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It is widely known that governance is central to the successful implementation of sustainable development policies and measures. Yet, there is a paucity of research which explore the links between governance and sustainability. This paper attempts to address this research need by providing an analysis of the role of governance in enabling – and to some extent – fostering a transition towards sustainable societies. A set of indicators for assessing the capacity for and willingness and commitment to transition to a more sustainable society is presented, enabling identification of direction of change. This paper presents the results of a study, in the context of which sustainability governance has been comparatively investigated in a sample of European countries with, by methodological purpose, very different economic, environmental, political and social conditions (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland). Lessons learnt and examples of good practice – which may be replicable elsewhere-are outlined. For instance, it is discussed that limited knowledge about sustainable development amongst municipal development planners and decision-makers, deficiencies in policy integration, intersectoral cooperation, municipality and stakeholder cooperation and urban management practices are major reasons for weak governance practices in sustainable development. Furthermore, some recommendations on the role of sustainability governance are made, so as to allow the integration of the principles of governance into sustainability practice and hence provide a more general basis upon which a transition towards sustainable societies may become a reality in different types of European countries and societies. The scientific value of this paper lies in identifying opportunities for integrating principles of governance into sustainability practice, as well as outlining the basis for sustainability transitions, providing a general picture of required policy measures. The paper offers a unique comparative analysis of sustainability governance in the Baltic Sea countries, outlining some of the challenges in sustainability governance in the Baltic Sea region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the development of sea basin maritime spatial planning (MSP) through the concerted efforts of several coastal nations based on the case of the Baltic Sea Region. Additionally, the readiness of Poland to assume its place within the existing sea-basin planning system is analyzed since Poland, as one of the last countries in the region to do so, announced the official commencement of MSP on November 18, 2013. The paper analyzes the progress of MSP in the Baltic Sea Region and discusses the question of the interplay between planning efforts executed nationally and the need to take into consideration much broader sea-basin contexts and perspectives. The conclusions drawn at the end of the paper explain how macro-regional MSP systems influence planning efforts in individual countries and how they might alleviate barriers that are typically encountered in the initial stages of MSP development at national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Freight transport in urban areas is still not well understood and there is no methodology aimed at the analysis and planning of such areas. To achieve urban sustainability, new models for the management of urban freight movements are needed, in which local authorities play a pro-active role. The aim of this paper is to contribute to lay the groundwork for designing strategies to overcome the challenges involved in sustainable urban freight transport. This paper is based on a multiple-case study analysing the current state of urban freight transport and current planning practices in cities around the Baltic Sea. While the cities differ in size, economy, and political and cultural frameworks, the transport sector plays a strong role in all cities. In-depth freight interviews with public and private stakeholders were conducted and complemented with several holistic interview sessions and document analysis. Potentials and shortcomings in urban freight transport planning are presented and the results show that freight transport is increasingly important for regional competitiveness while freight traffic is a growing threat for urban sustainability. In turn, the urban context is a barrier for efficient freight operations. However, both local authorities and transport operators neglect the problems that arise from freight in urban areas. An overall awareness is needed to understand that a deeper integration of freight transport and urban sustainability strategies can be beneficial for both the efficiency of freight transport networks and for local sustainability. City authorities need more logistics competence to facilitate the required integration between private and public actors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Scenario methods can be used to cope with future uncertainties by envisioning plausible futures and identifying paths to reach desirable targets. The objective of this paper is to develop novel proposals revealing generalised dynamics on "HOW" the different normative recommendations can work under different exploratory scenarios. Previous literature has focused more on developing methods for integrating normative and exploratory scenarios than on theorising dynamics of the HOW question. We examine this theoretical question via a case study on potential futures of use and governance of Baltic herring catch. The case study: 1) develops recommendations on how the use of Baltic herring as food can be increased based on a participatory backcasting workshop with fisheries experts; 2) identifies four exploratory scenarios