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Global warming induced by atmospheric CO2 has attracted increasing attention of researchers all over the world. Although space-based technology provides the ability to map atmospheric CO2 globally, the number of valid CO2 measurements is generally limited for certain instruments owing to the presence of clouds, which in turn constrain the studies of global CO2 sources and sinks. Thus, it is a potentially promising work to combine the currently available CO2 measurements. In this study, a strategy for fusing SCIAMACHY and GOSAT CO2 measurements is proposed by fully considering the CO2 global bias, averaging kernel, and spatiotemporal variations as well as the CO2 retrieval errors. Based on this method, a global CO2 map with certain UTC time can also be generated by employing the pattern of the CO2 daily cycle reflected by Carbon Tracker (CT) data. The results reveal that relative to GOSAT, the global spatial coverage of the combined CO2 map increased by 41.3% and 47.7% on a daily and monthly scale, respectively, and even higher when compared with that relative to SCIAMACHY. The findings in this paper prove the effectiveness of the combination method in supporting the generation of global full-coverage XCO2 maps with higher temporal and spatial sampling by jointly using these two space-based XCO2 datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological and oceanographic data from ships of opportunity are the largest contributor to the world’s ocean surface database and thus are extensively used to estimate the change in climatic properties over the world’s oceans during the previous 150 years. The importance of these data for climate change studies underscores the need to fully understand the error associated with averages of these data. The sampling error problem is especially acute for ship data due to the fact that ships are moving platforms and, thus, report observations from constantly varying locations with time. This paper develops a theoretical framework for assessing the averaged sampling error associated with monthly, 1°×1° latitude-longitude box averaged ship data. It should be noted that the time-space distribution of ships within the averaging domain strongly affects the sampling error. This is shown in our derivation. The framework developed here can be used to improve upon existing methods for estimating the sampling error associated with three-dimensional box averages of meteorological and oceanographic data obtained from ship records. The framework is complimentary to existing methods of assessing biases and random error due to instrumentation, recording, etc. It is demonstrated mathematically that the uncertainty due to incomplete sampling is primarily a trade off between of the number of observations and their relative locations within the box as well as the inherent time-space correlation structure of the variable of interest. This work differs from other studies in that the three-dimensional interdependence of data is taken into account in deriving an expression for the sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” in the climate change scientific community. Recent research has identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework of vulnerability is a prerequisite for computational approaches to its assessment. This paper presents an attempt at developing such a formal framework. We see vulnerability as a relative concept in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (1) the entity that is vulnerable, (2) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and (3) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus. We relate the resulting framework to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conceptualisation of vulnerability and two recent vulnerability studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-art of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders’ view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders’ suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrology of scarce-data areas, such as the mountainous area of the Andes, is poorly known mainly owing to the lack of data. Global gridded climatological datasets (GGCDs) are becoming more precise and common, but the utility of these datasets and their applicability to complex hydrological systems are still not yet well determined. In this paper the reliability of a GGCD is evaluated as an alternative source to supply the lacking in situ observations, with the aim of studying the hydrology of a mountainous area in south-central Chile. The GGCDs are found to recover the climate variability in Andean areas, and partially recover the orographic effect caused by the mountains. A finding of practical relevance is that GGCDs could be considered as an adequate source for performing hydrological models and studies under high spatial variability and scarce-data environments such as the Andes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) recently (re-)emerged in the literature as a key atmospheric mode in Northern Hemisphere climate variability, especially in the Pacific sector. Defined as a dipole of sea level pressure (SLP) between, roughly, Alaska and Hawaii, the NPO is connected with downstream weather conditions over North America, serves as the atmospheric forcing pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and is a potential mechanism linking extratropical atmospheric variability to El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. This paper explores further the forcing dynamics of the NPO and, in particular, that of its individual poles. Using observational data and experiments with a simple atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we illustrate that the southern pole of the NPO (i.e., the one near Hawaii) contains significant power at low frequencies (7-10 years), while the northern pole (i.e., the one near Alaska) has no dominant frequencies. When examining the low-frequency content of the NPO and its poles separately, we discover that low-frequency variations (periods >7 years) of the NPO (particularly its subtropical node) are intimately tied to variability in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Niño-Modoki/Central