used to reduce the uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An observation-based natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method is proposed. • Human influence are quantified based on gridded socio-economic and land use data. • Climatic and anthropogenic influences on drought propagation are investigated. • Climate change accelerates the response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought. • Human activities delay the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought. It is crucial to investigate how a precipitation deficit is transformed into hydrological drought and how climate change and human activities affect this transformation process, which is helpful to gain a deep understanding of drought propagation process in this changing environment. This study proposed an observation-based natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The method mainly consists of the following three steps: (1) selection of natural catchments through analysis of trends and change points of hydro-meteorological data, as well as statistics analysis of human influence based on land use and socio-economic indicators data sets; (2) calculation of drought propagation characteristics (e.g., drought severity, duration, and propagation time) based on run theory and the Pearson correlation coefficient; and (3) comparison of drought propagation characteristics of natural catchments between undisturbed and disturbed periods to identify the impacts of climate change on drought propagation, and comparison of the propagation characteristics between natural and human-impacted catchments during the disturbed period to investigate human influence on drought propagation. The Laohahe basin (with eleven sub-catchments), located in northern China, was evaluated via the proposed procedure, and standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) were used to characterize meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is suitable tool for distinguishing natural and human-impacted catchments, and separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought propagation. Furthermore, the comparison results of different schemes show that climate change accelerates the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Laohahe basin, shortening it by approximately 3 months. Human activities, however, disturb and then delay the natural propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought, retarding it by 11–12 months. Although the Laohahe basin was selected as a case study in this paper, the proposed method can be applied in other regions as well to improve drought prediction and water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In this paper we proposed: (1) an algorithm of glacier melt, sublimation/evaporation, accumulation, mass balance and retreat; (2) a dynamic Hydrological Response Unit approach for incorporating the algorithm into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model; and (3) simulated the transient glacier retreat and its impacts on streamflow at basin scale. Application of the enhanced SWAT model in the Manas River Basin (MRB) in the Tianshan Mountains in northwest China, shows that the approach is viable as evidenced by a Nash–Sutcliff efficiency of 0.65 and a percent bias of −3.7% for daily streamflow and water balance, respectively. The results indicate that the glacier area decreased by 11% during the simulation period from 1961 to 1999, which is within the range of records from other glaciers. On average, glacier melt contributed 25% to streamflow, although glacier area accounts for only 14% of the catchment drainage area in the MRB. Glacier melt was positively correlated to temperature change (R 2 =0.70, statistical significance P <0.001) and negatively correlated to precipitation (R 2 =0.20, statistical significance P <0.005). The results indicate that glacier melt was more sensitive to temperature change than to precipitation change, implying that modeling the effects of climate change with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation should be further studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As typical inland river basins in China, the Ürümqi River Basin and the Aksu River Basin were selected as study areas in this paper. In the past several decades, the climate has had a tendency to change from warm-drying to warm-wetting, with a coinstantaneous response by mountain glacier meltwater of these areas. Comparing questionnaire survey data with scientific observation, this study focused on the character of public perception on climate and cryosphere changes, the changes' possible impacts on water resources, and adaptation measure choices by the public. Results presented in this study showed that: 1) Perceptions of most respondents on climate and cryosphere changes conform to objective facts, but some of them still have suspicion relating to these environmental changes; 2) Even though increasing precipitation and glacier meltwater has caused an increased water supply, due to the increasing demand of the unit area water for agriculture (industrial and living water demand may be involved), water shortage is still a big problem in sustainable development. Because of unemployment or the inconspicuous benefits of water-saving measures, the wasting of water resources may be a serious problem in these areas; 3) Most people preferred to choose the adaptation measures implemented by government and policy-making departments. Some people showed more preference for measures avoiding unfavorable natural environmental consequences. Public perceptions on the urgency of individual participation are still inadequate. Some of the measures should be communicated broadly and warmly encouraged; 4) Public choices of adaptation