on the future of Baltic fisheries governance based on a literature review; 3) assesses how the recommendations work under four alternative plausible futures. We identify and discuss six generalised dynamics answering the HOW question. Together, these stress the need to analyse simultaneously multiple drivers, stakeholders, exploratory scenarios, normative recommendations, and synergies and frictions between recommendations. This work contributes to capacities to cope with future changes and proactively develop practical means to make our world more sustainable. Highlights • Baltic herring can function as a sustainable protein source in the future. • Methodologies integrating normative and exploratory scenarios needed • Theory to understand HOW normative goals behave across futures • Multiple drivers, stakeholders, scenarios and goals must be looked simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper aims to increase understanding on Russia's governance of the Baltic Sea environment in general, and the drivers and constraints of Russia's participation in the HELCOM cooperation in particular. The drivers and constraints of Russian implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan are analyzed as a case study. The findings indicate that the main regulatory framework is in place but financing is still inadequate. While the main drivers of implementation of the BSAP relate to the physical factors, such as poor condition of the wastewater treatment facilities, the main constraints of the implementation are economic and politico-administrative in character. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper will focus on the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS), as one of several forums for intergovernmental cooperation in the Baltic Sea Area. It will primarily discuss the origin, status, organisation, tasks and relevance of the CBSS. This will be done in comparison with the Arctic and Barents Councils, two similar organisations in the North. It will consider the broader context of Baltic Sea Area governance focusing on other institutionalised forms of cooperation in this area, including the EU and the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM). The nature of the CBSS as a 'soft organisation', in other words an organisation that owes its existence to 'soft law' instruments which are not legally binding under public international law, will be highlighted. This article asks the question to what extent does this 'soft' nature of the CBSS have consequences for its organisation and functioning. Consideration will also be given to the specific role of the CBSS in Baltic Sea Area governance taking into account its 'soft' status, limited resources, broad range of tasks and activities and the political realities affecting Baltic Sea Area cooperation. Glossary and abbreviations AEPS, The Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy; B7, Baltic Seven Islands; Baltic TRAM, Transnational Research Access in the Macroregion; BASREC, Baltic Sea Region Energy Cooperation; BEAC, Barents Euro-Arctic Council; BEATA, Barents Euro-Arctic Pan-European Transport Area; BSC, Baltic Sea Commission; BSLF, Baltic Sea Labour Forum; BSPC, Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference; BSRBCC, Baltic Sea Region Border Control Cooperation; BSSC, Baltic Sea States Subregional Cooperation; CBSS, Council of the Baltic Sea States; CPMR, Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions; CPN, Civil Protection Network; CSCE, Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe; CSO, Committee of Senior Officials; EEA, European Economic Area; EGMP, Expert Group on Maritime Policy; EGYA, Expert Group on Youth Affairs; ENPRO, Network of Prosecutors on Environmental Crime; EUSBSR, EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region; HELCOM, Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, Helsinki Commission; Inter alia, among other things; IOM, International Organization for Migration; OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; OSCE, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe; PFI, Pilot Financial Initiative; PFS, Project Support Facility; Raison d'être, Reason of being; the purpose or claimed reason for the existence of something; SAO, Senior Arctic Official; UBC, Union of Baltic Cities; VASAB, Vision and Strategies around the Baltic Sea; WGE, Working Group on Environment; WGEC, Working Group on Economic Cooperation ; WGIP, Working Group of Indigenous Peoples [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) has evolved over many years and since its early beginnings there has been a growing urgency to develop transboundary planning. This is because the borders of marine ecosystems and the dynamics of some maritime activities, such as navigation, are not restricted to or bound by specific political and administrative borders. Cooperation across borders has been promoted by higher political levels for decades, and the implementation of cross-border consultation procedures is regulated by law. However, literature suggests that transboundary interaction is not an obvious step in the process of MSP and that today's practices have various weaknesses. This paper examines current practices and procedures of transboundary MSP interactions in the Baltic Sea Region to date. It brings together results from MSP process observations and interviews with marine planners in two recent research projects (Baltic SCOPE and BONUS BALTSPACE). Our results confirm the need for transboundary interaction and integration. The research also shows that there are differences in how MSP agencies interact with domestic and foreign stakeholders. Furthermore, formal transboundary consultations often seem to be limited to topics of the environment and health, and to the