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Background: Previous epidemiologic studies have reported famine exposure during early life association with overweight or obesity in adulthood, but a consistent perspective has not been established to date. Purpose: To determine, by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis, whether exposure to famine could increase body mass index (BMI) in adult or not, and assess the association between famine exposure and the risk of overweight or obesity. Methods: Published articles were systematically searched (until August, 2017) from PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure. Initially, comparing differences in BMI between exposed and non-exposed groups that weight mean difference (WMD) were used. Subsequently, the effect of famine exposure on overweight or obesity risk, which pooled relative risks (RRs), odds ratios (ORs) or hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. Result: Twenty studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Compared with non-exposed group, famine exposure group significantly increased the risk of overweight (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04–1.16) and obesity (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05–1.24). Sensitivity analyses revealed no significant change in the famine exposure and BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity study when any one study was excluded. Subgroup analyses showed that age, gender, exposure type, study type, continent, famine cause and paper publication date were associated with BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity. Meta-regression analyses suggested that continent, famine cause could partially explain heterogeneity for famine exposure and BMI studies. Conclusion: The systematic review and meta-analysis indicates that famine exposure during early life may increase BMI, the risk of overweight and obesity, especially for female, fetal famine exposure or subject age less than 50. Furthermore, famine exposure group the risk of overweight and obesity in cross-sectional studies, Asian studies, famine cause by natural disaster or paper published from 2015 to the present studies are higher than that of non-exposed group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Custom bus routes need to be optimized to meet the needs of a customized bus for personalized trips of different passengers. This paper introduced a customized bus routing problem in which trips for each depot are given, and each bus stop has a fixed time window within which trips should be completed. Treating a trip as a virtual stop was the first consideration in solving the school bus routing problem (SBRP). Then, the mixed load custom bus routing model was established with a time window that satisfies its requirement and the result were solved by Cplex software. Finally, a simple network diagram with three depots, four pickup stops, and five delivery stops was structured to verify the correctness of the model, and based on the actual example, the result is that all the buses ran 124.42 kilometers, the sum of kilometers was 10.35 kilometers less than before. The paths and departure times of the different busses that were provided by the model were evaluated to meet the needs of the given conditions, thus providing valuable information for actual work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the heavy exploitation of holothurians over the last few decades, it is necessary to implement fishing regulations aimed at reversing this situation. Holothurians require specific regulations that take into account their biology and ecology. Their behavior to group and form patches as a strategy for feeding, defense and reproduction, makes them vulnerable to overfishing. The higher the population density, the higher the catchability coefficient, and because they are sedentary organisms, the catchability does not change significantly until the density is very low. Hence, the stock assessment of holothurians can be improved by analyzing their spatial distribution. This paper proposes a stock assessment technique that considers the spatial distribution pattern of the sea cucumber Isostichopus badionotus from Yucatan, Mexico. A bioeconomic spatial model was developed to explain the interactions between fishing effort allocation, quasi-profits and the population in the short term. Because of the high price of the species and the low production costs, artisanal fishers preferred to maximize short-term quasi-profits, rather than the long-term benefits they could gain with low fishing mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land tenure and tenure security are among the most important factors determining the viability and success of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiatives. The premise of the present paper is that territorial conflicts lead to forest loss and compromise the successful implementation of REDD+. Within this context, the main objectives of this paper are to (i) document, relying on participatory methods, the extent to which land conflicts drive deforestation and (ii) reflect on the legal context of REDD+ examining if, from an Indigenous perspective, it offers tools to resolve such conflicts. We used the Upper Bayano Watershed in eastern Panama as a case study of complex land tenure dynamics, and their effects on forest conservation in the context of REDD+. Combining a range of participatory methods including participatory mapping and forest carbon stock assessment, we estimated the consequences of land invasions on forest carbon stocks. Our analysis shows that invasions of Indigenous territories amounted to 27.6% of the total deforestation for the period of 2001–2014. The situation is of paramount concern in the Embera territory of Majé where 95.4% of total deforestation was caused by colonist invaders. Using and validating the maps made freely available by the Global Forest Change initiative of the University of Maryland, we then developed a reference level for the watershed and carried out a back of the envelop estimation of likely REDD+ revenue, showing its potential to bring much needed income to Indigenous communities striving to protect their forest estate. Our analysis of current legislation in Panama highlights confusion and important legal voids and emphasizes the strong links between land tenure, carbon ownership, and territorial invasions. The options and shortcoming of implementing REDD+ in Indigenous territories is discussed in the conclusion taking our legal review into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite elimination efforts, the number of Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae) infected individuals who develop leprosy, is still substantial. Solid evidence exists that individuals living in close proximity to patients are at increased risk to develop leprosy. Early diagnosis of leprosy in endemic areas requires field-friendly tests that identify individuals at risk of developing the disease before clinical manifestation. Such assays will simultaneously contribute to reduction of current diagnostic delay as well as transmission. Antibody (Ab) levels directed against the M.leprae-specific phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) represents a surrogate marker for bacterial load. However, it is insufficiently defined whether anti-PGL-I antibodies can be utilized as prognostic biomarkers for disease in contacts. Particularly, in Bangladesh, where paucibacillary (PB) patients form the majority of leprosy cases, anti-PGL-I serology seems an inadequate method for leprosy screening in contacts as a directive for prophylactic treatment. Methods: Between 2002 and 2009, fingerstick blood from leprosy patients’ contacts without clinical signs of disease from a field-trial in Bangladesh was collected on filter paper at three time points covering six years of follow-up per person. Analysis of anti-PGL-I Ab levels for 25 contacts who developed leprosy during follow-up and 199 contacts who were not diagnosed with leprosy, was performed by ELISA after elution of bloodspots from filter paper. Results: Anti-PGL-I Ab levels at intake did not significantly differ between contacts who developed leprosy during the study and those who remained free of disease. Moreover, anti-PGL-I serology was not prognostic in this population as no significant correlation was identified between anti-PGL-I Ab levels at intake and the onset of leprosy. Conclusion: In this highly endemic population in Bangladesh, no association was observed between anti-PGL-I Ab levels and onset of disease, urging the need for an extended, more specific biomarker signature for early detection of leprosy in this area. