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This paper is the second in a two-part series on the concavity-convexity of the distribution system security region (DSSR). In Part I, the concave-convex characteristics and mechanism of DSSR are revealed by observing many case grids. In Part II (this paper), the concave-convex principle of DSSR is revealed through mathematical deduction. Firstly, the relevant concepts of sub-regions are proposed, and a DSSR model based on the union of sub-regions is developed. Secondly, the concave-convex principle of DSSR is proposed. The proposed criteria show that the security region of a distribution system with a single load transfer path for each feeder is convex, while that with multiple load transfer paths for some feeders can be concave or convex. Thirdly, the proposed criteria are deduced mathematically. Fourthly, based on the criteria, a method is proposed to judge whether a DSSR is concave or convex. Fifthly, the proposed criteria and method are verified through several cases, and the DSSR concavity-convexity of real distribution systems in China is also analyzed. Finally, the applications of DSSR concavity-convexity are illustrated. This work lays a mathematical foundation for the research of the topological properties of DSSR and is also useful for the application of DSSR. • The DSSR mathematical model based on the union of sub-regions is developed. • Three criteria are proposed and proved, revealing the concave-convex principle of DSSR. • A judgment method for DSSR concavity-convexity is proposed based on these criteria. • The DSSR concavity-convexity of real distribution systems in China is analyzed. • The application values of DSSR concavity-convexity are demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel divide-and-conquer model for CPI predictionwith the existing compilation method of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China. Historical national CPI time series is preliminary divided into eight sub-indexes includingfood, articles for smoking and drinking, clothing, household facilities, articles and maintenance services, health care and personal articles, transportation and communication, recreation, education and culture articles and services, and residence. Three models including back propagation neural network (BPNN) model, grey forecasting model (GM (1, 1)) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model are established to predict each sub-index, respectively.Then the best predicting result among the three models’ for each sub-index is identified. To further improve the performance, special modification in predicting method is done to sub-CPIs whose forecasting results are not satisfying enough. After improvement and error adjustment, we get the advanced predicting results of the sub-CPIs.Eventually, the best predicting results of each sub-index are integrated to form the forecasting results of the national CPI. Empirical analysis demonstrates that the accuracy and stability of the introduced method in this paper is better than many commonly adopted forecasting methods, which indicates the proposed method is an effective and alternative one for national CPI prediction in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: With the urban rail transit network in Beijing becoming gradually intensive, the passenger flow organization also develops towards the type of the network mode. This paper analyzes the development trend of the urban rail transit network in Beijing. On the basis of a reasonable classification of emergencies occurred in urban rail transit, this paper puts forward the passenger organization model of rail transit network under emergency conditions, and then set a certain train accident of Beijing Metro Line 1 as an example to illustrate the practical application of the passenger emergency organization mode. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In order to study the evolution patterns of two-oriented society coordinated development, with the guidance of Scientific Development View, this paper proposed the research thinking of the evolution pattern of two-oriented society coordinated development, established the MSP evolution patterns structure model of two-oriented society coordinated development and created the model of comprehensive index, coordination degree, development degree and coordinated development index. It also made an empirical analysis of the evolution patterns of two-oriented society coordinated development in all regions of China and worked out the MSP evolution map of two-oriented society coordinated development in each region. This paper improved the theories of coordinated development two-oriented society and embraces great importance of the regional two-oriented society''s construction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As a tool, Comprehensive Evaluation based on fuzzy matter-element model provides a way to calculate risks. This paper introduces the common theory of fuzzy matter-element model evaluation, puts up general procedures of risk evaluation based on fuzzy matter-element model evaluation, and establishes model of fuzzy matter-element model risk evaluation as well as comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy matter-element model. This paper, through a real project, analyses risks exist in the project of Caiyuanba Bridge in Chongqing from the view of proprietor with fuzzy matter-element model evaluation applied, and the results verifies the superiority and feasibility of the method and its good efficiency in project risk management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper focus on pricing methodology research about resources contain of non-use value. Reasonable and accurate assessment of resources plays an important role in the management of coastal zone. But valuation of resources that contain of non-use value is still unsatisfactory on its validity and reliability. This paper extends the study of pricing model, which based on Subordinate Function of resource price, to a forward step research to analyze of how the resources are priced by respondents. And there are three steps to reach this aim. A survey about shoal wetland price per year is conducted to citizens of Xiamen firstly, then the pricing results of respondent are disassembled to a series weights of factors through the resolution of fuzzy relationship equations. Finally, causality between characters of respondent and weights of factor are analyzed by means of multivariate correlation analysis. The study indicates that the “Knowledge about the resource” is the most influential character of