Pacific Warming (CPW) phenomenon. This result suggests that fluctuations in subtropical North Pacific SLP are important to monitor for Pacific low-frequency climate change. Using the simple AGCM, we also illustrate that variability in central tropical Pacific SSTs drives a significant fraction of variability of the southern node of the NPO. Taken together, the results highlight important links between secondary modes (i.e., CPW-NPO-NPGO) in Pacific decadal variability, akin to already established relationships between the primary modes of Pacific climate variability (i.e., canonical El Niño, the Aleutian Low, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While most projections of climate change and its regional impacts focus on overall changes in the state of the climate system, useful information can also be found in the evolution of the climate system from one state to another. Here the authors introduce one method for identifying regions in which significant and systematic long-term nonlinear evolutions may be present, even given quasi-linear anthropogenic forcing. Using climate change projections taken from simulations of NCAR’s Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the authors then employ the technique to isolate systematic nonlinear behavior of soil moisture variations over the United States. While the projections presented here only represent the results from one model system, it is argued that such nonlinear behavior is an important characteristic of future climate change that should be considered when discussing both short-term and long-term impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the “delta method” to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature–mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heat-related mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature–mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heat-related mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As an important part of the regional environment, the wet-dry climate condition is determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (expressed as ET ). Based on weather station data, this study first calculated ET by using the FAO56 Penman-Monteith model. Then, the dryness index K (ratio of ET to precipitation) was used to study the spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry condition in China from 1961 to 2015; moreover, dominant climatic factors of the wet-dry condition change were discussed. The annual precipitation and ET of the Qinling-Huaihe line were close to a balance ( K≈1.0). The annual precipitation in most areas exceeded the ET in the south of this line and the east of Hengduan Mountains ( K<1.0), where the climate is wet. Furthermore, the precipitation in the northwest inland areas of China, where the climate is dry, was markedly lower than ET ( K≥4.0). The overall annual K of China fluctuated around the 55-year mean and its linear trend was not significant. However, a relatively wet period of about 10 yr (1987-1996) was recorded. The overall annual K of China showed strong cyclicality on the time scale of 3, 7-8, 11 and 26-28 yr, and regional differences of the annual K trends and cyclicality were large. The degrees of wetness in the Northwest China and western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were substantially increased, whereas the degrees of dryness in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Sichuan Basin, and Loess Plateau were markedly increased. The linear trend of the annual K in most regions of China was not significant, and the annual K of most areas in China showed strong cyclicality on the 8-14 yr time scale. Precipitation was the dominant factor of wet-dry condition change in most areas, especially in North China, where the annual K change was highly correlated with precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject-matter experts from government agen-cies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and pro-vide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assess-ments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate-change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assess-ment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030. even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As investment and policy decision-makers grapple with the implications of climate change, benefits are seen in making available to them climate information at spatial and temporal scales that match the realms within which those decision-makers operate. For such an endeavour to have lasting economic and social benefits, however, the information must be carefully placed within the broader environmental, economic, social and institutional context within which decisions are made. This paper illustrates the challenges and opportunities of doing so, and uses information on the cost of inaction to illustrate the contributions that may come from advancements in climate modelling and information delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets out the challenges of adapting suburbs for climate change in the context of the compact city agenda. We argue that while the compact city debate does address mitigating climate change at a strategic level, it does not specifically consider adapting existing suburban areas to cope with anticipated changes. We discuss the possibilities for, and challenges of, suburban adaptation. In terms of the built environment, such challenges include: difficulties retrofitting existing housing stock, the fragmented ownership and management of land and housing, and the slow pace of change in suburban areas. In terms of mobilizing social change to affect adaptation, problems of coordinating multi-actor partnerships, developing political will, generating public acceptance, and encouraging behaviour change are identified. We conclude that suburbs pose unique challenges for realizing transformations, and that the "sustainable development' and 'climate change' discourses have yet to be fully integrated in the light of potential conflicts between mitigation and adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Most research linking global environmental change