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A closer association has been found between the microRNA-146a rs2910164 polymorphism and the risk of head and neck carcinoma in some molecular epidemiological studies. Recently two meta-analyses were performed to explore the relationship between miRNA-146a polymorphisms and the susceptibility of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN); however, they yielded conflicting results in susceptibility regarding ethnic variations. Hence, the present study was performed to explain the relationship between the miRNA-146a rs2910164 polymorphism and the risk of SCCHN development of Chinese patients. We retrieved databases and screened eligible papers up to March 10, 2017 and then we extracted the essential data. The subgroup analyses were also performed based on the tumor site, region, and genotyping means. Crude odds ratios (OR) at 95% confidence intervals (CI) were chosen to describe the strength of the association. As a result, 6 publications were included in our study which involved 8 independent case-control studies. A significant association was found between miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphisms and the risk of SCCHN in Chinese patients according to the overall data [CC+CG vs. GG: OR = 1.13; 95%CI = 1.00–1.29; CC vs. GG: OR = 1.19; 95%CI = 1.03–1.38]. According to the subgroup analysis based on tumor site, the risk of cancer was significantly increased among laryngeal cancer (dominant model: OR = 1.76, 95%CI = 1.26~2.46, P = 0.001; homozygote model: OR = 1.83, 95%CI = 1.25~2.67, P = 0.002) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (homozygote model: OR = 1.41, 95%CI = 1.05~1.90, P = 0.022). In summary, variant alleles of miR-146a rs2910164 alleles may have an association with the increased risk of SCCHN in Chinese patients, and these associations differed based on tumor site. Further studies including a larger sample size will be necessary to clarify these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The decade following the Regional Strategic Framework for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination in 2005 has shown compelling progress in the reduction of VL burden in the Indian subcontinent. The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), hosted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other stakeholders, has coordinated and financed research for the development of new innovative tools and strategies to support the regional VL elimination initiative. This paper describes the process of the TDR’s engagement and contribution to this initiative. Methodology/principal findings: Multiple databases were searched to identify 152 scientific papers and reports with WHO funding or authorship affiliation around the following 3 framework strategies: detection of new cases, morbidity reduction, and prevention of infection. TDR has played a critical role in the evaluation and subsequent use of the 39-aminoacid–recombinant kinesin antigen (rK39) rapid diagnostic test (RDT) as a confirmatory test for VL in the national program. TDR has supported the clinical research and development of miltefosine and single-dose liposomal amphotericin B as a first-line treatment against VL. TDR has engaged with in-country researchers, national programme managers, and partners to generate evidence-based interventions for early detection and treatment of VL patients. TDR evaluated the quality, community acceptance, and cost effectiveness of indoor residual spraying, insecticide-treated bed nets, insecticide-impregnated durable wall linings, insecticidal paint, and environmental management as tools for integrated vector management in reducing sandfly density. Conclusions/significance: TDR’s engagement with country policy makers, scientists, and clinicians in the development of effective diagnosis, treatment, case detection, and vector control represents an important example of TDR’s stewardship toward the elimination of VL in the Indian subcontinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In terms of public health, childhood vaccination programs have benefits that far outweigh risks. However, some parents decide not to vaccinate their children. This paper explores the ways in which such parents talked about the perceived risks and benefits incurred by vaccinating (or not vaccinating) their children. Between 2013–2016 we undertook 29 in-depth interviews with non-vaccinating and/or ‘vaccine hesitant’ parents in Australia. Interviews were conducted in an open and non-judgmental manner, akin to empathic neutrality. Interviews focused on parents talking about the factors that shaped their decisions not to (or partially) vaccinate their children. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using both inductive and deductive processes. The main themes focus on parental perceptions of: 1. their capacity to reason; 2. their rejection of Western medical epistemology; and 3. their participation in labour intensive parenting practices (which we term salutogenic parenting). Parents engaged in an ongoing search for information about how best to parent their children (capacity to reason), which for many led to questioning/distrust of traditional scientific knowledge (rejection of Western medical epistemology). Salutogenic parenting spontaneously arose in interviews, whereby parents practised health promoting activities which they saw as boosting the natural immunity of their children and protecting them from illness (reducing or negating the perceived need for vaccinations). Salutogenic parenting practices included breastfeeding, eating organic and/or home-grown food, cooking from scratch to reduce preservative consumption and reducing exposure to toxins. We interpret our data as a ‘logic of care’, which is seen by parents as internally consistent, logically inter-related and inter-dependent. Whilst not necessarily sharing the parents’ reasoning, we argue that an understanding of their attitudes towards health and well-being is imperative for any efforts to engage with their vaccine refusal at a policy level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have some kind of energy-system transformation either planned or ongoing for various reasons, such as to curb carbon emissions or to compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy. One important component of these transformations is the overall reduction in energy demand. It is generally acknowledged that the domestic sector represents a large share of total energy consumption in many countries. Increased energy efficiency is one factor that reduces energy demand, but behavioral approaches (known as “sufficiency”) and their respective interventions also play important roles. In this paper, we address citizens’ heterogeneity regarding both their current behaviors and their willingness to realize their sufficiency potentials—that is, to reduce their energy consumption through behavioral change. We collaborated with three Swiss cities for this study. A survey conducted in the three cities yielded thematic sets of energy-consumption behavior that various groups of participants rated differently. Using this data, we identified four groups of participants with different patterns of both current behaviors and sufficiency potentials. The paper discusses intervention types and addresses citizens’ heterogeneity and behaviors from a city-based perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigated two followership behaviors, followers’ active engagement and followers’ independent critical thinking, and their relationship with job satisfaction in a sample of nurses. In addition, the study also considered a number of control variables and classical job demands and job resources—workload and emotional dissonance for job demands, and meaningful work for job resources—which have an impact on well-being at work. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire was administered to 425 nurses in an Italian hospital, and a hierarchical multiple regression was used to test the hypotheses. In addition to the job demands and job resources considered, followers’ active engagement had a significant impact on job satisfaction. Moreover, it showed a significant linear and curvilinear relationship with the outcome variable. Followers’ independent critical thinking has a non significant relationship with job satisfaction, confirming the mixed results obtained in the past for this dimension. These findings bore out the importance of analyzing followers’ behaviors as potential resources that people can use on the job to increase their own well-being. Looking at followers not just as passive recipients but as active and proactive employees can also benefit the organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Daodi-herb is a part of Chinese culture, which has been naturally selected by traditional Chinese medicine clinical practice for many years. Sweet wormwood herb is a kind of Daodi-herb, and comes from Artemisia annua L. Artemisinin is a kind of effective antimalarial drug being extracted from A. annua. Because of artemisinin, Sweet wormwood herb earns a reputation. Based on the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China (PPRC), Sweet wormwood herb can be used to resolve summerheat-heat, and prevent malaria. Besides, it also has other medical efficacies. A. annua, a medicinal plant that is widely distributed in the world contains many kinds of chemical composition. Research has shown that compatibility of artemisinin, scopoletin, arteannuin B and arteannuic acid has antimalarial effect. Compatibility of scopoletin, arteannuin B and arteannuic acid is conducive to resolving summerheat-heat. Chemical constituents in A. annua vary significantly according to geographical locations. So, distribution of A. annua may play a key role in the characteristics of efficacy and chemical constituents of Sweet wormwood herb. It is of great significance to study this relationship. Objectives: We mainly analyzed the relationship between the chemical constituents (arteannuin B, artemisinin, artemisinic acid, and scopoletin) with special efficacy in A. annua that come from different provinces in china, and analyzed the relationship between chemical constituents and spatial distribution, in order to find out the relationship between efficacy, chemical constituents and distribution. Methods: A field survey was carried out to collect A. annua plant samples. A global positioning system (GPS) was used for obtaining geographical coordinates of sampling sites. Chemical constituents in A. annua were determined by liquid chromatography tandem an atmospheric pressure ionization-electrospray mass spectrometry. Relationship between chemical constituents including proportions, correlation analysis (CoA), principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (ClA) was displayed through Excel and R software version2.3.2(R), while the one between efficacy, chemical constituents and spatial distribution was presented through ArcGIS10.0, Excel and R software. Results: According to the results of CoA, arteannuin B content presented a strong positive correlation with artemisinic acid content (p = 0), and a strong negative correlation with artemisinin content (p = 0). Scopoletin content presented a strong positive correlation with artemisinin content (p = 