measures for climate and cryosphere change are impacted by demographic factors such as age, gender, region, nationality, education and occupation. The impacts of such factors are complicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aeolian sandy land in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin has attracted the attention of many researchers. However, its dynamics as well as its relevance to various factors has rarely been reported with integrated studies. In this paper, spatio-temporal dynamics of the aeolian sandy land in the basin was studied by interpreting Landsat images acquired from 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2008 with the help of geographic information system (GIS) technology. Spatially, the results showed a decreasing trend from west to east, which is from the Maquanhe wide valley in the headwater area to the middle and lower reaches of the river basin. Temporally, aeolian sandy lands in the basin showed a slow increasing trend, with an increase of 10.5% during the 1975–2008 period, spreading most quickly during the period of 1990–1999. The factors related to dynamics of aeolian sandy land were analyzed from the perspectives of two driving factors, climate changes and human activities. The climate-dominated natural factors are the internal driving forces for the development of aeolian sandy lands, and the human factors are the external driving forces responsible for the increase of the aeolian sandy land area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the spatial variation of sediment yield in the Yangtze basin in China, a large basin with complex geology, climate, land-use history, and extensive sediment monitoring. 287 stations with drainage area less than 10,000km2 were used to study the scale effects of sediment yield. In order to develop scale relations for regional sediment yield, the whole study area was divided into eight sub-basins. Relation between specific sediment yield and drainage basin area was built for each sub-basin. Regional scaling relation was analyzed based on landforms, geology, lithology and land-use of each sub-basin. Three regional trends were identified in relation to the drainage area: (1) a declining trend, due to soil erosion on heavily cultivated steep land and the storage of sediment in floodplains; (2) a flat trend, due to mass movement on the upper reach and heavy agricultural disturbance on the middle and lower reaches; and (3) an increasing trend, due to downstream recruitment of sediment from land downstream where slope farming and deforestation occurred. Using these developed relations, areally adjusted sediment yield maps were created over the entire Yangtze basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Water discharge and sediment load have changed continuously during the last half century in the Yellow River basin, China. In the present paper, data from 7 river gauging stations and 175 meteorological stations are analyzed in order to estimate quantitatively the contributions of human activities and climate change to hydrological response. Coefficients of water discharge (C w ) and sediment load (C s ) are calculated for the baseline period of 1950s–1960s according to the correlations between the respective hydrological series and regional precipitation. Consequently, the natural water discharge and natural sediment load time series are reconstructed from 1960s–2008. Inter-annual impacts are then separated from the impacts of human activities and climate change on the hydrological response of different regions of the Yellow River basin. It is found that human activities have the greatest influence on changes to the hydrological series of water discharge and sediment load, no matter whether the effect is negative or positive. Moreover, the impact of human activities is considerably greater on water discharge than sediment load. During 1970–2008, climate change and human activities respectively contribute 17% and 83% to the reduction in water discharge, and 14% and 86% to the reduction in sediment yield in the Upper reaches of Yellow River basin; The corresponding relative contributions in the Middle reaches are 71% and 29% to reductions in water discharge, and 48% and 52% to reductions in sediment load. Moreover, it is observed that the impacts of human activities on the whole basin are enhanced with time. In the 2000s, the impact of human activities exceeds that of climate change in the 2000s, with human activities directly responsible for 55% and 54% of the reductions in water discharge and sediment load in the whole basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Long monthly streamflow series of three control hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were analyzed by using the scanning t-test and the scanning F-test. Possible implications of the changing properties of streamflow variations for the water resource management of the Pearl River Delta are also discussed. The results indicated that: 1) more complicated changes were observed in terms of the second center moment when compared to the first original moment. More significant abrupt changes of the second center moment imply more sensitive response of streamflow stability to climate changes and human activities; 2) abrupt behaviors of the first (second) center moment of the streamflow variations tend to be more sensitive to climate changes and/or human activities in the larger river basin when compared to those in the smaller river basin. These phenomena are attributed to buffering functions of more storage space of longer river channel, and more complicated and longer runoff yield and concentration processes in the river basin of larger drainage area; 3) annual minimum streamflow of the Pearl River basin tends to be