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• Two-component mixture distributions (TCMD) are used to model annual maximum floods. • Usage of flood timescale (FT) to classify distinct flood generating mechanisms. • Snowmelt-induced floods and rainfall-induced floods are identified in Norway. • The FT -based TCMD reduces uncertainty of design flood by 40% than traditional TCMD. The conventional flood frequency analysis typically assumes the annual maximum flood series (AMFS) result from a homogeneous flood population. However, actually AMFS are frequently generated by distinct flood generation mechanisms (FGMs), which are controlled by the interaction between different meteorological triggers (e.g., thunderstorms, typhoon, snowmelt) and properties of underlying surface (e.g., antecedent soil moisture and land-cover types). To consider the possibility of two FGMs in flood frequency analysis, researchers often use the two-component mixture distributions (TCMD) without explicitly linking each component distribution to a particular FGM. To improve the mixture distribution modeling in seasonally snow covered regions, an index called flood timescale (FT), defined as the ratio of the flood volume to peak value and chosen to reflect the relevant FGM, is employed to classify each flood into one of two types, i.e., the snowmelt-induced long-duration floods and the rainfall-induced short-duration floods, thus identifying the weighting coefficient of each component distribution beforehand. In applying the FT -based TCMD to model the AMFS of 34 watersheds in Norway, ten types of mixture distributions are considered. The design floods and associated confidence intervals are calculated using parametric bootstrap method. The results indicate that the FT -based TCMD model reduces the uncertainty in the estimation of design floods for high return periods by up to 40% with respect to the traditional TCMD. The improved predictive ability of the FT -based TCMD model is attributed to its explicit recognition of distinct generation mechanisms of floods, thereby being able to identify the weighting coefficient and FGM of each component distribution without optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• All GCMs except MIROC-ESM simulate a higher mean temperature in Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period than Little Ice Age (LIA) period, while simulated annual precipitation varies a lot in different GCMs and catchments. • No significant change of flood characteristics during the last millennium from ensemble-mean results. • In future, we will have an extraordinary shift in flood seasonality and generating processes, and flood frequency increase in most of the study catchments in Norway. • Climate projections represent the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in the projected changes in hydrological extremes for most of the catchments. With the recent warming trend over Europe and the Arctic, the Nordic regions have experienced more frequent and damaging extreme hydrological events which are anticipated to increase towards the end of the 21st century. Despite explicit trends, large variations have been observed across basins and regions when it comes to precipitation and floods hinting at a strong natural hydroclimatic variability that further complicates any assessment of potential future changes. In this study, we aim to better understand how climate variability links with the current extremes and future projections of floods in Norway in the context of the last millennium and the future. Specifically, we simulate over 1000 years (850–2099) daily discharge and floods at 34 catchments over five regions of Norway from the last millennium (including a warm period and a cold period; 850–1849) to the end of the 21st century by an ensemble model-chain method including four global climate models (GCMs), two bias-correction methods and two hydrological models. The modelling results show (i) all GCMs except MIROC-ESM simulate a higher mean temperature in Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period than Little Ice Age (LIA) period, while simulated annual precipitation varies a lot in different GCMs and catchments, (ii) no significant change of flood characteristics during the last millennium from ensemble-mean results, (iii) in future, we will have an extraordinary shift in flood seasonality and generating processes, and flood frequency increase in most of the study catchments in Norway, and (iv) climate projections represent the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in the projected changes in hydrological extremes for most of the catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]