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Background: Up to 1.45 billion people currently suffer from soil transmitted helminth infection, with the largest burden occurring in Africa and Asia. Safe and cost effective deworming treatment exists, but there is a debate about mass distribution of this treatment in high prevalence settings. While the World Health Organization recommends mass administration of anthelmintic drugs for preschool and school-aged children in high (>20%) prevalence settings, and several long run follow up studies of an influential trial have suggested large benefits that persist over time, recent systematic reviews have called this recommendation into question. Methods and findings: This paper analyzes the long-term impact of a cluster-randomized trial in eastern Uganda that provided mass deworming treatment to preschool aged children from 2000 to 2003 on the numeracy and literacy skills of children and young adults living in those villages in 2010-2015. This study uses numeracy and literacy data collected seven to twelve years after the end of the deworming trial in a randomly selected subset of communities from the original trial, by an education-focused survey that had no relationship to the deworming study. Building on an earlier working paper which used data from 2010 and 2011 survey rounds, this paper uses an additional four years of numeracy and literacy data (2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015). Aggregating data from all survey rounds, the difference between numeracy scores in treatment versus control communities is 0.07 standard deviations (SD) (95% CI -0.10, 0.24, p = 0.40), the difference in literacy scores is 0.05 SD (95% CI -0.16, 0.27, p = 0.62), and the difference in total scores is 0.07 SD (95% CI -0.11, 0.25, p = 0.44). There are significant differences in program impact by gender, with numeracy and literacy differentially positively affected for girls, and by age, with treatment effects larger for the primary school aged subsample. There are also significant treatment interactions for those living in households with more treatment-eligible children. There is no evidence of differential treatment effects on age at program eligibility or number of years of program eligibility. Conclusions: Mass deworming of preschool aged children in high prevalence communities in Uganda resulted in no statistically significant gains in numeracy or literacy 7-12 years after program completion. Point estimates were positive but imprecise; the study lacked sufficient power to rule out substantial positive effects or more modest negative effects. However, there is suggestive evidence that deworming was relatively more beneficial for girls, primary school aged children, and children living in households with other treated children. Research approval: As this analysis was conducted on secondary data which is publicly available, no research approval was sought or received. All individual records were anonymized by the data provider prior to public release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial sanctions are often thought of as the “soft alternative” to armed conflict and are widely used in the 21st century. Nonetheless, sanctions are often criticized for being non-specific in their action, and having impact beyond their intended remit. One often-overlooked area affected by sanctions are academic systems of research and education. Sanctions place “invisible barriers” for research in these countries by limiting access to necessary resources and curtailing their effective use. In this paper we present a national survey of Sudanese academics focused on the impact of 20 years of economic sanctions on their work. It identifies key areas of academic research and education that have been impacted by international sanctions. Moreover, these data highlight how the impact of sanctions on academia is likely to persist long after they are formally lifted. The paper concludes by problematising the current interpretation of jus post bellum, or moral behaviour after conflict. It suggests that the responsibility to make reparations in the form of support for academic systems applies to countries who impose economic sanctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Geospatial data are important in monitoring many aspects of healthcare development. Geographically linking health facility data with population data is an important area of public health research. Examining healthcare problems spatially and hierarchically assists with efficient resource allocation and the monitoring and evaluation of service efficacy at different levels. This paper explored methodological issues associated with geographic data linkage, and the spatial and multilevel analyses that could be considered in analysing maternal health service data. Methods: The 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey and the 2014 Ethiopia Service Provision Assessment data were used. Two geographic data linking methods were used to link these two datasets. Administrative boundary link was used to link a sample of health facilities data with population survey data for analysing three areas of maternal health service use. Euclidean buffer link was used for a census of hospitals to analyse caesarean delivery use in Ethiopia. The Global Moran’s I and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics need to be carried out for identifying hot spots of maternal health service use in ArcGIS software. In addition to this, since the two datasets contain hierarchical data, a multilevel analysis was carried out to identify key determinants of maternal health service use in Ethiopia. Results: Administrative boundary link gave more types of health facilities and more maternal health services as compared to the Euclidean buffer link. Administrative boundary link is the method of choice in case of sampled health facilities. However, for a census of health facilities, the Euclidean buffer link is the appropriate choice as this provides cluster level service environment estimates, which the administrative boundary link does not. Applying a False Discovery Rate correction enables the identification of true spatial clusters of maternal health service use. Conclusions: A service environment link minimizes the methodological issues associated with geographic data linkage. A False Discovery Rate correction needs to be used to account for multiple and dependent testing while carrying out local spatial statistics. Examining maternal health service use both spatially and hierarchically has tremendous importance for identifying geographic areas that need special emphasis and for intervention purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While school-aged children in low- and middle-income countries remain highly exposed to acute infections, programs targeting this age group remain limited in scale and scope. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of a new and comprehensive primary school-based health intervention program on student-reported morbidity and anthropometric outcomes in Lusaka, Zambia. Methods: A prospective matched control study identified 12 classes in 7 schools for the intervention and 12 classes in 7 matched schools as controls. Teachers in intervention schools were trained to deliver health lessons and to refer sick students to care. In addition, vitamin A and deworming medication were biannually administered to intervention students. The primary study outcome was student-reported morbidity. Secondary outcomes were weight, height, health knowledge, and absenteeism. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were used to estimate program impact. Results: 380 students ages 4–16 were enrolled in the study in 2015, and 97% were followed up at endline in 2016. The intervention decreased the adjusted odds of self-reported acute illnesses by 38% (95% CI: 0.48, 0.77) and the adjusted odds of stunting by 52% (95% CI: 0.26, 0.87). It also increased health knowledge by 0.53 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.24, 0.81). No impact was found on weight (adjusted mean difference β = 0.17, 95% CI: - 1.11, 1.44) and student absenteeism (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.60, 1.33). Conclusion: The results presented in this paper suggest that comprehensive school-based health programs may offer a highly effective way to improve students’ health knowledge as well as their health status. Given their low cost, a more general adoption and implementation of such programs seems recommendable. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was the largest in history. Starting in September 2014, International Medical Corps (IMC) operated five Ebola treatment units (ETUs) in Sierra Leone and Liberia. This paper explores how future infectious disease outbreak facilities in resource-limited settings can be planned, organized, and managed by analyzing data collected on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and infection prevention control (IPC) protocols. Design/Methodology/Approach: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by analyzing WASH/IPC activity data routinely recorded on paper forms or white boards at ETUs during the outbreak and later merged into a database from two IMC-run ETUs in Sierra Leone between December 2014 and December 2015. Findings: The IMC WASH/IPC database contains data from over 369 days. Our results highlight parameters key to designing and maintaining an ETU. High concentration chlorine solution usage was highly correlated with both daily patient occupancy and high-risk zone staff entries; low concentration chlorine usage was less well explained by these measures. There is high demand for laundering and disinfecting of personal protective equipment (PPE) on a daily basis and approximately 1 (0–4) piece of PPE is damaged each day. Research limitations/Implications: Lack of standardization in the type and format of data collected at ETUs made constructing the WASH/IPC database difficult. However, the data presented here may help inform humanitarian response operations in future epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of the human species out of Africa in the Pleistocene, and the subsequent development of agriculture in the Holocene, resulted in waves of linguistic diversification and replacement across the planet. Analogous to the growth of populations or the speciation of biological organisms, languages diversify over time to form phylogenies of language families. However, the dynamics of this diversification process are unclear. Bayesian methods applied to lexical and phonetic data have created dated linguistic phylogenies for 18 language families encompassing ~3,000 of the world’s ~7,000 extant languages. In this paper we use these phylogenies to quantify how fast languages expand and diversify through time both within and across language families. The overall diversification rate of languages in our sample is ~0.001 yr-1 (or a doubling time of ~700 yr) over the last 6,000 years with evidence for nonlinear dynamics in language diversification rates over time, where both within and across language families, diversity initially increases rapidly and then slows. The expansion, evolution, and diversification of languages as they spread around the planet was a non-constant process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Ghana Health Service in collaboration with partner institutions implemented a five-year primary health systems strengthening program known as the Ghana Essential Health Intervention Program (GEHIP). GEHIP was a plausibility trial implemented in an impoverished region of northern Ghana around the World Health Organizations (WHO) six pillars