0), and a strong negative correlation with artemisinic acid content (p = 0). According to the results of PCA, the first two principal components accounted for 81.57% of the total accumulation contribution rate. The contribution of the first principal component is about 45.12%, manly including arteannuin B and artemisinic acid. The contribution of the second principal component is 36.45% of the total, manly including artemisinin and scopoletin. According to the ClA by using the principal component scores, 19 provinces could be divided into two groups. In terms of provinces in group one, the proportions of artemisinin are all higher than 80%. Based on the results of PCA, ClA, percentages and scatter plot analysis, chemical types are defined as "QHYS type", "INT type" and "QHS type." Conclusion: As a conclusion, this paper shows the relationship between efficacy, chemical constituents and distribution. Sweet wormwood herb with high arteannuin B and artemisinic acid content, mainly distributes in northern China. Sweet wormwood herb with high artemisinin and scopoletin content has the medical function of preventing malaria, which mainly distributes in southern China. In this paper, it is proved that Sweet wormwood Daodi herb growing in particular geographic regions, has more significant therapeutical effect and higher chemical constituents compared with other same kind of CMM. And also, it has proved the old saying in China that Sweet wormwood Daodi herb which has been used to resolve summerheat-heat and prevent malaria, which distributed in central China. But in modern time, Daodi Sweet wormwood herb mainly has been used to extract artemisinin and prevent malaria, so the Daod-region has transferred to the southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The input-output table is comprehensive and detailed in describing the national economic system with complex economic relationships, which embodies information of supply and demand among industrial sectors. This paper aims to scale the degree of competition/collaboration on the global value chain from the perspective of econophysics. Global Industrial Strongest Relevant Network models were established by extracting the strongest and most immediate industrial relevance in the global economic system with inter-country input-output tables and then transformed into Global Industrial Resource Competition Network/Global Industrial Production Collaboration Network models embodying the competitive/collaborative relationships based on bibliographic coupling/co-citation approach. Three indicators well suited for these two kinds of weighted and non-directed networks with self-loops were introduced, including unit weight for competitive/collaborative power, disparity in the weight for competitive/collaborative amplitude and weighted clustering coefficient for competitive/collaborative intensity. Finally, these models and indicators were further applied to empirically analyze the function of sectors in the latest World Input-Output Database, to reveal inter-sector competitive/collaborative status during the economic globalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trust is regarded as a necessary component for the smooth running of society, although societal and political modernising processes have been linked to an increase in mistrust, potentially signalling social and economic problems. Fukuyama developed the notion of ‘high trust’ and ‘low trust’ societies, as a way of understanding trust within different societies. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test and extend Fukuyama’s theory utilising data on interpersonal trust in Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Australia and Thailand. This paper focuses on trust in family, neighbours, strangers, foreigners and people with a different religion. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were undertaken in 2009–10, with an overall sample of 6331. Analyses of differences in overall levels of trust between countries were undertaken using Chi square analyses. Multivariate binomial logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify socio-demographic predictors of trust in each country. Results: Our data indicate a tripartite trust model: ‘high trust’ in Australia and Hong Kong; ‘medium trust’ in Japan and Taiwan; and ‘low trust’ in South Korea and Thailand. Trust in family and neighbours were very high across all countries, although trust in people with a different religion, trust in strangers and trust in foreigners varied considerably between countries. The regression models found a consistent group of subpopulations with low trust across the countries: people on low incomes, younger people and people with poor self-rated health. The results were conflicting for gender: females had lower trust in Thailand and Hong Kong, although in Australia, males had lower trust in strangers, whereas females had lower trust in foreigners. Conclusion: This paper identifies high, medium and low trust societies, in addition to high and low trusting population subgroups. Our analyses extend the seminal work of Fukuyama, providing both corroboration and refutation for his theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the literature on recovery focuses on the economy, the physical environment and infrastructure at a macro level, which may ignore the personal experiences of affected individuals during recovery. This paper combines internal factors at a micro level and external factors at a macro level to model for understanding perception of recovery (PoR). This study focuses on areas devastated by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. With respect to three recovery-related aspects (house recovery condition (HRC), family recovery power (FRP) and reconstruction investment (RI)), structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied. It was found that the three aspects (FRP, HRC and RI) effectively explain how earthquake affected households perceive recovery. Internal factors associated with FRP contributed the most to favourable PoR, followed by external factors associated with HRC. Findings identified that for PoR the importance of active recovery within households outweighed an advantageous house recovery condition. At the same time, households trapped in unfavourable external conditions would invest more in housing recovery, which result in wealth accumulation and improved quality of life leading to a high level of PoR. In addition, schooling in households showed a negative effect on improving PoR. This research contributes to current debates around post-disaster permanent housing policy. It is implied that a one-size-fits-all policy in disaster recovery may not be effective and more specific assistance should be provided to those people in need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Staff education is considered key to quality of early childhood education and care (ECEC) programs. However, findings about associations between staff education and children’s outcomes have been inconsistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of associations between ECEC staff education and child outcomes. Searches of Medline, PsycINFO, and ERIC, websites of large datasets and reference sections of all retrieved articles were conducted. Eligible studies provided a statistical link between staff education and child outcomes for preschool-aged children in ECEC programs. Titles, abstracts and paper reviews as well as all data extraction were conducted by two independent raters. Of the 823 studies reviewed for eligibility, 39 met our inclusion criteria. Research in this area is observational in nature and subject to the inherent biases of that research design. Results from our systematic review were hampered by heterogeneity in how staff education was defined, variability in whose education was measured and the child outcomes that were assessed. However, overall the qualitative summary indicates that associations between staff education and childhood outcomes are non-existent to very borderline positive. In our meta-analysis of more homogeneous studies we identified certain positive, albeit very weak, associations between staff education and children’s language outcomes (specifically, vocabulary and letter word identification) and no significant association with a mathematics outcome (WJ Applied Problems). Thus, our findings suggest that within the range of education levels found in the existing literature, education is not a key driver of child outcomes. However, since we only explored levels of education that were reported in the literature, our findings cannot be used to argue for lowering education standards in ECEC settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Target agents are peculiar oncological drugs which differ from the traditional therapies in their ability of recognizing specific molecules expressed by tumor cells and microenvironment. Thus, their toxicity is generally lower than that associated to chemotherapy, and they represent nowadays a new standard of care in a number of tumors. This paper deals with the relationship between economic costs and toxicity of target agents. At this aim, a cluster analysis-based exploration of the main features of a large collection of them is carried out, with a specific focus on the variables leading to the identification of their toxicity and related costs. The analysis of the toxicity is based on the Severe Adverse Events (SAE) and Discontinuation (D) rates of each target agent considering data published on PubMed from 1965 to 2016 in the phase II and III studies that have led to the approval of these drugs for cancer patients by US Food and Drug Administration. The construction of the dataset represents a key step of the research, and is grounded on the critical analysis of a wide set of clinical studies. In order to capture different evaluation strategies of the toxicity, clustering is performed according to three different criteria (including Voronoi tessellation). Our procedure allows