respondent that impact on a resource pricing, while “Income” is the second of influential. And “Distance from the location of resource” has the least impact on the pricing. However, another finding is that none of the 5 characters are critical to a resource pricing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Snow cover is a common and relatively stable land cover condition in winter for cold north regions in China. Snow cover has significant effects on water and heat transfers in frozen soil; it needs to be considered in the study of frozen soil water–heat coupled movements. On the basis of previous research results and physical process analysis of water and heat movements in snow cover and soil, a snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movements model is established in this paper. The numerical simulation was conducted by using a finite difference method. The results indicate that the simulated values have a similar trend to the measured values and the numerical simulation had big relative errors. However, the average absolute errors of the total and liquid moisture content in frozen soil were all less than 4%, and that of the frozen soil temperature was 1.37 °C. The errors of the numerical simulation were still within the acceptable range. Thus, the snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movement model constructed in this paper is rational. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Using Cobb-Douglas production function to establish agricultural production function of Anhui province agriculture, this paper measures each input factor''s influence on total agricultural output, and calculates the contribution rate of agricultural technology progress; meanwhile, this paper analyzes the existing problems and solutions for the problems [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Distinguished from former literature which focuses on the static or balanced analysis, this paper established the timevarying parameters model based on state space model to find the dynamic relationship between China''s energy consumption and economic growth. After applying Chow test, unit root test and cointegration test, this paper estimated the parameters of state space model with Kalman Filter Algorithm, then found and analyzed their internal regularity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The suitability of the project delivery system (PDS) selected for a project greatly influences the efficiency to conduct a project. It is not an easy task to select an appropriate PDS as a large amount of ambiguous information exists. The paper aims to develop a PDS selection model to help owners to make a decision. The similar projects are identified through the similarity metrics between the target project to be predicted and those in the database. In addition, some of the indicator values are examined and modified through DEA-BND model, and then they are trained by ANN model to predict an appropriate PDS for the target project. A survey was conducted by postal questionnaire to empirically validate the reliability of the model in China. The indicator system for the selection of an appropriate PDS is established. Through the comparison of results predicted by different models, it is found that the PDS selection model developed in this paper can predict PDS precisely, and shows higher reliability than the ANN model. A PDS selection model is developed by inputting project-specific data, which proves to be more accurate and less dependent on experts’ judgment. Its practical application will benefit the owner’s decision making in the selection of the PDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: According to the problem that in what scope can subway engineering influence the prices of peripheral real estate, this paper summarized the problems in similar research presented, and put forward that the influence is taken by factors of person, and the influence can be studied by the probability of choosing subway. Different from other similar research, based on the analysis of the factors which can influence people choose subway or not, this paper constructs the logistic model. Testing the model by using the research data of Beijing, this paper get the list on which we know in what scope can subway engineering influence the surrounding real estate prices by adjusting the logistic model variable X4. Finally, discussed the model applicability and in different cities to application. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, the premature failure of the integral droppers in high speed railway catenary in China was investigated. Series of microscopic characterization and analysis were conducted to identify the root causes of the unexpected failure. By numerically simulating the existing crimping behavior, distribution of the contact stress in the dropper was obtained. It was found that there was stress concentration at the dropper sliced end, which became the primary reason for the permanent distortion and damage on the droppers, and consequently resulted in the untimely final fracture with bending fretting fatigue acting. Through the failure analysis and numerical simulation, a scheme of the improvements in measuring the existing crimping was brought up. Meanwhile, a plan was also put forward to change the current crimping model and reduce the depth of indentation of clamp tube. Static tensile tests and bending fretting fatigue tests were carried out to evaluate the optional plans, which would help extend the service life of integral dropper in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the theoretical foundations and development of a multidimensional, water-focused, thematic indicator of rural poverty: The Water, Economy, Investment and Learning Assessment Indicator (WEILAI). The WEILAI approach was specifically designed for application in rural China, to support poverty alleviation project planning, monitoring and evaluation, as well as targeting and prioritization. WEILAI builds primarily on the basic needs framework of poverty alleviation, and on the methodological structure of the Water Poverty Index, to provide a proxy measure of an area's poverty by assessing eight key poverty sectors, with a strong focus on the components of water-poverty. The WEILAI approach was piloted and implemented in 534 households in China's mountainous southwest. This paper describes the indicator construction, weighting schemes, methodology, field sites, and statistical validation of the results. In addition, we discuss the results, feedback from in-country project staff, and the likely utility of the tool for