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Many complex physical systems exhibit a rich variety of discrete behavioural modes. Often, the system complexity limits the applicability of standard modelling tools. Hence, understanding the underlying physics of different behaviours and distinguishing between them is challenging. Although traditional machine learning techniques could predict and classify behaviour well, typically they do not provide any meaningful insight into the underlying physics of the system. In this paper we present a novel method for extracting physically meaningful clusters of discrete behaviour from limited experimental observations. This method obtains a set of physically plausible functions that both facilitate behavioural clustering and aid in system understanding. We demonstrate the approach on the V-shaped falling paper system, a new falling paper type system that exhibits four distinct behavioural modes depending on a few morphological parameters. Using just 49 experimental observations, the method discovered a set of candidate functions that distinguish behaviours with an error of 2.04%, while also aiding insight into the physical phenomena driving each behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting and modeling human behavior and finding trends within human decision-making processes is a major problem of social science. Rock Paper Scissors (RPS) is the fundamental strategic question in many game theory problems and real-world competitions. Finding the right approach to beat a particular human opponent is challenging. Here we use an AI (artificial intelligence) algorithm based on Markov Models of one fixed memory length (abbreviated as "single AI") to compete against humans in an iterated RPS game. We model and predict human competition behavior by combining many Markov Models with different fixed memory lengths (abbreviated as "multi-AI"), and develop an architecture of multi-AI with changeable parameters to adapt to different competition strategies. We introduce a parameter called "focus length" (a positive number such as 5 or 10) to control the speed and sensitivity for our multi-AI to adapt to the opponent's strategy change. The focus length is the number of previous rounds that the multi-AI should look at when determining which Single-AI has the best performance and should choose to play for the next game. We experimented with 52 different people, each playing 300 rounds continuously against one specific multi-AI model, and demonstrated that our strategy could win against more than 95% of human opponents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Big Data analysis algorithms is complementary to theory-driven analysis approaches and becoming more popular also in social sciences. This paper describes the use of Big Data and computational approaches in social sciences by bibliometric analyses of articles indexed between 2015 and 2020 in Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI) of the Web of Science repository. We have analysed especially the recent research direction called Computational Social Sciences (CSS) that bridges computer analytical approaches with social science challenges, generating new methodologies of Big Data and AI analytics for social sciences. The results indicate that AI and Big Data practices are not confined to CSS only and are diffused in a wide variety of disciplines under Social Sciences and are made use of in many main research lines as well. Thus, the anticipated overlap between the Social Sciences & AI specialization and CSS has yet to be crystallised. Moreover, the impact of computational social science studies is not permeated to social science citation networks yet. Lastly, we demonstrate that the AI and Big Data publications that appear under the SSCI index are more oriented towards computational studies than addressing social science concepts, concerns, and challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between phenotypic plasticity, e.g. learning, and evolution is an important topic both in Evolutionary Biology and Machine Learning. The evolution of learning is commonly studied in Evolutionary Biology, while the use of an evolutionary process to improve learning is of interest to the field of Machine Learning. This paper takes a different point of view by studying the effect of learning on the evolutionary process, the so-called Baldwin effect. A well-studied result in the literature about the Baldwin effect is that learning affects the speed of convergence of the evolutionary process towards some genetic configuration, which corresponds to the environment-induced plastic response. This paper demonstrates that learning can change the outcome of evolution, i.e., lead to a genetic configuration that does not correspond to the plastic response. Results are obtained both analytically and experimentally by means of an agent-based model of a foraging task, in an environment where the distribution of resources follows seasonal cycles and the foraging success on different resource types is conditioned by trade-offs that can be evolved and learned. This paper attempts to answer a question that has been overlooked: whether learning has an effect on what genotypic traits are evolved, i.e. the selection of a trait that enables a plastic response changes the selection pressure on a different trait, in what could be described as co-evolution between different traits in the same genome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several lifetime distributions have played an important role to fit survival data. However, for some of these models, the computation of maximum likelihood estimators is quite difficult due to presence of flat regions in the search space, among other factors. Several well-known derivative-based optimization tools are unsuitable for obtaining such estimates. To circumvent this problem, we introduce the AdequacyModel computational library version 2.0.0 for the R statistical environment with two major contributions: a general optimization technique based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method (with a minor modification of the original algorithm) and a set of statistical measures for assessment of the adequacy of the fitted model. This library is very useful for researchers in probability and statistics and has been cited in various papers in these areas. It serves as the basis for the Newdistns library (version 2.1) published in an impact journal in the area of computational statistics, see . It is also the basis of the Wrapped library (version 2.0), see . A third package making use of the AdequacyModel library can be found in . In addition, the proposed library has proved to be very useful for maximizing log-likelihood functions with complex search regions. The library provides a greater control of the optimization process by introducing a stop criterion based on a minimum number of iterations and the variance of a given proportion of optimal values. We emphasize that the new library can be used not only in statistics but in physics and mathematics as proved in several examples throughout the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recidivism prediction context, there is no consensus on which modeling strategy should be followed for obtaining an optimal prediction model. In previous papers, a range of statistical and machine learning techniques were benchmarked on recidivism data with a binary outcome. However, two important tree ensemble methods, namely gradient boosting and random forests were not extensively evaluated. In this paper, we further explore the modeling potential of these techniques in the binary outcome criminal prediction context. Additionally, we explore the predictive potential of classical statistical and machine learning methods for censored time-to-event data. A range of statistical manually specified statistical and (semi-)automatic machine learning models is fitted on Dutch recidivism data, both for the