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Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), with blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) contrast, is a widely used technique for studying the human brain. However, it is an indirect measure of underlying neuronal activity and the processes that link this activity to BOLD signals are still a topic of much debate. In order to relate findings from fMRI research to other measures of neuronal activity it is vital to understand the underlying neurovascular coupling mechanism. Currently, there is no consensus on the relative roles of synaptic and spiking activity in the generation of the BOLD response. Here we designed a modelling framework to investigate different neurovascular coupling mechanisms. We use Electroencephalographic (EEG) and fMRI data from a visual stimulation task together with biophysically informed mathematical models describing how neuronal activity generates the BOLD signals. These models allow us to non-invasively infer the degree of local synaptic and spiking activity in the healthy human brain. In addition, we use Bayesian model comparison to decide between neurovascular coupling mechanisms. We show that the BOLD signal is dependent upon both the synaptic and spiking activity but that the relative contributions of these two inputs are dependent upon the underlying neuronal firing rate. When the underlying neuronal firing is low then the BOLD response is best explained by synaptic activity. However, when the neuronal firing rate is high then both synaptic and spiking activity are required to explain the BOLD signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This ''best model'' approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]