stakeholders responsible in these realms. The results include a variety of ways to overcome these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the scope for simultaneously managing nutrient abatement and climate change mitigation in the Baltic Sea (BS) region through the implementation of a selection of measures. The analysis is undertaken using a cost-minimisation model for the entire BS region, the BALTCOST model. In the present research, the model has been extended to include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions effects, enabling us to analyse the trade-offs between cost-effective GHG and nutrient load reductions. We run the model for four different scenarios in order to compare the environmental and economic consequences of contrasting strategies: single environmental objective management versus joint implementation strategy. The results show that implementing land-based measures with a sole focus on water quality (to meet the HELCOM's 2013 Baltic Sea Action Plan nutrient abatement targets) can produce climate change mitigation co-benefits equivalent to 2.3% of the 2005 emission level (from agriculture and waste water combined) for the entirety of the BS region. More interestingly, a joint implementation strategy can deliver further climate change mitigation benefit (i.e. up to 5.4%) at a marginal cost that is comparable to mitigation costs reported by other studies for efficient technologies. All in all the results demonstrate that a joint strategy to improve water quality and to reduce climate change is economically beneficial. Our findings show that the cost and the outcome of the implementation vary between countries. This illustrates the need to develop a joint regional policy for water and climate regulation that fully considers the asymmetry in both the expected effects and cost distribution across the countries in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interest of the general public, especially young people, in ocean and coastal issues is crucial, and yet high school students often do not consider scientific careers to be attractive. Raising student awareness of careers in marine science is not only a task for educators, but for scientists engaged in marine research as well. This paper summarises the experience of three years of international science camp organized for 15–19 year old students from countries of the Baltic Sea region (Europe) and discusses international science camps as a platform for encouraging interest in marine science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU enlargement brought the Baltic Sea into the sphere of EU environmental policymaking, making the sea, with the exception of Russia, an EU inland sea. Yet, the state of the Baltic Sea environment is deteriorating at an alarming pace. This paper describes the evolution of the EU governance of the Baltic Sea environment, focussing on governance barriers. The findings demonstrate how the choice of analytical lens influences the construction of governance barriers and the respective intervention strategies. Such understanding can help policy practitioners in their search for successful measures to improve the governance situation in the Baltic Sea region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal floods are natural extreme phenomena that have rare occurrence and small duration. For reconstruction of different scenarios of these events synthetic cyclones can be used. In this paper, statistics-based approaches for synthetic cyclone creation are applied for reconstruction of coastal floods with rare occurrence in Saint-Petersburg. The model developed in the frame of this research is based on analysis and clusterization of historical 50-year dataset for cyclones over Baltic Sea. As a result, realistic pressure profile (RPP) model of cyclones with specified parameters was proposed. It can be used for reconstruction of historical coastal floods and estimation of potential flood parameters for different cases of cyclone movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of sustainable development issues requires the engagement of all stakeholders in decision-making processes, as well as developing tactics and strategies. The complexity of this task increases on regional and international levels, where a huge amount of interests intersect or even contradict each other. To develop proper policy measures towards sustainability, it is essential to use appropriate performance assessment. Regardless of the existence of some macro estimation methods, vast gaps in practical use still remain. In this paper, a set of methods for assessing the sustainability performance of countries is outlined and discussed. The main advantages and weaknesses of the prevalent approaches are considered. Using available statistical data from open sources, sustainability performance assessment in countries within the Baltic Sea Region in the years 2005–2010 is carried out according to different methods and discussed, thus obtaining the profile of sustainability performance for countries in the Baltic Sea Region. The results of the calculations may be used for sharing with communities, detecting sustainability gaps in the countries’ economies, substantiating national and regional sustainable development strategies, and analyzing the investment attractiveness of the given region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems are viewed as important sources of innovation. While contracts, rules, policies, and industrial standards have been identified as important for coordinating and aligning inter-firm relationships, tools for the collective, collaborative orchestration of ecosystems have yet to be fully identified and articulated by scholars. The core contribution of this paper, the authors contend, is