combined with community engagement, leadership development and grassroots political support, the program organized a program of training and action focused on strategies for saving newborn lives and community-engaged emergency referral services. This paper analyzes the effect of the GEHIP program on child survival. Methods: Birth history data assembled from baseline and endline surveys are used to assess the hazard of child mortality in GEHIP treatment and comparison areas prior to and after the start of treatment. Difference-in-differences (DiD) methods are used to compare mortality change over time among children exposed to GEHIP relative to children in the comparison area over the same time period. Models test the hypothesis that a package of systems strengthening activities improved childhood survival. Models adjusted for the potentially confounding effects of baseline differentials, secular mortality trends, household characteristics such as relative wealth and parental educational attainment, and geographic accessibility of clinical care. Results: The GEHIP combination of health systems strengthening activities reduced neonatal mortality by approximately one half (HR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.28,0.98, p = 0.045). There was a null incremental effect of GEHIP on mortality of post-neonate infants (from 1 to 12 months old) (HR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.30,1.79; p = 0.480) and post-infants (from 1 year to 5 years old) -(HR = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.55–1.90; p = 0.940). Age-specific analyses show that impact was concentrated among neonates. However, effect ratios for post-infancy were inefficiently assessed owing to extensive survival history censoring for the later months of childhood. Children were observed only rarely for periods over 40 months of age. Conclusion: GEHIP results show that a comprehensive approach to newborn care is feasible, if care is augmented by community-based nurses. It supports the assertion that if appropriate mechanisms are put in place to enable the various pillars of the health system as espoused by WHO in rural impoverished settings where childhood mortality is high, it could lead to accelerated reductions in mortality thereby increasing survival of children. Policy implications of the pronounced neonatal effect of GEHIP merit national review for possible scale-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ghana has made significant stride towards universal health coverage (UHC) by implementing the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2003. This paper investigates the progress of UHC indicators in Ghana from 1995 to 2015 and makes future predictions up to 2030 to assess the probability of achieving UHC targets. National representative surveys of Ghana were used to assess health service coverage and financial risk protection. The analyses estimated the coverage of 13 prevention and four treatment service indicators at the national level and across wealth quintiles. In addition, we calculated catastrophic health payments and impoverishment to assess financial hardship and used a Bayesian regression model to estimate trends and future projections as well as the probabilities of achieving UHC targets by 2030. Wealth-based inequalities and regional disparities were also assessed. At the national level, 14 out of the 17 health service indicators are projected to reach the target of 80% coverage by 2030. Across wealth quintiles, inequalities were observed amongst most indicators with richer groups obtaining more coverage than their poorer counterparts. Subnational analysis revealed while all regions will achieve the 80% coverage target with high probabilities for the prevention services, the same cannot be applied to the treatment services. In 2015, the proportion of households that suffered catastrophic health payments and impoverishment at a threshold of 25% non-food expenditure were 1.9% (95%CrI: 0.9–3.5) and 0.4% (95%CrI: 0.2–0.8), respectively. These are projected to reduce to 0.4% (95% CrI: 0.1–1.3) and 0.2% (0.0–0.5) respectively by 2030. Inequality measures and subnational assessment revealed that catastrophic expenditure experienced by wealth quintiles and regions are not equal. Significant improvements were seen in both health service coverage and financial risk protection over the years. However, inequalities across wealth quintiles and regions continue to be cause of concerns. Further efforts are needed to narrow these gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A community’s cultural beliefs, attitudes and discourse can affect their responses in surveys. Knowledge of these cultural factors and how to comply with them or adjust for them during data collection can improve data quality. Objective: This study describes implications of features of Gambian culture related to women’s reproductive health, and mortality, when collecting data in surveys. Methods: 13 in-depth interviews of female interviewers and a focus group discussion among male interviewers were conducted in two rural health and demographic surveillance systems as well as three key informant interviews in three regions in The Gambia. Results: From the fieldworker’s viewpoint, questions relating to reproduction were best asked by women as culturally pregnancies should be concealed, and menstruation is considered a sensitive topic. Gambians were reluctant to speak about decedents and the Fula did not like to be counted, potentially affecting estimation of mortality. Asking about siblings proved problematic among the Fula and Serahule communities. Proposals made to overcome these challenges were that culturally-appropriate metaphors and symbols should be used to discuss sensitive matters and to enumerating births/deaths singly instead of collecting summary totals, which had threatening connotations. This was as opposed to training interviewers to ask standardised and precise verbatim questions. Contribution: This paper presents indigenous Gambian solutions by fieldworkers to culturally sensitive topics when collecting pregnancy outcomes and mortality data in demographic and health surveys. For researchers collecting maternal mortality data, it highlights the potential shortcomings of the sibling history methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To diagnose ≥90% HIV-infected residents (diagnostic coverage), the Bukoba Combination Prevention Evaluation (BCPE) implemented provider-initiated (PITC), home- (HBHTC), and venue-based (VBHTC) HIV testing and counseling (HTC) intervention in Bukoba Municipal Council, a mixed urban and rural lake zone community of 150,000 residents in Tanzania. This paper describes the methods, outcomes, and incremental costs of these HTC interventions. PITC was implemented in outpatient department clinics in all eight public and three faith-based health facilities. In clinics, lay counselors routinely screened and referred eligible patients for HIV testing conducted by HTC-dedicated healthcare workers. In all 14 wards, community teams offered HTC to eligible persons encountered at 31,293 home visits and at 79 male- and youth-frequented venues. HTC was recommended for persons who were not in HIV care or had not tested in the prior 90 days. BCPE conducted 133,695 HIV tests during the 2.5 year intervention (PITC: 88,813, 66%; HBHTC: 27,407, 21%; VBHTC: 17,475, 13%). Compared with other strategies, PITC conducted proportionally more tests among females (65%), and VBHTC conducted proportionally more tests among males (69%) and young-adults aged 15–24 years (42%). Of 5,550 (4.2% of all tests) HIV-positive tests, 4,143 (75%) clients were newly HIV diagnosed, including 1,583 males and 881 young adults aged 15–24 years. Of HIV tests conducted 3.7%, 1.8%, and 2.1% of PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC clients, respectively, were newly HIV diagnosed; PITC accounted for 79% of all new diagnoses. Cost per test (per new diagnosis) was $4.55 ($123.66), $6.45 ($354.44), and $7.98 ($372.67) for PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC, respectively. In a task-shifting analysis in which lay counselors replaced healthcare workers, estimated costs per test (per new diagnosis) would have been $3.06 ($83.15), $ 4.81 ($264.04), and $5.45 ($254.52), for PITC, HBHTC, and VBHTC, respectively. BCPE models reached different target groups, including men and young adults, two groups with consistently low coverage. Implementation of multiple models is likely necessary to achieve ≥90% diagnostic coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: HIV self-testing (HIVST) offers a useful addition to HIV testing services and enables individuals to test privately. Despite recommendations to the contrary, repeat HIV testing is frequent among people already on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) and there are concerns that oral self-testing might lead to false negative results. A study was conducted in Khayelitsha, South Africa, to assess feasibility and uptake of HIVST and linkage-to-care following HIVST. Methods: Participants were recruited at two health facilities from 1 March 2016 to 31 March 2017. People under 18 years, or with self-reported previously-diagnosed HIV infection, were excluded. Participants received an OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody kit, and reported their HIVST results by pre-paid text message (SMS) or by returning to the facility. Those not reporting within 7 days were contacted by phone. Electronic and paper-based clinical and laboratory records were retrospectively examined for all participants to identify known HIV outcomes, after matching for name, date of birth, and sex. These findings were compared with self-reported HIVST results where available. Results: Of 639 participants, 401 (62.8%) self-reported a negative HIVST result, 27 (4.2%) a positive result, and 211 (33.0%) did not report. The record search identified that of the 401 participants self-reporting a negative HIVST result, 19 (4.7%) were already known to be HIV positive; of the 27 self-reporting positive, 12 (44%) were known HIV positive. Overall, records showed 57/639 (8.9%) were HIV positive of whom 39/57 (68.4%) had previously-diagnosed infection and 18/57 (31.6%) newly-diagnosed infection. Of the 428 participants who self-reported a result, 366 (85.5%) reported by SMS. Conclusions: HIVST can improve HIV testing uptake and linkage to care. SMS is acceptable for reporting HIVST results but negative self-reports by participants may be unreliable. Use of HIVST by individuals on ART is frequent despite recommendations to the contrary and its implications need further consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Cyphostemma (Planch.) Alston (Vitaceae) includes about 150 species distributed in eastern and southern Africa and Madagascar. Some species are used in traditional medicine and their biological activities, including antiproliferative effects against cancer cell lines, have been demonstrated. To date no investigations on Cyphostemma essential oils have been carried out. Essential oils, which play important roles in plant defenses have been demonstrated to be active in the treatment of several human diseases and to enhance bioavability of other drugs. The aim of this paper was to identify the chemical composition of the essential oil of the leaves of Cyphostemma juttae (Dinter & Gilg) Desc. and to verify some biological activities on two triple negative breast cancer cell lines (MDA-MB-231, SUM 149), characterized by the over-expression of the transcription factor NF-κB. In the essential oil, obtained by hydrodistillation and analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, 39 compounds