and food security focuses solely on agriculture: either the impact of climate change on agricultural production, or the impact of agriculture on the environment, e.g. on land use, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and/or biodiversity. Important though food production is, many other factors also need to be considered to understand food security. A recent international conference on “Environmental Change and Food Security: Bridging Science, Policy and Development for Adaptation” included a range of papers that embraced the multiple dimensions of the food systems that underpin food security. The major conclusion from the conference was that technical fixes alone will not solve the food security challenge. Adapting to the additional threats to food security arising from major environmental changes requires an integrated food system approach, not just a focus on agricultural practices. Six key issues emerged for future research: (i) adapting food systems to global environmental change requires more than just technological solutions to increase agricultural yields; (ii) tradeoffs across multiple scales among food system outcomes are a pervasive feature of globalized food systems; (iii) within food systems, there are some key underexplored areas that are both sensitive to environmental change but also crucial to understanding its implications for food security and adaptation strategies; (iv) scenarios specifically designed to investigate the wider issues that underpin food security and the environmental consequences of different adaptation options are lacking; (v) price variability and volatility often threaten food security; and (vi) more attention needs to be paid to the governance of food systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Modern humans can be described as a colonizing species expanding its range from pole to pole in the course of the Holocene. The range shifts during the Late Pleniglacial in Europe form a case study in the limiting factors of early modern human colonizing behaviour. The paper provides an overview of the settlement history of Late Pleniglacial Europe (29–12.4ka BP). The patterns of presence and absence are described in terms of biogeographical processes of abandonment, stasis and expansion. These trajectories differ from region to region, probably in response to climatic change. I explore the relationship between climate change and settlement history by focusing on the role of herbivore diversity. Patterning in herbivore diversity in relation to plant abundance and quality is proposed as an important factor in determining long-term settlement patterns in Late Pleniglacial Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The time span of the past 200ka has been marked by many large-scale global and regional climate changes, between warmer and cooler conditions. As is usually the case when studying the past, palaeoenvironmental data become scarcer with increasing age. Therefore, every detailed palaeoenvironmental record may be of special interest to Quaternary geologists in terms of palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, correlations and general stratigraphy of the Quaternary. In this paper we present a long palynological record of terrestrial flora and an ESR-dated marine record of global-scale climatic variation obtained from a loess–palaeosol sequence in the East European Plain and continental margin of Northern Eurasia for the time span starting from the penultimate glacial period correlating with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. These records show that in combination they have a potential of assigning warm/cold climate related deposits to the chronostratigraphically organised sequence of the late Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental events. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper questions the long-held paradigm of consumers'' rationality as well as its corresponding policy tool, the supply of information. Theoretical considerations as well as empirical evidence from a research on residential energy consumption in Belgium show that both environmental information – namely on climate change – and customised advice to save energy at home are neither just taken in as such by consumers nor translated into corresponding practices. In consumerist societies, practice compartmentalisation and moods are indeed normalised mechanisms for not adopting ‘green’ lifestyles that would threaten social normality as defined in valued networks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Copyright of Irrigation & Drainage is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The news media are a central source of information about climate change for most people. Through frames, media transmit information that shape how people understand climate change as well as the actions they are ultimately willing to support to address the problem. This article reviews the rise of climate change in the US news media and the emergence of related frames in public discourse. In doing so, it traces the roots of partisan divisions over climate change and highlights the role that events, journalistic practices, technological changes, and individual-level factors such as ideological and partisan identity have played in fostering polarization. The article concludes by identifying the core challenges facing communicators who seek to build consensus for action on climate change and highlights the most viable solutions for achieving success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The long-term offshore wind characteristics in the Mediterranean Sea are assessed using the ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1979-2014. Three main aspects of the wind climate analysis are examined in detail; the spatio-temporal behaviour (including variability characteristics) of wind speed and direction for the annual and monthly time scale; the joint association of wind speed and direction for the annual and monthly time scale, and; the wind speed trends and wind direction changes. From this analysis, the systematic wind flow patterns are identified and the general features of the wind climatology patterns are revealed. The most typical examples of