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In this paper, we propose a parameter identification methodology of the SIRD model, an extension of the classical SIR model, that considers the deceased as a separate category. In addition, our model includes one parameter which is the ratio between the real total number of infected and the number of infected that were documented in the official statistics. Due to many factors, like governmental decisions, several variants circulating, opening and closing of schools, the typical assumption that the parameters of the model stay constant for long periods of time is not realistic. Thus our objective is to create a method which works for short periods of time. In this scope, we approach the estimation relying on the previous 7 days of data and then use the identified parameters to make predictions. To perform the estimation of the parameters we propose the average of an ensemble of neural networks. Each neural network is constructed based on a database built by solving the SIRD for 7 days, with random parameters. In this way, the networks learn the parameters from the solution of the SIRD model. Lastly we use the ensemble to get estimates of the parameters from the real data of Covid19 in Romania and then we illustrate the predictions for different periods of time, from 10 up to 45 days, for the number of deaths. The main goal was to apply this approach on the analysis of COVID-19 evolution in Romania, but this was also exemplified on other countries like Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland with similar results. The results are backed by a theorem which guarantees that we can recover the parameters of the model from the reported data. We believe this methodology can be used as a general tool for dealing with short term predictions of infectious diseases or in other compartmental models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The date assumed as the beginning of the pandemic in Poland is 4 March 2020, the date of the first confirmed case of the virus. This article presents the actions undertaken by the management of underground hard coal mining plants concerning the risk of epidemic related to SARS-CoV-2. This work shows a set of implemented recommendations, guidelines and decisions, which were established after the appearance of the first wave of cases in Poland. What is more, it discusses measures aiming at reducing the risk of spreading the coronavirus among the mineworkers. The suggestions for different variants of the decision-making process concerning the pandemic and which have an enormous impact on the operating expenses of the company are also made. The paper presents the results of the study on actions taken in individual mining companies and good work practices recommended to be applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling the number of individuals in different states is a principal tool in the event of an epidemic. The natural transition of individuals between possible states often includes deliberate interference such as isolation or vaccination. Thus, the mathematical model may need to be re-calibrated due to various factors. The model considered in this paper is the SIRD epidemic model. An additional parameter is the moment of changing the description of the phenomenon when the parameters of the model change and the change is not pre-specified. Detecting and estimating the moment of change in real time is the subject of statistical research. A sequential (online) approach was applied using the Bayesian shift point detection algorithm and trimmed exact linear time. We show how methods of analysis behave in different instances. These methods are verified on simulated data and applied to pandemic data of a selected European country. The simulation is performed with a social network graph to obtain a practical representation ability. The epidemiological data used come from the territory of Poland and concern the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland. The results show satisfactory detection of the moments where the applied model needs to be verified and re-calibrated. These show the effectiveness of the proposed combination of methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 epidemic appeared in Poland in early March 2020. Since then, the epidemic has impacted strongly on the socioeconomic nature of the country. Since April 2020, the region with the most confirmed cases is the province of Silesia (Śląskie). This paper has two main aims. First, the authors focus on explanations for the causes of the large number of confirmed cases in this region. The second issue is the mosaic pattern of COVID-19 cases in Śląskie province. The paper explains these patterns with reference to urban shrinkage, trans-industrialism, hard coal mining and polycentricity. The impact of these drivers is clearly visible in the local patterning of the pandemic. The authors point out that this specific relationship in this province complicates regional and local policy and indirectly affects state policy focused on the epidemic as well. The key problem is the negative impact of COVID-19 on hard coal mining. This sector, in turn, is considered by the Polish government as one of the most important from an economic and political point of view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. The paper aims to clarify the impact of these measures in evolution of epidemic. The proposed deterministic model defines a simple rule on the reproduction number R in terms of ratio of diagnosed cases and, quarantine and transmission parameters. The model is applied to the early stage of Covid19 crisis in Poland. We investigate 3 scenarios corresponding to different ratios of diagnosed cases. Our results show that, depending on the scenario, contact tracing prevented from 50% to over 90% of cases. The effects of quarantine are limited by fraction of undiagnosed cases. The key conclusion is that under realistic assumptions the epidemic can not be controlled without any social distancing measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to identify good practices in epidemic risk management. Thus, by knowing and applying these good practices, results can be obtained to mitigate the negative consequences produced by extremely risky events such as epidemics. In order to achieve the proposed goal, the following were specified as objectives of the article: identification of measures adopted in the four countries analyzed, namely Spain, Italy, Romania and Poland, to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and of solutions taken to reduce economic losses which arose as consequences of the imposition of these measures in the field of tourism. This paper combines elements of qualitative research, namely the use of methods such as data processing and analysis, comparative analysis, documentation of reports, and the presentation of conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks into the impact of the recent COVID-19 epidemic on the daily mobility of people. Existing research into the epidemic travel patterns points at transport as a channel for disease spreading with especially long-distance travel in the centre of interest. We adopt a different approach looking into the effects that epidemic has on the transport system and specifically in relation to short-distance daily mobility activities. We go beyond simple travel avoidance behaviours and look into factors influencing change in travel times and in modal split under epidemic. This leads to the research problems we posit in this paper. We look into the overall reduction of daily travel and into the factors impacting peoples' decisions to refrain from daily traveling. This paper focuses on modes affected and explores differences between various societal groups. We use a CATI survey with a representative sample size of 1069 respondents from Poland. The survey was carried out between March, 24th and April, 6th2020, with a start date one week after the Polish government introduced administrative measures aimed at slowing down the COVID-19 epidemic. For data analysis, we propose using the GLM (general linear model), allowing us to include all the qualitative and quantitative variables which depict our sample. We observe significant drops in travel times under epidemic conditions. Those drops are similar regardless of the age group and gender. The time decrease depended on the purpose of travels, means of transport, traveller's household size, fear of coronavirus, main occupation, and change in it caused by the epidemic. The more the respondent was afraid of coronavirus, the more she or he shortened the travel time. • CATI survey reveals significant drops in daily travel times during epidemic. • The research confirms the effectiveness of mobility restrictions. • Travel time drops are similar regardless of the age group and gender. • Main occupation is the key factor affecting travel time change. • The more one was afraid of coronavirus, the bigger the travel time reduction was. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The obesity epidemic is one of the most serious public health problems in many countries. The increase in overweight and obesity has been observed for many years, and the prognosis for the future is unfavorable. In Poland, more than half of the adults have excessive body weight, while approx. 20% are obese. Overweight and obesity are increasingly occurring especially in men. The continuously growing percentage of obese children indicates that this problem might be even more serious in the future. Obesity can lead to many serious health consequences, the most serious including cardiovascular disease, diabetes type 2, and some cancers. Maintaining this trend of overweight and obesity can lead to shorter average life expectancy. The treatment of obesity and its complications and the costs of obesity-related disability and premature mortality are a significant strain on the national budget. Due to the spread of the obesity epidemic, the WHO and the European Commission have developed many initiatives aimed to counteract obesity and reverse its growing prevalence. These initiatives are presented, among others, in the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity, and Health, the European Charter on Counteracting Obesity, and the White Paper "A strategy for Europe on nutrition, overweight-, and obesity related health issues:' In Poland, activities mainly connected with the realization of the National Program for the Prevention of Overweight, Obesity, and Non-Communicable Diseases through Diet and Improved Physical Activity POL-HEALTH are the chance for successful counteracting obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]