were detected and with phytol (30%) dominating the chemical composition. C. juttae essential oil reduced cell growth and showed a pro-oxidant activity in both cell lines. Moreover, C. juttae essential oil caused a substantial decrease of NF-κB activation and consequently a significant reduction of some NF-κB target genes. The present study shows for the first time the cytotoxic properties of C. juttae essential oil and highlight its availability to interfere with NF-κB pathway, suggesting a potential therapeutic use in triple negative breast cancers (TNBCs) of this essential oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Global Strategy to Eliminate Lymphatic Filiariasis (GFELF) through Mass Drug Administration (MDA) has been implemented in Ghana since the year 2000 and transmission has been interrupted in 76 of 98 endemic districts. To improve the MDA in the remaining districts with microfilaria (MF) prevalence above the 1% threshold for the interruption of transmission, there is a need to identify and implement appropriate quality improvement (QI) strategies. This paper describes the use of intervention mapping to select QI strategies to improve an existing evidence-based MDA program in Northern Ghana. Methods: Due to the complexities associated with implementing evidence-based programs (EBP) such as the lymphatic filariasis MDA and variability in the context, an initial assessment to identify implementation bottlenecks associated with the quality of implementation of lymphatic filariasis MDA in the Bole District of Ghana was conducted using a mixed methods approach. Based on the findings of the initial assessment, a context specific QI strategy was designed and operationalized using intervention mapping strategy in terms of seven domains: actor, the action, action targets, temporality, dose, implementation outcomes addressed, and theoretical justification. Results: The initial needs assessment shows that the persistent transmission of lymphatic filariasis in the Bole District is characterized by high levels of refusal to ingest the drug, high levels of reported adverse drug reactions, low MDA coverage at community level, poor adherence to the MDA protocol and non-participants’ responsiveness. Conclusion: This study has shown that it is feasible to develop a context specific QI strategy for an existing evidence-based intervention based on an initial needs assessment through stakeholder participation using the IM approach. However, working (towards) QI requires more time than is usually available in public health service. Sufficient theoretical knowledge of implementation research and experience with technical IM experts must be available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The overall goal of the Saleema Initiative in Sudan is to promote long-term abandonment of female genital mutilation and cutting (FGM) through a contribution to changing social norms, attitudes, and intentions related to the practice. The initiative aims to create positive cultural associations with a girl remaining uncut, a new social norm. Saleema hypothesizes that branding the alternative to FGM (abandonment) will promote social norms change. In 2014, the lead author designed a monitoring and evaluation framework for Saleema in partnership with UNICEF, the National Council for Child Welfare (NCCW), and local organizations. Methods: The Saleema evaluation aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign in reducing pro-FGM social norms. A quasi-experimental design controlled for dosage of campaign messages delivered across the 18 states in Sudan to measure a dose-response effect. We operationalized social norms through a 4-item scale validated in previous research. Results: This paper reports on quantitative evaluation findings based on data gathered in from 2015–2017 and focuses on the dose-response relationship between Saleema exposure and changes in FGM social norms. We found that self-reported exposure was associated with reduced pro-FGM social norms (coeff. = -0.329, p < .001). Additionally, higher doses of Saleema, measured through an exogenous measure of campaign event exposure from an independent monitoring system was associated with reduced pro-FGM social norms (coeff. = -0.146, p < .001). Conclusions: Saleema was effective in reducing pro-FGM social norms. It is a promising strategy and findings contribute to the growing literature on social norms approaches to behavior change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive cervical cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) emitted recommendations to start Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) regardless of CD4 count. Although HAART has been shown to reduce the prevalence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) genotypes, it is unclear whether it confers a protective effect specifically for HPV 16. This review summarizes the existing evidence regarding the effect of HAART on HPV 16 infection, as this genotype may not be influenced by immunity level and explores its implications for Sub Saharan Africa. A comprehensive literature review was undertaken and quality assessment was carried out on the selected papers. Four cohort studies and three cross-sectional studies were identified for which the overall quality score assessment ranged from weak/moderate (Score of 1.8) to strong (Score of 3). The evidence yielded by our review was conflicting. Thus, the high heterogeneity between study populations and results did not allow us to draw any firm conclusions as to whether HAART has an impact on HPV 16 acquisition/prevalence. As only three studies were conducted in Africa, there are insufficient grounds for solid comparison between geographic regions. In light of inadequate data, HPV unvaccinated women on HAART should still receive more frequent follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Gastric cancer survival rates in Africa are low as many cases are diagnosed late. Currently, there are no inexpensive, non-invasive and simple techniques that can be employed in poor resource settings for early case detection. In this study, we explored the possibility using blood in gastric juice as a screening tool to identify patients requiring referral for endoscopy. Methods: The study was conducted at the University Teaching Hospital endoscopy unit in Lusaka, Zambia. During esophagogastroduodenoscopy, gastric juice was aspirated and the pH determined using pH paper test strips. The presence of blood was tested using urinalysis reagent strips. Results: We enrolled 276 patients; 147(53%) were female and median age was 49 years (IQR 40–64 years). The presence of blood was associated with mucosal lesions, [OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.2–3.7, P = 0.004]. It was also associated with gastric cancer, [OR 6.7; 95% CI 2–35, P = 0.0005], even at 1:10 and 1:100 dilutions, [OR 5.4; 95% CI 2.3–13.8, P<0.0001] and [OR 9.1; 95% CI 3.5–23, P<0.0001] respectively. The sensitivity for gastric cancer detection using blood in gastric juice was 91% and the specificity was 41%. Analysis using the intensity of blood in gastric juice yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78; 95% CI 0.71–0.86 with a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 77%. Conclusions: The presence of blood in gastric juice is associated with gastric mucosal lesions. It has a high sensitivity but low specificity for gastric cancer detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the inequality in the dynamics of the total fertility rate within 21 sub-Saharan African countries by wealth quintiles. We also examine the associated inequality within each country in the proximate determinants of fertility–marriage, contraception, and breastfeeding. Applying Bongaarts’ proximate determinants of fertility framework, for 14/21 countries we analyze, we find that those in the richest wealth quintiles have had a more rapid decline in fertility rates than those in the poorest wealth quintiles. The rapid decline for those in the richest wealth quintiles is attributable to delayed marriage and modest increases in contraceptive use. Although the poorest lag in fertility decline, postpartum abstinence and breastfeeding are the most important factors for them for fertility regulation. Further encouraging maternal health programs that focus on natural methods of fertility regulation will work in favor of the poorest in sub-Saharan Africa in moving through the demographic transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is undergoing a rapid health transition, with an ageing population and disease burden increasingly defined by disability. In Sub-Saharan Africa the next 40 years are predicted to see reduced mortality, signalling a surge in the impact of chronic diseases. We modelled these epidemiological changes and associated mental health workforce requirements. Years lived with a disability (YLD) predictions for mental and substance use disorders for each decade from 2010 to 2050 for four Sub-Saharan African regions were calculated using Global Burden of Disease 2010 study (GBD 2010) data and UN population forecasts. Predicted mental health workforce requirements for 2010 and 2050, by region and for selected countries, were modelled using GBD 2010 prevalence estimates and recommended packages of care and staffing ratios for low- and middle-income countries, and compared to current staffing from the WHO Mental Health Atlas. Significant population growth and ageing will result in an estimated 130% increase in the burden of mental and substance use disorders in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, to 45 million YLDs. As a result, the required mental health workforce will increase by 216,600 full time equivalent staff from 2010 to 2050, and far more compared to the existing workforce. The growth in mental and substance use disorders by 2050 is likely to significantly affect health and productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. To reduce this burden, packages of care for key mental disorders should be provided through increasing the mental health workforce towards targets outlined in this paper. This requires a shift from current practice in most African countries, involving substantial investment in the training of primary care practitioners, supported by district based mental health specialist teams using a task sharing model that mobilises local community resources, with the expansion of inpatient psychiatric units based in district and regional general hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates suitability of supervised machine learning classification methods for classification of biomes using pollen datasets. We assign modern pollen samples from Africa and Arabia to five biome classes using a previously published African pollen dataset and a global ecosystem classification scheme. To test the applicability of traditional and machine-learning based classification models for the task of biome prediction from high dimensional modern pollen data, we train a total of eight classification models, including Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification Decision Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. The ability of each model to predict biomes from pollen data is statistically tested on an independent test set. The Random Forest classifier outperforms other models in its ability correctly classify biomes given pollen data. Out of the eight models, the Random Forest classifier scores highest on all of the metrics used for model evaluations and is able to predict four out of five biome classes to high degree of accuracy, including arid, montane, tropical and subtropical closed and open systems, e.g. forests and