stable and intense regional winds are the Mistral (throughout the year) in the Gulf of Lion and the Etesians (during summer) in the Aegean Sea. High values of mean annual variability of wind speed occur over the western part of the basin (Balearic, Tyrrhenian and Ligurian sub-basins) as well as over the Adriatic and N Aegean Seas, and the E Levantine Basin. Moreover, the assessment of the joint association of wind speed and direction indicates that areas with high values of linear-circular correlation are the ones characterized by intense wind climate. As regards, long-term changes of wind speed and direction, the linear trend for the former and the angular distance for the latter variable are provided. The fastest increasing wind speed trends are observed in the Ionian, the N Tyrrhenian and N Adriatic Seas, the eastern part of the Algerian Basin up to Balearic Isl. and the western part of the S Levantine Basin while the fastest decreasing ones are observed offshore Monaco, the central Aegean and the E Alboran Seas and the N Levantine Basin. The highest values of angular variance and mean angular distances are depicted for the Ligurian, Balearic and Alboran Seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A combination of historical bivalve surveys spanning 30–50 years and contemporary sampling were used to document the changes in bivalve community structure over time at four southern California and one northern Baja California estuaries. While there are limitations to the interpretation of historic data, we observed generally similar trends of reduced total bivalve species richness, losses of relatively large and/or deeper-dwelling natives, and gains of relatively small, surface dwelling introduced species across the southern California estuaries, despite fairly distinct bivalve communities. A nearly 50-year absence of bivalves from two wetlands surveyed in a Baja California estuary continued. A combination of site history and current characteristics (e.g., location, depth) likely contributes to maintenance of distinct communities, and both episodic and gradual environmental changes likely contribute to within-estuary temporal shifts (or absences). We highlight future research needed to determine mechanisms underlying patterns so that we can better predict responses of bivalve communities to future scenarios, including climate change and restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a number of statistical techniques in an attempt to quantify the magnitude, and to determine the significance of trends in the number of rainy days and mean rainfall over Rwanda on a monthly, seasonal and annual timescale. Trend analysis of the number of rainy days (1961–1992) was performed on daily values collected from 25 weather stations and the rainfall trends (1935–1992) were analysed using aggregated mean monthly data from 28 weather stations. The magnitude and significance of trends at 95% interval level derived from the slopes of the regression lines are presented spatially with the help of maps. It was observed that on average, there was a steady decline in the frequency of rainfall across the country. A significant incline was registered mainly over the northern region and the number of rainy days decreased significantly over the eastern and central plateau. The mean rainfall was found to increase sharply in most parts, especially in the regions around Kivu Lake during the short rainy seasons. The central region of Rwanda displayed a diminishing trend in rainfall totals in January and February. At the same time, the wet areas located in the highlands and around Kivu Lake are becoming wetter compared to the rest of the country. The highlands were consequently experiencing more flooding, with the eastern lowlands and the central plateau becoming warmer. These phenomena have an adverse effect on crop production, as they cause failure and/or destruction. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Time series of global and regional mean surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice was investigated using reanalysis data as a test bed. Techniques that interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than noninterpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies, and simple kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Noninterpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979-2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations in spatio-temporal patterns of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis (HME) infection in the state of Kansas, USA were examined and the relationship between HME relative risk and various environmental, climatic and socio-economic variables were evaluated. HME data used in the study was reported to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment between years 2005–2012, and geospatial variables representing the physical environment [National Land cover/Land use, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)], climate [NASA MODIS, Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy (POWER)], and socio-economic conditions (US Census Bureau) were derived from publicly available sources. Following univariate screening of candidate variables using logistic regressions, two Bayesian hierarchical models were fit; a partial spatio-temporal model with random effects and a spatio-temporal interaction term, and a second model that included additional covariate terms. The best fitting model revealed that spatio-temporal autocorrelation in Kansas increased steadily from 2005–2012, and identified poverty status, relative humidity, and an interactive factor, ‘diurnal temperature range x mixed forest area’ as significant county-level risk factors for HME. The identification of significant spatio-temporal pattern and new risk factors are important in the context of HME prevention, for future research in the areas of ecology and evolution of HME, and as well as climate change impacts on tick-borne diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation of biodiversity demands comprehension of evolutionary and ecological patterns and processes that occur over vast spatial and temporal scales. A central goal of ecology is to understand the climatic factors