that corporate foresight tools, as applied at the level of the ecosystem, have the potential to orchestrate ecosystems. To this end, the authors examine the practical use of corporate foresight tools, in this case, roadmapping and scenario planning, as employed by ECOPRODIGI, an Interreg Baltic Sea project designed to advance the EU's strategy for eco-efficient Sustainable Blue Economy in the Roll-on/Roll-off (Ro-Ro) shipping ecosystem. Results demonstrate how ecosystem-level foresight significantly differs from traditional foresight centered around a focal firm. Corporate foresight tools, as applied to an ecosystem: 1) Target a diverse set of ecosystem actors beyond the segment's focal firm, including complementary firms, investors, and non-market actors; 2) Engage ecosystem actors, rather than only the focal firm, in shared strategy development based on a diverse mix of foresight tools; and 3) serve to orient and reify the ecosystem by charting the collective anticipation of innovations, policies, etc., in a shared set of future options. In the end, the authors find that corporate foresight tools operate as constitutive elements of ecosystems, that is, the tools help enact the ecosystem not as an abstract concept but as a shared, lived reality. • Tools for collaborative orchestration of ecosystems have yet to be fully articulated by scholars. • Corporate foresight tools, as applied at the level of the ecosystem, have the potential to orchestrate ecosystems. • Applied methods in the case include roadmapping, horizon scanning, innovation and policy forecasting, and scenario planning. • In practice, corporate foresight anchors, populates, appendicizes, repositions, and stress-tests business ecosystems. • Corporate foresight enacts the ecosystem not as an abstract concept, but as a shared, lived reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Vistula River, rich with sea trout ( Salmo trutta m. trutta L.) is the longest river in Poland, flowing into the southern Baltic Sea, with its population sustained mainly by enhancement programmes. The population source was declined and the proportion of Vistula winter and summer sea trout stocks existing in the river was drastically changed over a few decades. This paper is the first detailed genetic study of stocks of the species in the river. Five samples representing wild winter (1971), enhanced winter (2010/11) and summer (2003), and hatchery winter (2003) sea trout stocks were analysed. Twelve microsatellite loci were employed to investigate long-term and seasonal genetic differentiation affected by strong anthropogenic activities and thence to assist fish stock management in the Vistula River. The genetic structure of past and current stocks was observed. The substructure of the sea trout stocks, showing different spawning behaviour, was also exhibited. The drop of private alleles and bottleneck effect were noted, pointing the decrease of Vistula sea trout genetic sources in last 40 years. The pronounced differentiation (pairwise Fst values from 0.024 to 0.057) and high full-siblings share (68%) recorded for the hatchery stock, being the only source for supplementary stocking of winter sea trout stock, imply that this source should be used with caution and action to improve, and subsequently maintain, conditions for natural spawning should be prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic changes will influence the possibilities for agricultural production (e.g. longer growing season), agricultural management practices (e.g. changes in tillage, fertilization, increased use of fungicides) and runoff conditions, and thereby the losses of nutrients from agricultural fields to the environment. Nitrogen (N) is of particular interest in the Baltic Sea region because of its adverse effects on water quality. This paper gives an overview of the expected climatic changes in the Nordic–Baltic region, and the possible effects of these changes on runoff and N losses. Downscaled climate scenarios are used as a basis for evaluating the potential effects of climate change on hydrology, runoff and N losses. Examples from selected catchments in Nordic–Baltic water quality monitoring programmes, including data from extreme events, are presented and used for an assessment of the required adaptations. The analysis shows that there is a strong relationship between annual precipitation and runoff, and between runoff and N loss. The seasonality of precipitation, runoff and N loss indicate high losses outside the growing season. With climate change, increased precipitation is expected to occur mainly outside the growing season – in September–March – and result in increased runoff and thereby increased N losses. Existing data show that extreme events of precipitation have occurred in all seasons during the monitoring period, and have caused high runoff and high losses of N. With the expected increases in N losses, there is an urgent need for efficient measures to reduce N losses in order to fulfil the requirements of e.g. the EU Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) and the Nitrates Directive and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term monitoring data from catchments with relatively uniform land use is important in order to cover management needs such as implementation of various EU Directives. This paper in a uniform fashion examines the temporal trends in nitrogen (N) concentrations and losses from agricultural catchments in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Thirty-five (35) catchments (range 0.1–33 km 2 ) in Norway (9), Denmark (5), Sweden (8), Finland (4), Estonia (3), Latvia (3) and Lithuania (3) were selected for this study. The longest time series were 23 years (1988–2010), while the shortest one was 10 years (2002–2011). The monthly nitrogen concentration and loss data series were tested for statistical trends ( p < 0.05; two-sided test) using the partial Mann–Kendall (PMK) test with stream discharge as an explanatory variable. The study results show a large variation in nitrogen concentrations and losses among the studied catchments, with a large interannual variability in all catchments. For nitrogen losses, 11 statistically significant trends were detected. Nine of these were downward (four out of five Danish catchments; four out of eight in Sweden; one out of three in Finland). Upward trends were detected in two catchments (one in Estonia and one in Latvia). For nitrogen concentrations, 13 statistically significant trends were detected. 