savanna/grassland. The model has the potential for accurate reconstructions of past biomes and awaits application to fossil pollen sequences. The Random Forest model may be used to investigate vegetation changes on both long and short time scales, e.g. during glacial and interglacial cycles, or more recent and abrupt climatic anomalies like the African Humid Period. Such applications may contribute to a better understanding of past shifts in vegetation cover and ultimately provide valuable information on drivers of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crime and violence causes massive disruptions to the health, survival and development of populations. In South Africa, incredibly high rates of crime and violence are noted. The country also has a very large youth population whose health, survival and development are key to economic growth. Among other efforts to encourage healthy youth development and the promotion of social activities such as sports, youth groups, choirs and so forth. This study examines the relationship between perceived community safety and the uptake of social activities among youth in South Africa. Data and methods: This paper uses data from the National Youth Lifestyle Survey (2008) with an unweighted sample of 4,391 youth (age12-22 years old). Using chi-square and logistic regression analysis the association between perceived community safety and social activity participation are tested. Findings: The results indicate that youth participation in social activities in South Africa is high (55% of males and 45% of females). Among males, the most prominent activity is sports (51.8%), while for females there is high participation in choir and singing groups (55.68%). More than 50% of males perceive their communities as risky while less than half of females feel the same. Male youth are more likely to participate in social activities if they perceive their communities as risky (OR = 1.04). Females (OR = 0.83), youth have a negative view of their future (OR = 0.43) are less likely to participate in social activities. Conclusions: There exists an association between youth’s perception of community safety and their participation in social activities. Whether sports and groups are protective or enabling environments for youth from unsafe communities is moot. More in-depth research is needed on why youth participate in these clubs and groups to truly understand the role of social activities in South African societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction and method: Africa is currently host to a number of international genomics research and biobanking consortia, each with a mandate to advance genomics research and biobanking in Africa. Whilst most of these consortia promise to transform the way international health research is done in Africa, few have articulated exactly how they propose to go about this. In this paper, we report on a qualitative interviewing study in which we involved 17 genomics researchers in Africa. We describe their perceptions and expectations of international genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa. Results: All interviewees were of the view that externally funded genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa, have played a critical role in building capacity for genomics research and biobanking in Africa and in providing an opportunity for researchers in Africa to collaborate and network with other researchers. Whilst the opportunity to collaborate was seen as a benefit, some interviewees stressed the importance of recognizing that these collaborations carry mutual benefits for all partners, including their collaborators in HICs. They also voiced two major concerns of being part of these collaborative initiatives: the possibility of exploitation of African researchers and the non-sustainability of research capacity building efforts. As a way of minimising exploitation, researchers in Africa recommended that genuine efforts be made to create transparent and equitable international health research partnerships. They suggested that this could be achieved through,: having rules of engagement, enabling African researchers to contribute to the design and conduct of international health projects in Africa, and mutual and respectful exchange of experience and capacity between research collaborators. These were identified as hallmarks to equitable international health research collaborations in Africa. Conclusion: Genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa such as H3Africa have gone some way in defining aspects of fair and equitable research collaborations in Africa. However, they will need to strive at achieving equitable health research collaborations if they truly aim at setting a gold standard for how international health research should be conducted in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The population of Ghana is increasingly becoming urbanized with about 70% of the estimated 27 million people living in urban and peri-urban areas. Nonetheless, eight out of the ten regions in Ghana remain predominantly rural where only 32% of the national health sector workforce works. Moreover, the rural-urban disparities in the density of health tutors (staff responsible for pre-service training of health professionals) are enormous. This paper explores perceived needs of health tutors in rural and urban health training institutions in Ghana. Methods: This is a descriptive qualitative study conducted in the Greater Accra and Northern regions of Ghana. The Study used the deductive thematic and sub-thematic analysis approaches. Five health training institutions were randomly sampled, and 72 tutors engaged in separate focus group discussions with an average size of 14 participants per group in each training institution. Results: Perceived rural-urban disparities among health tutors were found in the payment of extra duty allowances; school infrastructure including libraries and internet connectivity; staff accommodation; and opportunities for scholarships and higher education. Health tutors in rural areas generally expressed more frustration with these work conditions than those in urban areas. Conclusions: There is the need to initiate and sustain work incentives that promote motivation of rural health tutors to control ongoing rural-urban migration of qualified staff. It is recommended the following incentives be prioritized to promote retention of qualified health tutors in rural health training schools: payment of research, book and rural allowances; early promotion of rural staff; prioritizing rural tutors for scholarships, and introduction of national best health tutor awards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural ecosystem services are defined by people’s perception of the environment, which make them hard to quantify systematically. Methods to describe cultural benefits from ecosystems typically include resource-demanding survey techniques, which are not suitable to assess cultural ecosystem services for large areas. In this paper we explore a method to quantify cultural benefits through the enjoyment of natured-based tourism, by assessing the potential tourism attractiveness of species for each protected area in Africa using the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species. We use the number of pictures of wildlife posted on a photo sharing website as a proxy for charisma, popularity, and ease of observation, as these factors combined are assumed to determine how attractive species are for the global wildlife tourist. Based on photo counts of 2473 African animals and plants, species that seem most attractive to nature-based tourism are the Lion, African Elephant and Leopard. Combining the photo counts with species range data, African protected areas with the highest potential to attract wildlife tourists based on attractive species occurrence were Samburu National Reserve in Kenya, Mukogodo Forest Reserve located just north of Mount Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park in South-Africa. The proposed method requires only three data sources which are freely accessible and available online, which could make the proposed index tractable for large scale quantitative ecosystem service assessments. The index directly links species presence to the tourism potential of protected areas, making the connection between nature and human benefits explicit, but excludes other important contributing factors for tourism, such as accessibility and safety. This social media based index provides a broad understanding of those species that are popular globally; in many cases these are not the species of highest conservation concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gridded SST products developed particularly for offshore regions are increasingly being applied close to the coast for biogeographical applications. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the dangers of doing so through a comparison of reprocessed MODIS Terra and Pathfinder v5.2 SSTs, both at 4 km resolution, with instrumental in situ temperatures taken within 400 m from the coast. We report large biases of up to +6°C in places between satellite-derived and in situ climatological temperatures for 87 sites spanning the entire ca. 2 700 km of the South African coastline. Although biases are predominantly warm (i.e. the satellite SSTs being higher), smaller or even cold biases also appear in places, especially along the southern and western coasts of the country. We also demonstrate the presence of gradients in temperature biases along shore-normal transects — generally SSTs extracted close to the shore demonstrate a smaller bias with respect to the in situ temperatures. Contributing towards the magnitude of the biases are factors such as SST data source, proximity to the shore, the presence/absence of upwelling cells or coastal embayments. Despite the generally large biases, from a biogeographical perspective, species distribution retains a correlative relationship with underlying spatial patterns in SST, but in order to arrive at a causal understanding of the determinants of biogeographical patterns we suggest that in shallow, inshore marine habitats, temperature is best measured directly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human migration north through Africa is contentious. This paper uses a novel palaeohydrological and hydraulic modelling approach to test the hypothesis that under wetter climates c.100,000 years ago major river systems ran north across the Sahara to the Mediterranean, creating viable migration routes. We confirm that three of these now buried palaeo river systems could have been active at the key time of human migration across the Sahara. Unexpectedly, it is the most western of these three rivers, the Irharhar river, that represents the most likely route for human migration. The Irharhar river flows directly south to north, uniquely linking the mountain areas experiencing monsoon climates at these times to temperate Mediterranean environments where food and resources would have been abundant. The findings have major implications for our understanding of how humans migrated north through Africa, for the first time providing a quantitative perspective on the probabilities that these routes were viable for human habitation at these times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa. Methods: Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class. Results: At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic. Conclusion: The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a novel laboratory experiment to document the pressure to share income within social networks in Africa. We find that the redistributive