project planning, monitoring and evaluation support. The paper concludes with a discussion of WEILAI's overall utility and ongoing development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the fluctuations of the Chinese Stock Index, and we study the statistical properties of HSI, DJI, IXIC and SP500 by comparison. According to the theory of artificial neural networks, a stochastic time effective function is introduced in the forecasting model of the indices in the present paper, which gives an improved neural network – the stochastic time effective neural network model. In this model, a promising data mining technique in machine learning has been proposed to uncover the predictive relationships of numerous financial and economic variables. We suppose that the investors decide their investment positions by analyzing the historical data on the stock market, and the historical data are given weights depending on their time, in detail, the nearer the time of the historical data is to the present, the stronger impact the data have on the predictive model, and we also introduce the Brownian motion in order to make the model have the effect of random movement while maintaining the original trend. In the last part of the paper, we test the forecasting performance of the model by using different volatility parameters and we show some results of the analysis for the fluctuations of the global stock indices using the model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An extended Gebhart–Block model for large space buildings is proposed in this paper, which is used to predict the vertical temperature distribution of hybrid ventilation. Natural ventilation coupled with air-conditioning is described with a mathematical model. The indoor thermal environment formed by the air-conditioning and the natural ventilation can also be conducted for the potential analysis and optimal use of the natural ventilation. Experiments were carried out in an atrium building in Shanghai Research Institute of Building Sciences. This paper describes aforementioned model, and it is found that the calculation results implying this model agree well with the measurement data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In China''s energy cost calculation, environment compensation and energy utilization rate are neglected, which causes problems of high energy consumption, high pollution and low efficiency. By establishing multi-oligarchs Cournot model for energy enterprises, the paper figure out reaction function and equilibrium price when Nash is in equilibrium. On this basis, taxation factor and energy consumption incentive factor are introduced, and the changes in price, output, and profit are re-analyzed when Nash is in equilibrium. Finally, the paper comes out that a moderate taxation can compensate environment negative externality and raise energy price to its real price. In the meantime, by increasing incentive strategy, enterprise can reduce energy consumption and advance the development of energy sustainable utilization technology. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a nonlinear piecewise smooth dynamical system of the trajectory of deviated wells according to engineering background. An optimal control model is established and the necessary conditions for optimality are proved via maximum principle. The optimal control problem is solved by a revised Hooke–Jeeves algorithm. The uniform design technique has been incorporated into the revised Hooke–Jeeves algorithm to handle the multimodal function. Computer simulation is used for this paper, and the numerical example illustrates the validity and efficiency of the algorithm. The procedure demonstrates its advantages in practical applications in Liaohe Oil Field. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: With the start up of West–East Natural Gas Transmission Project, the construction of natural gas-pipeline will enter on a new era in China. The development tendency will be towards large-diameter, high-pressure and long-distance for natural gas-pipelines. Correspondingly, the life cycle cost of natural gas-pipeline networks is increasing gradually. The mainline system is a vital part of natural gas network systems. The investment required for the mainline system is enormous, usually accounting for 80% of the total investment for this system. In general, the investment required for a gas-pipeline depends on its operating parameters. Therefore, based on the characteristics of gas networks, optimization for investment becomes indispensable to gas networks design. A comprehensive and optimal mathematic model of a gas networks system is established in this paper which considers all the factors influencing the total investment of a gas networks system (e.g. pipe diameter, thickness, pressure, length, compression ratio, etc). From the standpoint of the characteristics of a model comprising both continuous and discrete variables, a new methodology, rank-optimization, is presented. On the basis of this model, a simple and visual high-pressure networks optimization program has been compiled. Furthermore, the developed optimization program has been applied to a practical project and the effects of operating parameters on the total investment have been analyzed. The simulation model in this paper is shown to be an effective method to solve optimization on mainline system in high-pressure gas networks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With the rapid development of the sharing economy, outsourcing logistics operations to third party logistics has become an efficient way of reducing costs in freight transportation. It can be modeled as a variant of the open vehicle routing problem (OVRP), where the vehicles do not return to the depot after servicing customers. However, very few papers have studied fuel consumption in the context of third party logistics. In this work, the mathematical model of the green open vehicle routing problem with time windows (GOVRPTW) was described based on the comprehensive modal emission model (CMEM). A hybrid tabu search algorithm involving several neighborhood search strategies was designed to solve this problem. Computational experiments were performed on realistic instances based on the real road conditions of Beijing, China. The effect of empty kilometers is analyzed through comparing different cost components. Compared with closed routes, the open routes reduced the total cost by 20% with both the fuel emissions costs and the CO 2 emissions cost down by nearly 30%. For the experiments with congested nodes, the fuel and emissions cost rose by 12.3%, and