that control ecological processes and this has become even more important in the face of climate change. Especially at global scales, there can be enormous uncertainty in underlying environmental data used to explain ecological processes, but that uncertainty is rarely quantified or incorporated into ecological models. In this study, a climate-aided Bayesian kriging approach is used to interpolate 20 years of daily meteorological observations (maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) to a 1 arc-min grid for the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Independent validation data revealed overall predictive performance of the interpolation to have R2 values of 0.90, 0.85, and 0.59 for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, respectively. A suite of ecologically relevant climate metrics that include the uncertainty introduced by the interpolation were then generated. By providing the high-resolution climate metric surfaces and uncertainties, this work facilitates richer and more robust predictive modelling in ecology and biogeography. These data can be incorporated into ecological models to propagate the uncertainties through to the final predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of watershed models with minimal quantified uncertainty under nonstationary conditions is a major challenge in the field of hydrology. This is especially problematic in data-poor areas where values for model inputs are lacking or measured on temporally and/or spatially sparse scales. The objective of this work is to conduct a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) of the Pitman semidistributed hydrologic model for the data-poor Okavango Basin in southern Africa under both stationary and climate change scenarios. The Morris GSA method allowed qualitative ranking of important model inputs whereas the variance-based Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) method quantitatively identified the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity to these inputs. Results showed that the most important model inputs determining mean annual flow and model fit to observed data were the infiltration rate and the temporal rainfall distribution. In addition, the wetter western headwaters region was shown to be the most important region in determining the flow at the outlet of the basin. Parameter equifinality was significant in this study, and hence the evaluation of the relationships between mechanisms was not straightforward. Analysis of model results under climate change scenarios showed that a hot and wet scenario introduced more change in mean annual flow than a hot and dry scenario. The climate change scenarios also altered model sensitivity. For example, the parameter that controls the rate of infiltration decreased in importance and the parameter that controls soil moisture storage gained importance under the dry scenario. These results are useful when determining the applicability of model predictions under stationary and nonstationary conditions and when focusing watershed monitoring efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecology Letters (2012) Abstract Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change. We show how despite significant variation among species in sensitivities to climate, comparable patterns emerge at the community level once regional climate drivers are accounted for. However, communities differ with respect to projected patterns of divergence and overlap among their species' phenological distributions in response to climate change. These analyses and a review of hypotheses suggest how explicit consideration of spatial scale and levels of biological organisation may help to understand and forecast phenological responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors use singular spectrum analysis to investigate the relative magnitude of decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in annual and seasonal precipitation anomalies across North America. In most places, decadal (10–20 yr) or multidecadal (20–50 yr) variability makes up less than 10% of the total variance in either annual or seasonal precipitation, with interannual variability or secular trends having much greater importance. Decadal variability is most prominent (contributing 25%–30% of the total variance) in Minnesota and northern California during winter, and the central Rocky Mountains in autumn. Eastern Québec is the only major region where precipitation exhibits significant variance in the multidecadal band. Precipitation across much of Canada exhibits significant variance at extremely low frequencies (greater than 50 yr), but variability at these time scales cannot be separated from secular trends because of the limited length of instrumental climate records. Decadal signals in the discharge of the Sacramento River and, to a lesser degree, the Colorado River are coherent and in phase with similar signals in regional precipitation. Prominent D2M signals do not resemble the low-frequency components of major climate modes such as ENSO or the PDO, which suggests that this behavior is not a product of a simple linear translation of a single climate forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate response of the equatorial Pacific to increased greenhouse gases is investigated using numerical experiments from 11 climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report. Multimodel mean climate responses to CO2 doubling are identified and related to changes in the heat budget of the surface layer. Weaker ocean surface currents driven by a slowing down of the Walker circulation reduce ocean dynamical cooling throughout the equatorial Pacific. The combined anomalous ocean dynamical plus radiative heating from CO2 is balanced by different processes in the western and eastern basins: Cloud cover feedbacks and evaporation balance the heating over the warm pool, while increased cooling by ocean vertical heat transport balances the warming over the cold tongue. This increased cooling by vertical ocean heat transport arises from increased near-surface thermal stratification, despite a reduction in vertical velocity. The stratification response is found to be a permanent