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Abstract Reliable and objective data regarding building stock is essential for predicting and analyzing energy demand and carbon emission. However, China's building stock data is lacking. This study proposes a set of China building floor space estimation method (CBFSM) based on the improved building stock turnover model. Then it measures China's building stocks by vintage and type from 2000 to 2015, as well as building energy intensity (national level and provincial level) and energy-efficient buildings. Results showed that total building stocks increased significantly, rising from 35.2 billion m2 in 2000 to 63.6 billion m2 in 2015, with the average growth rate 4.0%. The deviations were well below 10% by comparing with China Population Census , which validated the reliability of CBFSM and the results. As for energy intensity, urban dwellings and rural dwellings showed relatively stable and increasing trend respectively. The commercial building energy intensity saw a downward trend during "12th Five Year Plan" period. This indicated the effectiveness of building energy efficiency work for commercial buildings since 2005.38.6 billion m2 residential dwellings and 5.7 billion m2 commercial buildings still need to be retrofitted in future. CBFSM can overcome shortages in previous studies. It can also provide Chinese government with technical support and data evidence to promote the building energy efficiency work. Graphical abstract The building stock in China's different provinces and climate zones in 2015. Image Highlights • Proposed a China building floor space estimation method (CBFSM) based on improved building stock turnover model. • Estimated China's building stocks by type and vintage from 2000 to 2015 using CBFSM. • Calculated the building energy intensity at the national level and provincial level. • Estimated the size of the energy efficient buildings in China. • Validated the results of study by comparing with the data from China Population Census; the deviations are well below 10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon mitigation effectiveness in the building sector profoundly determines the achievement of the "Dual carbon" target. However, the timetable and roadmap for the building sector to achieve such a target are still lacking. This study constructs a STIRPAT-PLS model framework to clarify the impact of the key factors from various dimensions on building carbon emissions across sub-sectors. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is established and applied in China to explore the dynamic evolutionary paths, and the timetable and roadmap are ultimately formulated. The results show that building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). Rural residential buildings will peak earliest in 2026 (± 1), followed by urban residential and commercial buildings: in 2036 (± 2) and 2038 (± 1). Achieving carbon neutrality will require the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. The remaining 0.56–0.81 Gt CO 2 by 2060 will be offset by negative carbon technologies. Dynamic sensitivity analysis shows that building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks, and population and building floor space per capita markedly impact the peaking times. This study can promote the development of the theory and model for carbon emissions prediction. It can also offer a scientific basis for governments to set effective carbon-reduction targets and paths. [Display omitted] • Constructing a STIRPAT-PLS model to clarify the impact of critical factors on building carbon emissions. • Establishing a dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis. • Building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). • Achieving carbon neutrality requires the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. • Building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]