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Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated. The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results. Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk. The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces. In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%. The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate extremes have attracted widespread attention for their threats to the natural environment and human society. Based on gauged daily precipitation from 1963 to 2016 in four subregions of the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), four extreme precipitation indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were employed to assess the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation events. Results show the following: (1) Max one-day precipitation amount (RX1day), max consecutive five-day precipitation amount (RX5day), precipitation on very wet days (R95p), and number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm) showed increasing trends in four subregions except for the decline of R10mm in the southeastern and RX5day in the midsouthern. Extreme precipitation has become more intense and frequent in most parts of the JRB. (2) In space, the four extreme precipitation indices increased from the northwest to the southeast. Temporal trends of extreme precipitation showed great spatial variability. It is notable that extreme precipitation increased apparently in higher elevation areas. (3) The abrupt change of extreme precipitation in the northwestern, midsouthern, and southeastern mainly appeared in the late 1990s and the 2000s. For the midnorthern, abrupt change mainly occurred in the late 1980s. This study is meaningful for regional climate change acquaintance and disaster prevention in the JRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]