the driver cost even increased by 31.3%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a public building in China, this paper built a benchmark model and analyzed the influence of main thermal performance of building envelopes on energy consumption in different climatic regions by EnergyPlus. The results showed that in the order of hot summer and warm winter region, hot summer and cold winter region, cold region, severe cold region, the energy-saving effect was getting better and better with the increase of roof insulation, exterior wall insulation and exterior window insulation. If SHGC of exterior window was reduced, building energy consumption decreased in hot summer and warm winter region, hot summer and cold winter region, but it increased in cold region and severe cold region. For hot summer and warm winter region, hot summer and cold winter region, the factors that affected energy consumption was as follows: SHGC > K win > K wal > K ro, for cold region and severe cold region, it was as follows: K win > K wal > SHGC > K ro . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, Beijing rural “coal to electricity” is more and more attention. Among them, the air source heat pump as a clean energy is vigorously promoted, but due to of its low water supply temperature. So, for what kind of terminal equipment need to be researched. In this paper, the two terminal equipment of PE-X pipe are adopted as the low-temperature floor radiant heating and four-post 760 cast iron radiator in the bedroom of a Beijing farmhouse are simulated. The performance of two kinds of terminal equipment is analyzed from four aspects: indoor temperature field distribution, indoor air cleanliness, indoor air velocity distribution and energy consumption. The commercial CFD software was used to simulate the characteristics of two heating terminal equipment. The simulation results show that PE-X pipes as the low-temperature floor radiant heating is better than that the four-post 760 cast iron radiator heating, it has good heating effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building heating energy consumption accounts for about 19.12% of total energy consumption in China in 2014. With the development of building energy-saving technology, renewable energy heating systems, such as GSHP (ground source heat pump), solar energy, air source heat pump, show high energy efficiency and low emissions, which are gradually replacing traditional heating systems. However, due to the restriction of existing productivity and environment conditions, the capital investment of such renewable heating systems is often much higher than traditional ones. As a result, the advantage of renewable heating system is hard to be realized, since its application is highly limited by economic factors. In this paper, traditional thermal-economical evaluation method is modified and improved for feasibility analysis of renewable heating system. Moreover, an illustrative example, which combines solar heating and air-source heat pump together, in Sichuan is given to show the preliminary application of the proposed method. The results indicate that the modified thermal-economical evaluation method can assess the feasibility of renewable heating systems more comprehensively, since it takes the indirect economic effects caused by energy saving and environment protection into consideration, which can balance the huge capital investment of such systems. For the studied case, solar collector combined with air-source heat pump is more preferable than traditional systems. This work is important for feasibility analysis and design optimization of building heating system with renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatiotemporal urbanization is one of the key questions related to sustainable urbanization in the drylands of northern China (DNC). However, urban expansion in the DNC has not been quantified and assessed effectively due to a lack of reliable data and methods. In this paper, we investigate urban expansion in the DNC at multiple scales, ranging from the whole region to four dryland subtypes, and six urban agglomerations in the DNC from 1992 to 2015. We also simulate urban expansion in the DNC from 2015 to 2050 by coupling the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Despite of the uncertainty in the research, our findings provide useful insight into the past and the future urban expansion in the DNC. The results indicate that the urban land in the DNC expanded rapidly from 4110 km 2 in 1992 to 20,969 km 2 in 2015. Furthermore, the urban land in the DNC will continue to expand from 20,969 km 2 to 22,987–36,622 km 2 by 2040, with an annual growth of 80.72–403.48 km 2 under all SSPs. Thus, it is suggested that effective measures are urgently needed to facilitate sustainable urban development in the DNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve the purpose of sealing water between adjacent jacked pipes in construction of long-distance and large-section tunnel, an innovative method called Freeze-Sealing Pipe Roof (FSPR) was applied to the Gongbei tunnel, which is a key part of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge in China. Since the pre-constructed jacking pipes provides great convenience for flexible placement of freezing tubes inside, it is crucial to study the temperature field of different freezing states. This paper first established a new mathematical model considering radial offset of jacking pipe according to the practical engineering, and then the analytical solution to steady-state temperature field was also derived. Moreover, temperature distribution of four typical cross-sections were analyzed to evaluate the freezing effect on different paths. Results show that the analytical results are in good agreement with the numerical results, and the quasi-double-circle freezing model can be well applied to the practical problem of radial offset. Soil between steel pipes will be lowered to a sufficiently low temperature and form a fairly reliable water-sealing curtain. By designing the radial offset between freezing tubes in solid and hollow pipes, the freezing effect can be better ensured. The conclusions have important guiding significance for design and construction of FSPR method in future projects. • Temperature field of a special double-circle-piped freezing model is solved analytically. • The boundary separation property of the harmonic equation is used to solve the heat conduction problem. • The accuracy of complex analytical expressions is verified by numerical simulation. • Water sealing effect of FSPR method considering radial offset