us to identify 5 different groups of target agents pooled by similar SAE and D rates and, at the same time, 3 groups based on target agents’ costs for 1 month and for the median whole duration of therapy. Results highlight several specific regularities for toxicity and costs. This study present several limitations, being realized starting from clinical trials and not from individual patients’ data. However, a macroscopic perspective suggests that costs are rather heterogeneous, and they do not clearly follow the clustering based on SAE and D rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the cross-market effects of Brexit on the stock and bond markets of nine major countries in the world. By incorporating information theory, we introduce the time-varying impact weights based on symbolic transfer entropy to improve the traditional GARCH model. The empirical results show that under the influence of Brexit, flight-to-quality not only commonly occurs between the stocks and bonds of each country but also simultaneously occurs among different countries. We also find that the accuracy of the time-varying symbolic transfer entropy GARCH model proposed in this paper has been improved compared to the traditional GARCH model, which indicates that it has a certain practical application value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social skills training, performed by human trainers, is a well-established method for obtaining appropriate skills in social interaction. Previous work automated the process of social skills training by developing a dialogue system that teaches social communication skills through interaction with a computer avatar. Even though previous work that simulated social skills training only considered acoustic and linguistic information, human social skills trainers take into account visual and other non-verbal features. In this paper, we create and evaluate a social skills training system that closes this gap by considering the audiovisual features of the smiling ratio and the head pose (yaw and pitch). In addition, the previous system was only tested with graduate students; in this paper, we applied our system to children or young adults with autism spectrum disorders. For our experimental evaluation, we recruited 18 members from the general population and 10 people with autism spectrum disorders and gave them our proposed multimodal system to use. An experienced human social skills trainer rated the social skills of the users. We evaluated the system’s effectiveness by comparing pre- and post-training scores and identified significant improvement in their social skills using our proposed multimodal system. Computer-based social skills training is useful for people who experience social difficulties. Such a system can be used by teachers, therapists, and social skills trainers for rehabilitation and the supplemental use of human-based training anywhere and anytime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern cities are engines of production, innovation, and growth. However, urbanization also increases both local and global pollution from household consumption and firms’ production. Do emissions change proportionately to city size or does pollution tend to outpace or lag urbanization? Do emissions scale differently with population versus economic growth or are emissions, population, and economic growth inextricably linked? How are the scaling relationships between emissions, population, and economic growth affected by environmental regulation? This paper examines the link between urbanization, economic growth and pollution using data from Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States between 1999 and 2011. We find that the emissions of local air pollution in these MSAs scale according to a ¾ power law with both population size and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the monetary damages from these local emissions scale linearly with both population and GDP. Counties that have previously been out of attainment with the local air quality standards set by the Clean Air Act show an entirely different relationship: local emissions scale according to the square root of population, while the monetary damages from local air pollution follow a 2/3rds power law with population. Counties out of attainment are subject to more stringent emission controls; we argue based on this that enforcement of the Clean Air Act induces sublinear scaling between emissions, damages, and city size. In contrast, we find that metropolitan GDP scales super-linearly with population in all MSAs regardless of attainment status. Summarizing, our findings suggest that environmental policy limits the adverse effects of urbanization without interfering with the productivity benefits that manifest in cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Scientific collaboration is an important mechanism that enables the integration of the least developed countries into research activities. In the present study, we use the order of author signatures and addresses for correspondence in scientific publications as variables to analyze the interactions between countries of very high (VHHD), high (HHD), medium (MHD), and low human development (LHD). Methodology: We identified all documents published between 2011 and 2015 in journals included in the Science Citation Index-Expanded categories’ of Tropical Medicine, Infectious Diseases, Parasitology, and Pediatrics. We then classified the countries participating in the publications according to their Human Development Index (HDI), analyzing the international collaboration; positioning and influence of some countries over others in cooperative networks; their leadership; and the impact of the work based on the HDI and the type of collaboration. Results: We observed a high degree of international collaboration in all the areas analyzed, in the case of both LHD and MHD countries. We identified numerous cooperative links between VHHD countries and MHD/LHD countries, reflecting the fact that cooperative links are an important mechanism for integrating research activities into the latter. The countries with large emerging economies, such as Brazil and China stand out due to the dominance they exert in the collaborations established with the United States, the UK, and other European countries. The analysis of the leadership role of the countries, measured by the frequency of lead authorships, shows limited participation by MHD/LHD countries. This reduced participation among less developed countries is further accentuated by their limited presence in the addresses for correspondence. We observed significant statistical differences in the degree of citation according to the HDI of the participating countries. Conclusions: The order of signatures and the address for correspondence in scientific publications are bibliographic characteristics that facilitate a precise, in-depth analysis of cooperative practices and their associations with concepts like dominance or leadership. This is useful to monitor the existing balance in research participation in health research publications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of 2015, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization’s AFRO region had met Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Kenya was one of the countries selected for an in-depth case study due to its insufficient progress in reducing under-five mortality, with only a 28% reduction between 1990 and 2013. This paper presents indicators, national documents, and qualitative data describing the factors that have both facilitated and hindered Kenya’s efforts in reducing child mortality. Key barriers identified in the data were widespread socioeconomic and geographic inequities in access and utilization of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) care. To reduce these inequities, Kenya implemented three major policies/strategies during the study period: removal of user fees, the Kenya Essential Package for Health, and the Community Health Strategy. This paper uses qualitative data and a policy review to explore the early impacts of these efforts. The removal of user fees has been unevenly implemented as patients still face hidden expenses. The Kenya Essential Package for Health has enabled construction and/or expansion of healthcare facilities in many areas, but facilities struggle to provide Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC), neonatal care, and many essential medicines and commodities. The Community Health Strategy appears to have had the most impact, improving referrals from the community and provision of immunizations, malaria prevention, and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV. However, the Community Health Strategy is limited by resources and thus also unevenly implemented in many areas. Although insufficient progress was made pre-2015, with additional resources and further scale-up of new policies and strategies Kenya can make further progress in child survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, echo state network (ESN) has attracted a great deal of attention due to its high accuracy and efficient learning performance. Compared with the traditional random structure and classical sigmoid units, simple circle topology and leaky integrator neurons have more advantages on reservoir computing of ESN. In this paper, we propose a new model of ESN with both circle reservoir structure and leaky integrator units. By comparing the prediction capability on Mackey-Glass chaotic time series of four ESN models: classical ESN, circle ESN, traditional leaky integrator ESN, circle leaky integrator ESN, we find that our circle leaky integrator ESN shows significantly better performance than other ESNs with roughly 2 orders of magnitude reduction of the predictive error. Moreover, this model has stronger ability to approximate nonlinear dynamics and resist noise than conventional ESN and ESN with only simple circle structure or leaky integrator neurons. Our results show