binary outcome case and censored outcome case. To enhance generalizability of results, the same models are applied to two historical American data sets, the North Carolina prison data. For all datasets, (semi-) automatic modeling in the binary case seems to provide no improvement over an appropriately manually specified traditional statistical model. There is however evidence of slightly improved performance of gradient boosting in survival data. Results on the reconviction data from two sources suggest that both statistical and machine learning should be tried out for obtaining an optimal model. Even if a flexible black-box model does not improve upon the predictions of a manually specified model, it can serve as a test whether important interactions are missing or other misspecification of the model are present and can thus provide more security in the modeling process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract There has been a recent resurgence in the area of explainable artificial intelligence as researchers and practitioners seek to provide more transparency to their algorithms. Much of this research is focused on explicitly explaining decisions or actions to a human observer, and it should not be controversial to say that looking at how humans explain to each other can serve as a useful starting point for explanation in artificial intelligence. However, it is fair to say that most work in explainable artificial intelligence uses only the researchers' intuition of what constitutes a 'good' explanation. There exist vast and valuable bodies of research in philosophy, psychology, and cognitive science of how people define, generate, select, evaluate, and present explanations, which argues that people employ certain cognitive biases and social expectations to the explanation process. This paper argues that the field of explainable artificial intelligence can build on this existing research, and reviews relevant papers from philosophy, cognitive psychology/science, and social psychology, which study these topics. It draws out some important findings, and discusses ways that these can be infused with work on explainable artificial intelligence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding expression levels of proteins and their interactions is a key factor to diagnose and explain the Down syndrome which can be considered as the most prevalent reason of intellectual disability in human beings. In the previous studies, the expression levels of 77 proteins obtained from normal genotype control mice and from trisomic Ts65Dn mice have been analyzed after training in contextual fear conditioning with and without injection of the memantine drug using statistical methods and machine learning techniques. Recent studies have also pointed out that there may be a linkage between the Down syndrome and the immune system. Thus, the research presented in this paper aim at in silico identification of proteins which are significant to the learning process and the immune system and to derive the most accurate model for classification of mice. In this paper, the features are selected by implementing forward feature selection method after preprocessing step of the dataset. Later, deep neural network, gradient boosting tree, support vector machine and random forest classification methods are implemented to identify the accuracy. It is observed that the selected feature subsets not only yield higher accuracy classification results but also are composed of protein responses which are important for the learning and memory process and the immune system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing and predicting the trend of price fluctuation has been receiving more and more attention, as price risk has become the focus of risk control research in heating oil futures market. A novel time series prediction model combined with the complex network method is put forward in the paper. First of all, this paper counts the cumulative time interval of different nodes in the network, and fits its growth trend with the Fourier model. Then a novel price fluctuation prediction model is established based on the effective information such as some topology properties extracted from the network. The results show that the Fourier model can predict the emergence time of new nodes in the next stage, and the established price fluctuation prediction model can infer the names of nodes in the prediction interval, so as to determine the forward-looking behavior of price evolution. Besides, liken to the NAR neural network, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method also show superiority, which has important theoretical value and academic significance for early warning and prediction of price behavior in the heating oil futures market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glioma detection and segmentation is a challenging task for radiologists and clinicians. The research reported in this paper seeks to develop a better clinical decision support algorithm for clinicians diagnosis. This paper presents a probabilistic method for detection and segmentation between abnormal tissue regions and brain tumour (tumour core and edema) portions from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). A framework is constructed to learn structure of undirected graphical models that can represent the spatial relationships among variables and apply it to glioma segmentation. Compared with the pixel of image, the superpixel is more consistent with human visual cognition and contains less redundancy, thus, the superpixels are considered as the basic unit of structure learning and glioma segmentation scheme. ℓ1-regularization techniques are applied to learn the appropriate structure for modeling graphical models. Conditional Random Fields (CRF) are used to model the spatial interactions among image superpixel regions and their measurements. A number of features including statistics features, the combined features from the local binary pattern as well as gray level run length, curve features, and fractal features were extracted from each superpixel. The features are then passed by ℓ1-regularization to ensure a robust classification. The proposed method is compared with support vector machine and Fuzzy c-means to classify each superpixel into normal and abnormal tissue. The proposed system is tested for the presence of low grade as well as high grade glioma tumors on images collected from BRATS2013, BRATS2015 data set and Henan Provincial People’s Hospital (HNPPH) data set. The experiments performed provides similarity between segmented and truth image up to 91.5% by correlation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the convergence of various broadcasting systems, the amount of content available in mobile terminals including IPTV has significantly increased. In this paper, we propose a system that enables users to schedule programs considering both section video clips and full video clips based on the user detection method with similar preference. And, since the system constituting the contents can be classified according to the program, the proposed method can store a program desired by the user, and thus create and schedule a kind of individual channel. Experimental results show that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy; this is accomplished by comparing existing channel recommendation methods with the program recommendation methods proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As researchers use computational methods to study complex social behaviors at scale, the validity of this computational social science depends on the integrity of the data. On July 2, 2015, Jason Baumgartner published a dataset advertised to include “every publicly available Reddit comment” which was quickly shared on Bittorrent and the Internet Archive. This data quickly became the basis of many academic papers on topics including machine learning, social behavior, politics, breaking