of jacking pipes is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waste sorting is an imperative and significant issue in China, of which sorted-waste collection and transportation are indispensable parts. Despite its vital yet practical significance, few studies research mathematical models or algorithms of waste collection and transportation from the perspective of waste sorting. To address this issue, we extend a novel transportation model for the waste management system, namely, capacitated location routing problem with queuing time (CLRPQT) and design a cross-entropy and simulated-annealing based hyper-heuristic algorithm (CE-SAHH) for it. The main idea of this paper is three-fold: (1) As a particular property of this problem, source nodes cannot but need to be served by more than one vehicle that causes queuing time between a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which is novel in terms of the proposed model; (2) For the methodological contribution, a character encoding scheme, new decoding procedure, and local search strategy are designed embedded in the proposed method; (3) An integration of simulated annealing strategy and the cross-entropy-based hyper-heuristic algorithm is developed to overcome the combinatorial optimization problem with a more complex solution of this study. Finally, the results and analysis of three numeric experiments on benchmark datasets, new instances of CLRPQT, and simulation data in Shanghai, China, verify the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model and method. • A novel model with interactional routes for sorted-waste transportation is proposed. • A cross-entropy-based hyper-heuristic algorithm is proposed and performs well. • The novel model and method based on sorted waste enrich the waste management system. • Real-life data is used to verify the method and some managerial insights are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the recent decades, China’s building energy consumption has been growing rapidly. Also the fuel mix has been changing quickly with more natural gas & electricity and less coal being used. Meanwhile, the technologies used in building sector are improving in efficiency. In this paper, the impact of technical progress and the use of renewable energy in building sector are analyzed. The energy saving and emission reduction potential of building sector are also measured. China TIMES model is used to model the future energy consumption and carbon emissions in building sector. The modelling results indicate that building energy consumption is expected to grow to around 41.6EJ in the reference scenario in 2050. The energy saving potential in 2050 can be up to 4EJ due to the improvement of both building insulation (envelop) and energy use technologies. Renewable energy used in buildings can be a great contributor to the carbon mitigation in buildings. China’s building sector can reach a relatively low-carbon future with more low- and non-carbon fuels consumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the studies on dynamic distributed transmission and distribution system and traditional heating distribution system in aspects of mathematical model, structure of pipe network, hydraulic stability of the dynamic distributed system and regulation and control strategy; comparatively analyses the characteristics and difference between each kind of system and summaries the progress and deficiency of existing researches. It is remarkable that pumps should be equipped with various frequency devices to achieve the optimal energy saving effects and regulating efficiency. Many achievements have been realized in each aspect, but there are still disadvantages in the dynamic distributed heating system. All the deficiencies will be the research directions about the dynamic distributed heating system in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to alleviate the limitation of traditional statistical models utilizing only structured data, this paper proposes a new fore- casting method, which is able to take full advantage of domain knowledge and avoid many kinds of biases and inconsistencies inherent in subjective judgments. The new method is applied to forecasting the container throughput of Guangzhou Port, one of the most important ports of China. In order to test the effectiveness of the new method, we compare its performance with that of the frequently-used ARIMAX model. The results show that the new method significantly outperforms the ARIMAX model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: During the fast developing process of the Chinese economy, China consumes lots of energy and environmental pollution caused by energy consumption currently urgently needs solving. So, paying more attention to energy saving and emission reduction is very important. Therefore, to reasonably allocate resources and reduce emissions in China’s different regions has practical significance. So this paper firstly considers the model construction method for resource allocation considering undesirable outputs between different decision making units based on the DEA framework under the CRS and VRS assumption. We have proposed some resource allocation models as a multiple objective linear problem which considers the input reduction, desirable output reduction and undesirable output reduction. Then, to demonstrate the practical application of the resource allocation model, numerical examples are used to illustrate the approach. In addition, we explore the resource allocation problem of China’s regions in 2006–2010. The empirical results show that the resource allocation models dealing with undesirable outputs have effective configuration results, that is, the reduction proportion for desirable output is smaller than the reduction proportion for undesirable output. From the resource allocation results in China’s regions, we find that the eastern area has more emission reduction than the central and western areas corresponding to the same energy consumption reduction, and the energy and environmental policy should focus more on the central and western areas. All of these conclusions will give some policy recommendations on saving energy and reducing pollution emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To find the key impact factors of CO2 emissions to realize the carbon intensity target, this paper examined the impact factors of population, economic level, technology level, urbanization level, industrialization level, service level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree on the energy-related CO2 emissions in Guangdong Province, China