1. Global prediction for mpox epidemic.
- Author
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Zhang, Li, Huang, Jianping, Yan, Wei, Zhao, Yingjie, Wang, Danfeng, and Chen, Bin
- Subjects
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MONKEYPOX , *EPIDEMICS , *ATMOSPHERIC models , *PREDICTION models , *FORECASTING - Abstract
The mpox epidemic had spread worldwide and become an epidemic of international concern. Before the emergence of targeted vaccines and specific drugs, it is necessary to numerically simulate and predict the epidemic. In order to better understand and grasp its transmission situation, and take some countermeasures accordingly when necessary, we predicted and simulated mpox transmission, vaccination and control scenarios using model developed for COVID-19 predictions. The results show that the prediction model can also achieve good results in predicting the mpox epidemic based on modified SEIR model. The total number of people infected with mpox on Dec 31, 2022 reached 83878, while the prediction of the model was 96456 with a relative error of 15%. The United States, Brazil, Spain, France, the United Kingdom and Germany are six countries with serve mpox epidemic. The predictions of their epidemic are 30543, 11191, 7447, 5945, 5606 and 4291 cases respectively, with an average relative error of 20%. If 30% of the population is vaccinated using a vaccine that is 78% effective, the number of infected people will drop by 29%. This shows that the system can be practically applied to the prediction of mpox epidemic and provide corresponding decision-making reference. • We constructed a general epidemic model to simulate and predict mpox outbreaks, and achieve good results. • The SEIQRDP model is constructed by improving the traditional SEIR model, which is closer to the reality. • Introduce the idea of inversion parameters of climate models to obtain parameters that are closer to the real situation. • The idea of parameterization scheme of climate models is introduced to describe different situations in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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