feature of the equilibrium climate potentially linked to both thermodynamical and dynamical changes within the equatorial Pacific. Briefly stated, ocean dynamical changes act to reduce (enhance) the net heating in the east (west). This explains why the models simulate enhanced equatorial warming, rather than El Niño–like warming, in response to a weaker Walker circulation. To conclude, the implications for detecting these signals in the modern observational record are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models (GCMs) contain imprecisely defined parameters that account, approximately, for subgrid-scale physical processes. The response of a GCM to perturbations in its parameters, which is crucial for quantifying uncertainties in simulations of climate change, can—in principle—be assessed by simulating the GCM many times. In practice, however, such “perturbed physics” ensembles are small because GCMs are so expensive to simulate. Statistical tools can help in two ways. First, they can be used to combine ensembles from different but related experiments, increasing the effective number of simulations. Second, they can be used to describe the GCM’s response in ways that cannot be extracted directly from the ensemble(s). The authors combine two experiments to learn about the response of the Hadley Centre Slab Climate Model version 3 (HadSM3) climate sensitivity to 31 model parameters. A Bayesian statistical framework is used in which expert judgments are required to quantify the relationship between the two experiments; these judgments are validated by detailed diagnostics. The authors identify the entrainment rate coefficient of the convection scheme as the most important single parameter and find that this interacts strongly with three of the large-scale-cloud parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian analysis is applied to detect changepoints in the time series of seasonal typhoon counts in the vicinity of Taiwan. An abrupt shift in the typhoon count series occurs in 2000. On average, 3.3 typhoons per year have been noted before 2000 (1970–99), with the rate increasing to 5.7 typhoons per year since 2000 (2000–06). This abrupt change is consistent with a northward shift of the typhoon track over the western North Pacific–East Asian region and an increase of typhoon frequency over the Taiwan–East China Sea region. The northward shift of the typhoon track tends to be associated with typhoon-enhancing environmental conditions over the western North Pacific, namely, the weakening of the western North Pacific subtropical high, the strengthening of the Asian summer monsoon trough, and the enhanced positive vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere. Based on observational analysis and model simulations, warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial western and central Pacific appear to be a major factor contributing to a northward-shifted typhoon track. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hydrology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow “center” timing (the day in the “water-year” on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States—the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier “center” timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p < 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maps are essential in climate change research and policymaking, and are primary tools for communicating climate change information to the public. The consequences of cartographic design are potentially significant to understanding climate change and effectively informing policymakers. Yet, the cartographic design and quality of climate change maps have not been critically assessed nor systematically evaluated. We suggest that evaluating the quality of climate change maps is both timely and essential, and offer one approach as a demonstration. We use cartographic design principles to evaluate a ‘high visibility’ climate change map from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our specific goals are to demonstrate the need and value of cartographic critique, describe how such evaluation can be accomplished, and make a case for cartographers’ engagement with climate change scientists in mapping activities. We suggest a research and policy agenda for the cartographic evaluation and design of climate change maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision support has become a popular concept, especially in the context of climate change. Government agencies and researchers increasingly recognize that they should provide it, and resource managers and policy-makers increasingly need and demand it. This demand will only grow as climate change progresses. Those who will attempt to meet this growing demand will need to demonstrate “effectiveness”. This editorial raises a number of critical questions that need to be answered in the course of evaluating whether decision support is effective. The answers, if carefully considered early on, may help to design processes that may in fact produce more useable products, facilitate their use, and ultimately create intended and desirable outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores international governance issues related to a possible future use of geoengineering techniques. Despite the serious arguments against geoengineering, policy-makers may start to take an interest in it in the medium term. The article identifies non-technical characteristics of geoengineering which might influence governance models, and then discusses three broad approaches: through the United Nations, by one state unilaterally, and through a consortium of states. An examination of international legal instruments reveals none that would pose an insuperable barrier to geoengineering. Finally, the article argues for early exploration of the technological, environmental, political and regulatory issues raised by geoengineering, to maximize the chances of good, science-based multilateral decision making if and when geoengineering’s day arrives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have simplified dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on the dispersal capacity of a species, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of the future distribution of plant species. To quantify the discrepancies between simulations accounting for dispersal or not, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal, and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, the unlimited dispersal simplification did nevertheless provide good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analysis of the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century revealed that important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080–2100 period, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate predictions of future shifts in species diversity in response to global change are critical if useful conservation strategies are to be developed. The most widely used prediction method is to model individual species niches from point observations and project these models forward using future climate scenarios. The resulting changes in individual ranges are then summed to predict diversity changes; multiple models can be combined to produce ensemble forecasts. Predictions based on environment-richness regressions are rarer. However, richness regression models, based on macroecological diversity theory, have a long track record of making reliable spatial predictions of diversity patterns. If these empirical theories capture true functional relationships between environment and diversity, then they should make consistent predictions through time as well as space and could complement individual species-based predictions. Here, we use climate change throughout the 20th century to directly test the ability of these different approaches to predict shifts of Canadian butterfly diversity. We found that all approaches performed reasonably well, but the most accurate predictions were made using the single best richness-environment regression model, after accounting for the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Spatially trained regression models based on macroecological theory accurately predict diversity shifts for large species assemblages. Global changes provide pseudo-experimental tests of those macroecological theories that can then generate robust predictions of future conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the planetary crisis of climate change or global warming. It states that this issue arouses a variety of responses in individuals, groups, and governments, ranging from denial, disconnect, and indifference to a spirit of engagement and activism of varying kinds and degrees. Moreover, some of the responses on this issue which includes Alan Weisman's best-selling book "The World Without Us" that suggests a thought experiment as a way of experiencing the present are discussed and analyzed.

Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long-term studies. Here, using counts of waders ( Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largest-scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the ‘weighted centroids’ of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year-to-year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With growing worldwide concern about global climate change, this article asks two critical questions: What reduction in vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the USA with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?; and What reduction in greenhouse gas emissions would accompany such a reduction in VMT? Based on four different planning literatures, the answer to the first question appears to be a 20-40% reduction in VMT for each increment of new development. The answer to the second question is a 7-10% reduction in total transport carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2050 under a plausible set of assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  The aquifer of the Chaouia Coast, Morocco constitutes an example of groundwater resources subjected to intensive and uncontrolled withdrawals in a semi-arid region. The analysis of the trends of precipitation and piezometric levels of the Chaouia coastal aquifer, with the use of moving averages, emphasized the impact of the climate on the groundwater resources of the system. The results showed that the periods 1977–1993 and 1996–2000 are characterized by a deficit in precipitation, although the precipitation increased slightly during the periods 1973–1977 and 1993–1996. Numerical modeling of the Chaouia aquifer showed that the groundwater resources of this system are less sensitive to the variations in precipitation. Severe degradation of the resource is related to intensive pumping during the periods of drought, which has forced abandonment of wells due to seawater intrusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) The main objectives of this study are the spatial and temporal analysis of annual 24-hour extreme precipitation amounts for different return periods, and (2) the interannual variability of the frequency of month-to-month maximum rainfall using harmonic analysis. Long time series data from 110 well-scattered rain gauges are analysed using extreme values theory and harmonic analysis techniques. The results indicate that the Jenkinson solution is more appropriate than the linear Gumbel solution for the extreme value law. The maximum expected values of 180–200 mm are observed along the southern coasts of the Greek peninsula and in the islands close to the Turkish coast, as well as in the north–west parts of the country. The harmonic analysis showed that the highest percentage of variance for rainfall extremes explained by the first harmonic (PVR(1)) appears over the southern and south-eastern parts of Greece in association with the greatest values of the amplitude of this harmonic, therefore explaining more than 90% of the variation of the frequency of maximum annual 24-hour rainfall amounts. In contrast, for regions north of 38° N and especially mountainous regions, more harmonics (3–5) are necessary to describe the parameter under investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation division and climate shift in China were analysed using daily precipitation data from 486 stations for the period 1960–2000. A modified hierarchical clustering method was used to