news, and hate speech. We have discovered substantial gaps and limitations in this dataset which may contribute to bias in the findings of that research. In this paper, we document the dataset, substantial missing observations in the dataset, and the risks to research validity from those gaps. In summary, we identify strong risks to research that considers user histories or network analysis, moderate risks to research that compares counts of participation, and lesser risk to machine learning research that avoids making representative claims about behavior and participation on Reddit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recommender systems are vulnerable to shilling attacks. Forged user-generated content data, such as user ratings and reviews, are used by attackers to manipulate recommendation rankings. Shilling attack detection in recommender systems is of great significance to maintain the fairness and sustainability of recommender systems. The current studies have problems in terms of the poor universality of algorithms, difficulty in selection of user profile attributes, and lack of an optimization mechanism. In this paper, a shilling behaviour detection structure based on abnormal group user findings and rating time series analysis is proposed. This paper adds to the current understanding in the field by studying the credibility evaluation model in-depth based on the rating prediction model to derive proximity-based predictions. A method for detecting suspicious ratings based on suspicious time windows and target item analysis is proposed. Suspicious rating time segments are determined by constructing a time series, and data streams of the rating items are examined and suspicious rating segments are checked. To analyse features of shilling attacks by a group user’s credibility, an abnormal group user discovery method based on time series and time window is proposed. Standard testing datasets are used to verify the effect of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In developing nations, many expanding cities are facing challenges that result from the overwhelming numbers of people and vehicles. Collecting real-time, reliable and precise traffic flow information is crucial for urban traffic management. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an adaptive model that can assess the real-time vehicle counts on urban roads using computer vision technologies. This paper proposes an automatic real-time background update algorithm for vehicle detection and an adaptive pattern for vehicle counting based on the virtual loop and detection line methods. In addition, a new robust detection method is introduced to monitor the real-time traffic congestion state of road section. A prototype system has been developed and installed on an urban road for testing. The results show that the system is robust, with a real-time counting accuracy exceeding 99% in most field scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban spaces have a great impact on how people’s emotion and behaviour. There are number of factors that impact our brain responses to a space. This paper presents a novel urban place recommendation approach, that is based on modelling in-situ EEG data. The research investigations leverages on newly affordable Electroencephalogram (EEG) headsets, which has the capability to sense mental states such as meditation and attention levels. These emerging devices have been utilized in understanding how human brains are affected by the surrounding built environments and natural spaces. In this paper, mobile EEG headsets have been used to detect mental states at different types of urban places. By analysing and modelling brain activity data, we were able to classify three different places according to the mental state signature of the users, and create an association map to guide and recommend people to therapeutic places that lessen brain fatigue and increase mental rejuvenation. Our mental states classifier has achieved accuracy of (%90.8). NeuroPlace breaks new ground not only as a mobile ubiquitous brain monitoring system for urban computing, but also as a system that can advise urban planners on the impact of specific urban planning policies and structures. We present and discuss the challenges in making our initial prototype more practical, robust, and reliable as part of our on-going research. In addition, we present some enabling applications using the proposed architecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to highlight the major up to date findings and research trends on the topic of artificial intelligence (AI) from a theoretical perspective, analysed in association with the human-machine interaction challenges. The existing research and scholarly literature display quite heterogenous approaches on these topics, and only a few of them tackle the social sciences view on the matter. In conclusion, there is a need for a more specific approach from the socio-psychological perspective, especially in topics concerning human centricity, human training at work, personality variables and other indicators when using AI devices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock price prediction is a popular yet challenging task and deep learning provides the means to conduct the mining for the different patterns that trigger its dynamic movement. In this paper, the task is to predict the close price for 25 companies enlisted at the Bucharest Stock Exchange, from a novel data set introduced herein. Towards this scope, two traditional deep learning architectures are designed in comparison: a long short-memory network and a temporal convolutional neural model. Based on their predictions, a trading strategy, whose decision to buy or sell depends on two different thresholds, is proposed. A hill climbing approach selects the optimal values for these parameters. The prediction of the two deep learning representatives used in the subsequent trading strategy leads to distinct facets of gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the development of computer science, deep learning is held as competent enough to solve the problem of inference and learning in high dimensional space. Therefore, it has received unprecedented attention from both the academia and the business community. Compared with CPU/GPU, FPGA has attracted much attention for its high-energy efficiency, short development cycle and reconfigurability in the aspect of deep learning algorithm. However, because of the limited research on OpenCL optimization on FPGA of deep learning algorithms, OpenCL tools and models applied to CPU/GPU cannot be directly used on FPGA. This makes it difficult for software programmers to use FPGA when implementing deep learning algorithms for a rewarding performance. To solve this problem, this paper proposed an OpenCL computational model based on FPGA template architecture to optimize the time-consuming convolution layer in deep learning. The comparison between the program applying the computational model and the corresponding optimization program provided by Xilinx indicates that the former is 8-40 times higher than the latter in terms of performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing algorithms of speech-based deception detection are severely restricted by the lack of sufficient number of labelled data. However, a large amount of easily available unlabelled data has not been utilized in reality. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a semi-supervised additive noise autoencoder model for deception detection. This model updates and optimizes the semi-supervised autoencoder and it consists of two layers of encoder and decoder, and a classifier. Firstly, it changes the activation function of the hidden layer in network according to the characteristics of the deception speech. Secondly, in order to prevent over-fitting during training, the specific ratio dropout is added at each layer cautiously. Finally, we directly connected the supervised classification task in the output of encoder to make the network more concise and efficient. Using the feature set specified by the INTERSPEECH 2009 Emotion Challenge, the experimental results on Columbia-SRI-Colorado (CSC) corpus and our own deception corpus show that the proposed model can achieve more advanced performance than other alternative methods with only a small amount of labelled data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of the internet, social media has become an essential tool for getting information, and attracted a large number of people join the social media platforms because of its low cost, accessibility and amazing content. It greatly enriches our life. However, its rapid development and widespread also have provided an excellent convenience for the range of fake news, people are constantly exposed to fake news and suffer from it all the time. Fake news usually uses hyperbole to catch people’s eyes with dishonest intention. More importantly, it often misleads the reader and causes people to have wrong perceptions of society. It has the potential for negative impacts on society and individuals. Therefore, it is significative research on detecting fake news. In the paper, we built a model named SMHA-CNN (Self Multi-Head Attention-based Convolutional Neural Networks) that can judge the authenticity of news with high accuracy based only on content by using convolutional neural networks and self multi-head attention mechanism. In order to prove its validity, we conducted experiments on a public dataset and achieved a precision rate of 95.5% with a recall rate of 95.6% under the 5-fold cross-validation. Our experimental result indicates that the model is more effective at detecting fake news. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial robots are a strategic future technology and an important part of the development of artificial intelligence, and they are a necessary means for the intelligent transformation of manufacturing industry. Based on global industrial robot trade data from 1998 to 2017, this paper applies the dynamic complex network analysis method to reveal the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and trade status evolution of the global industrial robot trade network. The results show that the global industrial robot network density has steadily increased, and the industrial robot trade has been characterized by ‘diversification’. The number of major industrial robot exporters in the world is increasing, and the import market is increasingly diversified. The export market structure is relatively tight, the centrality of the global industrial robot trade network shows a downward trend, and the dissimilarity of the ‘core-edge’ clusters decreases year by year. The trade status of ‘catch-up’ countries represented by China has rapidly increased. However, Japan, Germany, and Italy are still in the central position of the industrial robot trade. Moreover, trade of the ‘catch-up’ countries’ is dominated by imports, and exports of industrial robot products are insufficient. Finally, policy suggestions are provided according to the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Filter or screening methods are often used as a preprocessing step for reducing the number of variables used by a learning algorithm in obtaining a classification or regression model. While there are many such filter methods, there is a need for an objective evaluation of these methods. Such an evaluation is needed to compare them with each other and also to answer whether they are at all useful, or a learning algorithm could do a better job without them. For this purpose, many popular screening methods are partnered in this paper with three regression learners and five classification learners and evaluated on ten real datasets to obtain accuracy criteria such as R-square and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The obtained results are compared through curve plots and comparison tables in order to find out whether screening methods help improve the performance of learning algorithms and how they fare with each other. Our findings revealed that the screening methods were useful in improving the prediction of the best learner on two regression and two classification datasets out of the ten datasets evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Big web data from sources including online news and Twitter are good resources for investigating deep learning. However, collected news articles and tweets almost certainly contain data unnecessary for learning, and this disturbs accurate learning. This paper explores the performance of word2vec Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify news articles and tweets into related and unrelated ones. Using two word embedding algorithms of word2vec, Continuous Bag-of-Word (CBOW) and Skip-gram, we constructed CNN with the CBOW model and CNN with the Skip-gram model. We measured the classification accuracy of CNN with CBOW, CNN with Skip-gram, and CNN without word2vec models for real news articles and tweets. The experimental results indicated that word2vec significantly improved the accuracy of the classification model. The accuracy of the CBOW model was higher and more stable when compared to that of the Skip-gram model. The CBOW model exhibited better performance on news articles, and the Skip-gram model exhibited better performance on tweets. Specifically, CNN with word2vec models was more effective on news articles when compared to that on tweets because news articles are typically more uniform when compared to tweets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The popularity of online information generally experiences a rising and falling evolution. This paper considers the “burst”, “peak”, and “fade” key events together as a representative summary of popularity evolution. We propose a novel prediction task—predicting when popularity undergoes these key events. It is of great importance to know when these three key events occur, because doing so helps recommendation systems, online marketing, and containment of rumors. However, it is very challenging to solve this new prediction task due to two issues. First, popularity evolution has high variation and can follow various patterns, so how can we identify “burst”, “peak”, and “fade” in different patterns of popularity evolution? Second, these events usually occur in a very short time, so how can we accurately yet promptly predict them? In this paper we address these two issues. To handle the first one, we use a simple moving average to smooth variation, and then a universal method is presented for different patterns to identify the key events in popularity evolution. To deal with the second one, we extract different types of features that may have an impact on the key events, and then a correlation analysis is conducted in the feature selection step to remove irrelevant and redundant features. The remaining features are used to train a machine learning model. The feature selection step improves prediction accuracy, and in order to emphasize prediction promptness, we design a new evaluation metric which considers both accuracy and promptness to evaluate our prediction task. Experimental and comparative results show the superiority of our prediction solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a method to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly used for online transactions worldwide. Little research has been conducted on predicting fluctuations in the price and number of transactions of a variety of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the few methods proposed to predict fluctuation in currency prices are inefficient because they fail to take into account the differences in attributes between real currencies and cryptocurrencies. This paper analyzes user comments in online cryptocurrency communities to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies and the number of