pressure exerted via the possibility of receiving a claim increases altruism, while the possibility of hiding from such claim reduces it. Our results indicate that sharing norms are crucial drivers of giving to other members of the network. We also find that pressure to share has a detrimental effect on the undertaking of profitable but risky investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primates are extracted from the wild for the pet trade across the world. In Madagascar, lemurs are kept as illegal pets and an understanding of lemur pet ownership at the national level is lacking. In 2013 and 2016, we undertook a national survey in 11 of Madagascar’s 22 administrative regions (n = 28 towns) with 1,709 households. To our knowledge, this is the first national survey of the household ownership of pet primates in a country where they are endemic. In the 1.5 years prior to being surveyed, 8% ± 4% (towns as replicates) of respondents had seen a captive lemur while a further 0.7% ± 0.5% of respondents had owned one personally. We estimate that 33,428 ± 24,846 lemurs were kept in Malagasy households in the six months prior to our survey efforts, with 18,462 ± 12,963 of these pet lemurs estimated in urban household alone. Rates of lemur ownership did not differ by province but increased with the human population of a town and with the popularity of the town on Flickr (a proxy indicator for tourism). We found that the visibility of pet lemur ownership did not differ across the country, but it did increase with the size of the town and popularity with tourists. Areas with visible pet lemurs were not always the areas with the highest rates of pet lemur ownership, highlighting that many pet lemurs are hidden from the general public. Our study highlights the need for conservation programs to consider both the proportion of inhabitants that own pet lemurs and the total number of lemurs that are potentially being kept as pets in those towns. We close by noting that for some species, even just a small amount of localized live extraction for pet ownership could be enough to cause localized population extinctions over time. Moreover, an urgent response is needed to combat a recent and alarming rise in illegal exploitation of biodiversity across Madagascar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the UN World Population Prospects, we document global trends in lifespan inequality from 1950 until 2015. Our findings indicate that (i) there has been a sustained decline in overall lifespan inequality, (ii) adult lifespan variability has also declined, but some plateaus and trend reversals have been identified, (iii) lifespan inequality among the elderly has increased virtually everywhere, and (iv) most of the world variability in age-at-death can be attributed to within-country variability. Such changes have occurred against a backdrop of generalized longevity increases. Our analyses suggest that the world is facing a new challenge: the emergence of diverging trends in longevity and age-at-death inequality among the elderly around the globe—particularly in high-income areas. As larger fractions of the world population survive to more advanced ages, it will be necessary for national and international health planners to recognize the growing heterogeneity that characterizes older populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Streamlining Tasks & Roles to Expand Treatment and Care for HIV (STRETCH) program was developed to increase the reach of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS patients in Sub-Saharan Africa by training nurses to prescribe, initiate, and maintain ART. Fairall and colleagues conducted a cluster-randomized trial to determine the effects/impact of STRETCH on patient health outcomes in South Africa between 2008 and 2010. The purpose of our replication study is to evaluate Fairall and colleagues’ findings. We conducted push button and pure replication studies and measurement and estimation analyses (MEA). Our MEA validates the original findings: (1) overall, time to death did not differ between intervention (STRETCH) and control (ART) patients; (2) in a subgroup analysis of patients with CD4 counts of 201–350 cells per μL, the intervention group patients had a 30% lower risk of death than those in the control group, when controlling for baseline characteristics; (3) in a subgroup analysis of patients with CD4 counts of ≤200 cells per μL, time to death did not differ between the two groups; and (4) rates of viral suppression one year after enrollment did not differ between the intervention and control groups. This set of results have more caveats in the MEA. Although the intervention did not lead to improvements in the main outcomes, the effectiveness of STRETCH was proven to be similar to standard care while increasing the pool of prescribers, expanding their geographical range, and improving the quality of care for patients. Therefore, our analyses support the implementation of task shifting of antiretroviral therapy from doctors to trained nurses, which enhances confidence in the implementation of the intervention program and policymaking not only in South Africa but also in other developing countries that have similar circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Situated in southeastern Sierra Leone, Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) maintains one of the world’s only Lassa fever isolation wards and was a strategic Ebola virus disease (EVD) treatment facility during the 2014 EVD outbreak. Since 2006, the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Consortium (VHFC) has carried out research activities at KGH, capturing clinical and laboratory data for suspected cases of Lassa fever. Here we describe the approach, progress, and challenges in designing and maintaining a data capture and management system (DCMS) at KGH to assist infectious disease researchers in building and sustaining DCMS in low-resource environments. Results on screening patterns and case-fatality rates are provided to illustrate the context and scope of the DCMS covered in this study. A medical records system and DCMS was designed and implemented between 2010 and 2016 linking historical and prospective Lassa fever data sources across KGH Lassa fever units and its peripheral health units. Data were captured using a case report form (CRF) system, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) plate readers, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) machines, blood chemistry analyzers, and data auditing procedures. Between 2008 and 2016, blood samples for 4,229 suspected Lassa fever cases were screened at KGH, ranging from 219 samples in 2008 to a peak of 760 samples in 2011. Lassa fever case-fatality rates before and following the Ebola outbreak were 65.5% (148/226) and 89.5% (17/19), respectively, suggesting that fewer, but more seriously ill subjects with Lassa fever presented to KGH following the 2014 EVD outbreak (p = .040). DCMS challenges included weak specificity of the Lassa fever suspected case definition, limited capture of patient survival outcome data, internet costs, lapses in internet connectivity, low bandwidth, equipment and software maintenance, lack of computer teaching laboratories, and workload fluctuations due to variable screening activity. DCMS are the backbone of international research efforts and additional literature is needed on the topic for establishing benchmarks and driving goal-based approaches for its advancement in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Urogenital schistosomiasis remains highly endemic in Africa. Current control is based on drug administration, targeted either to school-age children or to high-risk communities at-large. Urine dipsticks for detection of microhematuria offer an inexpensive means for estimating infection prevalence. However, their diagnostic performance has not been systematically evaluated after community treatment, or in areas with continuing low prevalence. The objective of the present study was to perform meta-analysis of dipstick accuracy for S. haematobium infection in endemic regions, with special attention to performance where infection intensity or prevalence was low. Methodology/Principal Findings: This review was registered at inception with PROSPERO (CRD42012002165). Included studies were identified by computerized search of online databases and hand search of bibliographies and existing study archives. Eligible studies included published or unpublished population surveys irrespective of date, location, or language that compared dipstick diagnosis of S. haematobium infection to standard egg-count parasitology. For 95 included surveys, variation in dipstick sensitivity and specificity were evaluated according to study size, age- and sex-specific participation, region, local prevalence, treatment status, and other factors potentially affecting test performance. Independent of prevalence, accuracy was greater in surveys of school-age children (vs. adults), whereas performance was less good in North Africa, as compared to other regions. By hierarchical ROC analysis, overall dipstick sensitivity and specificity for detection of egg-positive urine were estimated at 81% and 89%, respectively. Sensitivity was lower among treated populations (72%) and in population subgroups having lower intensity infection (65%). When the insensitivity of egg count testing was considered (and diagnosis inferred instead from combined hematuria and egg-count findings), overall dipstick sensitivity/specificity were 82%/97%, with significantly better sensitivity (92%) in high prevalence settings. Conclusions/Significance: This analysis suggests that dipsticks will continue to serve as very useful adjuncts for monitoring community prevalence following implementation of population-based control of urogenital schistosomiasis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scapsipedus icipe Hugel and Tanga (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is a newly described edible cricket species. Although, there is substantial interest in mass production of S. icipe for human food and animal feed, no information exists on the impact of temperature on their bionomics. Temperature-dependent development, survival, reproductive and life table parameters of S. icipe was generated and integrated into advanced Insect Life Cycle Modeling software to describe relative S. icipe population increase and spatial spread based on nine constant temperature conditions. We examined model predictions and implications for S. icipe potential distribution in Africa under current and future climate. These regions where entomophagy is widely practiced have distinctly different climates. Our results showed that S. icipe eggs were unable to hatch at 10 and 40°C, while emerged nymphs failed to complete development at 15°C. The developmental time of S. icipe was observed to decrease with increased in temperature. The lowest developmental threshold temperatures estimated using linear regressions was 14.3, 12.67 and 19.12°C and the thermal constants for development were 185.2, 1111.1- and 40.7-degree days (DD) for egg, nymph and pre-adult stages, respectively. The highest total fecundity (3416 individuals/female/generation), intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.075 days), net reproductive rate (1330.8 female/female/generation) and shortest doubling time (9.2 days) was recorded at 30°C. The regions predicted to be suitable by the model suggest that S. icipe is tolerant to a wider range of climatic conditions. Our findings provide for the first-time important information on the impact of temperature on the biology, establishment and spread of S. icipe across the Africa continent. The prospect of edible S. icipe production to become a new sector in food and feed industry is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The underutilization of formal, evidence-based maternal health services continues to contribute to poor maternal outcomes among women living in rural Africa. Women’s choice of the type of maternal care they receive strongly influences their utilization of maternal health services. There is therefore a need to understand rural women’s preferred choices to help set priorities for initiatives attempting to make formal maternal care more responsive to women’s needs. The aim of this review was to explore and identify women’s preferences for different sources of childbirth and postnatal care and the factors that contribute to these preferences. Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using the Ovid Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and Global Health databases. Thirty-seven studies that elicited women’s preferences for childbirth and postnatal care using qualitative methods were included in the review. A narrative synthesis was conducted to collate study findings and to report on patterns identified across findings. Results: During the intrapartum period, preferences varied across communities, with some studies reporting preferences for traditional childbirth with traditional care-takers, and others reporting preferences for a formal facility-based childbirth with health professionals. During the postpartum period, the majority of relevant studies reported a preference for traditional postnatal services involving traditional rituals and customs. The factors that influenced the reported preferences were related to the perceived need for formal or traditional care providers, accessibility to maternal care, and cultural and religious norms. Conclusion: Review findings identified a variety of preferences for sources of maternal care from intrapartum to postpartum. Future interventions aiming to improve access and utilization of evidence-based maternal healthcare services across rural Africa should first identify major challenges and priority needs of target populations and communities through formative research. Evidence-based services that meet rural women’s specific needs and expectations will increase the utilization of formal care and ultimately improve maternal outcomes across rural Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease endemic in tropical regions of Africa, where 90% of the global burden occurs, and Latin America. It is notoriously under-reported with uncertainty arising from a complex transmission cycle including a sylvatic reservoir and non-specific symptom set. Resulting estimates of burden, particularly in Africa, are highly uncertain. We examine two established models of yellow fever transmission within a Bayesian model averaging framework in order to assess the relative evidence for each model’s assumptions and to highlight possible data gaps. Our models assume contrasting scenarios of the yellow fever transmission cycle in Africa. The first takes the force of infection in each province to be static across the observation period; this is synonymous with a constant infection pressure from the sylvatic reservoir. The second model assumes the majority of transmission results from the urban cycle; in this case, the force of infection is dynamic and defined through a fixed value of R0 in each province. Both models are coupled to a generalised linear model of yellow fever occurrence which uses environmental covariates to allow us to estimate transmission intensity in areas where data is sparse. We compare these contrasting descriptions of transmission through a Bayesian framework and trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in order to assess each model’s evidence given the range of uncertainty in parameter values. The resulting estimates allow us to produce Bayesian model averaged predictions of yellow fever burden across the African endemic region. We find strong support for the static force of infection model which suggests a higher proportion of yellow fever transmission occurs as a result of infection from an external source such as the sylvatic reservoir. However, the model comparison highlights key data gaps in serological surveys across the African endemic region. As such, conclusions concerning the most prevalent transmission routes for yellow fever will be limited by the sparsity of data which is particularly evident in the areas with highest predicted transmission intensity. Our model and estimation approach provides a robust framework for model comparison and predicting yellow fever burden in Africa. However, key data gaps increase uncertainty surrounding estimates of model parameters and evidence. As more mathematical models are developed to address new research questions, it is increasingly important to compare them with established modelling approaches to highlight uncertainty in structures and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gender diversity is known to have a positive effect on innovation in developed countries. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of gender diversity for innovation also apply to the particular context of developing countries, which is characterized by diverse and lower levels of gender equality. We propose that gender diversity positively impacts innovation in the developing countries participating in our study. In addition, we expect that this effect is moderated by country-specific levels of gender equality. In a cross-country study covering 18,547 firms in 15 developing countries, we find that gender diversity among a firm’s owners and workforce as well as having a female top manager benefit innovation in developing countries. Yet, contradictory to our expectations, gender equality does not significantly moderate this relationship. As such, our results underline the importance of enabling and fostering gender diversity and have critical implications for firms and policy makers alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial tortoises are the most endangered group of vertebrates but they are still largely ignored for defining global conservation priorities. In this paper, we explored within a hierarchical framework the potential contribution of prioritization studies at the continental scale to the planning of local initiatives for the conservation of African tortoises at the regional level. First, we modeled the distribution of all the African tortoise species, we calculated three indicators of conservation priority (i.e. species richness, conservation value, and complementarity), and we carried out a gap analysis at continental scale. Second, we focused on the most important region for tortoise conservation and performed the same analyses at higher resolution. Finally, we compared the results from the two scales for understanding the degree to which they are complementary. Southern Africa emerged from the continental analysis as the most important region for tortoises. Within this area, the high-resolution analysis pointed out specific core sites for conservation. The relative degree of species protection was assessed similarly at the two different resolutions. Two species appeared particularly vulnerable at both scales. Priority indices calculated at high resolution were correlated to the values calculated for the corresponding cells at low resolution but the congruence was stronger for species richness. Our results suggest to integrate the calculation of conservation value and complementarity into a hierarchical framework driven by species richness. The advantages of large scale planning include its broad perspective on complementarity and the capability to identify regions with greatest conservation potential. In this light, continental analyses allow targeting fine scale studies toward regions with maximum priority. The regional analyses at fine scale allow planning conservation measure at a resolution similar to that required for the practical implementation, reducing the uncertainty associated with low resolution studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by improving financial protection and effective service coverage is target 3.8 of the Sustainable Development Goals. Little is known, however, about the extent to which paying bribes within healthcare acts as a financial barrier to access and, thus, UHC. Methods: Using survey data in adults from 32 sub-Saharan African countries in 2014–2015, we constructed a multilevel model to evaluate the relationship between paying bribes and reported difficulties of obtaining medical care. We controlled for individual-, region-, and country-level variables. Results: Having paid bribes for medical care significantly increased the odds of reporting difficulties in obtaining care by 4.11 (CI: 3.70–4.57) compared to those who never paid bribes, and more than doubled for those who paid bribes often (OR = 9.52; 95% CI: 7.77–11.67). Respondents with higher levels of education and more lived poverty also had increased odds. Those who lived in rural areas or within walking distance to a health clinic had reduced odds of reporting difficulties. Sex, age, living in a capital region, healthcare expenditures per capita, and country Corruption Perception Index were not significant predictors. Conclusions: We found that bribery in healthcare is a significant barrier to healthcare access, negatively affecting the potential of African countries to make progress toward UHC. Future increases in health expenditures—which are needed in many countries to achieve UHC—should be accompanied by greater efforts to fight corruption in order to avoid wasting money. Measuring and tracking health sector-specific corruption is critical for progress toward UHC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Endemic areas for soil-transmitted helminthiases often lack the tools and trained personnel necessary for point-of-care diagnosis. This study pilots the use of smartphone microscopy and an artificial neural network-based object detection application named Kankanet to address those two needs. Methodology/Principal findings: A smartphone was equipped with a USB Video Class (UVC) microscope attachment and Kankanet, which was trained to recognize eggs of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm using a dataset of 2,078 images. It was evaluated for interpretive accuracy based on 185 new images. Fecal samples were processed using Kato-Katz (KK), spontaneous sedimentation technique in tube (SSTT), and Merthiolate-Iodine-Formaldehyde (MIF) techniques. UVC imaging and ANN interpretation of these slides was compared to parasitologist interpretation of standard microscopy.Relative to a gold standard defined as any positive result from parasitologist reading of KK, SSTT, and MIF preparations through standard microscopy, parasitologists reading UVC imaging of SSTT achieved a comparable sensitivity (82.9%) and specificity (97.1%) in A. lumbricoides to standard KK interpretation (97.0% sensitivity, 96.0% specificity). The UVC could not accurately image T. trichiura or hookworm. Though Kankanet interpretation was not quite as sensitive as parasitologist interpretation, it still achieved high sensitivity for A. lumbricoides and hookworm (69.6% and 71.4%, respectively). Kankanet showed high sensitivity for T. trichiura in microscope images (100.0%), but low in UVC images (50.0%). Conclusions/Significance: The UVC achieved comparable sensitivity to standard microscopy with only A. lumbricoides. With further improvement of image resolution and magnification, UVC shows promise as a point-of-care imaging tool. In addition to smartphone microscopy, ANN-based object detection can