increasing. This will be helpful for better human mitigation of the salinity intrusion in dry seasons across the Pearl River Delta. Annual maximum streamflow, when compared to annual minimum streamflow, shows larger-magnitude variability reflected by larger standard deviation, implying unfavorable conditions for flood mitigation in the Pearl River Delta. The results of this paper are of scientific and practical merits for water resource management and sound human mitigation to water hazards across the Pearl River Delta, and also are a good case study for similar researches in other river deltas in the world under the changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Miyun Reservoir is the main raw water source for Beijing’s domestic water supply. Flow discharge to Miyun Reservoir decreased drastically over a 50-year period, from 1956 to 2005, and had seriously affected Beijing’s water supply. Climate variability and human activity had been identified as the two main reasons for the decrease in flow. Here, climate variability refers to changes in precipitation and temperature. Impact of human activity includes direct withdrawal of water (referred to as “direct abstraction” in this paper) from the river (primary) or groundwater and indirect impact due to man-made changes in land use and vegetation in the upstream of the reservoir. According to the historical record, “direct abstraction” from the upstream of the reservoir has increased significantly since 1984. The study period was split into two sub-periods, from 1956 to 1983 and from 1984 to 2005. Based on the historical record, annual runoff in the upstream catchment of Miyun Reservoir (i.e., inflow into the reservoir) had decreased from 90.3mm to 41.8mm for the two sub-periods, a decrease of 48.5mm. Over the same period, average annual “direct abstraction” increased from 2.2mm to 13.4mm, an increase of 11.2mm. The latter accounted for 23% (11.2mm/48.5mm) of the decrease in inflow into the reservoir. This study utilised: (1) a distributed hydrological model (geomorphology-based hydrological model, or GBHM) and (2) a climate elasticity model to conduct a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and the indirect impact of human activity on the inflow into the reservoir. Simulation results of GBHM and the climate elasticity model showed that climate impact was accountable for about 55% and 51% of the decrease in reservoir inflow, respectively. The indirect impact of human activity (mainly man-made land use and vegetation changes) accounted for 18% of the decrease in reservoir inflow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Evapotranspiration is an important flux term in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions. Thus, analysis of the temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) will help us to understand climate change and its effect on hydrology. In this paper, we present an analysis of the monthly ET0 at 15 stations during 1961–2005 in the Taoer River basin in China, calculated by the FAO Penman–Monteith method. We derived the growing season and annual total ET0 time series and using the Mann–Kendall method, moving t test and Morlet wavelet conducted comprehensive time series analysis to characterize significance test, abrupt change and period in the ET0 data sets. The results present that: (i) in terms of the seasonal cycle, monthly ET0 reaches its peak in May and growing season ET0 accounts for 60.7% of annual total. Long term growing season ET0 fluctuates in accordance with annual ET0, both having turning points in 1982 and 1993; (ii) with respect to the long term persistence, the trends for growing season and annual ET0 show the same spatial patterns: high positive values in the west study area in the upper reach and negative values in the Southeast study area in the lower reach. The spatial distribution of annual tendencies suggests an influence from the altitude and latitude; (iii) for individual station, abrupt changes in annual ET0 are more pronounced than those in growing season ET0. The timings for the abrupt changes in ET0 series at individual stations are consistent with those in regional ET0. Abrupt changes detected in the early 1980s are all increasing changes, while those in earlier 1990 are all decreasing changes; and (iv) based on the Morlet wavelet analysis, there exist significant periods of 1, 3 and 7.3 years in annual ET0 series and significant 1 year period and 7.3 years period in growing season ET0 series. Maximum air temperature, mean air temperature, relative humidity and bright sunshine hours are main climate variables responsible for the periodicity in ET0. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper addresses the emergent issues by the case study of Haihe River Basin in North China. The advantage of the water international study and the background for the cause of these problems from natural change and in particular human activity are analyzed. The key points are addressed as four aspects: (a) the study of the water cycle process impacted by climate change and high intensity human activity; (b) water utilization related to new economic partner change, such as saving water model; (c) study on eco-hydrology, and the interaction of water and ecology impacted by climate change and human activity; and (d) reasonable water allocation that includs water diversion from south to north and saving water issue in the local areas. Several suggestions are proposed both on the study on the water cycle, which is a very important base of water security in north China, and on the application study of water resources and eco-environmental rehabilitation. These key issues will benefit both the advantage of water science and the sustainable development