transactions. By focusing on three cryptocurrencies, each with a large market size and user base, this paper attempts to predict such fluctuations by using a simple and efficient method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a human action recognition method using HOIRM (histogram of oriented interest region motion) feature fusion and a BOW (bag of words) model based on AP (affinity propagation) clustering. First, a HOIRM feature extraction method based on spatiotemporal interest points ROI is proposed. HOIRM can be regarded as a middle-level feature between local and global features. Then, HOIRM is fused with 3D HOG and 3D HOF local features using a cumulative histogram. The method further improves the robustness of local features to camera view angle and distance variations in complex scenes, which in turn improves the correct rate of action recognition. Finally, a BOW model based on AP clustering is proposed and applied to action classification. It obtains the appropriate visual dictionary capacity and achieves better clustering effect for the joint description of a variety of features. The experimental results demonstrate that by using the fused features with the proposed BOW model, the average recognition rate is 95.75% in the KTH database, and 88.25% in the UCF database, which are both higher than those by using only 3D HOG+3D HOF or HOIRM features. Moreover, the average recognition rate achieved by the proposed method in the two databases is higher than that obtained by other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, increasing associations between microRNAs (miRNAs) and human diseases have been identified. Based on accumulating biological data, many computational models for potential miRNA-disease associations inference have been developed, which saves time and expenditure on experimental studies, making great contributions to researching molecular mechanism of human diseases and developing new drugs for disease treatment. In this paper, we proposed a novel computational method named Ensemble of Decision Tree based MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (EDTMDA), which innovatively built a computational framework integrating ensemble learning and dimensionality reduction. For each miRNA-disease pair, the feature vector was extracted by calculating the statistical measures, graph theoretical measures, and matrix factorization results for the miRNA and disease, respectively. Then multiple base learnings were built to yield many decision trees (DTs) based on random selection of negative samples and miRNA/disease features. Particularly, Principal Components Analysis was applied to each base learning to reduce feature dimensionality and hence remove the noise or redundancy. Average strategy was adopted for these DTs to get final association scores between miRNAs and diseases. In model performance evaluation, EDTMDA showed AUC of 0.9309 in global leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) and AUC of 0.8524 in local LOOCV. Additionally, AUC of 0.9192+/-0.0009 in 5-fold cross validation proved the model’s reliability and stability. Furthermore, three types of case studies for four human diseases were implemented. As a result, 94% (Esophageal Neoplasms), 86% (Kidney Neoplasms), 96% (Breast Neoplasms) and 88% (Carcinoma Hepatocellular) of top 50 predicted miRNAs were confirmed by experimental evidences in literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

University dropout is a growing problem with considerable academic, social and economic consequences. Conclusions and limitations of previous studies highlight the difficulty of analyzing the phenomenon from a broad perspective and with bigger data sets. This paper proposes a new, machine-learning based method, able to examine the problem using a holistic approach. Advantages of this method include the lack of strong distribution hypothesis, the capacity for handling bigger data sets and the interpretability of the results. Results are consistent with previous research, showing the influence of personal and contextual variables and the importance of academic performance in the first year, but other factors are also highlighted with this model, such as the importance of dedication (part or full time), and the vulnerability of the students with respect to their age. Additionally, a comprehensive graphic output is included to make it easier to interpret the discovered rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer around the world, and it represents the main cause of death in the USA. Surgical treatment is the optimal therapeutic strategy for resectable non-small cell lung cancer. The principal factor for long-term survival after complete resection is the anatomic extension of the neoplasm. However, other factors also have adverse effects on operative mortality, and influence long-term outcome. In this paper we propose an algorithmic solution for the estimation of 5-years survival rate in lung cancer patients undertaking pulmonary resection. Materials and methods: We address the issue of survival analysis through decision-making techniques based on fuzzy and soft set theories. We develop an expert system based on clinical and functional data of lung cancer resections in patients with cancer that can be used to predict the survival of patients. Results: The evaluation of surgical risk in patients undertaking pulmonary resection is a primary target for thoracic surgeons. Lung cancer survival is influenced by many factors. The computational performance of our algorithm is critically analyzed by an experimental study. The correct survival classification is achieved with an accuracy of 79.0%. Our novel soft-set based criterion is an effective and precise diagnosis application for the determination of the survival rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the emergence of the Internet and its rapid growth, people can use mobile devices on many social media platforms (blogs, Facebook forums, etc.), and the platforms provide well-known websites for people to express and share their daily activities and ideas on global issues. Many consumers utilize product review websites before making a purchase. Many well-known websites are searched for relevant product reviews and experiences of product use. We can easily collect large amounts of structured and unstructured product data and further analyze the data to determine the desired product information. For this reason, many researchers are gradually focusing on sentiment analysis or opinion exploration (opinion mining) and use this technique to extract and analyze customer opinions and emotions. This paper proposes a sentimental text mining method based on an additional features method to enhance accuracy and reduce implementation time and uses singular value decomposition and principal component analysis for data dimension reduction. This study has four contributions: (1) the proposed algorithm for preprocessing the data for sentiment classification, (2) the additional features to enhance the accuracy of the sentiment classification, (3) the application of singular value decomposition and principal component analysis for data dimension reduction, and (4) the design of five modules based on different features, with or without stemming, to compare the performance results. The experimental results show that the proposed method has better accuracy than other methods and that the proposed method can decrease the implementation time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of data clustering algorithms is mainly dependent on their ability to balance between the exploration and exploitation of the search process. Although some data clustering algorithms have achieved reasonable quality solutions for some datasets, their performance across real-life datasets could be improved. This paper proposes an adaptive memetic differential evolution optimisation algorithm (AMADE) for addressing data clustering problems. The memetic algorithm (MA) employs an adaptive differential evolution (DE) mutation strategy, which can offer superior mutation performance across many combinatorial and continuous problem domains. By hybridising an adaptive DE mutation operator with the MA, we propose that it can lead to faster convergence and better balance the exploration and exploitation of the search. We would also expect that the performance of AMADE to be better than MA and DE if executed separately. Our experimental results, based on several real-life benchmark datasets, shows that AMADE outperformed other compared clustering algorithms when compared using statistical analysis. We conclude that the hybridisation of MA and the adaptive DE is a suitable approach for addressing data clustering problems and can improve the balance between global exploration and local exploitation of the optimisation algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