that the combination of circle topology and leaky integrator neurons can remarkably increase dynamical diversity and meanwhile decrease the correlation of reservoir states, which contribute to the significant improvement of computational performance of Echo state network on time series prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG) plays an important role in the pathogenesis and maintenance of essential hypertension (EH). It has been suggested that polymorphisms of PPARG are associated with the risk of EH. However, findings to date remain controversial. To elucidate the associations between the PPARG Pro12Ala and C161T polymorphisms and EH risk, a meta-analysis was carried out. Methods: A comprehensive literature search of PubMed, Embase, CNKI (Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure), VIP and Wanfang databases was conducted. The pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to estimate the size of the effect using the random-effects model. At the same time, the pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) with 95% CI was used for the meta-analysis of the PPARG Pro12Ala polymorphism and blood pressure. Results: Finally, Fifteen papers (seventeen studies) including 4,151 cases and 4,997 controls to evaluate the association of the PPARGPro12Ala polymorphism and EH risk, were included in this study. Overall, the results suggested that Ala allele was associated with the decreased EH risk (for allelic model, OR = 0.757, 95%CI: 0.624–0.918, P = 0.005; for dominant model, OR = 0.771, 95%CI: 0.627–0.946, P = 0.013). The subgroup analysis stratified by ethnicity showed that the significant association between the PPARG Pro12Ala polymorphism and EH was only detected in the Asian subgroup. There was no difference in blood pressure values between Ala carriers and non-carriers. For the C161T polymorphism, only 5 studies comprising 1,118 cases and 1,357 controls met the inclusion criteria. The overall results showed that the PPARG C161T polymorphism was not associated with the risk of EH. But in the subgroup analysis, we found that the PPARG C161T polymorphism significantly associated with the risk of EH in the Asian subgroup (for allelic model, OR = 0.719, 95% CI: 0.537–0.963, P = 0.027; for dominant model, OR = 0.653, 95% CI: 0.439–0.972, P = 0.036). Conclusion: Our meta-analysis suggested that the PPARG polymorphisms might be associated with the risk of EH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of rapid rail transit system is analyzed using tools of complex network for the first time. We evaluated the effectiveness of the system in Beijing quantitatively from different perspectives, including descriptive statistics analysis, bridging property, centrality property, ability of connecting different part of the system and ability of disease spreading. The results showed that the public transport of Beijing does benefit from the rapid rail transit lines, and the benefit of different regions from RRTS is gradually decreased from the north to the south. The paper concluded with some policy suggestions regarding how to promote the system. This study offered significant insight that can help understand the public transportation better. The methodology can be easily applied to analyze other urban public systems, such as electricity grid, water system, to develop more livable cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods: The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results: A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions: Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Type 2 diabetes is impacting millions of people globally; however, many future cases can be prevented through lifestyle changes and interventions. Primary care is an important setting for diabetes prevention, for at-risk populations, because it is a patient’s primary point of contact with the health care system and professionals can provide lifestyle counselling and support, as well as monitoring health outcomes. These are all essential elements for diabetes prevention for at-risk adults. Aim: To understand the factors related to the delivery and uptake of type 2 diabetes prevention interventions within primary care in higher income countries. Methods: For this narrative systematic review, we combined qualitative and quantitative studies of diabetes prevention within a primary care setting for patients at-risk of developing the condition. We used an iterative approach for evidence collection, which included using several databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Pysch info, BNI, SSCI, CINAHL, ASSIA), where we combined diabetes terms with primary care terms. Narrative and thematic synthesis were utilised to identify the prominent themes emerging from the data. Results: A database of 6646 records was screened by the research team, and 18 papers were included. Three major themes were identified in this review. The first theme of context and setting of diabetes progression includes the risk and progression of diabetes, primary care as a setting, and where the responsibility for change is thought to lie. This review also found mixed views on the value of preventative services within primary care. The second theme focused on the various patient factors associated with diabetes prevention such as a patient’s motivation to modify their current lifestyle, perceptions and knowledge (or lack thereof) of the impacts of diabetes, lack of follow-up in healthcare settings, and trust in healthcare professionals. The third theme was centred on professional factors impacting on diabetes prevention which included workload, time constraints, resources, self-efficacy and knowledge as well as professionals’ perception of patient motivations towards change. Conclusion: This review explored the factors influencing diabetes prevention in primary care, and identified the context of prevention, as well as patient and professional factors related to preventative services being offered in primary care. This systematic review complements previous reviews of real-world settings by exploring the significant factors in prevention, and the findings are relevant to academics, policymakers, patients and practitioners interested in understanding the factors associated with the delivery and uptake of diabetes prevention interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared “downstream, agentic” approaches targeting individuals with “upstream, structural” policy-based population strategies. Methods: We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from “downstream”: dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most “upstream” regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components. Results: After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals. Conclusions: Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and “upstream” population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than “downstream”, individually focussed interventions. This ‘effectiveness hierarchy’ might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method for classifying the ancestry of Brazilian surnames based on historical sources. The information obtained forms the basis for applying fuzzy matching and machine learning classification algorithms to more than 46 million workers in 5 categories: Iberian, Italian, Japanese, German and East European. The vast majority (96.7%) of the single surnames were identified using a fuzzy matching and the rest using a method proposed by Cavnar and Trenkle (1994). A comparison of the results of the procedures with data on foreigners in the 1920 Census and with the geographic distribution of non-Iberian surnames underscores the accuracy of the procedure. The study shows that surname ancestry is associated with significant differences in wages and schooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is much variability in the expression of sickle cell disease (SCD) and recent works suggest that environmental and social factors may also influence this variability. This paper aims to use geographic information systems technology to examine the association between socio-environmental exposures and health outcomes in all persons who have attended or currently attend the Sickle Cell Unit in Jamaica. Rural patients presented for clinical care at older ages and had less annual visits to clinic. Persons travelled relatively long distances to seek SCD care and those travelling longer had less health maintenance visits. Urban patients had a higher prevalence of significant pain crises (69.4% vs. 55.8%, p value<0.001) and respiratory events (21.2% vs. 14%, p value<0.001). Prevalence of leg ulcers did not vary between rural and urban patients but was higher in males than in females. Females also had lower odds of having respiratory events but there was no sex difference in history of painful crises. Persons with more severe genotypes lived in higher poverty and travelled longer for healthcare services. Persons in areas with higher annual rainfall, higher mean temperatures and living farther from factories had less painful crises and respiratory events. The paper highlights a need for better access to healthcare services for Jamaicans with SCD especially in rural areas of the island. It also reports interesting associations between environmental climatic exposures and health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: Proper management of fecal sludge has significant positive health and environmental externalities. Most research on managing onsite sanitation so far either simulates the costs of, or the welfare effects from, managing sludge in situ in pit latrines. Thus, designing management strategies for onsite rural sanitation is challenging, because the actual costs of transporting sludge for treatment, and sources for financing these transport costs, are not well understood. Methods: In this paper we calculate the actual cost of sludge management from onsite latrines, and identify the contributions that latrine owners are willing to make