in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evapotranspiration is an important component and key link of river basin water cycles and plant hydrological processes, and is a core issue in global climate change research. It is not only an important way to understand the energy and water consumption of permafrost regions, but also is an important channel to master the water cycle and energy balance in cold regions. In this paper, multiple linear regression analysis method and weighted comprehensive analysis of major factors method were used to investigate the variation characteristics and impact factors of evapotranspiration in the Genhe River Basin. The results showed the following: (1) The monthly average evapotranspiration in the Genhe River Basin during the freezing-thawing periods in 1980–2017 was 28.29 mm. Compared with the freezing-thawing periods, the total evapotranspiration in the growing seasons was much higher than that in the freezing-thawing periods, with monthly average evapotranspiration of 67.71 mm; (2) The main factors affecting evapotranspiration in the Genhe River Basin were precipitation and temperature. During the freezing-thawing periods, the variation in evapotranspiration in May was mainly determined by temperature. In the growing season, precipitation was the main factors affecting evapotranspiration in June. This will lay a foundation for clarifying the relationship between permafrost–climate change–hydrologic cycle in the permafrost active layer during the land surface process, so as to provide some basic data and important scientific basis for the comprehensive study of the hydrologic process and its impact on climate, ecology, water resources and environment in the permafrost area. • Evapotranspiration variability in permafrost zone have been analyzed in growing season and freezing and thawing period. • The influencing factors of evapotranspiration in a long term have been explored. • This study enriches the data of eco-hydrology research in data-deficient areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to investigate the projected regional responses of univariate and bivariate behaviors of extreme precipitation to climate change over the upper-middle Huaihe River Basin. Based on twelve GCM outputs under historical, RCP4.5 and the observations at 32 rainfall stations, the equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method (EDCDFm) was utilized to bias correct daily precipitation during the historical (1961–2005) and future (2021–2080) periods. Four precipitation indices combinations were introduced based on eight precipitation indices to characterize the regional-scale changes of precipitation events, which designate the duration, intensity and amount of heavy and weak precipitation in a year. Their dependence structures were captured by Copulas. Kendall return period (KRP) were applied to discuss hazard scenarios and we quantified the spatial variability of KRPs under different marginal values. The results indicated that projected precipitation characteristics including the average intensity, the amount of annual precipitation, the intensity and amount of extreme precipitation together with annual extremes displayed increasing trends, while the changes of consecutive wet and dry days did not present pronounced trends. Decreased KRPs in the vast majority of the territory manifested that the frequency of simultaneous floods and droughts in a year as well as that of extreme heavy precipitation events would augment. Obvious spatial heterogeneity of the changes of KRP was partly attributed to the topography difference, especially the coastal areas along the main stream of the Huaihe River. Consequently, there will be a higher risk of water resources-related issues in this region for upcoming decades. • Significant decreases will occur in the intensity and amount of heavy precipitation for upcoming decades. • Change rates of precipitation indices combinations illustrate obvious spatial heterogeneity. • The frequency of simultaneous floods and droughts in a year and that of extreme heavy precipitation events will augment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The rainfall-runoff relationship has changed under climate change and human activities in the TRH region. • The impacts climate indicators of rainfall-runoff ratio in the sub-basins of TRH region were different. • The contribution rates of human activity in the YRB were a little higher than that in the YARB. Identifying the impact of climate change and human activities on rainfall-runoff relationship in the Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region is essential for water source conservation, ecological security, and biodiversity maintenance of China and East Asia. In this paper, the runoff-rainfall ratio was used as the index of rainfall-runoff relationship. Different methods were employed to identify the impact indicators and quantitative assessment of rainfall-runoff relationship from 1957 to 2016. The results are the following: (1) the rainfall-runoff relationship has changed in the source regions of Yangtze River basin (YARB) and Yellow River (YRB), and runoff-rainfall ratio has increased by 2.9% and decreased by 3.2%, respectively; (2) the main climate indicators of runoff-rainfall ratio were rainfall, potential evaporation and sunshine hours in the YARB, and rainfall, potential evaporation and temperature in the YRB; (3) the contribution rates of human activity in the YRB were a little higher than that in the YARB, and the contribution rates of climate change and human activity were 90.9% and 9.1% in the YARB and 42.9% and 57.1% in the YRB. The results can provide invaluable information for managing water resources and taking ecological protection measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]