10 of these were downward. Among the 11 catchments that showed trends in nitrogen losses, nine catchments also showed statistically significant trends in the in-stream concentration series. In addition, three more Swedish catchments showed downward trends in the concentration series, and one Estonian catchment showed an upward trend. These results indicate that targeted strategies towards reduced nitrogen losses from agricultural land (as in the case of Denmark and Sweden) may significantly improve nutrient surface water quality in small agricultural catchments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) transport and retention in streams are largely determined by hydrological characteristics (e.g. water runoff, baseflow index (BFI) and flashiness index (FI)) in the catchment. It is important to know the impact of catchment characteristics such as land use, subsurface drainage intensity, elevation difference and catchment size on the hydrological properties and N loss. This paper presents a comparison of the magnitude and variation of the baseflow and flashiness in streams in relation to the selected geographical and drainage characteristics for thirty studied agriculture dominated catchments in the Nordic and Baltic countries and the effects it can have on N loss. The analysis included measured data from the total discharge and nitrogen loss at the catchment outlets for the period from the beginning of 1993 to 2011, although there is variation in the length of periods among catchments and countries. The study revealed that the rate of subsurface drainage systems and drainage intensity (given as lateral tile drainage spacing) were statistically significant explanatory variables in explaining differences in hydrological characteristics between catchments. There is a considerable increase in the FI, almost by a factor of three, when using hourly discharge values instead of average daily values, indicating that large diurnal variation in discharge can occur, especially at higher FI values. The analysis also showed that there is a negative relation between FI and the BFI, i.e. a high BFI corresponding to a low FI and vice versa. In general, there seems to be a positive relationship between long-term average runoff and N loss, with the highest runoff and N loss occurring in the Norwegian catchments. However, flow path can have a significant influence on the N loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper are analysed deformations of ancient churches in Vilnius and in Koenigsberg (Kaliningrad) and possibilities for stabilization of its grounds with grouting. Foundations of both Cathedrals were constructed on weak soils. Deformations of Vilnius Cathedral foundations are reflected by cracks in structures. Underpinning with bored piles of Vilnius cathedral in years 1931–1937 improved situation. Settlements of Koenigsberg cathedral reached approximately 2.0 m during 6 centuries. This cathedral is not underpinned but rebuild after Second World War demolitions. Results of laboratory tests with sandy soils from Vilnius Cathedral stabilized with solutions of organic polymers are given. Comparison was done of properties of conventional polymer resins with properties of modified resins. Such properties of solution of resins have been investigated: density, viscosity, pH (alkalinity level), evaporation of components from solution in water and air. During the next stage of investigations properties of alluvial medium dense sand stabilized with conventional and modified resins have been compared. Such properties of reinforced soil have been investigated: compressed strength, evaporation of formaldehyde from stabilized soil, time dependent strength of soil in air and water medium. Addition of active components to polymer resins increase density and pH of solution of organic polymers, decrease viscosity. Compressed strength of sands from Vilnius Cathedral stabilized with polymer resins is time dependent and increased from 2.2 MPa after 7 days to 2.9 MPa after 3 months. 12 to 19 times less formaldehyde is liberated into the air from soil stabilized with the modified resins than from the soil stabilized with the unmodified resins. Test with stabilization for peaty and clay soils from Kaliningrad Cathedral was unsuccessful. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The EU Water Framework Directive introduces the principle of integrated river basin management, incorporating both the idea of spatial fit between ecosystems and social systems and a requirement to integrate water management across scales and sectors. In designing their implementation setups, member states must therefore address both the roles of different institutional actors and the interplay among institutions. In this paper, we will explore strengths and weaknesses of different institutional arrangements for integrated water management through a comparative analysis of river basin management planning processes in six countries around the Baltic Sea. We use theories on multi-level governance, regime interplay and institutional effectiveness. We find that, in most cases, central governments have played a dominant role in the formulation of river basin management plans, while local influence has been somewhat limited. The tight procedural deadlines of the directive appear to have pushed for more centralisation than originally intended by the countries. But the analysis also shows that interplay mechanisms such as norms, ideas and incentives do promote effective institutional interplay and may serve to overcome coordination problems of implementation structures. Moreover, it is expected that institutional interplay will improve over time resulting in more integrated management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: One objective of the European Union (EU)''s Water Framework Directive (WFD: Directive 2000/60/EC) is for all European surface waters to achieve ‘good status’ by 2015. In support of this objective, the EU has facilitated an intercalibration exercise to ensure harmonized definitions of the status of water bodies, reflecting the deviation of their properties (mainly biotic assemblages) from a minimally disturbed state, termed the “reference condition”. One of the major challenges of the WFD has been to find common approaches for defining reference conditions and to define the level of anthropogenic intervention allowed in reference sites. In this paper we describe how river reference sites were selected in the Central-Baltic region of Europe. A list of pressure criteria was provided and 14 Member States (MSs) categorized each criterion according to the method (i.e. measured, field inspection, etc.) used for reference site screening. Additionally, reference land-use and water-chemistry thresholds were agreed among countries in order to base reference site selection on objective criteria. For land-use criteria, a reference threshold and a rejection threshold were established. Sites with all criteria below the reference threshold were considered to be reference sites; sites having most criteria below the reference threshold and only some parameters between the reference and rejection threshold were “possible reference sites”. These sites were retained only after carefully checking the cumulative effects of the pressures using local expertise, and a posteriori water-chemistry evaluation was necessary. In general, the most widespread method for defining a reference site was the measurement of pressures, followed by field inspections and expert judgment. However, some major pressures (e.g. hydromorphological alteration) were evaluated in a number of different ways (e.g. measured, field inspection, expert judgment). Our meta-analyses reveal a need to reinforce standardization in the application of pressure criteria by Member States. The pressure criteria identified in this exercise should be refined and tested with biological data to help in the further validation of minimally disturbed sites (i.e. the WFD “reference condition”) and to provide a firm foundation for ecological status assessment. This in turn would ensure that there is pan-European comparability when evaluating the achievement of environmental objectives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The NANI/NAPI (net anthropogenic nitrogen/phosphorus input) Calculator Toolbox described in this paper is designed to address the consequences to Baltic Sea nutrient loads of the significant variation in agronomic practices and dietary preferences among European countries whose watersheds comprise the Baltic Sea basin. A primary objective of this work is to develop regional parameters and datasets for this budgeting tool. A previous version of the toolbox was applied to the entire contiguous United States to calculate NANI and its components (atmospheric N deposition, fertilizer N application, agricultural N fixation and N in net food and feed imports). Here, it is modified for application to the Baltic Sea catchments, where coastal watersheds from several countries are draining to international waters. A similar accounting approach is taken for calculating NAPI, which includes fertilizer P application, P in net food and feed imports and non-food use of P by human. Regional variation of NANI/NAPI parameters (agricultural fixation rates, human intake rates and livestock intake and excretion rates) are estimated, and their impact on the regional nutrient budget and the riverine nutrient flux is evaluated. There is a distinct north-to-south gradient in NANI and NAPI across the Baltic Sea catchments, and regional nutrient inputs are strongly related to riverine nutrient fluxes. Analysis of regional nutrient retention pattern indicates that, for some countries, compliance to the Baltic Sea Action Plan would imply enormous changes in the agricultural sector. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates a possible long term investment path for the Nordic energy system focussing on renewable energy in the supply sector and on hydrogen as the main fuel for transportation, covering up to 70% of all transport in 2050. The optimisation model Balmorel [Ravn H, et al. Balmorel: A model for analyses of the electricity and CHP markets in the Baltic Sea Region. www.Balmorel.com ; 2001. ] covering the Nordic energy system is used. The model has been expanded to include the modelling of hydrogen production technologies, storage and hydrogen power plants. The simulation shows that with an oil price at 100 $/barrel, a price at and the assumed penetration of hydrogen in the transport sector, it is economically optimal to cover more than 95% of the primary energy consumption for electricity and district heat by renewables in 2050. When the transport sector is converted as assumed 65% of the transportation relies on renewable energy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]