to finance the costs. A spreadsheet-based model is used to identify a cost-effective transport option, and to calculate the cost per household. Then a double-bound contingent valuation method is used to elicit from pit-latrine owners their willingness-to-pay to have sludge transported away. This methodology is employed for the case of a rural subdistrict in Bangladesh called Bhaluka, a unit of administration at which sludge management services are being piloted by the Government of Bangladesh. Results: The typical sludge accumulation rate in Bhaluka is calculated at 0.11 liters/person/day and a typical latrine will need to be emptied approximately once every 3 to 4 years. The costs of emptying and transport are high; approximately USD 13 per emptying event (circa 14% of average monthly income); household contributions could cover around 47% of this cost. However, if costs were spread over time, the service would cost USD 4 per year per household, or USD 0.31 per month per household—comparable to current expenditures of rural households on telecommunications. Conclusion: This is one of few research papers that brings the costs of waste management together with financing of that cost, to provide evidence for an implementable solution. This framework can be used to identify cost effective sludge management options and private contributions towards that cost in other (context-specific) administrative areas where onsite sanitation is widespread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of managing research data has been emphasized by the government, funding agencies, and scholarly communities. Increased access to research data increases the impact and efficiency of scientific activities and funding. Thus, many research institutions have established or plan to establish research data curation services as part of their Institutional Repositories (IRs). However, in order to design effective research data curation services in IRs, and to build active research data providers and user communities around those IRs, it is essential to study current data curation practices and provide rich descriptions of the sociotechnical factors and relationships shaping those practices. Based on 13 interviews with 15 IR staff members from 13 large research universities in the United States, this paper provides a rich, qualitative description of research data curation and use practices in IRs. In particular, the paper identifies data curation and use activities in IRs, as well as their structures, roles played, skills needed, contradictions and problems present, solutions sought, and workarounds applied. The paper can inform the development of best practice guides, infrastructure and service templates, as well as education in research data curation in Library and Information Science (LIS) schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labeling theory suggests that criminal justice interventions amplify offending behavior. Theories of intergenerational transmission suggest why children of convicted parents have a higher risk of offending. This paper combines these two perspectives and investigates whether labeling effects might be stronger for children of convicted parents. We first investigated labeling effects within the individual: we examined the impact of a conviction between ages 19–26 on self-reported offending behavior between 27–32 while controlling for self-reported behavior between 15–18. Our results show that a conviction predicted someone’s later self-reported offending behavior, even when previous offending behavior was taken into account. Second, we investigated whether having a convicted parent influenced this association. When we added this interaction to the analysis, a labeling effect was only visible among people with convicted parents. This supports the idea of cumulative disadvantage: Labeling seems stronger for people who are already in a disadvantaged situation having a convicted parent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an adaptive random search approach to address a short term generation scheduling with network constraints, which determines the startup and shutdown schedules of thermal units over a given planning horizon. In this model, we consider the transmission network through capacity limits and line losses. The mathematical model is stated in the form of a Mixed Integer Non Linear Problem with binary variables. The proposed heuristic is a population-based method that generates a set of new potential solutions via a random search strategy. The random search is based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The main key of the proposed method is that the noise level of the random search is adaptively controlled in order to exploring and exploiting the entire search space. In order to improve the solutions, we consider coupling a local search into random search process. Several test systems are presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed heuristic. We use a commercial optimizer to compare the quality of the solutions provided by the proposed method. The solution of the proposed algorithm showed a significant reduction in computational effort with respect to the full-scale outer approximation commercial solver. Numerical results show the potential and robustness of our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies have revealed that increased body mass index (BMI) is associated with decreased mortality among hemodialysis patients. However, few studies have dealt with the association between BMI and mortality among patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD) and even fewer studies have focused on the Asian PD patients. The reported studies were often non-conclusive and some even yielded contradictory results. This paper, to our best knowledge, registers the first attempt to systematically review the current literature and summarize new results on the association between BMI and mortality among the Asian PD population. Method: A systematic literature review was performed in Medline and EMBASE to identify relevant cohort studies on all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality stratified by BMI categories tailored to Asians among the Asian PD population. We meta-analyzed individual results based on a random effect model, strictly complying with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis. Results: The paper reviews seven cohort studies with a total of 3,610 Asian PD patients. Obese group (BMI = 25–29.9 kg/m2) was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95%CI [1.07–1.98]; p = 0.02) and CVD mortality (HR = 2.01, 95%CI [1.14–3.54]; p = 0.02), compared to the normal group (BMI = 18.5–22.9 kg/m2). The underweight group (BMI<18.5kg/m2) was also associated with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 2.11, 95%CI [1.46–3.07]; p<0.001). No significant associations between BMI with all-cause mortality were found among the overweight group (23–24.9 kg/m2) (HR = 1.00, 95%CI [0.76–1.32]; p = 0.9). The association between BMI and CVD mortality risk among the underweight and overweight groups was found nonsignificant (p = 0.5 and 0.6 respectively). Conclusion: Obesity is associated with increased mortality in Asian PD patients. The study indicates a “V-shaped” trend in the association between BMI and mortality in these patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do institutions grow? Despite nearly a century of scientific effort, there remains little consensus on this topic. This paper offers a new approach that focuses on energy consumption. A systematic relation exists between institution size and energy consumption per capita: as energy consumption increases, institutions become larger. I hypothesize that this relation results from the interplay between technological scale and human biological limitations. I also show how a simple stochastic model can be used to link energy consumption with firm dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several publicly financed health insurance schemes have been launched in India with the aim of providing universalizing health coverage (UHC). In this paper, we report the impact of publicly financed health insurance schemes on health service utilization, out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure, financial risk protection and health status. Empirical research studies focussing on the impact or evaluation of publicly financed health insurance schemes in India were searched on PubMed, Google scholar, Ovid, Scopus, Embase and relevant websites. The studies were selected based on two stage screening PRISMA guidelines in which two researchers independently assessed the suitability and quality of the studies. The studies included in the review were divided into two groups i.e., with and without a comparison group. To assess the impact on utilization, OOP expenditure and health indicators, only the studies with a comparison group were reviewed. Out of 1265 articles screened after initial search, 43 studies were found eligible and reviewed in full text, finally yielding 14 studies which had a comparator group in their evaluation design. All the studies (n-7) focussing on utilization showed a positive effect in terms of increase in the consumption of health services with introduction of health insurance. About 70% studies (n-5) studies with a strong design and assessing financial risk protection showed no impact in reduction of OOP expenditures, while remaining 30% of evaluations (n-2), which particularly evaluated state sponsored health insurance schemes, reported a decline in OOP expenditure among the enrolled households. One study which evaluated impact on health outcome showed reduction in mortality among enrolled as compared to non-enrolled households, from conditions covered by the insurance scheme. While utilization of healthcare did improve among those enrolled in the scheme, there is no clear evidence yet to suggest that these have resulted in reduced OOP expenditures or higher financial risk protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, collected by EUROSTAT, are plagued with shortcomings. In this paper, I have carried out a forensic analysis on a 2003–2010 dataset of indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, that European Union member states self-reported to EUROSTAT, and on the basis of which, their efforts were evaluated. I used Benford’s law to detect any anomalous statistical patterns and found that statistical anomalies were also consistent with strategic manipulation. According to Benford’s law, if we pick a random sample of numbers representing natural processes, and look at the distribution of the first digits of these numbers, we see that, contrary to popular belief, digit 1 occurs most often, then digit 2, and so on, with digit 9 occurring in less than 5% of the sample. Without prior knowledge of Benford’s law, since people are not intuitively good at creating truly random numbers, deviations thereof can capture strategic alterations. In order to eliminate other sources of deviation, I have compared deviations in situations where incentives and opportunities for manipulation existed and in situations where they did not. While my results are not a conclusive proof of strategic manipulation, they signal that countries that faced incentives and opportunities to misinform the international community about their efforts to combat money laundering may have manipulated these indicators. Finally, my analysis points to the high potential for disruption that the manipulation of national statistics has, and calls for the acknowledgment that strategic manipulation can be an unintended consequence of the international community’s pressure on countries to put combatting money laundering on the top of their national agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Suboptimal prenatal and early postnatal growths are associated with obesity in later life, but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature that reports on the longitudinal association of (i) birth size or (ii) infant growth with later (i) energy intake, (ii) eating behaviors, (iii) physical activity or (iv) sedentary behavior in humans. Methods: A comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and The Cochrane Library was conducted to identify relevant publications. We appraised the methodological quality of the studies and synthesized the extracted data through a best-evidence synthesis. Results: Data from 41 publications were included. The quality of the studies was high in three papers, moderate in 11 and low in the large majority (n = 27) of papers appraised. Our best-evidence synthesis indicates that there is no evidence for an association of birth weight with later energy intake, eating behavior, physical activity or sedentary behavior. We found moderate evidence for an association of extreme birth weights (at both ends of the spectrum) with lower physical activity levels at a later age. Evidence for the association of infant growth with energy balance-related behavior was generally insufficient. Conclusions: We conclude that current evidence does not support an association of early-life growth with energy balance-related behaviors in later life, except for an association of extreme birth weights with later physical activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of global value chains (GVCs) characterized by the so-called “outsourcing”, “fragmentation production”, and “trade in tasks” has been considered one of the most important phenomena for the 21st century trade. GVCs also can play a decisive role in trade policy making. However, due to the increasing complexity and sophistication of international production networks, especially in the equipment manufacturing industry, conventional trade statistics and the corresponding trade indicators may give us a distorted picture of trade. This paper applies various network analysis tools to the new GVC accounting system proposed by Koopman et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2013) in which gross exports can be decomposed into value-added terms through various routes along GVCs. This helps to divide the equipment manufacturing-related GVCs into some sub-networks with clear visualization. The empirical results of this paper significantly improve our understanding of the topology of equipment manufacturing-related GVCs as well as the interdependency of countries in these GVCs that is generally invisible from the traditional trade statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While basic access to clean water is critical, another important issue is the affordability of water access for people around the globe. Prior international work has highlighted that a large proportion of consumers could not afford water if priced at full cost recovery levels. Given growing concern about affordability issues due to rising water rates, and a comparative lack of work on affordability in the developed world, as compared to the developing world, more work is needed in developed countries to understand the extent of this issue in terms of the number of households and persons impacted. To address this need, this paper assesses potential affordability issues for households in the United States using the U.S. EPA’s 4.5% affordability criteria for combined water and wastewater services. Analytical results from this paper highlight high-risk and at-risk households for water poverty or unaffordable water services. Many of these households are clustered in pockets of water poverty within counties, which is a concern for individual utility providers servicing a large proportion of customers with a financial inability to pay for water services. Results also highlight that while water rates remain comparatively affordable for many U.S. households, this trend will not continue in the future. If water rates rise at projected amounts over the next five years, conservative projections estimate that the percentage of U.S. households who will find water bills unaffordable could triple from 11.9% to 35.6%. This is a concern due to the cascading economic impacts associated with widespread affordability issues; these issues mean that utility providers could have fewer customers over which to spread the large fixed costs of water service. Unaffordable water bills also impact customers for whom water services are affordable via higher water rates to recover the costs of services that go unpaid by lower income households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the critical engine parts such as the crankshaft, the fatigue limit load is one of the most important parameters involved the design and manufacture stage. In previous engineering applications, this parameter has always been obtained by experiment, which is expensive and time-consuming. This paper, based on the theory of critical distance (TCD), first analyzes the stress distribution of a crankshaft under its limit load. In this way, the length of the critical distance can be obtained. Then a certain load is applied to a new crankshaft made of the same material and the effective stress is calculated based on the critical distance above. Finally, the fatigue limit load of the new crankshaft can be obtained by comparing the effective stress and the fatigue limit of the material. Comparison between the prediction and the corresponding experimental data shows that the traditional TCD may result in bigger errors on some occasions, while the modified TCD proposed in this paper can provide a more satisfactory result in terms of the fatigue limit for a quick engineering prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals call for the end of poverty and the equitable provision of healthcare. These goals are often at odds, however: health seeking can lead to catastrophic spending, an outcome for which cancer patients and the poor in resource-limited settings are at particularly high risk. How various health policies affect the additional aims of financial wellbeing and equity is poorly understood. This paper evaluates the health, financial, and equity impacts of governmental and charitable policies for surgical oncology in a resource-limited setting. Methods: Three charitable platforms for surgical oncology delivery in Uganda were compared to six governmental policies aimed at improving healthcare access. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis using an agent-based simulation model examined the numbers of lives saved, catastrophic expenditure averted, impoverishment averted, costs, and the distribution of benefits across the wealth spectrum. Findings: Of the nine policies and platforms evaluated, two were able to provide simultaneous health and financial benefits efficiently and equitably: mobile surgical units and governmental policies that simultaneously address surgical scaleup, the cost of surgery, and the cost of transportation. Policies that only remove user fees are dominated, as is the commonly employed short-term “surgical mission trip”. These results are robust to scenario and sensitivity analyses. Interpretation: The most common platforms for increasing access to surgical care appear unable to provide health and financial risk protection equitably. On the other hand, mobile surgical units, to date an underutilized delivery platform, are able to deliver surgical oncology in a manner that meets sustainable development goals by improving health, financial solvency, and equity. These platforms compare favorably with policies that holistically address surgical delivery and should be considered as countries strengthen health systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes is a chronic disease commonly managed by family physicians, with the most prevalent complication being cardiovascular disease (CVD). Clinical practice guidelines have been developed to support clinicians in the care of diabetic patients. We conducted a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a printed educational toolkit aimed at improving CVD management in diabetes in primary care, and found no