be developed as a diagnostic aid. Though trained with a limited dataset, Kankanet accurately interprets both standard microscope and low-quality UVC images. Kankanet may achieve sensitivity comparable to parasitologists with continued expansion of the image database and improvement of machine learning technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Worldwide, snakebite envenomations total ~2.7 million reported cases annually with ~100,000 fatalities. Since 2009, snakebite envenomation has intermittently been classified as a very important ‘neglected tropical disease’ by the World Health Organisation. Despite this emerging awareness, limited efforts have been geared towards addressing the serious public health implications of snakebites, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where baseline epidemiological and ecological data remain incomplete. Due to poverty as well as limited infrastructure and public health facilities, people in rural Africa, including Ghana, often have no other choice than to seek treatment from traditional medical practitioners (TMPs). The African ‘snakebite crisis’ is highlighted here using regionally representative complementary data from a community-based epidemiological and ecological study in the savanna zone of northern Ghana. Methodology and findings: Our baseline study involved two data collection methods in the Savelugu-Nanton District (in 2019 the district was separated into Savelugu and Nanton districts) in northern Ghana, comprising a cross-sectional study of 1,000 residents and 24 TMPs between December 2008 and May 2009. Semi-structured interviews, as well as collection of retrospective snakebite and concurrent rainfall records from the Savelugu-Nanton District Hospital and Ghana Meteorological Authority respectively over 10-years (1999–2008) were used in the study. Variables tested included demography, human activity patterns, seasonality, snake ecology and clinical reports. Complementary data showed higher snakebite prevalence during the rainy season, and a hump-shaped correlation between rainfall intensity and snakebite incidences. Almost 6% of respondents had experienced a personal snakebite, whereas ~60% of respondents had witnessed a total of 799 snakebite cases. Out of a total of 857 reported snakebite cases, 24 (~2.8%) died. The highest snakebite prevalence was recorded for males in the age group 15–44 years during farming activities, with most bites occurring in the leg/foot region. The highest snakebite rate was within farmlands, most severe bites frequently caused by the Carpet viper (Echis ocellatus). Conclusion: The relatively high community-based prevalence of ~6%, and case fatality ratio of ~3%, indicate that snakebites represent an important public health risk in northern Ghana. Based on the high number of respondents and long recording period, we believe these data truly reflect the general situation in the rural northern savanna zone of Ghana and West Africa at large. We recommend increased efforts from both local and international health authorities to address the current snakebite health crisis generally compromising livelihoods and productivity of rural farming communities in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preventive chemotherapy (PC) with benzimidazole drugs is the backbone of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control programs. Over the past decade, drug coverage has increased and with it, the possibility of developing anthelmintic resistance. It is therefore of utmost importance to monitor drug efficacy. Currently, a variety of novel diagnostic methods are available, but it remains unclear whether they can be used to monitor drug efficacy. In this study, we compared the efficacy of albendazole (ALB) measured by different diagnostic methods in a head-to-head comparison to the recommended single Kato-Katz. Methods: An ALB efficacy trial was performed in 3 different STH-endemic countries (Ethiopia, Lao PDR and Tanzania), each with a different PC-history. During these trials, stool samples were evaluated with Kato-Katz (single and duplicate), Mini-FLOTAC, FECPAKG2, and qPCR. The reduction rate in mean eggs per gram of stool (ERR) and mean genome equivalents / ml of DNA extract (GERR) were calculated to estimate drug efficacy. Principal findings and conclusions: The results of the efficacy trials showed that none of the evaluated diagnostic methods could provide reduction rates that were equivalent to a single Kato-Katz for all STH. However, despite differences in clinical sensitivity and egg counts, they agreed in classifying efficacy according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. This demonstrates that diagnostic methods for assessing drug efficacy should be validated with their intended-use in mind and that other factors like user-friendliness and costs will likely be important factors in driving the choice of diagnostics. In addition, ALB efficacy against STH infections was lower in sites with a longer history of PC. Yet, further research is needed to identify factors that contribute to this finding and to verify whether reduced efficacy can be associated with mutations in the β-tubulin gene that have previously been linked to anthelmintic resistance. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Voluntary Counseling and Testing for HIV (VCT) and increasing access to male condoms are common strategies to respond to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Using biological and behavioral outcomes, we compared programs to increase access to VCT, male condoms or both among youth in Western Kenya with the standard available HIV prevention services within this setting. Design: A four arm, unblinded randomized controlled trial. Methods: The sample includes 10,245 youth aged 17 to 24 randomly assigned to receive community-based VCT, 150 male condoms, both VCT and condoms, or neither program. All had access to standard HIV services available within their communities. Surveys and blood samples for HSV-2 testing were collected at baseline (2009–2010) and at follow up (2011–2013). VCT was offered to all participants at follow up. HSV-2 prevalence, the primary outcome, was assessed using weighted logistic regressions in an intention-to-treat analysis. Results: For the 7,565 respondents surveyed at follow up, (effective tracking rate = 91%), the weighted HSV-2 prevalence was similar across groups (control group = 10.8%, condoms only group = 9.1%, VCT only group = 10.2%, VCT and condoms group = 11.5%). None of the interventions significantly reduced HSV-2 prevalence; the adjusted odds ratios were 0.87 (95% CI: 0.61–1.25) for condoms only, 0.94 (95% CI: 0.64–1.38) for VCT only, and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.79–1.58) for both interventions. The VCT intervention significantly increased HIV testing (adj OR: 3.54, 95% CI: 2.32–5.41 for VCT only, and adj OR: 5.52, 95% CI: 3.90–7.81 for condoms and VCT group). There were no statistically significant effects on risk of HIV, or on other behavioral or knowledge outcomes including self-reported pregnancy rates. Conclusion: This study suggests that systematic community-based VCT campaigns (in addition to VCT availability at local health clinics) and condom distribution are unlikely on their own to significantly reduce the prevalence of HSV-2 among youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Some studies in developing countries have shown that infant mortality is highly associated with maternal education, implying that maternal education might play an important role in the reduction of infant mortality. However, other research has shown that lower levels of maternal education does not have any significant contribution to infant survival. In this systematic review, we focus on the effect of different levels of maternal education on infant mortality in Ethiopia. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Maternity and Infant Care databases were searched between November 15, 2017 and February 20, 2018. All articles published until February 20, 2018 were included in the study. The data extraction was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA 2009) guidelines. An I2 test was used to assess heterogeneity and a funnel plot was used to check publication bias. Findings: We retrieved 441 records after removing duplications. During screening, 31 articles were fully accessed for data extraction. Finally, five articles were included for analysis. The overall pooled estimate indicated that attending primary education was associated with a 28% reduction in the odds of infant mortality compared to those infants born to mothers who were illiterate, OR: 0.72 (95% CI = 0.66, 0.78). Another pooled estimate indicated that attending secondary education and above was associated with a 45% reduction in the odds of infant mortality compared to those infants born to mothers who were illiterate, OR: 0.55 (95% CI = 0.47, 0.64). Conclusion: From this study, understanding the long-term impact of maternal education may contribute to reduce infant mortality. Therefore, policy makers should give more attention in promoting the role of women through removing institutional and cultural barriers, which hinder women from access to education in order to reduce infant mortality in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over recent decades, Salmonella infection research has predominantly relied on murine infection models. However, in many cases the infection phenotypes of Salmonella pathovars in mice do not recapitulate human disease. For example, Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 is associated with enhanced invasive infection of immunocompromised people in Africa, but infection of mice and other animal models with ST313 have not consistently reproduced this invasive phenotype. The introduction of alternative infection models could help to improve the quality and reproducibility of pathogenesis research by facilitating larger-scale experiments. To investigate the virulence of S. Typhimurium ST313 in comparison with ST19, a combination of avian and insect disease models were used. We performed experimental infections in five lines of inbred and one line of outbred chickens, as well as in the alternative chick embryo and Galleria mellonella wax moth larvae models. This extensive set of experiments identified broadly similar patterns of disease caused by the African and global pathovariants of Salmonella Typhimurium in the chicken, the chicken embryo and insect models. A comprehensive analysis of all the chicken infection experiments revealed that the African ST313 isolate D23580 had a subtle phenotype of reduced levels of organ colonisation in inbred chickens, relative to ST19 strain 4/74. ST313 isolate D23580 also caused reduced mortality in chicken embryos and insect larvae, when compared with ST19 4/74. We conclude that these three infection models do not reproduce the characteristics of the systemic disease caused by S. Typhimurium ST313 in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence suggests that disclosure of HIV status between partners may influence prevention of maternal-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) outcomes. We report partner disclosure in relation to maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake and adherence, and MTCT among postpartum HIV-infected Malawian women. Methods: A cross-sectional mixed-method study was conducted as part of a nationally representative longitudinal cohort study. Between 2014–2016, all (34,637) mothers attending 54 under-5 clinics with their 4–26 week-old infants were approached, of which 98% (33,980) were screened for HIV; infants received HIV-1 DNA testing. HIV-exposure was confirmed