divide China into sub-regions that have a coherent annual cycle, interannual evolutions and long-term trends. A division with 20 grouping areas can well describe the anomalous regional features seasonally, and a division with 40 grouping areas can reach a relatively stable level, theoretically for the annual and summer precipitation in mainland China. Rapid changes or interdecadal transition points of the regional precipitation series are detected by a multiple timescale t-test method. For mean annual precipitation, the interdecadal shift from a low to a high level is found to occur around 1987 in the Xinjiang region and around 1983 in Northeast China. The transition points of increasing summer rainfall in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the lower Yangtze River are centred closely about 1979. Changes in the double-decadal precipitation are also detected for the two periods of 1961–1980 and 1981–2000. An increasing trend in annual precipitation is mainly found in the lower Yangtze River valley, the Xinjiang region, and Northeast China. Decreasing annual precipitation is mainly situated from the middle Yangtze River to the Yellow River. In summer and winter, the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies shows two pairs of contrasting shifts with negative departures in North China and southern coastal China, while positive departures are found in the middle and lower Yangtze River valley and Northeast China. This pattern of regional precipitation shift in China is associated with southerly monsoon flow in eastern China and westerly flow in northwestern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic conservation planning provides a structured, target-driven approach to ensuring the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. However, reviews of how well the steps of such a planning process are applied in different regions are scant; some steps may be implemented although there is no formal systematic conservation planning process taking place. Here we conduct such a review for Europe. Taking in turn the six recognized steps of systematic conservation planning, for this region: (i) The availability of data on biodiversity remains a significant constraint on conservation planning because, although species occurrences have often been better mapped in Europe than elsewhere, there is a continuing mismatch between the spatial resolution at which data coverage is adequate and that of habitat fragmentation. (ii) Although there are important legal frameworks for conservation planning, explicit quantitative goals for the representation and persistence of biodiversity are largely lacking. (iii) Assessment of the effectiveness of existing protected area systems is patchy and rather ill developed, with a substantial gulf between the work being conducted in more academic and policy-oriented arenas. (iv) Nonetheless, particularly through the Natura 2000 process, there has been an extraordinary program to select additional protected areas. (v) Although it has taken longer than originally envisaged, this program is resulting in a substantial expansion of the protected area system. (vi) There are significant concerns over the extent to which existing protected area systems can maintain their biodiversity values, particularly given the small size of many of these areas and likely impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses formidable challenge to the development of livestock sector in India. The anticipated rise in temperature between 2.3 and 4.8°C over the entire country together with increased precipitation resulting from climate change is likely to aggravate the heat stress in dairy animals, adversely affecting their productive and reproductive performance, and hence reducing the total area where high yielding dairy cattle can be economically reared. Given the vulnerability of India to rise in sea level, the impact of increased intensity of extreme events on the livestock sector would be large and devastating for the low-income rural areas. The predicted negative impact of climate change on Indian agriculture would also adversely affect livestock production by aggravating the feed and fodder shortages. The livestock sector which will be a sufferer of climate change is itself a large source of methane emissions, an important greenhouse gas. In India, although the emission rate per animal is much lower than the developed countries, due to vast livestock population the total annual methane emissions are about 9-10 Tg from enteric fermentation and animal wastes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal variability of the 200–850-hPa vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is examined for a period of 46 yr. This work extends and updates past studies by considering a longer data record as well as a tropospheric-deep measure of vertical wind shear. Composite fields are constructed to illustrate the spatial pattern of the large-scale circulation associated with the mean and extreme cases of vertical shear within the tropical Atlantic. The contemporaneous relationship of vertical shear with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Sahel precipitation are also examined. While the ENSO–shear correlation appears to have slightly strengthened during the past decade, the Sahel–shear correlation has become significantly degraded. A combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the zonal and meridional components of the vertical shear reveals interannual and multidecadal modes. The leading EOF exhibits mainly interannual variability and is highly correlated with ENSO. The second EOF is associated with a multidecadal temporal evolution and is correlated with Sahel precipitation. Both EOFs correlate at the same level with tropical cyclones in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that spatially explicit baseline measure of historic, current and future wildfire ignition expectations is required to monitor and understand changes in fire occurrence, the distribution of which climate change is anticipated to modify. Using spatial-temporal patterns of fire in Canada, this article present a method to identify baseline expectations and ignition trends between 1980 and 2006.