effect, and indeed, the possibility of some harm. We conducted a qualitative evaluation to study the strategy for guideline implementation employed in this trial, and to understand its effects. This paper focuses solely on the qualitative findings, as the RCT’s quantitative results have already been reported elsewhere. Methods and Findings: All family practices in the province of Ontario had been randomized to receive the educational toolkit by mail, in either the summer of 2009 (intervention arm) or the spring of 2010 (control arm).A subset of 80 family physicians (representing approximately 10% of the practices randomized and approached, with records on 1,592 randomly selected patients with diabetes at high risk for CVD) then took part in a chart audit and reflective feedback exercise related to their own practice in comparison to the guideline recommendations. They were asked to complete two forms (one pre- and one post-audit) in order to understand their awareness of the guidelines pre-trial, their expectations regarding their individual performance pre-audit, and their reflections on their audit results. In addition, individual interviews with thirteen other family physicians were conducted. Textual data from interview transcripts and written commentary from the pre- and post-audit forms underwent qualitative descriptive analysis to identify common themes and patterns. Analysis revealed four main themes: impressions of the toolkit, awareness was not the issue, ‘it’s not me it’s my patients’, and chart audit as a more effective intervention than the toolkit. Participants saw neither the toolkit content nor its dissemination strategy to be effective, indicating they perceived themselves to be aware of the guidelines pre-trial. However, their accounts also indicated that they may be struggling to prioritize CVD management in the midst of competing demands for their attention. Upon receiving their chart audit results, many participants expressed surprise that they had not performed better. They reported that the audit results would be an important motivator for behaviour change. Conclusions: The qualitative findings outlined in this paper offer important insights into why the intervention was not effective. They also demonstrate that physicians have unperceived needs relative to CVD management and that the chart audit served to identify shortcomings in their practice of which they had been hitherto unaware. The findings also indicate that new methods of intervention development and implementation should be explored. This is important given the high prevalence of diabetes worldwide; appropriate CVD management is critical to addressing the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exaggerated or simplistic news is often blamed for adversely influencing public health. However, recent findings suggested many exaggerations were already present in university press releases, which scientists approve. Surprisingly, these exaggerations were not associated with more news coverage. Here we test whether these two controversial results also arise in press releases from prominent science and medical journals. We then investigate the influence of mitigating caveats in press releases, to test assumptions that caveats harm news interest or are ignored. Methods and Findings: Using quantitative content analysis, we analyzed press releases (N = 534) on biomedical and health-related science issued by leading peer-reviewed journals. We similarly analysed the associated peer-reviewed papers (N = 534) and news stories (N = 582). Main outcome measures were advice to readers and causal statements drawn from correlational research. Exaggerations in press releases predicted exaggerations in news (odds ratios 2.4 and 10.9, 95% CIs 1.3 to 4.5 and 3.9 to 30.1) but were not associated with increased news coverage, consistent with previous findings. Combining datasets from universities and journals (996 press releases, 1250 news), we found that when caveats appeared in press releases there was no reduction in journalistic uptake, but there was a clear increase in caveats in news (odds ratios 9.6 and 9.5 for caveats for advice and causal claims, CIs 4.1 to 24.3 and 6.0 to 15.2). The main study limitation is its retrospective correlational nature. Conclusions: For health and science news directly inspired by press releases, the main source of both exaggerations and caveats appears to be the press release itself. However we find no evidence that exaggerations increase, or caveats decrease, the likelihood of news coverage. These findings should be encouraging for press officers and scientists who wish to minimise exaggeration and include caveats in their press releases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of maternal autonomy on child schooling outcomes in Ethiopia using a nationally representative Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey for 2011. The empirical strategy uses a Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression model to estimate years of schooling. An ordered probit model is also estimated to examine age grade distortion using a trichotomous dependent variable that captures three states of child schooling. The large sample size and the range of questions available in this dataset allow us to explore the influence of individual and household level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The analysis finds statistically significant effects of maternal autonomy variables on child schooling in Ethiopia. The roles of maternal autonomy and other household-level factors on child schooling are important issues in Ethiopia, where health and education outcomes are poor for large segments of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Allied health workforce recruitment and retention in remote areas is a global problem. Using case studies from the Australian allied health workforce, this paper adds new information by combining personality trait information with a detailed understanding of how the cases construe the demands of remote work, which may be useful in addressing this problem. Methods: Four cases (two urban, two remote) are presented from a mixed methods study (n = 562), which used (1) the Temperament and Character Inventory to investigate personality traits of allied health professionals; and (2) repertory grid interviews to reveal quantitatively and qualitatively how the cases construed their Ideal work role compared with their Current and a Remote role. Cases also self-assessed their fit (‘suited’ or ‘not suited’) with remote. Findings: Differences in the way cases construed their fit with remote work was related to prior experience. However all were satisfied with their work, perceiving their Current role as similar to their Ideal. All saw remote work as requiring generalist expertise and a reliance on relationships. Personality traits, especially Novelty Seeking and Harm Avoidance, fit with how allied health professionals perceived their role. Conclusions: The combination of two distinct lines of investigation, illustrates what more can be revealed about allied health professional’s career choices by taking into account the fit or lack of fit between their personality tendencies, their construing of remote work and their life circumstances. Understanding the combined influence of perceptions and traits on an individual toward or away from remote work may enhance recruitment and retention internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence in the United States of large-scale “megaregions” centered on major metropolitan areas is a phenomenon often taken for granted in both scholarly studies and popular accounts of contemporary economic geography. This paper uses a data set of more than 4,000,000 commuter flows as the basis for an empirical approach to the identification of such megaregions. We compare a method which uses a visual heuristic for understanding areal aggregation to a method which uses a computational partitioning algorithm, and we reflect upon the strengths and limitations of both. We discuss how choices about input parameters and scale of analysis can lead to different results, and stress the importance of comparing computational results with “common sense” interpretations of geographic coherence. The results provide a new perspective on the functional economic geography of the United States from a megaregion perspective, and shed light on the old geographic problem of the division of space into areal units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of ICT and Web technologies, a large an amount of information is becoming available and this is producing, in some instances, a condition of information overload. Under these conditions, it is difficult for a person to locate and access useful information for making decisions. To address this problem, there are information filtering systems, such as the personalized recommendation system (PRS) considered in this paper, that assist a person in identifying possible products or services of interest based on his/her preferences. Among available approaches, collaborative Filtering (CF) is one of the most widely used recommendation techniques. However, CF has some limitations, e.g., the relatively simple similarity calculation, cold start problem, etc. In this context, this paper presents a new regression model based on the support vector machine (SVM) classification and an improved PSO (IPSO) for the development of an electronic movie PRS. In its implementation, a SVM classification model is first established to obtain a preliminary movie recommendation list based on which a SVM regression model is applied to predict movies’ ratings. The proposed PRS not only considers the movie’s content information but also integrates the users’ demographic and behavioral information to better capture the users’ interests and preferences. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified by a series of experiments based on the MovieLens benchmark data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]