in 3,566/33,980 (10.5%). Baseline data from mothers who were known to be HIV-infected at time of screening were included in the current analysis. Guardians (n = 17), newly diagnosed HIV-infected mothers (n = 256) and mothers or infants with undetermined HIV status (n = 30) were excluded. Data collected included socio-demographics, partner disclosure, maternal ART uptake, and adherence. Between 2016–2017, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were conducted with adult mothers (n = 53) and their spouse/cohabiting partners (n = 19), adolescent mothers (n = 13), lost-to-follow up (LTFU) mothers (n = 22), community leaders (n = 23) and healthcare workers (n = 154). Results: Of 3153 known HIV-infected mothers, 2882 (91.4%) reported having a spouse/cohabiting partner. Among 2882 couples, both partners, one partner, and neither partner disclosed to each other in 2090 (72.5%), 622 (21.6%), and 169 (5.9%), respectively. In multivariable models, neither partner disclosing was associated with no maternal ART (aOR 4.7; 95%CI 2.5–8.8), suboptimal treatment adherence (aOR 1.8; 95%CI 1.1–2.8) and MTCT (aOR 2.1; 95%CI 1.1–4.1). Women’s fear of blame by partners was central to decisions not to disclose within couples and when starting new relationships. LTFU mothers struggled to accept and disclose their status, hindering treatment initiation; some were unable to hide ART and feared involuntary disclosure. Conclusion: Partner disclosure seems to play an important role in women’s decisions regarding ART initiation and adherence. Inter-partner non-disclosure was associated with no ART uptake, suboptimal treatment adherence and MTCT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite considerable efforts to prevent HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) among female sex workers (FSW), other sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs, such preventing unintended pregnancies, among FSW have received far less attention. Programs targeting FSW with comprehensive, accessible services are needed to address their broader SRH needs. This study tested the effectiveness of an intervention to increase dual contraceptive method use to prevent STIs, HIV and unintended pregnancy among FSW attending services in drop-in centers (DIC) in two cities in Kenya. The intervention included enhanced peer education, and routine screening for family planning (FP) needs plus expanded non-condom FP method availability in the DIC. Methods: We conducted a two-group, pre-/posttest, quasi-experimental study with 719 FSW (360 intervention group, 359 comparison group). Participants were interviewed at baseline and 6 months later to examine changes in condom and non-condom FP method use. Results: The intervention had a significant positive effect on non-condom, FP method use (OR = 1.38, 95%CI (1.04, 1.83)), but no effect on dual method use. Consistent condom use was reported to be high; however, many women also reported negotiating condom use with both paying and non-paying partners as difficult or very difficult. The strongest predictor of consistent condom use was partner type (paying versus non-paying/emotional); FSW reported both paying and non-paying partners also influence non-condom contraceptive use. Substantial numbers of FSW also reported experiencing sexual violence by both paying and non-paying partners. Conclusions: Self-reported difficulties with consistent condom use and the sometimes dangerous conditions under which they work leave FSW vulnerable to unintended pregnancy STIs/HIV. Adding non-barrier FP methods to condoms is crucial to curb unintended pregnancies and their potential adverse health, social and economic consequences. Findings also highlight the need for additional strategies beyond condoms to reduce HIV and STI risk among FSW. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How pervasive is labor market discrimination against immigrants and what options do policymakers and migrants have to reduce it? To answer these questions, we conducted a field experiment on employer discrimination in Sweden. Going beyond existing work, we test for a large range of applicant characteristics using a factorial design. We examine whether migrants can affect their employment chances—by adopting citizenship, acquiring work experience, or signaling religious practice—or whether fixed traits such as country of birth or gender are more consequential. We find little systematic evidence that immigrants can do much to reduce discrimination. Rather, ethnic hierarchies are critical: callback rates decline precipitously with the degree of ethno-cultural distance, leaving Iraqis and Somalis, especially if they are male, with much reduced employment chances. These findings highlight that immigrants have few tools at their disposal to escape ethnic penalties and that efforts to reduce discrimination must address employer prejudice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery models, in which patients are provided with care relevant to their current status (e.g., newly initiating, stable on treatment, or unstable on treatment) has become an essential part of patient-centered health systems. In 2015, the South African government implemented Chronic Disease Adherence Guidelines (AGLs), which involved five interventions: Fast Track Initiation Counseling for newly initiating patients, Enhanced Adherence Counseling for patients with an unsuppressed viral load, Early Tracing of patients who miss visits, and Adherence Clubs (ACs) and Decentralized Medication Delivery (DMD) for stable patients. We evaluated two of these interventions in 24 South African facilities: ACs, in which patients meet in groups outside usual clinic procedures and receive medication; and DMD, in which patients pick up their medication outside usual pharmacy queues.Methods and Findings: We compared those participating in ACs or receiving DMD at intervention sites to those eligible for ACs or DMD at control sites. Outcomes were retention and sustained viral suppression (<400 copies/mL) 12 months after AC or DMD enrollment (or comparable time for controls). 12 facilities were randomly allocated to intervention and 12 to control arms in four provinces (Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, and KwaZulu Natal). We calculated adjusted risk differences (aRDs) with cluster adjustment using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) using difference in differences (DiD) with patients eligible for ACs/DMD prior to implementation (Jan 1, 2015) for comparison. For DMD, randomization was not preserved, and the analysis was treated as observational. For ACs, 275 intervention and 294 control patients were enrolled; 72% of patients were female, 61% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 268 cells/μL. AC patients had higher 1-year retention (89.5% versus 81.6%, aRD: 8.3%; 95% CI: 1.1% to 15.6%) and comparable sustained 1-year viral suppression (<400 copies/mL any time ≤ 18 months) (80.0% versus 79.6%, aRD: 3.8%; 95% CI: -6.9% to 14.4%). Retention associations were apparently stronger for men than women (men RD: 13.1%, 95% CI: 0.3% to 23.5%; women RD: 6.0%, 95% CI: -0.9% to 12.9%). For DMD, 232 intervention and 346 control patients were enrolled; 71% of patients were female, 65% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 270 cells/μL. DMD patients had apparently lower retention (81.5% versus 87.2%, aRD: -5.9%; 95% CI: -12.5% to 0.8%) and comparable viral suppression versus standard of care (77.2% versus 74.3%, aRD: -1.0%; 95% CI: -12.2% to 10.1%), though in both cases, our findings were imprecise. We also noted apparently increased viral suppression among men (RD: 11.1%; 95% CI: -3.4% to 25.5%). The main study limitations were missing data and lack of randomization in the DMD analysis.Conclusions: In this study, we found comparable DMD outcomes versus standard of care at facilities, a benefit for retention of patients in care with ACs, and apparent benefits in terms of retention (for AC patients) and sustained viral suppression (for DMD patients) among men. This suggests the importance of alternative service delivery models for men and of community-based strategies to decongest primary healthcare facilities. Because these strategies also reduce patient inconvenience and decongest clinics, comparable outcomes are a potential success. The cost of all five AGL interventions and possible effects on reducing clinic congestion should be investigated.Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02536768. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2016 the first African emergency care clinical practice guideline (CPG) was developed for national uptake in the prehospital sector in South Africa, with implementation starting in 2018. Comprehensive uptake of CPGs post development is not a given, as this requires effective and efficient dissemination and implementation strategies that take into account the perceptions, barriers and facilitators of the local end-users. This study aimed to identify prehospital end-users’ perceptions of the emergency care guidelines, including barriers and facilitators for national decision makers, to strengthen CPG uptake in South Africa. Methods: Our study employed a descriptive qualitative research design, including nine focus groups with 56 operational emergency care providers across four major provinces in South Africa. Data was analysed using thematic analysis in ATLAS.ti. Ethics approval was provided by Stellenbosch University. Results: Themes related to provider perceptions, expectations and guideline uptake emerging from the data was unofficial and unclear communication, broadening versus limiting guideline expectations, conflicted personal reactions and spreading the word. Challenges to dissemination and implementation included poor communication, changes to scope of practice, and limited capacity to upskill existing providers. Facilitators included using technology for end-user documents, local champions to support change, establishing online and modular training, and implementation by independent decision makers. Conclusion: This study provides an overview of the perceptions of operational emergency care providers and how their experiences of hearing about and engaging with the guidelines, in their industry, can contribute to the dissemination, implementation and uptake of emergency care guidelines. In order to disseminate and implement an emergency care CPG, decision makers must take into account the perceptions, barriers, and facilitators of local end-users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of regional trends in the rural-urban fertility gradient helps us to understand the pace of completion of the fertility transition and the geography of urban growth in the global South. We question whether the hypothesized inverted U-shaped evolution in rural excess fertility is confirmed in four developing regions, and investigate the underlying fertility dynamics by place of residence. Using multiple surveys for 60 developing countries, we analyze long-term rural and urban trends in cohort fertility. The regional comparison is controlled for the international heterogeneity in the stages attained in the fertility transition and the context of urbanization. We found a clearly inverted U-shaped trend in the rural-urban fertility gradient in Latin America, the Middle East and Northern Africa. In Asia, rural excess fertility remained limited. In sub-Saharan Africa it increased monotonically until the most recent cohorts. These differences stem from variations in the urban-to-rural diffusion of the onset of fertility transition and, in sub-Saharan Africa, from a slower pace of decline in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]