from 1980 to 2010 using an extended STIRPAT model. We employed ridge regression to fit the extended STIRPAT model. Empirical results indicate that factors such as population, urbanization level, GDP per capita, industrialization level and service level, can cause an increase in CO2 emissions. However, technology level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree can lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions. The estimated elastic coefficients suggest that population is the most important impact factor of CO2 emissions. Industrialization level, urbanization level, energy consumption structure, service level and GDP per capita are also significant impact factors, but the other factors such as technology level and foreign trade degree are less important impact factors. Some policy recommendations are also given on how to mitigate the growth of CO2 emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Some forecasting models have been developed, each has its own application condition. The grey model is used for small sample forecasting, but until now there is no reasonable explanation for the reason why it is not used for large sample. Therefore, in this paper, matrix perturbation theory is employed to explain the reason. The results of practical numerical examples from previous works demonstrate that the small sample usually has more accuracy than the large sample when establishing grey model in theory. Furthermore, we used the grey model with small samples to analyse the trend of syphilis incidence in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Grey theory is one approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. Generally, the GM (1,1) and Discrete GM (1,1) models are two typical grey forecasting models in grey theory. However, there are two shortcomings in the above grey models respectively, i.e., the homogeneous-exponent simulative deviation in GM (1,1) model, and the unequal conversion between the original and white equations in DGM (1,1) model. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel Generalized GM (1,1) model termed GGM (1,1) model, based on GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) models, to overcome the above shortcomings. Then, we detailedly study four important properties in this new grey model. Four estimative approaches of stepwise ratio in GGM (1,1) model context is also covered. In the end, we simulate and forecast the fuel production in China during the period 2003–2010 using three GM (1,1) models. The empirical results show that GGM (1,1) model has higher simulative and predictive accuracy than GM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) models. This work contributes significantly to improve grey forecasting theory and proposes a optimized GM (1,1) model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A new model used to design the shape and dimension of salt cavern gas storage is proposed in the paper. In the new model, the cavern is divided into two parts, namely the lower and upper structures, to design. The concepts of slope instability and pressure arch are introduced into the shape design of the lower and upper structures respectively. Calculating models are established according to the concepts. Field salt cavern gas storage in China is simulated as examples, and its shape and dimension are proposed. The effects of gas pressure, friction angle and cohesion of rock salt on the cavern stability are discussed. Moreover, the volume convergence, displacement, plastic volume rate, safety factor, and effective strain are compared with that of three other existing shapes salt caverns to validate the performance of newly proposed cavern. The results show that the max. gas pressure determines the shape and dimension of cavern lower structure, while the min. gas pressure decides that of cavern upper structure. With the increase of friction angle and cohesion of rock salt, the stability of salt cavern is increased. The newly proposed salt cavern gas storage has more notable advantages than the existing shapes of salt cavern in volume convergence, displacement, plastic volume rate, safety factor, and effective strain under the same conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we present a process-based model to estimate the well-to-tank (WTT) costs of vehicle fuels (gasoline and diesel). The model breaks down the WTT process into four stages, i.e., crude oil sourcing (import and extraction), crude oil transportation, crude oil refining, and vehicle fuel transportation and distribution, which can provide high-resolution data for the WTT cost components. Using this model, we further develop an empirical study of China. The results obtained from the study indicate that the price of imported crude oil is the dominant factor affecting the WTT costs of vehicle fuels in China and that the cost of crude oil refining also has a relatively large influence. By comparing the costs with the prices of vehicle fuels under the volatile price of imported crude oil, we illustrate the unstable margin caused by China’s current pricing policy, which causes a distorted price signal and fiscal risks. The key findings derived from the empirical study reveal that the WTT cost is an essential guide for altering the vehicle fuel price with the aim of not only smoothing the impacts caused by the volatile price of crude oil price but also reflecting the correct oil price signal and reducing the fiscal risks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A dynamic evaporator model of air source heat pump (ASHP), considering the ratio of the latent heat to sensible heat of wet air, is presented to analyze the performance of ASHP under frosting. The performance parameters, such as the heating capacity, COP and the outlet temperature of compressor, are simulated with CYCLEPAD. Then a semi-empirical correlation that predicts frost accumulation on the air-side of fin-tube heat exchanger is developed with dimensionless analysis and also modified by a test conducted under cold-moist conditions in winter. In addition, eight influence factors are considered involving the ambient conditions and structures of heat exchanger, whose effects are analyzed as well. Among them, the equivalent diameter of air flow cross-section in fin-tube deq is especially proposed. Lastly, the relationships between the ratio, the performance parameters and the frost accumulation are discussed in this paper, followed by an evaluation of an optimal defrosting time interval to improve the ASHP’s energy efficiency and operational reliability at cold-moist conditions in central-south