DIBR-3D technology has evolved over the past few years with the demands of consumers increasing in recent times for future free-view 3D videos on their home televisions. The main issue in 3D technology is the lack of 3D content available to watch using the traditional TV systems. Although, some sophisticated devices like stereoscopic cameras have been used to fill the gap between the 3D content demand and 3D content supply. But the content generated through these sophisticated devices can not be displayed on the traditional TV systems, so there needs to be some mechanism which is inline with the traditional TV. Furthermore, the huge collection of existing 2D content should be converted to 3D using depth image-based rendering techniques. This conversion technique can highly contribute in overcoming the shortage problem of the 3D content. This paper presents a novel approach for converting 2D degraded image for DIBR 3D-TV view. This degraded or noisy/blur image is enhanced through image dehazing and Directional Filter Bank (DFB). This enhancement is necessary because of the occlusion effect or hole filling problem that occurs due to imperfect depth map. The enhanced image is then segmented into the foreground image and the background image. After the segmentation, the depth map is generated using image profiles. Moreover, Stereoscopic images are finally produced using the DIBR procedure which is based on the 2D input image and the corresponding depth map. We have verified the results of the proposed approach by comparing the results with the existing state-of-the-art techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ex-ante online risk assessment for building emergency evacuation is essential to protect human life and property. Current risk assessment methods are limited by the tradeoff between accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we propose an online method that overcomes this tradeoff based on multimedia data (e.g. videos data from surveillance cameras) and deep learning. The method consists of two parts. The first estimates the evacuee position as input for training the assessment model to then perform risk assessment in real scenarios. The second considers a social force model based on the evacuation simulation for the output of training model. We verify the proposed method in simulation and real scenarios. Model sensitivity analyses and large-scale tests demonstrate the usability and superiority of the proposed method. By the method, the computation time of risk assessment could be decreased from 10 minutes (by traditional simulation method) to 2.18 s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Negative symptoms in schizophrenia are associated with significant burden and possess little to no robust treatments in clinical practice today. One key obstacle impeding the development of better treatment methods is the lack of an objective measure. Since negative symptoms almost always adversely affect speech production in patients, speech dysfunction have been considered as a viable objective measure. However, researchers have mostly focused on the verbal aspects of speech, with scant attention to the non-verbal cues in speech. In this paper, we have explored non-verbal speech cues as objective measures of negative symptoms of schizophrenia. We collected an interview corpus of 54 subjects with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls. In order to validate the non-verbal speech cues, we computed the correlation between these cues and the NSA-16 ratings assigned by expert clinicians. Significant correlations were obtained between these non-verbal speech cues and certain NSA indicators. For instance, the correlation between Turn Duration and Restricted Speech is -0.5, Response time and NSA Communication is 0.4, therefore indicating that poor communication is reflected in the objective measures, thus validating our claims. Moreover, certain NSA indices can be classified into observable and non-observable classes from the non-verbal speech cues by means of supervised classification methods. In particular the accuracy for Restricted speech quantity and Prolonged response time are 80% and 70% respectively. We were also able to classify healthy and patients using non-verbal speech features with 81.3% accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a scalable machine learning approach accompanied by open-source software for identifying violent and peaceful forms of political protest participation using social media data. While violent political protests are statistically rare events, they often shape public perceptions of political and social movements. This is, in part, due to the extensive and disproportionate media coverage which violent protest participation receives relative to peaceful protest participation. In the past, when a small number of media conglomerates served as the primary information source for learning about political and social movements, viewership and advertiser demands encouraged news organizations to focus on violent forms of political protest participation. Consequently, much of our knowledge about political protest participation is derived from data collected about violent protests, while less is known about peaceful forms of protest. Since the early 2000s, the digital revolution shifted attention away from traditional news sources toward social media as a primary source of information about current events. This, along with developments in machine learning which allow us to collect and analyze data relevant to political participation, present us with unique opportunities to expand our knowledge of peaceful and violent forms of political protest participation through social media data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperament and Psychological Types can be defined as innate psychological characteristics associated with how we relate with the world, and often influence our study and career choices. Furthermore, understanding these features help us manage conflicts, develop leadership, improve teaching and many other skills. Assigning temperament and psychological types is usually made by filling specific questionnaires. However, it is possible to identify temperamental characteristics from a linguistic and behavioral analysis of social media data from a user. Thus, machine-learning algorithms can be used to learn from a user’s social media data and infer his/her behavioral type. This paper initially provides a brief historical review of theories on temperament and then brings a survey of research aimed at predicting temperament and psychological types from social media data. It follows with the proposal of a framework to predict temperament and psychological types from a linguistic and behavioral analysis of Twitter data. The proposed framework infers temperament types following the David Keirsey’s model, and psychological types based on the MBTI model. Various data modelling and classifiers are used. The results showed that Random Forests with the LIWC technique can predict with 96.46% of accuracy the Artisan temperament, 92.19% the Guardian temperament, 78.68% the Idealist, and 83.82% the Rational temperament. The MBTI results also showed that Random Forests achieved a better performance with an accuracy of 82.05% for the E/I pair, 88.38% for the S/N pair, 80.57% for the T/F pair, and 78.26% for the J/P pair. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban change (urbanization) has dominated land change science for several decades. However, few studies have focused on what many scholars call the urban densification process (i.e., urban intensity expansion) despite its importance to both planning and subsequent impacts to the environment and local economies. This paper documents past urban densification patterns and uses this information to predict future densification trends in southeastern Wisconsin (SEWI) by using a rich dataset from the United States and by adapting the well-known Land Transformation Model (LTM) for this purpose. Urban densification is a significant and progressive process that often accompanies urbanization more generally. The increasing proportion of lower density areas, rather than higher density areas, was the main characteristic of the urban densification in SEWI from 2001 to 2011. We believe that improving urban land use efficiency to maintain rational densification are effective means toward a sustainable urban landscape. Multiple goodness-of-fit metrics demonstrated that the reconfigured LTM performed relatively well to simulate urban densification patterns in 2006 and 2011, enabling us to forecast densification to 2016 and 2021. The predicted future urban densification patterns are likely to be characterized by higher densities continue to increase at the expense of lower densities. We argue that detailed categories of urban density and specific relevant predictor variables are indispensable for densification prediction. Our study provides researchers working in land change science with important insights into urban densification process modeling. The outcome of this model can help planners to identify the current trajectory of urban development, enabling them to take informed action to promote planning objectives, which could benefit sustainable urbanization definitely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel adaptive online-feedback methodology for Brain Computer Interfaces (BCI). The method uses ElectroEncephaloGraphic (EEG) signals and combines motor with speech imagery to allow for tasks that involve multiple degrees of freedom (DoF). The main approach utilizes the covariance matrix descriptor as feature, and the Relevance Vector Machines (RVM) classifier. The novel contributions include, (1) a new method to select representative data to update the RVM model, and (2) an online classifier which is an adaptively-weighted mixture of RVM models to account for the users’ exploration and exploitation processes during the learning phase. Instead of evaluating the subjects’ performance solely based on the conventional metric of accuracy, we analyze their skill’s improvement based on 3 other criteria, namely the confusion matrix’s quality, the separability of the data, and their instability. After collecting calibration data for 8 minutes in the first run, 8 participants were able to control the system while receiving visual feedback in the subsequent runs. We observed significant improvement in all subjects, including two of them who fell into the BCI illiteracy category. Our proposed BCI system complements the existing approaches in several aspects. First, the co-adaptation paradigm not only adapts the classifiers, but also allows the users to actively discover their own way to use the BCI through their exploration and exploitation processes. Furthermore, the auto-calibrating system can be used immediately with a minimal calibration time. Finally, this is the first work to combine motor and speech imagery in an online feedback experiment to provide multiple DoF for BCI control applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is evident through biology research that, biological neural network could be implemented through two means: by congenital heredity, or by posteriority learning. However, traditionally, artificial neural network, especially the Deep learning Neural Networks (DNNs) are implemented only through exhaustive training and learning. Fixed structure is built, and then parameters are trained through huge amount of data. In this way, there are a lot of redundancies in the implemented artificial neural network. This redundancy not only requires more effort to train the network, but also costs more computing resources when used. In this paper, we proposed a bionic way to implement artificial neural network through construction rather than training and learning. The hierarchy of the neural network is designed according to analysis of the required functionality, and then module design is carried out to form each hierarchy. We choose the Drosophila’s visual neural network as a test case to verify our method’s validation. The results show that the bionic artificial neural network built through our method could work as a bionic compound eye, which can achieve the detection of the object and their movement, and the results are better on some properties, compared with the Drosophila’s biological compound eyes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In this paper we present a model of parameters to aesthetically characterize films using a multi-disciplinary approach: by combining film theory, visual low-level video descriptors (modeled in order to supply aesthetic information) and classification techniques using machine and deep learning. Methods: Four different tests have been developed, each for a different application, proving the model's usefulness. These applications are: aesthetic style clustering, prediction of production year, genre detection and influence on film popularity. Results: The results are compared against high-level information to determine the accuracy of the model to classify films without knowing such information previously. The main difference with other film characterization approaches is that we are able to isolate the influence of high-level descriptors to really understand the relevance of low-level features and, accordingly propose a useful set of low-level visual descriptors for that purpose. This model has been tested with a representative number of films to prove that it can be used for different applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health care organizations are leveraging machine-learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), to improve delivery of care at a reduced cost. Applications of ANN to diagnosis are well-known; however, ANN are increasingly used to inform health care management decisions. We provide a seminal review of the applications of ANN to health care organizational decision-making. We screened 3,397 articles from six databases with coverage of Health Administration, Computer Science and Business Administration. We extracted study characteristics, aim, methodology and context (including level of analysis) from 80 articles meeting inclusion criteria. Articles were published from 1997–2018 and originated from 24 countries, with a plurality of papers (26 articles) published by authors from the United States. Types of ANN used included ANN (36 articles), feed-forward networks (25 articles), or hybrid models (23 articles); reported accuracy varied from 50% to 100%. The majority of ANN informed decision-making at the micro level (61 articles), between patients and health care providers. Fewer ANN were deployed for intra-organizational (meso- level, 29 articles) and system, policy or inter-organizational (macro- level, 10 articles) decision-making. Our review identifies key characteristics and drivers for market uptake of ANN for health care organizational decision-making to guide further adoption of this technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, the