China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper uses nonparametric efficiency analysis technique to estimate the energy efficiency, potential emission reductions and marginal abatement costs of energy-related CO2 emissions in China. We employ a non-radial slacks-based data envelopment analysis (DEA) model for estimating the potential reductions and efficiency of CO2 emissions for China. The dual model of the slacks-based DEA model is then used to estimate the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions. An empirical study based on China’s panel data (2001–2010) is carried out and some policy implications are also discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Flood disasters are one of the most common and destructive natural hazards all over the world. In this paper, improved interior-outer-set model (IIOSM) based on information diffusion theory is introduced in detail to assess flood risk in an effort to obtain accurate analytical results that represent the actual situation. Then fuzzy α-cut technique is applied to calculate the fuzzy expected values under the possibility–probability distribution (PPD) calculated by IIOSM. Taking the value of α throughout the interval (0,1], we correspondingly get access to the conservative risk value (R C ) and venture risk value (R V ). Selection of α, R C and R V is dependent on present technical conditions and risk preference of different people. To illustrate the procedure of IIOSM and fuzzy α-cut technique, we employ them respectively to analyze the flood risk in Sanshui District, located in the center of Guangdong province in China. The results, such as risk value estimations, as well as fuzzy expected values, i.e. R C and R V under the given α-cut level, can reflect the flood risk quite accurately. The outcomes of this research based on IIOSM and fuzzy α-cut technique offer new insights to carry out an efficient way for various flood protection strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Unconventional incidents bring great influence to human life, of which the most destructive is earthquake. Blood is a special resource for lives, especially in a big earthquake, in which there will be a sudden increase in demand for blood, therefore sufficient and safe blood supply is a huge challenge. In this paper, we propose an emergency blood supply scheduling model. Providing decision support for the scheduling of engineering emergency blood supply. We propose a multi-period location - allocation model, and give the heuristic algorithm based on Lagrangian relaxation. Finally, give an example case study in the context of Beijing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To meet the relief demands caused by frequent natural disasters and unusual emergencies, the government should utilize the power of society fully and establish a complete system of emergency relief reserves. Thus, this is a complicated task of system engineering. In this paper, we build the system of China relief reserve at first. On this basis, the application of various methods of emergency relief reserve is analyzed through bargaining model in game theory. We conclude that the emergency supplies reserve strategy in the form of ex-ante government and enterprise co-reserve is superior to the strategy in the form of ex-post emergency procurement and emergency production with fund limitation and high social cost. The comparison embodies in three aspects including quantity requirements, quality requirements and structural requirements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Fracture data available for one of the rock masses (limestone) in the dam site of Yujian River Reservoir were used to build and validate a stochastic 3-D fracture network model, and to perform a REV and equivalent continuum study in 3-D. A number of relations are developed in the paper between the rock mass mechanical parameters and fracture tensor components in 3-D. Based on the mechanical parameter values obtained in every 45° direction in 3-D, the principal parameter values, principal directions and tensors are developed for rock mass mechanical parameters to represent the REV block size properties. An incrementally linear elastic, orthotropic constitutive model is suggested to represent the equivalent continuum pre-failure mechanical behavior of the jointed rock mass by incorporating the effect of joint geometry network by the fracture tensor components. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The development of China''s animation should take some excellent artistic forms of our nation into consideration, only those animation works with national characteristics are precious. The designer should comprehend the essence of traditional cultures, combine the traditional artistic elements on modeling and can recreate. This paper creates animation images with Chinese culture characteristics through analyzing the Chu art characteristics and taking them as artistic reference of animation modeling. Its application in the FLASH software and some noticeable problems are considered; and the animation modeling has unique artistic charms and values. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) is one of the major scientific infrastructures, mainly using Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, to monitor crustal deformation in the Chinese mainland. In this paper, decade-long coordinate time series of 26 continuous GPS sites of CMONOC are analyzed for their noise content using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We study the noise properties of continuous GPS time series of CMONOC for the unfiltered, filtered solutions and also the common mode signals in terms of power law plus white noise model. In the spatial filtering, we remove for every time series a common mode error that was estimated from a modified stacking of position residuals from other sites within ∼1000km of the selected site. We find that the common mode signal in our network has a combination of spatially correlated flicker noise and a common white noise with large spatial extent. We demonstrate that for the unfiltered solutions of CMONOC continuous GPS sites the main colored noise is a flicker process, with a mean spectral index of ∼1. For the filtered solutions, the main colored noise is a general power law process, indicating that a major number of the filtered regional solutions have a combination of noise sources or local effects. The velocity uncertainties from CMONOC continuous GPS coordinate time series may be underestimated by factors of 8–16 if a pure white noise model is assumed. In addition, using a white plus flicker noise model, the median values of velocity errors for the unfiltered solutions are 0.16 (north), 0.17 (east) and 0.58 (vertical)mm/yr, and the median values for the filtered solutions are 0.09 (north), 0.10 (east) and 0.40 (vertical)mm/yr. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper aims to discuss innovative plan models for Chinese cities that are currently under rapid development. The study considers Complexity Theories of Cities as the theoretical basis and applies a holistic approach in city planning by recognizing the complex nature of city. It strives to integrate the diverse local structure in social and spatial aspects with the ambition and demand of city''s expansion. Digital sequence simulation is used as an innovative tool to represent local activities, promote interventions and predict possible self-organization process in the future. The study arrives at an open scenario, the feasible prospect. A conclusion is drawn to reflect the process and achievement and propose future works for this research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: According to the current situation of the development of the China''s highway environmental assessment and the existing problems, from the two aspects, the environment itself and people''s control over the environment,which effect the quality of highway environmental assessment tremendously, this paper analyses the main influence factors of the two aspects by using decision tree of mathematical thinking, and studies the application of equilibrium management model to highway environmental assessment. The result of the study shows that: the use of the number of comprehensive ability to assess the impact on environment of the highway engineering project, not only makes the sensitive area can be special treated, but also makes the optimized configuration of resources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Based on the absorption of some relevant research results, this paper establishes an evaluation model of the level of China''s low-carbon manufacturing and uses the factor analysis method for empirical research. Then it analyses the exist problems of China''s low-carbon manufacturing and puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper expounded the status quo of the development and utilization of mineral resources and the generation and development of circular economy. It revealed the connotation of mining circular economy and cleared the specific content of 3R principle. On this basis, it discussed the model of mining circular economy in enterprise, industry park and society level according to the present situation of mineral resources recycling in China. Then with the development of circular economy in enterprise level as an example to construct a system of circular economy at coal mine enterprise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: According to a majority of static evaluation and without common significance problems of regional environmental performance evaluation, evaluation indicator system of regional environmental performance is established in view of evaluation indicator system design principle, which is composed of environmental investment, operational performance, environmental condition and environmental profit. A dynamical model on regional environmental performance evaluation is put forward in this paper, which is combined with the basic idea of DEA and fuzzy integral assessment method. In order to provide the reasonable basis for local government to take corresponding measures to improve their environmental performance level, we carry through empirical analysis about regional environmental performance of 8 typical western regions in china and draw conclusion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Community health service is the key point of health reform in China. Based on pertinent studies, this paper constructed an indicator system for the community health service quality evaluation from such five perspectives as visible image, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and sympathy, according to service quality evaluation scale designed by Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry. A multilevel fuzzy synthetical evaluation model was constructed to evaluate community health service by fuzzy mathematics theory. The applicability and maneuverability of the evaluation indicator system and evaluation model were verified by empirical analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ecological indicator system (EIS) is widely used in ecosystem monitoring, assessment and management, building a bridge between scientists, environmental managers, and the general public. This paper explores a conceptual model for ecological indicator selection, and a quantitative selection model is formulated based on the conceptual model. The quantitative selection model is a typical zero-one type integer programming problem, and a binary-code genetic algorithm is proposed for solving it. Then the quantitative selection model and its solving method are applied to the Xiamen''s coastal ecosystem health framework which comprises 4 levels of ecosystem structure. In this case, the purpose is to reduce the indicator set to minimize overall management costs, and 19 indicators are discarded from the 54 candidate concrete indicators by our method. The selection modeling and its solving method are demonstrated to be a scientific and effective way for ecological indicator application. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Electrification level is a significant topic in energy and electric power planning. The paper sets up a LEAP model and designs three scenarios of economic growth of China, and simulates China''s electrification level by 2030. The results show that China''s electrification level has a larger increase potential in the mid-long term and rapid change of economic development pattern can help to increase the electrification level. By 2015, energy used for power generation will account for 43.3% of total primary energy consumption, while the ratio of electricity consumption to total final energy consumption will be about 23.1%; by 2020, the ratio of energy used for power generation to total primary energy consumption will increase to 44.9%, and the ratio of electricity consumption to final energy consumption will be about 25.6%; by 2030, the ratio of energy used for power generation to total primary energy consumption will be up to 47.2%, and the ratio of electricity consumption to total final energy consumption will reach about 28.9%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]