stock prices of the same industry have a similar trend, but those of different industries do not. When investing in stocks of different industries, one should select the optimal model from lots of trading models for each industry because any model may not be suitable for capturing the stock trends of all industries. However, the study has not been carried out at present. In this paper, firstly we select 424 S&P 500 index component stocks (SPICS) and 185 CSI 300 index component stocks (CSICS) as the research objects from 2010 to 2017, divide them into 9 industries such as finance and energy respectively. Secondly, we apply 12 widely used machine learning algorithms to generate stock trading signals in different industries and execute the back-testing based on the trading signals. Thirdly, we use a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate whether there are significant differences among the trading performance evaluation indicators (PEI) of different models in the same industry. Finally, we propose a series of rules to select the optimal models for stock investment of every industry. The analytical results on SPICS and CSICS show that we can find the optimal trading models for each industry based on the statistical tests and the rules. Most importantly, the PEI of the best algorithms can be significantly better than that of the benchmark index and “Buy and Hold” strategy. Therefore, the algorithms can be used for making profits from industry stock trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a critical need for fast, inexpensive, objective, and accurate screening tools for childhood psychopathology. Perhaps most compelling is in the case of internalizing disorders, like anxiety and depression, where unobservable symptoms cause children to go unassessed–suffering in silence because they never exhibiting the disruptive behaviors that would lead to a referral for diagnostic assessment. If left untreated these disorders are associated with long-term negative outcomes including substance abuse and increased risk for suicide. This paper presents a new approach for identifying children with internalizing disorders using an instrumented 90-second mood induction task. Participant motion during the task is monitored using a commercially available wearable sensor. We show that machine learning can be used to differentiate children with an internalizing diagnosis from controls with 81% accuracy (67% sensitivity, 88% specificity). We provide a detailed description of the modeling methodology used to arrive at these results and explore further the predictive ability of each temporal phase of the mood induction task. Kinematical measures most discriminative of internalizing diagnosis are analyzed in detail, showing affected children exhibit significantly more avoidance of ambiguous threat. Performance of the proposed approach is compared to clinical thresholds on parent-reported child symptoms which differentiate children with an internalizing diagnosis from controls with slightly lower accuracy (.68-.75 vs. .81), slightly higher specificity (.88–1.00 vs. .88), and lower sensitivity (.00-.42 vs. .67) than the proposed, instrumented method. These results point toward the future use of this approach for screening children for internalizing disorders so that interventions can be deployed when they have the highest chance for long-term success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attention maps have been fused in the VggNet structure (EAC-Net) [] and have shown significant improvement compared to that of the VggNet structure. However, in [], E-Net was designed based on the facial action unit (AU) center and for facial AU detection only. Thus, for the use of attention maps in every image type, this paper proposed a new convolutional neural network (CNN) structure, P_VggNet, comprising the following parts: P_Net and VggNet with 16 layers (VggNet-16). The generation approach of P_Net was designed, and the P_VggNet structure was proposed. To prove the efficiency of P_VggNet, we designed two experiments, which indicated that P_VggNet could more efficiently extract image features than VggNet-16. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Archaeologists often need to date and group artifact types to discern typologies, chronologies, and classifications. For over a century, statisticians have been using classification and clustering techniques to infer patterns in data that can be defined by algorithms. In the case of archaeology, linear regression algorithms are often used to chronologically date features and sites, and pattern recognition is used to develop typologies and classifications. However, archaeological data is often expensive to collect, and analyses are often limited by poor sample sizes and datasets. Here we show that recent advances in computation allow archaeologists to use machine learning based on much of the same statistical theory to address more complex problems using increased computing power and larger and incomplete datasets. This paper approaches the problem of predicting the chronology of archaeological sites through a case study of medieval temples in Angkor, Cambodia. For this study, we have a large dataset of temples with known architectural elements and artifacts; however, less than ten percent of the sample of temples have known dates, and much of the attribute data is incomplete. Our results suggest that the algorithms can predict dates for temples from 821–1150 CE with a 49-66-year average absolute error. We find that this method surpasses traditional supervised and unsupervised statistical approaches for under-specified portions of the dataset and is a promising new method for anthropological inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accuracy and diversity of recommendation algorithms have always been the research hotspot of recommender systems. A good recommender system should not only have high accuracy and diversity, but also have adequate robustness against spammer attacks. However, the issue of recommendation robustness has received relatively little attention in the literature. In this paper, we systematically study the influences of different spammer behaviors on the recommendation results in various recommendation algorithms. We further propose an improved algorithm by incorporating the inner-similarity of user’s purchased items in the classic KNN approach. The new algorithm effectively enhances the robustness against spammer attacks and thus outperforms traditional algorithms in recommendation accuracy and diversity when spammers exist in the online commercial systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While social media offer great communication opportunities, they also increase the vulnerability of young people to threatening situations online. Recent studies report that cyberbullying constitutes a growing problem among youngsters. Successful prevention depends on the adequate detection of potentially harmful messages and the information overload on the Web requires intelligent systems to identify potential risks automatically. The focus of this paper is on automatic cyberbullying detection in social media text by modelling posts written by bullies, victims, and bystanders of online bullying. We describe the collection and fine-grained annotation of a cyberbullying corpus for English and Dutch and perform a series of binary classification experiments to determine the feasibility of automatic cyberbullying detection. We make use of linear support vector machines exploiting a rich feature set and investigate which information sources contribute the most for the task. Experiments on a hold-out test set reveal promising results for the detection of cyberbullying-related posts. After optimisation of the hyperparameters, the classifier yields an F1 score of 64% and 61% for English and Dutch respectively, and considerably outperforms baseline systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]